Input Parameters for Models of Energetic Electrons Fluxes at the Geostationary Orbit

The results of cross-correlation analysis between electrons fluxes (with energies of > 0.6MeV, > 2.0 MeV and > 4.0MeV), geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are shown in the paper. It is determined that the electron fluxes are controlled not only by the geomagnetic indices, but also by the solar wind parameters, and the solar wind velocity demonstrates the best relation with the electron fluxes. Numerical value of the relation efficiency of external parameters with the highly energetic electrons fluxes shows a periodicity. It is presented here the preliminary results of daily averaged electrons fluxes forecast for a day ahead on the basis of the model of neuron networks.     

Survey on the Magnetic Structure of the Neutral Sheets in Earth's Magnetotail

Based on the multipoint magnetic observations of Cluster from 2001 to 2004, the magnetic field structure in magnetotail Neutral Sheet （NS） is statistically surveyed. The results are as follows. In NS, a cubic function is selected to reveal the relation between y （GSM） and positional parameter z. The relation between y and magnetic field values indicates that the magnetic field is weak at midnight region and strengthens gradually at the duskside and dawnside. The relation between y and curvature radius is expressed by a quadratic function. And R_c of flattened CS is less than that of the normal CS. B_y determines the orientation of MFLs' configuration. The polar angle of the curvature vector is affected by the NS configuration. In addition, the correlation between the polar angle of the curvature vector and z is higher. The polar angle of the normal of the osculating plane is uncertain in the center area. The relation between the azimuthal angles of the curvature vector （the normal of the osculating plane） and y is negatively correlated. An empirical model applied to yz plane of the three-dimensional structure of the magnetic field lines in the NS are developed, and it is represented as a function of the positional parameter y. Finally, the current density is also statistically surveyed.      

曲靖地区电离层多参数变化特征

利用电波环境观测网曲靖站电离层垂直探测仪数据（2008－2018）,分析了该站电离层多参数（包括f_min,f₀E_s,h'E_s,f₀E,f₀F₁,f₀F₂,h'F,MUF(3000)F₂等）随太阳活动、季节、地方时的变化特征。结果表明,f_min,f₀E_s,h'E_s随太阳活动变化不明显,f₀E,f₀F₁,f₀F₂,h'F,MUF(3000)F₂与太阳活动变化具有相关性,f₀F₂经常发生日落增强现象,同时各自具有独立性;与拉萨、乌鲁木齐地区f₀F₂,h'F,f₀E_s变化特征对比,发现地方时与月份变化趋势相同,但是极值出现的位置有所不同,这可能与各地区的地理纬度和地形等因素有关;h'F夜间大于白天,在日出日落时段有突然上升现象,冬季的h'F一般都小于其他季节;MUF(3000)F₂与f₀F₂的变化特征相似,白天值高于夜晚值,春秋分季高于夏冬季,太阳活动高年日落后MUF(3000)F₂一直维持较高值并持续到03:00－04:00 LT。      

卡尔曼滤波和自相关分析方法短期预报电离层f0F2的比较

电离层参数f₀F₂的预报是电离层研究的一个重要方向.本文选取2011年北京、长春、青岛和苏州四个常规观测站的f₀F₂数据,分别采用卡尔曼滤波、自相关分析法和国际参考电离层模型（IRI）对f₀F₂实施短期预报（提前1h预报）,并通过与实际观测数据的对比,对三种方法预报f₀F₂的性能进行了比较.研究结果表明,在磁平静时期,采用卡尔曼滤波方法进行f₀F₂预报的均方误差为0.532MHz,相对误差8.11%,比国际电离层参考模型的均方误差和相对误差分别降低1.47MHz和14.58%;采用自相关分析方法进行f₀F₂预报的均方根误差为0.967MHz,相对误差11.46%,比国际电离层参考模型的均方误差和相对误差分别降低1.035MHz和11.23%.比较结果说明二者对f₀F₂短期预报的精度相对于国际电离层参考模型均有大幅提升.对磁暴期间三种方法的预测性能做了进一步比较,试验结果表明卡尔曼滤波短期预报性能总体上优于自相关分析法,这为f₀F₂短期预报的方法选择提供了一定指导.      

Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.     

