计入导线故障的民机安全性定量分析方法研究

将导线故障引入安全性定量分析方法中,介绍了安全性分析的现状、存在的问题以及计入导线故障的必要性。通过将导线故障和安全性分析相结合,提出一种计人导线故障的安全性定量分析方法。对影响导线故障的机理进行探究与分析,提出“导线故障率影响因子”概念,阐述了影响导线故障率的主要因素及其类型,建立了一种民用飞机实际导线故障率计算方法与模型,以及在单一状态和多种状态下导线故障率计算方法,并对方法进行案例分析,使安全性定量分析更准确、有效和完善,大大减少了导线故障所引起的不安全事件,为民用飞机安全性和合格审定工作提供了有力的支持。     

A generalized rough set-based information filling technique for failure analysis of thruster experimental data

Interval-valued data and incomplete data are two key problems for failure analysis of thruster experimental data and have been basically solved by the proposed methods in this paper. Firstly, information data acquired from the simulation and evaluation system formed as intervalvalued information system （IIS） is classified by the interval similarity relation. Then, as an improvement of the classical rough set, a new kind of generalized information entropy called ＂H＇-information entropy＂ is suggested for the measurement of uncertainty and the classification ability of IIS. There is an innovative information filling technique using the properties of H＇-information entropy to replace missing data by some smaller estimation intervals. Finally, an improved method of failure analysis synthesized by the above achievements is presented to classify the thruster experimental data, complete the information, and extract the failure rules. The feasibility and advantage of this method is testified by an actual application of failure analysis, whose performance is evaluated by the quantification of E-condition entropy.     

基于改进FRAM的民机系统安全性分析

民机安全性分析的重要内容之一是系统运行过程分析，现有的运营安全性分析模型大多没有综合考虑人、飞机、运行环境等各类影响安全性的因素。本文综合考虑系统安全性分析功能间的时间、控制、资源、前提等影响，更加细致地分析影响系统安全运行的因素，建立了全面且规范化定量化安全性分析模型。运用功能可变性描述规则（RFV）、层次分析法（AHP）对功能共振分析法（FRAM）进行改进，建立民机系统安全性综合分析模型。使用模型还原143号班机安全运行所需条件，分析得出应重点防范的耦合变异与功能失效，且扩展了原事故调查报告结论，表明了该模型的可行性，提出的理论模型可为航空公司在运营系统安全性方面提供理论参考和技术支持。     

Gravity Probe B Data Analysis

This is the first of five connected papers detailing progress on the Gravity Probe B (GP-B) Relativity Mission. GP-B, launched 20 April 2004, is a landmark physics experiment in space to test two fundamental predictions of Einstein’s general relativity theory, the geodetic and frame-dragging effects, by means of cryogenic gyroscopes in Earth orbit. Data collection began 28 August 2004 and science operations were completed 29 September 2005. The data analysis has proven deeper than expected as a result of two mutually reinforcing complications in gyroscope performance: (1) a changing polhode path affecting the calibration of the gyroscope scale factor C _g against the aberration of starlight and (2) two larger than expected manifestations of a Newtonian gyro torque due to patch potentials on the rotor and housing. In earlier papers, we reported two methods, ‘geometric’ and ‘algebraic’, for identifying and removing the first Newtonian effect (‘misalignment torque’), and also a preliminary method of treating the second (‘roll-polhode resonance torque’). Central to the progress in both torque modeling and C _g determination has been an extended effort on “Trapped Flux Mapping” commenced in November 2006. A turning point came in August 2008 when it became possible to include a detailed history of the resonance torques into the computation. The East-West (frame-dragging) effect is now plainly visible in the processed data. The current statistical uncertainty from an analysis of 155 days of data is 5.4 marc-s/yr (～14% of the predicted effect), though it must be emphasized that this is a preliminary result requiring rigorous investigation of systematics by methods discussed in the accompanying paper by Muhlfelder et al. A covariance analysis incorporating models of the patch effect torques indicates that a 3–5% determination of frame-dragging is possible with more complete, computationally intensive data analysis.     

