NASA's new Mars Exploration Program: the trajectory of knowledge

NASA's newly restructured Mars Exploration Program (MEP) is finally on the way to Mars with the successful April 7 launch of the 2001 Mars Odyssey Orbiter. In addition, the announcement by the Bush Administration that the exploration of Mars will be a priority within NASA's Office of Space Science further cements the first decade of the new millennium as one of the major thrusts to understand the "new" Mars. Over the course of the past year and a half, an integrated team of managers, scientists, and engineers has crafted a revamped MEP to respond to the scientific as well as management and resource challenges associated with deep space exploration of the Red Planet. This article describes the new program from the perspective of its guiding philosophies, major events, and scientific strategy. It is intended to serve as a roadmap to the next 10-15 years of Mars exploration from the NASA viewpoint. [For further details, see the Mars Exploration Program web site (URL): http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov]. The new MEP will certainly evolve in response to discoveries, to successes, and potentially to setbacks as well. However, the design of the restructured strategy is attentive to risks, and a major attempt to instill resiliency in the program has been adopted. Mars beckons, and the next decade of exploration should provide the impetus for a follow-on decade in which multiple sample returns and other major program directions are executed. Ultimately the vision to consider the first human scientific expeditions to the Red Planet will be enabled. By the end of the first decade of this program, we may know where and how to look for the elusive clues associated with a possible martian biological record, if any was every preserved, even if only as "chemical fossils."     

Phoenix--the first Mars Scout mission

NASA has initiated the first of a new series of missions to augment the current Mars Program. In addition to the systematic series of planned, directed missions currently comprising the Mars Program plan, NASA has started a series of Mars Scout missions that are low cost, price fixed, Principal [correction of Principle] Investigator-led projects. These missions are intended to provide an avenue for rapid response to discoveries made as a result of the primary Mars missions, as well as allow more risky technologies and approaches to be applied in the investigation of Mars. The first in this new series is the Phoenix mission which was selected as part of a highly competitive process. Phoenix will use the Mars 2001 Lander that was discontinued in 2000 and apply a new set of science objectives and mission objectives and will validate this soft lander architecture for future applications. This paper will provide an overview of both the Program and the Project.     

A complexity-based risk assessment of low-cost planetary missions: when is a mission too fast and too cheap?

Under constrained budgets and rigid schedules, NASA and industry have greatly increased their utilization of small satellites to conduct low-cost planetary investigations. Recent failed small planetary science spacecraft such as Mars Polar Lander (MPL) and Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO), and impaired missions such as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) have fueled the ongoing debate on whether NASA's “Faster, Better, Cheaper” (FBC) approach is working. Several noteworthy failures of earth-orbiting missions have occurred as well including Lewis and the Wide-field Infrared Experiment (WIRE). While recent studies have observed that FBC has resulted in lower costs and shorter development times, these benefits may have been achieved at the expense of lowering probability of success. One question remaining to be answered is when is a mission “too fast and too cheap” that it is prone to failure? This paper assesses NASA FBC missions in terms of a complexity index measured against development time and spacecraft cost. A comparison of relative failure rates of recent planetary and earth-orbiting missions are presented, and conclusions regarding dependence on system complexity are drawn.     

Mars scientific investigations as a precursor for human exploration.

In the past two years, NASA has begun to develop and implement plans for investigations on robotic Mars missions which are focused toward returning data critical for planning human missions to Mars. The Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander missions will mark the first time that experiments dedicated to preparation for human exploration will be carried out. Investigations on these missions and future missions range from characterization of the physical and chemical environment of Mars, to predicting the response of biology to the Mars environment. Planning for such missions must take into account existing data from previous Mars missions which were not necessarily focused on human exploration preparation. At the same time, plans for near term missions by the international community must be considered to avoid duplication of effort. This paper reviews data requirements for human exploration and applicability of existing data. It will also describe current plans for investigations and place them within the context of related international activities.     