Hemispheric Distribution of Lower-band Chorus Waves Observed by Van Allen Probes

Whistler mode chorus waves are important electromagnetic emissions due to their dual roles in acceleration and loss processes of Earth’s radiation belt electrons. A detailed global survey of lower-band chorus is performed using EMFISIS data from Van Allen Probes in near-equatorial orbits. In addition to the confirmation of the positive correlation of chorus wave intensities to geomagnetic activity and dayside-nightside distribution asymmetry of wave amplitude and occurrence probability, the analysis results find that in statistics lower-band chorus emissions exhibit higher wave occurrence rates and larger normalized peak wave frequencies in the magnetically northern hemisphere but somehow stronger peak wave intensities in the magnetically southern hemisphere. While overall the differences between the two magnetically hemispheric distributions tend to be not significant, it is important to establish the magnetically hemispheric distribution profiles of lowerband chorus with respect to L-shell, magnetic local time, and geomagnetic latitude for improved understanding of chorus-induced dynamics of radiation belt electrons.      

Development of New Capabilities Using Machine Learning for Space Weather Prediction

With the development of space exploration and space environment measurements, the numerous observations of solar, solar wind, and near Earth space environment have been obtained in last 20 years. The accumulation of multiple data makes it possible to better use machine learning technique, which has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications in last decades, for developing new approaches and models in space weather investigation and prediction. In this paper, the efforts on the forecasting methods for space weather indices, events, and parameters using machine learning are briefly introduced based on the study works in recent years. These investigations indicate that machine learning, especially deep learning technique can be used in automatic characteristic identification, solar eruption prediction, space weather forecasting for solar and geomagnetic indices, and modeling of space environment parameters.      

Periodic Variations of Drag Coefficient for the ANDE Spherical Satellites During its Lifetime

A drag coefficient (C_D) inversion method is introduced to study the variations of the drag coefficient for orbital satellites with spherical geometry. Drag coefficients of the four micro satellites in the Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment (ANDE) are compiled out with this new method. The Lomb-Scargle Periodgram (LSP) analysis of the four ANDE satellites' C_D series has shown that there are obvious 5, 7, 9, and 27 days' period in those data. Interesting results are found through comparing the LSP analysis with series of the daily solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F_10.7 index), the Ap index, and the daily averaged solar wind speed at 1AU. All series in the same time interval have an obvious period of about 27 days, which has already been explained as the association with the 27 days' solar rotation. The oscillating periods less than 27 days are found in series of C_D, Ap and solar wind speed at 1AU, e.g., the 5, 7, 9 days period. However, these short periods disappeared in the time series of F_10.7 index. The same periodicities of 5, 7, 9 days in Ap and solar wind are presented at the same time interval during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. While in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, these short oscillations are not so obvious as that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23. These results provide definite evidence that the C_D variations with period of 5, 7 and 9 days are produced by a combination of space weather effects caused by the solar wind and geomagnetic activity.      

Development of Operational Space Weather Prediction Models

In this report, we summarize the needs of space weather models, and recommend that developing operational prediction models, rather than transitioning from research to operation, is a more feasible and critical way for space weather services in the near future. Operational models for solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices, magnetopause, plasma sheet energetic electrons, inner boundary of ion plasma sheet, energetic electrons in outer radiation belt, and thermospheric density at low Earth orbit, have been developed and will be introduced briefly here. Their applications made a big progress in space weather services during the past two years in China.      

Effect of ion dynamics on the evolution of electron phase-space holes

The evolution of two-dimensional (2D) electron phase-space holes (electron holes) has been previously investigated with electrostatic Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulations, which neglect ion dynamics. The electron holes are found to be unstable to the transverse instability, and their evolution is determined by the combined action between the transverse instability and the stabilization by the background magnetic field. In this paper, the effect of ion dynamics on the evolution of an electron hole is studied. In weakly magnetized plasma (Ω_e < ω_pe, where Ω_e and ω_pe are electron gyrofrequency and plasma frequency, respectively), the electron hole is still unstable to the transverse instability. However, it evolves a little faster and is destroyed in a shorter time when ion dynamics is considered. In strongly magnetized plasma (Ω_e > ω_pe), the electron hole is broken due to the lower hybrid waves, and its evolution is much faster.      

