基于航天器解体事件的空间碎片寿命算法

研究了针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的寿命计算方法.给出了基于NASA标准航天器解体模型的航天器解体算法.该算法生成的一系列碎片参数,将作为寿命计算的初始条件.总结了现有求解碎片寿命的算法,并提出了一种半分析算法.该算法运用平均根数法的思路,计算了在J2摄动项的影响下,碎片的半长轴和偏心率的变化率;并采用微分积分法预报半长轴和偏心率随时间的变化.为了适应时变大气模型,该算法限制了计算步长.通过与数值法的比较分析了算法的计算速度和精度.选用了3种大气模型:SA76、GOST和MSIS-00,分析了不同大气模型在计算碎片寿命之间的差异.通过与P-78卫星解体事件的实测数据对比验证了整个算法的正确性.      

Cosmos 2421卫星解体事件分析

2008年上半年俄罗斯的Cosmos 2421卫星接连发生了三次不同程度的解体, 并产生了数百颗碎片. 本文利用美国公布的Cosmos 2421卫星及其碎片的两行根数系列, 对三次解体事件发生的时间, 解体碎片的轨道分布、速度分布和面积质量比以及寿命等进行了分析, 并对解体碎片对航天器的影响进行了评估. 分析结果表明, Cosmos2421卫星的三次解体事件分别发生在2008年3月14日、4月28日、6月9日; 解体碎片分布在200~1400 km 的高度范围内; Cosmos 2421卫星解体导致的碎片在空间三个方向上的速度增量均值分别为-8.4m/s, 8.6m/s, -8.3m/s; 67\%的解体碎片的寿命都在1年以内, 解体事件造成500 km以下的空间碎片空间密度增加, 对载人航天器产生了影响. 通过对Cosmos 2421卫星解体事件的分析可以看出, 利用解体碎片的轨道信息可以反演解体事件特性, 根据解体碎片的寿命和空间密度分布的计算结果可以评估解体事件对未来发射活动和在轨卫星的影响.      

圆轨道航天器在轨加注任务空间燃料站部署问题

在轨服务技术因在航天器故障修复、寿命延长及军事方面有重大辅助作用而越来越受到各航天大国的重视,作为在轨服务技术重要组成部分的在轨燃料补给技术也越来越受到关注。文章针对圆轨道航天器在轨燃料加注任务,将空间燃料站技术与多目标在轨加注技术相结合,对基于燃料站的在轨加注模式进行了研究,提出了一种基于聚类分析的在轨加注任务调度及优化算法。通过对双脉冲轨道转移问题的求解与分析,获得了轨道转移速度增量和轨道参数之间的关系,在此基础上分析了圆轨道航天器在轨加注任务调度问题,并根据调度模型的变量和约束关系,建立了圆轨道航天器在轨加注任务多目标规划模型,并采用免疫遗传算法对加注任务调度空间燃料站选址问题进行了研究。以30颗目标航天器的在轨加注任务为例进行了数值仿真,并由燃料消耗的计算结果验证了算法的有效性。     

圆轨道航天器在轨加注任务空间燃料站部署问题

在轨服务技术因在航天器故障修复、寿命延长及军事方面有重大辅助作用而越来越受到各航天大国的重视,作为在轨服务技术重要组成部分的在轨燃料补给技术也越来越受到关注。文章针对圆轨道航天器在轨燃料加注任务,将空间燃料站技术与多目标在轨加注技术相结合,对基于燃料站的在轨加注模式进行了研究,提出了一种基于聚类分析的在轨加注任务调度及优化算法。通过对双脉冲轨道转移问题的求解与分析,获得了轨道转移速度增量和轨道参数之间的关系,在此基础上分析了圆轨道航天器在轨加注任务调度问题,并根据调度模型的变量和约束关系,建立了圆轨道航天器在轨加注任务多目标规划模型,并采用免疫遗传算法对加注任务调度空间燃料站选址问题进行了研究。以30颗目标航天器的在轨加注任务为例进行了数值仿真,并由燃料消耗的计算结果验证了算法的有效性。     

各国空间碎片政策一瞥

空间碎片是人类在航天活动中遗弃在太空的废弃物,也称"太空垃圾",主要包括废弃的航天器和运载火箭箭体、固体火箭燃烧物、航天器在轨操作及碰撞解体产生的碎片等.目前,毫米级以上的空间碎片数以亿计,总质量达到几千吨.厘米级以上的空间碎片可导致航天器彻底损坏,毫米级或微米级空间碎片的撞击累积效应将导致航天器性能下降或功能失效.此...     