A concept for NASA's Mars 2016 astrobiology field laboratory

The Mars Program Plan includes an integrated and coordinated set of future candidate missions and investigations that meet fundamental science objectives of NASA and the Mars Exploration Program (MEP). At the time this paper was written, these possible future missions are planned in a manner consistent with a projected budget profile for the Mars Program in the next decade (2007-2016). As with all future missions, the funding profile depends on a number of factors that include the exact cost of each mission as well as potential changes to the overall NASA budget. In the current version of the Mars Program Plan, the Astrobiology Field Laboratory (AFL) exists as a candidate project to determine whether there were (or are) habitable zones and life, and how the development of these zones may be related to the overall evolution of the planet. The AFL concept is a surface exploration mission equipped with a major in situ laboratory capable of making significant advancements toward the Mars Program's life-related scientific goals and the overarching Vision for Space Exploration. We have developed several concepts for the AFL that fit within known budget and engineering constraints projected for the 2016 and 2018 Mars mission launch opportunities. The AFL mission architecture proposed here assumes maximum heritage from the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). Candidate payload elements for this concept were identified from a set of recommendations put forth by the Astrobiology Field Laboratory Science Steering Group (AFL SSG) in 2004, for the express purpose of identifying overall rover mass and power requirements for such a mission. The conceptual payload includes a Precision Sample Handling and Processing System that would replace and augment the functionality and capabilities provided by the Sample Acquisition Sample Processing and Handling system that is currently part of the 2009 MSL platform.     

Human spaceflight and an asteroid redirect mission: Why?

The planning of human spaceflight programmes is an exercise in careful rationing of a scarce and expensive resource. Current NASA plans are to develop the new capability for human-rated launch into space to replace the Space Transportation System (STS), more commonly known as the Space Shuttle, combined with a heavy lift capability, and followed by an eventual Mars mission. As an intermediate step towards Mars, NASA proposes to venture beyond Low Earth Orbit to cis-lunar space to visit a small asteroid which will be captured and moved to lunar orbit by a separate robotic mission. The rationale for this and how to garner support from the scientific community for such an asteroid mission are discussed. Key points that emerge are that a programme usually has greater legitimacy when it emerges from public debate, mostly via a Presidential Commission, a report by the National Research Council or a Decadal Review of science goals etc. Also, human spaceflight missions need to have support from a wide range of interested communities. Accordingly, an outline scientific case for a human visit to an asteroid is made. Further, it is argued here that the scientific interest in an asteroid mission needs to be included early in the planning stages, so that the appropriate capabilities (here the need for drilling cores and carrying equipment to, and returning samples from, the asteroid) can be included.     

Revolutionary systems and technologies for missions to the outer planets

The Advanced Deep Space System Development Program is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA and is also called X2000. X2000 is organized to create advanced flight and ground systems for the exploration of the outer planets and beyond; it has been created to develop the engineering elements of flight and ground systems. Payloads will be developed by another team. Each X2000 delivery gets its requirements from a set of planned missions, or “mission customers”.The X2000 First Delivery Project supports missions to the Sun (to 4 solar radii), Europa (looking for a liquid ocean), Mars (in support of several Mars missions including a sample return), a comet (including a sample return), and Pluto followed by a trip into the Kuiper belt. This set of missions leads to some outstanding requirements:

• 1.1. Long-life (10–12 years)
• 2.2. Total Ionizing Dose of 4 Mrad (for a Europa Orbiter)
• 3.3. Average power consumption less than or equal to 150 Watts
• 4.4. Autonomous operations that result in an extreme reduction in operations costs

This paper describes the X2000 first delivery and its technologies following a brief overview of the program.     

Resources of free space vs. flags and footprints on Mars

Human space exploration since Apollo appears to lack an overall context. There has been an overall context for the world's space efforts. But it is an unofficial one and it is outmoded, because it was based on a false assumption. This is the space exploration plan articulated by Von Braun in the 1950s and restated as the Integrated Space Program - 1970–1990, whose principal aim is to send humans to explore Mars. The critical underlying assumption of this plan was that Mars is a planet much like Earth, with an active biosphere. This Program has persisted nearly two decades after this underlying assumption has been shown to be false. There is a competing context re-emerging for human space exploration and development which is better fitted to the needs of human society in the post-Cold War era than the Mars program embraced by NASA and, to a large extent, the USSR during the period of US-Russian competition. The original space program uses the resources of free space and provides an economic rationale for human space activity.     

Spiders: water-driven erosive structures in the southern hemisphere of Mars

Recent data from space missions reveal that there are ongoing climatic changes and erosive processes that continuously modify surface features of Mars. We have investigated the seasonal dynamics of a number of morphological features located at Inca City, a representative area at high southern latitude that has undergone seasonal processes. By integrating visual information from the Mars Orbiter Camera on board the Mars Global Surveyor and climatic cycles from a Mars' General Circulation Model, and considering the recently reported evidence for the presence of water-ice and aqueous precipitates on Mars, we propose that a number of the erosive features identified in Inca City, among them spiders, result from the seasonal melting of aqueous salty solutions.     