基于STPA的飞机交流系统供电转换安全性分析方法研究

飞机交流发电系统是整机的主要电力来源,应对其进行完善的安全性分析。传统安全性分析方法对系统组件间非线性交互引起的安全问题关注较少,当研制型号支持数据不足时,存在分析遗漏风险。根据典型交流发电系统供电转换过程基本特点,基于STPA方法构建安全控制结构图,识别不安全控制行为（UCA）,引入相似系统的失效模式及影响分析（FMEA）结果,分析UCA致因因素和致因场景,使用时间自动机理论的形式化工具进行系统建模与验证;通过专家评判及事故对比来验证该方法的正确性。结果表明：在传统分析方法的基础上引入STPA方法,能够有效识别出不安全控制行为和事故发生的原因,该方法可以作为传统方法的有效补充。     

基于模型的航空发动机系统安全性研究

在分析概括传统系统安全性分析的基础上,提出了一种基于模型的航空发动机系统安全性评估流程和分析方法,其从航空发动机系统自身特点出发,统一安全性分析和发动机性能设计模型,实现安全性设计和性能设计之间的平衡交互,以保证安全性分析结果的一致性、完整性和客观性.经概括,该流程方法所需突破 的3个关键技术有:①失效模式的描述方法;②关键影响因素的分级和定位方法;③安全性分析验证方法.      

航空发动机故障报告、分析和纠正措施系统模型的构建

针对航空发动机研制中的信息分散,不能及时纠正和管理的问题,提出构造有效的故障报告、分析和纠正措施系统平台和数据库集中管理的方法,利用该方法能够对发动机故障实施有计划、有组织、按程序地开展调查、分析和纠正的组织工作,保证故障原因分析的准确性和纠正措施的有效性,对故障实行闭环控制,彻底消除故障产生的原因,从而真正实现问题"归零",为发动机研制单位成功实现高效率、高水平、高起点、归零控制等质量目标提供保障.      

Efficient adaptive Kriging for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes under random and interval hybrid uncertainty

In the field of the system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes, the advances mainly involve only random uncertainty. The upper bound of the system failure probability with multiple failure modes is usually employed to quantify the safety level under Random and Interval Hybrid Uncertainty(RI-HU). At present, there is a lack of an efficient and accurate method for estimating the upper bound of the system failure probability. This paper proposed an efficient Kriging model based on nume...     

计算机辅助功能危险评估方法研究

功能和安全一直是高风险复杂系统的关键问题。传统的功能危险评估由安全工程师手工进行分析，面对高度复杂系统时，就会变得难以完成且容易出错。解决这种问题的一个途径就是利用计算机进行辅助。为此提出一种计算机辅助的功能危险评估方法，采用状态图语言搭建系统状态模型，将功能失效影响直观地从系统状态转移图上表达出来。并且在系统状态模型的基础上，采用计算机编程快速计算出导致系统故障的失效组合以及最小割集。最后以飞机为对象证明了方法的可行性。     

航空公司飞行安全综合评估研究

人的因素是影响飞行安全的关键因素,并且各决策因素具有难以度量的不确定性.以机组人为因素为主要研究对象,利用SHELL模型建立飞行安全评估指标体系,并利用AHP方法计算评估指标体系中各个指标的权重;运用物元理论建立评估模型并利用该模型进行飞行安全综合评估,找出影响飞行安全的主要指标;通过实例验证所用方法的可行性、有效性.结果表明:所用方法可行、有效,能够最大限度地解决评估过程中的不确定性,可为航空公司进行飞行安全管理提供一个可行的方法.     

民用飞机机身密封技术的浅析

机身密封技术是影响飞机疲劳寿命、使用寿命、经济修理和安全性的一个关键因素,减少密封失效面引起机身腐蚀,提高飞机的密封能力是民用飞机制造发展的必然趋势.介绍民用飞机机身密封的类型,分析密封剂的性能要求;结合机身密封工艺要求和结构特点,给出密封操作方法的建议;分析密封失效的原因,给出典型结构密封的失效修理方法,保证飞机使用安全性和寿命.     