蜂窝夹层板超高速撞击极限方程分析

为分析撞击极限方程对蜂窝夹层结构的穿透特性的预测能力,调研得到了3类撞击极限方程的表达形式和等效方法,以及131个采用碳纤维复合材料(CFRP)面板的蜂窝夹层板结构的试验数据,并对撞击极限方程的预测能力进行了比较计算。结果发现,MET方程对他源数据的四种(未失效、失效、总体以及安全)预测率均大于80%,进行在轨航天器结构的失效分析时可优先选用;SRL方程对本源数据的安全预测率达到了100%,在他源数据上的安全预测率也很高,适用于航天器防护结构设计。探讨了撞击极限方程中的系数、速度分界值的优化思路,以提高撞击极限方程的预测率。     

卫星高压气瓶的超高速撞击试验

微流星体及空间碎片超高速撞击对在轨航天器构成了严重威胁,星上压力容器受空间碎片撞击后所产生的威胁是十分严重的,可能导致航天器发生灾难性失效,过早结束其使命。文章通过星上常用气瓶的超高速撞击试验,获取了不同弹丸撞击参数下气瓶器壁的通孔孔径,得到了在弹丸撞击速度为(6.5±0.3)km/s、无防护情况下气瓶器壁的弹道极限,并分析了导致充压气瓶灾难性失效的弹丸直径范围;通过对试验数据拟合,初步建立了弹丸正撞击速度为(6.5±0.3)km/s、无防护情况下气瓶器壁的通孔孔径预测公式,为航天器遭遇空间碎片撞击的风险评估及防护措施制定提供依据。     

反演航天器在轨瞬态外热流的导热反问题

获得航天器在轨飞行过程中的外热流数据对于研究热控涂层在轨退化规律、各种空间因素对热控产品的影响以及航天器姿轨控发动机羽流热效应都有非常重要的意义,然而直接测量热流存在很多困难,因此可以通过求解导热反问题得到满足一定精度的结果.首先,通过研究利用航天器设备在轨遥测温度值反演出航天器在轨瞬态外热流的导热反问题方法,建立了反演航天器在轨瞬态外热流的数学模型,采用共轭梯度法求解导热反问题并从物理概念角度改进了共轭梯度法的迭代过程以增加其抗不适定性;然后构造了两组能够代表目前大多数地球轨道航天器以及深空探测航天器在轨吸收外热流变化的数值试验对共轭梯度法的反演效果进行了检验.除阶跃变化位置以外反演值与真实值的最大相对偏差为2.9%,反演效果非常好;对于阶跃变化位置的吸收外热流在对反演结果进行分析处理后也能够得到较好的反演结果.      

利用TLE数据分析LEO卫星轨道异常的新方法——————综合判据法

及时准确地发现在轨卫星的轨道异常意义重大. 通过有效的异常算法, 能够找出发生轨道异常的碎片或航天器, 为空间碎片碰撞预警系统分析和验证碰撞事件提供数据支持. 通过对利用TLE (Two Line Elements)数据分析LEO在轨卫星轨道异常的方法研究, 提出了一个利用单个卫星相邻根数时间差控制加综合判据的判别方法. 分析表明, 相对于取单一因素阈值的判别方法, 综合判据法能够最大限度地减少漏判, 并且保持相对较高的判断准确率.      

在轨航天器动力学参数辨识技术研究

针对在轨航天器低频密集和辨识时激励源有限且难于测量等特点,开展了适用于低频密集模态且不需激励信息的在轨航天器动力学参数辨识方法的研究,探讨了直接利用在轨响应数据在频域内辨识航天器动力学参数的技术;并根据在轨航天器低频密集特点,设计了在轨航天器动力学参数辨识仿真试验系统,对该辨识方法进行了试验验证。     

利用精化误差进行危险交会分析

空间碎片碰撞预警工作主要针对的是可监测的较大空间碎片, 预测航天器与碎片之间的碰撞风险, 并根据一定的预警判据来评估风险的大小, 进而做出合理的轨道规避决策. 碰撞概率是碰撞风险评估的重要依据. 复合体尺寸、交会距离和误差是影响碰撞概率的三个决定性因素. 当复合体尺寸与交会距离差别不大时, 误差因素对碰撞概率结果起着决定性的作用. 在利用整天误差计算碰撞概率的基础上, 提出了利用精化误差计算碰撞概率的方法, 在危险交会分析中取得了良好的效果.      

Practical method to identify orbital anomaly as spacecraft breakup in the geostationary region

Identifying spacecraft breakup events is an essential issue for better understanding of the current orbital debris environment. This paper proposes an observation planning approach to identify an orbital anomaly, which appears as a significant discontinuity in archived orbital history, as a spacecraft breakup. The proposed approach is applicable to orbital anomalies in the geostationary region. The proposed approach selects a spacecraft that experienced an orbital anomaly, and then predicts trajectories of possible fragments of the spacecraft at an observation epoch. This paper theoretically demonstrates that observation planning for the possible fragments can be conducted. To do this, long-term behaviors of the possible fragments are evaluated. It is concluded that intersections of their trajectories will converge into several corresponding regions in the celestial sphere even if the breakup epoch is not specified and it has uncertainty of the order of several weeks.     