Modelling of Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Ionosphere of East Asia

This paper presents simulated results of the ionospheric behavior during few geomagnetic storms,which were occurred in the different seasons. The numerical model for ionosphere-plasmasphere coupling was used to interpret the observed variation of ionosphere structure. Reasons why the positive storms are dominant in the winter whereas the negative ones are dominant in the summer season present the special interest for the mid-latitude ionosphere. A theoretical analysis of the processes controlling the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storms has showed a good agreement between the simulated results and measurements, as well as the crucial role of the neutral composition variations to fit the calculated and the observed ionospheric parameters.      

基于地磁坐标和Kriging技术的高纬地区f0F2重构方法

为能够在高纬区域获取高精度电离层参数特性结果,提出了基于地磁坐标的高纬度区域电离层F₂层临界频率（f₀F₂）的重构方法.该方法确定了基于地磁坐标的变异函数,通过求解改进Kriging方程得出估计值.方法的确定取决于对2种坐标系、2类电离层距离计算方法以及尺度因子的选取.通过对俄罗斯6个垂直探测站在太阳活动高年（2013年）和低年（2017年）的f₀F₂历史观测数据使用月中值进行交叉验证,证明了引入地磁坐标和利用球面距离计算方法对高纬度地区进行重构能够达到最优效果.相比现有方法,其整体标准误差和绝对误差均有所降低.上述研究证实了该方法的有效性,对电子信息系统的可用频率预测以及通信效能保障具有重要意义.      

Variations of Thermosphere Density Based on Joint Analysis of In-Situ Measurement Data From Shenzhou Spacecrafts

Based on the measurements made by Atmospheric Density Detectors (ADDs) onboard Chinese spacecraft Shenzhou 2-4, the variations of thermosphere density are revealed. During the quiet period, the density at spacecraft altitude of 330～410km exhibited a dominant diurnal variation, with high value on dayside and low value on nightside. The ratio of the diurnal maximum density to the minimum ranged from 1.7 to 2.0. The ratio shows a positive correlation with the level of solar activity and a negative correlation with the level of geomagnetic activity. When a geomagnetic disturbance comes, the atmospheric density at the altitude of 330～410km displayed a global enhancement. For a strong geomagnetic disturbance, the atmospheric density increased by about 56%, and reached its maximum about 6～7 hours after the geomagnetic disturbance peak. The density asymmetry was also observed both in the southern and northern hemisphere during the geomagnetic disturbance peak.      

A 3rd Order WENO GLM-MHD Scheme for Magnetic Reconnection

A new numerical scheme of 3rd order Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO)type for 2.5D mixed GLM-MHD in Cartesian coordinates is proposed. The MHD equations are modified by combining the arguments as by Dellar and Dedner et al to couple the divergence constraint with the evolution equations using a Generalized Lagrange Multiplier (GLM). Moreover, the magnetohydrodynamic part of the GLM-MHD system is still in conservation form. Meanwhile, this method is very easy to add to an existing code since the underlying MHD solver does not have to be modified. To show the validation and capacity of its application to MHD problem modelling,interaction between a magnetosonic shock and a denser cloud and magnetic reconnection problems are used to verify this new MHD code. The numerical tests for 2D Orszag and Tang's MHD vortex,interaction between a magnetosonic shock and a denser cloud and magnetic reconnection problems show that the third order WENO MHD solvers are robust and yield reliable results by the new mixed GLM or the mixed EGLM correction here even if it can not be shown that how the divergence errors are transported as well as damped as done for one dimensional ideal MHD by Dedner et al.      

Using Back Propagation Neural Network Method to Forecast Daily Indices of Solar Activity F10.7

The solar 10.7 cm radio flux，F_10.7，a measure of the solar radio flux per unit frequency at a wavelength of 10.7 cm，is a key and serviceable index for monitoring solar activities.The accurate prediction of F_10.7 is of significant importance for short-term or long-term space weather forecasting. In this study，we apply Back Propagation （BP） neural network technique to forecast the daily F_10.7 based on the trial data set of F_10.7 from 1980 to 2001.Results show that this technique is better than the other prediction techniques for short-term forecasting，such as Support Vector Regression method.      

Main Science Results from Chinese Meridian Project(2014—2015)

The Chinese Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project (Meridian Project for short) is a ground-based geospace monitoring chain in China. It consists of a chain of 15 ground-based observatories located roughly along 120°E longitude and 30°N latitude. Each observatory is equipped with multiple instruments to measure key parameters such as the baseline and time-varying geomagnetic field, the middle and upper atmosphere and ionosphere from about 20 to 1000km. This project started collecting data in 2012. Here a brief overview of the Chinese Meridian Project is given, and most recent science results mainly in the ionospheric and atmospheric studies are presented.      