Characterization and Calibration of the CheMin Mineralogical Instrument on Mars Science Laboratory

A principal goal of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity is to identify and characterize past habitable environments on Mars. Determination of the mineralogical and chemical composition of Martian rocks and soils constrains their formation and alteration pathways, providing information on climate and habitability through time. The CheMin X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) instrument on MSL will return accurate mineralogical identifications and quantitative phase abundances for scooped soil samples and drilled rock powders collected at Gale Crater during Curiosity’s 1-Mars-year nominal mission. The instrument has a Co X-ray source and a cooled charge-coupled device (CCD) detector arranged in transmission geometry with the sample. CheMin’s angular range of 5^° to 50^° 2θ with <0.35^° 2θ resolution is sufficient to identify and quantify virtually all minerals. CheMin’s XRF requirement was descoped for technical and budgetary reasons. However, X-ray energy discrimination is still required to separate Co?Kα from Co?Kβ and Fe?Kα photons. The X-ray energy-dispersive histograms (EDH) returned along with XRD for instrument evaluation should be useful in identifying elements Z>13 that are contained in the sample. The CheMin XRD is equipped with internal chemical and mineralogical standards and 27 reusable sample cells with either Mylar^? or Kapton^? windows to accommodate acidic-to-basic environmental conditions. The CheMin flight model (FM) instrument will be calibrated utilizing analyses of common samples against a demonstration-model (DM) instrument and CheMin-like laboratory instruments. The samples include phyllosilicate and sulfate minerals that are expected at Gale crater on the basis of remote sensing observations.     

An attack-immune trusted architecture for supervisory aircraft hardware

With the wide application of electronic hardware in aircraft such as air-to-ground communication, satellite communication, positioning system and so on, aircraft hardware is facing great secure pressure. Focusing on the secure problem of aircraft hardware, this paper proposes a supervisory control architecture based on secure System-on-a-Chip (SoC) system. The proposed architecture is attack-immune and trustworthy, which can support trusted escrow application and Dynamic Integrity Measurement (DIM) without interference. This architecture is characterized by a Trusted Monitoring System (TMS) hardware isolated from the Main Processor System (MPS), a secure access channel from TMS to the running memory of the MPS, and the channel is unidirectional. Based on this architecture, the DIM program running on TMS is used to measure and call the Lightweight Measurement Agent (LMA) program running on MPS. By this method, the Operating System (OS) kernel, key software and data of the MPS can be dynamically measured without disturbance, which makes it difficult for adversaries to attack through software. Besides, this architecture has been fully verified on FPGA prototype system. Compared with the existing systems, our architecture achieves higher security and is more efficient on DIM, which can fully supervise the running of application and aircraft hardware OS.     

民航维修安全质量综合评估与预测

提出了建立量化的民航维修安全质量综合评估系统并对关键性指标的变化趋势进行预测分析的新设想,为民航维修安全管理提供科学的方法和手段,也为航空安全管理系统(SMS)的实施垫定了基础。从安全状况、质量状况、维修能力和维修经济性四个方面,利用模糊数学进行综合评估,形成反映民航维修总体状况的安全质量指数(SQI);同时利用灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型和时间序列分析模型对未来的趋势进行预测。评估和预测分析的结果为管理者提供准确的决策依据,及时发现不良趋势并采取相应的预防措施,确保航空安全。     

基于有限元法的机翼安全性评价的研究

运用有限元方法及大型有限元软件包Ansys，提出利用三个指标定量评价机翼的安全性，即应力位移的条件、关键点的安全系数、机翼载荷失效过程稳定安全度。并通过空客A320实例验证这种做法的有效性。计算结果表明，机翼总体上满足安全稳定要求，机翼发生失效的最危险的部位是机翼的根部，在循环疲劳载荷作用下，应注意机翼的根部及机翼的关键点上。     

改进的Qiu滑移因子模型用于离心压气机叶轮的参数研究

为适用于微型离心压气机叶轮的通流设计,对Qiu滑移因子模型加入了3个经验参数.首先对经验参数的求解方法及参数对于设计精度的影响进行了分析研究,发现其中经验参数c_r对于设计精度影响较大.其次在通流设计中应用改进的Qiu滑移因子模型辅助生成叶片,用计算流体动力学(CFD)研究了c_r所影响的模型滑移因子,与数值流场的出口平均滑移因子对比,得到了多种叶轮总体参数下c_r的最佳取值.发现虽然微型、大型离心压气机叶轮总体参数变化范围很大,但c_r的取值均以0.7左右为其最佳值.      