基于解体事件的空间碎片轨道演化算法研究

针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程,进行了数学分析,确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量,在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更,本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数,分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下,空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况,给出了相关结果,结果表明此算法可行。     

Faster algorithm of debris cloud orbital character from spacecraft collision breakup

Space debris is polluting the space environment. Collision fragment is its important source. NASA standard breakup model, including size distributions, area-to-mass distributions, and delta velocity distributions, is a statistic experimental model used widely. The general algorithm based on the model is introduced. But this algorithm is difficult when debris quantity is more than hundreds or thousands. So a new faster algorithm for calculating debris cloud orbital lifetime and character from spacecraft collision breakup is presented first. For validating the faster algorithm, USA 193 satellite breakup event is simulated and compared with general algorithm. Contrast result indicates that calculation speed and efficiency of faster algorithm is very good. When debris size is in 0.01–0.05 m, the faster algorithm is almost a hundred times faster than general algorithm. And at the same time, its calculation precision is held well. The difference between corresponding orbital debris ratios from two algorithms is less than 1% generally.     

一种基于TLE数据的轨道异常分析方法

空间在轨物体的轨道异常是航天工程及预警领域普遍关注的问题,及时发现轨道异常意义重大,通过分析空间物体的轨道异常,可以及时发现和识别规避事件或碰撞事件,还可以了解监测网的能力.本文提出一种基于TLE数据的简单的轨道异常分析方法——长半轴变化法.该方法快速有效,应用到低轨在用卫星和美俄解体碎片的异常分析中,异常物体正确识别率可达到100%;对美俄解体碎片进行轨道异常分析后得出,美国空间监视网可以稳定探测90%以上的解体碎片.      

Observation campaign dedicated to 1968-081E fragments identification

This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to associate origins of space objects newly discovered during optical surveys in the geostationary region with spacecraft breakup events. A recent study has shown that twelve breakup events would be occurred in the geostationary region. The proposed approach utilizes orbital debris modeling techniques to effectively conduct prediction, detection, and classification of breakup fragments. Two techniques are applied to get probable results for origin identifications. First, we select an observation point where a high detection rate for one breakup event among others can be expected. Second, we associate detected tracklets, which denotes the signals associated with a physical object, with the prediction results according to their angular velocities. The second technique investigates which breakup event a tracklet would belong to, and its probability by using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm.     

Taurid complex meteoroids detected near aphelion with Ulysses

Between 3.4 and 4.0 AU the dust detection system aboard the Ulysses spacecraft showed an increase in detection rate for particles with masses greater than 5 × 10⁻¹³ g. The spacecraft meteoroid encounter geometry indicates highly eccentric orbits detected near aphelion. The outer limit of the enhanced flux is imposed as meteoroids on such orbits move outside the aperture of the dust detector. The inner edge of the enhanced flux would be consistent with the aphelion distance acquired by 50-200 μm particles evolving for 10-20 kyr under Poynting-Robertson drag from an Encke type orbit. We propose such meteoroids provide a source population from which collisional fragmentation produces particles in the mass range to which the Ulysses detector is sensitive. Daughter fragments produced away from the aphelia of the parent orbits, a 2.2 AU, e 0.85, enter hyperbolic orbits which are not evident in the Ulysses data. The spatial density of fragments from collisions very near aphelion drops off rapidly as they evolve inward under Poynting-Robertson drag while collisions closer to 3.4 AU leave the subsequent peak density outside that radius for a significant fraction of the fragment's subsequent lifetime. The rapid orbital evolution for these collision fragments implies a recent breakup and probably a large reservoir of parent meteoroids.     

Characterization of the cataloged Fengyun-1C fragments and their long-term effect on the LEO environment

The intentional breakup of Fengyun-1C on 11 January 2007 created the most severe orbital debris cloud in history. The altitude where the event occurred was probably the worst location for a major breakup in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, since it was already highly populated with operational satellites and debris generated from previous breakups. The addition of so many fragments not only poses a realistic threat to operational satellites in the region, but also increases the instability (i.e., collision cascade effect) of the debris population there.     

The ratio of hazardous meteoroids to orbital debris in near-Earth space

Orbital debris is known to pose a substantial threat to Earth-orbiting spacecraft at certain altitudes. For instance, the orbital debris flux near Sun-synchronous altitudes of 600–800 km is particularly high due in part to the 2007 Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test and the 2009 Iridium-Kosmos collision. At other altitudes, however, the orbital debris population is minimal and the primary impactor population is not man-made debris particles but naturally occurring meteoroids. While the spacecraft community has some awareness of the risk posed by debris, there is a common misconception that orbital debris impacts dominate the risk at all locations. In this paper, we present a damage-limited comparison between meteoroids and orbital debris near the Earth for a range of orbital altitude and inclination, using NASA’s latest models for each environment. Overall, orbital debris dominates the impact risk between altitudes of 600 and 1300 km, while meteoroids dominate below 270 km and above 4800 km.