Science in the national vision for space exploration: objectives and constituencies of the ‘discovery-driven’ paradigm

The NASA/White House Vision for Space Exploration is primarily focused on the development of human and robotic systems that will enable ‘discovery-driven’ investigations in areas important to the scientific community: Mars, the solar system's outer moons, and planets orbiting other stars. Such a portfolio can only be realized if NASA is prepared to target investment at opportunities that are most scientifically compelling. NASA's leaders will have to make decisions in subjective and uncertain environments about the relative long-term value of different kinds of scientific discoveries seen as equally important to different groups. A management paradigm of this kind will imply assessment of heterogeneous priorities and management of interdependent and changing requirements. In order to identify the basis and implications of a ‘discovery-driven’ paradigm, this paper surveys the relationship between the Vision's principles and its programmatic content, the objectives of the Vision's scientific focus areas and their interrelationships, and the public context in which science-focused exploration will proceed.     

空间天气科学与有效和平利用空间

空间天气科学是一门新兴的前沿交叉科学。文章首先从发展历程、发展现状和发展态势角度对空间天气科学进行了系统介绍,并指出空间天气科学是经济社会发展的"助推器"、助力科技革命的"加速器"和关系空间安全的"倍增器";接着对空间天气科学与有效和平利用空间的关系进行了阐述;最后对我国空间天气科学的发展和对人类的服务前景进行了展望,并给出了制定和实施"国家空间天气十年计划"和"空间天气科学服务和平利用空间国家专项"建议的初步构想。     

Detectability of planetary characteristics in disk-averaged spectra. I: The Earth model

Over the next 2 decades, NASA and ESA are planning a series of space-based observatories to detect and characterize extrasolar planets. This first generation of observatories will not be able to spatially resolve the terrestrial planets detected. Instead, these planets will be characterized by disk-averaged spectroscopy. To assess the detectability of planetary characteristics in disk-averaged spectra, we have developed a spatially and spectrally resolved model of the Earth. This model uses atmospheric and surface properties from existing observations and modeling studies as input, and generates spatially resolved high-resolution synthetic spectra using the Spectral Mapping Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model. Synthetic spectra were generated for a variety of conditions, including cloud coverage, illumination fraction, and viewing angle geometry, over a wavelength range extending from the ultraviolet to the farinfrared. Here we describe the model and validate it against disk-averaged visible to infrared observations of the Earth taken by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer, the ESA Mars Express Omega instrument, and ground-based observations of earthshine reflected from the unilluminated portion of the Moon. The comparison between the data and model indicates that several atmospheric species can be identified in disk-averaged Earth spectra, and potentially detected depending on the wavelength range and resolving power of the instrument. At visible wavelengths (0.4-0.9 microm) O3, H2O, O2, and oxygen dimer [(O2)2] are clearly apparent. In the mid-infrared (5-20 microm) CO2, O3, and H2O are present. CH4, N2O, CO2, O3, and H2O are visible in the near-infrared (1-5 microm). A comprehensive three-dimensional model of the Earth is needed to produce a good fit with the observations.     

好奇心号巡视器及其特点分析

"火星科学实验室"(Mars Science Laboratory,MSL)是NASA于2011年11月26日发射的火星探测器,其上的好奇心号(Curiosity)巡视器已经于2012年8月6日着陆火星;其主要科学目标包括研究火星存在生命的可能性、火星气候特征、火星地质过程,并为将来的载人着陆作准备;经过多次论证,其着陆区为盖尔撞击坑(Gale Crater)。与过去的火星巡视器相比,它携带了更加先进的科学仪器,能够精确分析采集样品的化学成分、光谱特征等;在科学工作小组的指导下,其运行模式包括行走、勘查、接近目标、接触目标与样品分析;通过上述工作,"火星科学实验室"将对火星生命及可居住性进行全面探测。     

Mars exploration program analysis group goal one: determine if life ever arose on Mars

The Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) maintains a standing document that articulates scientific community goals, objectives, and priorities for mission-enabled Mars science. Each of the goals articulated within the document is periodically revisited and updated. The astrobiology-related Goal One, "Determine if life ever arose on Mars," has recently undergone such revision. The finalized revision, which appears in the version of the MEPAG Goals Document posted on September 24, 2010, is presented here.     