Quantification of parametric uncertainty in γ-Reθ model for typical flat plate and airfoil transitional flows

Owing to the lack of physical knowledge of boundary layer transition, the γ-Re_θ transition model introduces closure parameters, which increase the uncertainty of transition prediction. The objective of this work is to quantify the uncertainties of closure parameters in the quantities of interests and identify the key parameters. The six closure parameters in the uncertainty intervals are used as input variables, and the uncertainties of the output results are propagated by a stochastic expansion based on the point-collocation nonintrusive polynomial chaos method. The relative contribution of each parameter to uncertainty is evaluated by the Sobol index. The computational cases include natural and bypass transitional flows on zero-pressure-gradient flat plates, and subsonic and transonic flows around airfoils. For most cases, c_e2, c_a2, and c_a1 dominate the uncertainty, and the influence of σ_θt is also significant when the history effects of flow are evident. The contribution of parameters in airfoils is more complex than that in flat plates. The transonic airfoil case shows that flow separation dramatically changes the distribution of Sobol indices, which poses a challenge to the accurate prediction of transition. Generally, c_e2 and c_a2 are the key parameters of the γ-Re_θ model.     

系统安全性评估中飞行机组人为因素的分析方法

随着飞机系统日益高度综合复杂和自动化水平逐渐提高,飞行员在应对失效或应急情况时往往准备不足,纠正动作可能是不正确、不及时或不完整的,因此系统安全性评估中迫切需要考虑飞行机组人为因素问题。通过分析CCAR25.1309（b）和（c）条款的要求和飞行机组对失效的处理过程,基于功能危险性评估中的失效状态,提出人为因素需求的捕获方法和人为因素分析方法;通过在型号中应用这些方法,从失效状态向告警和程序的角度实现安全性正向设计,建立安全性评估中飞行机组人为因素的完整适航符合性证据链。结果表明：本文提出的方法可有效表明对CCAR25.1309（b）和（c）条款中人为因素相关的适航符合性。     

An improved numerical method for constructing Halo/Lissajous orbits in a full solar system model

An improved numerical method that can construct Halo/Lissajous orbits in the vicinity of collinear libration points in a full solar system model is investigated. A full solar system gravitational model in the geocentric rotating coordinate system with a clear presentation of the angular velocity relative to the inertial coordinate system is proposed. An alternative way to determine patch points in the multiple shooting method is provided based on a dynamical analysis with Poincare′sections. By employing the new patch points and sequential quadratic programming, Halo orbits for L_1, L_2, and L_3 points as well as Lissajous orbits for L_1 and L_2 points in the EarthMoon system are generated with the proposed full solar system gravitational model to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Nonlinear dynamics and station-keeping control of a rotating tethered satellite system in halo orbits

The dynamics of a rotating tethered satellite system （TSS） in the vicinity of libration points are highly nonlinear and inherently unstable. In order to fulfill the station-keep control of the rotating TSS along halo orbits, a nonlinear output tracking control scheme based on the θ- D technique is proposed. Compared with the popular time-variant linear quadratic regulator （LQR） controller, this approach overcomes some limitations such as on-line computations of the algebraic Riccati equation. Besides, the obtained nonlinear suboptimal controller is in a closed form and easy to implement. Numerical simulations show that the TTS trajectories track the periodic reference orbit with low energy consumption in the presence of both tether and initial injection errors. The axis of rotation can keep pointing to an inertial specific object to fulfill an observation mission. In addition, the thrusts required by the controller are in an acceptable range and can be implemented through some low-thrust propulsion devices.