SZ-5 Cabin's Height Changes during Three Super-storms in 2003

In this work, the daily height variations of SZ-5 (Shenzhou-5) cabin from 22 October to 28 November in 2003 are analyzed, which includes the period of the Halloween Storm and the Great November Storm. The significant orbital decays have been observed at the end of October and in late November due to the great solar flares and the severe geomagnetic storms. According to the equation of the air-drag-force on a spacecraft and the SZ-5 orbital decay information, the relative daily average thermospheric density changes during the three 2003 super-storms are derived and the results are compared with the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRLMSISE-00). The results show that the daily average thermospheric density (at the altitude of SZ-5, about 350 km) in storm time enhances to approximately 200% as much as that in the quiet time but the empirical model may somewhat underestimate the average thermospheric density changes and the daily contributions of geomagnetic storms to the density enhancements during these severe space weather events.      

Mid-Latitude Pc1, 2 Pulsations Induced by Magnetospheric Compression in the Maximum and Early Recovery Phase of Geomagnetic Storms

We investigate the properties of interplanetary inhomogeneities generating long-lasting mid-latitude Pc1, 2 geomagnetic pulsations. The data from the Wind and IMP 8 spacecrafts, and from the Mondy and Borok midlatitude magnetic observatories are used in this study. The pulsations under investigation develop in the maximum and early recovery phase of magnetic storms. The pulsations have amplitudes from a few tens to several hundred pT andlast more than seven hours. A close association of the increase (decrease) in solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) with the onset or enhancement (attenuation or decay) of these pulsations has been established. Contrary to high-latitude phenomena, there is a distinctive feature of the interplanetary inhomogeneities that are responsible for generation of long-lasting mid-latitude Pc1, 2. It is essential that the effect of the quasi-stationary negative Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field on the magnetosphere extends over 4 hours. Only then are the Psw pulses able to excite the above-mentioned type of mid-latitude geomagnetic pulsations. Model calculations show that in the cases under study the plasmapause can form in the vicinity of the magnetic observatory. This implies that the existence of an intense ring current resulting from the enhanced magnetospheric convection is necessary for the Pc1, 2 excitation. Further, the existence of the plasmapause above the observation point (as a waveguide) is necessary for long-lasting Pc1 waves to arrive at the ground.      

TanSat Mission Achievements: from Scientific Driving to Preliminary Observations

The Chinese global carbon dioxide monitoring satellite (TanSat) was successfully launched in December 2016 and has completed its on-orbit tests and calibration. TanSat aims to measure the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide column-averaged dry air mole fractions (X_CO2) with a precision of 4 ppm at the regional scale, and further to derive the CO₂ global and regional fluxes. Progress toward these objectives is reviewed and the first scientific results from TanSat measurements are presented. During the design phase, Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) on TanSat measurements performed prior to launch measurements using a nadir and a glint alternative mode when considering the balance of stable measurements and reduces the flux uncertainty (64%). The constellation measurements of two satellites indicate an extra 10% improvement in flux inversion if the satellite measurements have no bias and similar precision. The TanSat on-orbit test indicates that the instrument is stable and beginning to produce X_CO2 products. The preliminary TanSat measurements have been validated with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) measurements and have inter-compared with OCO-2 measurements in an overlap measurement.      

A Simulation of the Mid-and Low-latitude Ionospheric Electric Fields

A theoretical model of ionospheric electric fields at mid- and low-latitudes is developed. In the geomagnetic dipolar coordinate system, the ionospheric dynamo equations were solved, and the ionospheric electric potential and electric field were derived respectively. Major parameters for the model inputs, such as the neutral winds, the densities and temperatures of electron, ions and neutrals, are obtained from empirical models. The global ionospheric electrical potential and field at mid- and low-latitudes derived from our model are largely in agreement with the results presented by other authors and the empirical model. Using our model, it is found that the diurnal component of the HWM93 wind mainly contributed to the formation of the vertical electric field, while the semidiurnal component mainly contributed to the zonal electric field. Finally, by adjustment of the input F region winds and conductivities, most discrepancies between our model and the empirical one can be eliminated, and it is proved that the F region dynamo is the most significant contribution to the electric fields.