Estimates of Carrington-class solar particle event radiation exposures as a function of altitude in the atmosphere of Mars

Radiation exposure estimates for crew members on the surface of Mars may vary widely because of the large variations in terrain altitude. The maximum altitude difference between the highest (top of Olympus Mons) and the lowest (bottom of the Hellas impact basin) points on Mars is about 32 km. In this work estimates of radiation exposures as a function of altitude, from the Hellas impact basin to Olympus Mons, are made for a solar particle event proton radiation environment comparable to the Carrington event of 1859. We assume that the proton energy distribution for this Carrington-type event is similar to that of the Band Function fit of the February 1956 event. In this work we use the HZETRN 2010 radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center, and the Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposures for aluminum shield areal densities similar to those provided by a spacesuit, surface lander, and permanent habitat as a function of altitude in the Mars atmosphere. Comparisons of the predicted organ exposures with current NASA Permissible Exposure Limits (PELs) are made.     

Piloted operations at a near-Earth object (NEO)

In late 2006, NASA's Constellation Program sponsored a study to examine the feasibility of sending a piloted Orion spacecraft to a near-Earth object. NEOs are asteroids or comets that have perihelion distances less than or equal to 1.3 astronomical units, and can have orbits that cross that of the Earth. Therefore, the most suitable targets for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) are those NEOs in heliocentric orbits similar to Earth's (i.e. low inclination and low eccentricity). One of the significant advantages of this type of mission is that it strengthens and validates the foundational infrastructure of the United States Space Exploration Policy and is highly complementary to NASA's planned lunar sortie and outpost missions circa 2020. A human expedition to a NEO would not only underline the broad utility of the Orion CEV and Ares launch systems, but would also be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth–Moon system. These deep space operations will present unique challenges not present in lunar missions for the onboard crew, spacecraft systems, and mission control team. Executing several piloted NEO missions will enable NASA to gain crucial deep space operational experience, which will be necessary prerequisites for the eventual human missions to Mars.Our NEO team will present and discuss the following:

• •new mission trajectories and concepts;
• •operational command and control considerations;
• •expected science, operational, resource utilization, and impact mitigation returns; and
• •continued exploration momentum and future Mars exploration benefits.

     

Creating a productive international partnership in the Vision for Space Exploration

When US President George W. Bush on 14 January 2004 announced a new US “Vision for Space Exploration”, he called for international participation in “a journey, not a race”, a call received with skepticism and concern elsewhere. But, after a slow start in implementing this directive, during 2006 NASA has increased the forward momentum of action on the program and of discussions on international cooperation in exploring “the Moon, Mars, and beyond”. There are nevertheless a number of significant top-level issues that must be addressed if a cooperative approach to human space exploration is to be pursued. These include the relationship between utilization of the ISS and the lunar exploration plans, integration of potential partners’ current and future capabilities into the exploration plans, and the evolving space-related intentions of other countries.     

The Mars Sample Return Project.

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Project is underway. A 2003 mission to be launched on a Delta III Class vehicle and a 2005 mission launched on an Ariane 5 will culminate in carefully selected Mars samples arriving on Earth in 2008. NASA is the lead agency and will provide the Mars landed elements, namely, landers, rovers, and Mars ascent vehicles (MAVs). The French Space Agency CNES is the largest international partner and will provide for the joint NASA/CNES 2005 Mission the Ariane 5 launch and the Earth Return Mars Orbiter that will capture the sample canisters from the Mars parking orbits the MAVs place them in. The sample canisters will be returned to Earth aboard the CNES Orbiter in the Earth Entry Vehicles provided by NASA. Other national space agencies are also expected to participate in substantial roles. Italy is planning to provide a drill that will operate from the Landers to provide subsurface samples. Other experiments in addition to the MSR payload will also be carried on the Landers. This paper will present the current status of the design of the MSR missions and flight articles.     

The space exploration initiative Perspective from the US space science community

As NASA struggles to fund and execute its ambitious Space Station Freedom and Mission to Planet Earth programmes, President Bush has pledge the nation to a programme to return humans to the Moon to stay and to explore Mars. While not predicted on scientific grounds, this Space Exploration Initiative welcomes the support and participation of the scientific community. Success in establishing this relationship will depend on how the initiative is structured, sold and managed within the context of scientists' past experience with large, manned flight programmes.