Optical orbital debris spotter

The number of man-made debris objects orbiting the Earth, or orbital debris, is alarmingly increasing, resulting in the increased probability of degradation, damage, or destruction of operating spacecraft. In part, small objects (<10 cm) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are of concern because they are abundant and difficult to track or even to detect on a routine basis. Due to the increasing debris population it is reasonable to assume that improved capabilities for on-orbit damage attribution, in addition to increased capabilities to detect and track small objects are needed. Here we present a sensor concept to detect small debris with sizes between approximately 1.0 and 0.01 cm in the vicinity of a host spacecraft for near real time damage attribution and characterization of dense debris fields and potentially to provide additional data to existing debris models.     

The Investigation of Possible Approaches of Cataloged Space Objects to Manned Spacecraft

Initial orbital parameter errors are used to examine the miss distance between a spacecraft and an ensemble of tracked objects by a Monte Carlo-type analysis. The radial separation between orbits is evaluated and a keep-out zone is determined, which reduces the risk of collision to an acceptable level.An operational prediction methodology is suggested based on a catalog database, which identifies potentially hazardous approaches and computes the probability of collision for selected spacecraft. An example for the Mir Space Station is presented, which estimates the collision probability and the cross-sectional flux of cataloged objects for the time frame of interest. The results appear to be in good agreement with those of other space debris models.     

空间目标碰撞概率的等效矩形域快速算法

针对线性相对运动假设下的碰撞概率计算问题,提出了等效矩形域方法。利用该方法将概率积分计算进行近似处理,推导出概率密度积分的解析表达式。针对空间目标误差椭球形状固定的情况,给出了最大碰撞概率的计算方法。对目标在交会时刻相距较远和接近碰撞的情况进行了碰撞概率以及最大碰撞概率计算。通过将计算结果与空间压缩无穷级数法的对比,验证了等效矩形域方法近似计算碰撞概率积分的可靠性,同时对于不同的碰撞概率计算情况,等效矩形域方法显示出更高精确度和更好的估计偏差稳定性。     

Tether satellite system collision study

A study was performed to determine the probability of collision with resident space objects and untrackable debris for the tether component of the Tethered Satellite System (TSS) after it broke away from the space shuttle orbiter (mission STS-75) in February 1996. Both an analytical and a numerical approach were used in this study, and the results obtained with these two methods were found to be in good agreement. These results show that the deployed tether is expected to have been impacted by several particles 0.1 mm or larger in size. The probability of collision with objects 10 cm in size or larger was on the order of 10⁻³ per month. Since the severed tether reentered within one month after deployment, the collision hazard to other objects while in orbit was small. The analytical methods used in this study are general and can be applied to future tether collision evaluations.     

基于显式表达式的空间目标最大碰撞概率分析

最大碰撞概率的计算在空间目标碰撞风险评估中具有重要意义。基于碰撞概率的显式 表达式,利用一元函数和二元函数求极值的方法分别讨论了目标误差椭球形状固定和不定两 种情况下最大碰撞概率的计算方法,得到了两种情况下最大碰撞概率的表达式。对于误差椭 球形状固定的情况得到了碰撞概率最大时两目标位置协方差的取值,对于误差椭球不定情况 得到了碰撞概率最大时径向联合方差的取值和水平面内联合方差所满足的关系。分析了最大 碰撞概率的影响因素,讨论了水平面内误差方差的耦合特性。对今年二月发生的美俄卫星碰 撞事件进行了分析,得到误差椭球任意形状时最大碰撞概率为1.864E-3。
     

Analytical and numerical re-entry analysis of simple-shaped objects

The application of SCARAB (spacecraft atmospheric re-entry and aerothermal break-up) to several re-entry objects within the last years has shown the need of fast methods and easy-to use guidelines for a first assessment of the survival probability for these objects or parts of them. Such methods and guidelines will be also very helpful during the design process of a satellite in order to decide, whether a controlled re-entry had to be foreseen at the end of the lifetime, or an uncontrolled re-entry would be acceptable.Within current studies HTG has developed analytical and numerical methods to analyze the demise of simple-shaped objects like spheres, boxes, and cylinders. In addition, the SCARAB software system has been used to evaluate the shielding effects of concentric shells.This paper presents the analytical and numerical models used within the study and the results which have been achieved, including demise ranges for several object/material combinations. The SCARAB results for shielding effects are presented as well.     

Tether Satellite System Collision Study

A study was performed to determine the probability of collision with resident space objects and untrackable debris for the tether component of the Tethered Satellite System (TSS) after it broke away from the Space Shuttle orbiter (mission STS-75) in February 1996. Both an analytical and a numerical approach were used in this study, and the results obtained with these two methods were found to be in good agreement. These results show that the deployed tether is expected to have been impacted by several particles 0.1mm or larger in size. The probability of collision with objects 10cm in size or larger was on the order of 10^–3 per month. Since the severed tether reentered within one month after deployment, the collision hazard to other objects while in orbit was small. The analytical methods used in this study are useful for tether collision evaluations in general.     

基于稀疏重构的杂波环境下红外图像空间邻近目标超分辨方法

基于稀疏重构的超分辨方法是应对空间邻近目标的有效方法之一,但是当目标处于杂波环境下时,杂波会布满在整个视场范围内,导致场景原有的稀疏性被破坏。针对这一现象提出了一种在杂波环境下的超分辨方法。该方法充分利用了传感器的结构特性以及重构算法中的参数,通过建立观测信号的红外成像模型并利用像元网格划分的方式,建立空间邻近目标群的位置和幅度信号的稀疏表示,并利用其光学系统的点扩散函数来构造超完备字典,最后通过控制重构场景中非零元素的个数比例来使重构参数处于一个合理的区间范围,以此来达到去除杂波干扰并准确重建稀疏目标的目的。     

Post-disposal orbital evolution of satellites and upper stages used by the GPS and GLONASS navigation constellations: The long-term impact on the Medium Earth Orbit environment

The long-term evolution and environmental impact in MEO of all the abandoned spacecraft and upper stages associated with the GPS and GLONASS navigation constellations were analyzed. The orbits of the disposed objects, as of 1 May 2011, were propagated for 200 years and snapshots of their evolving distribution were obtained, together with an estimation of the changing collision probability with the spacecraft of the operational navigation systems existing or planned in MEO, i.e., GLONASS, GPS, Beidou and Galileo. The probability that the abandoned objects considered will collide with the operational spacecraft of the navigation constellations is very low, even taking into account the intrinsic eccentricity instability of the disposal orbits. Assuming the present or envisaged configuration of the constellations in MEO, the probability of collision, integrated over 200 years, would be <1/300 with a GLONASS spacecraft, <1/15,000 with a GPS or Beidou spacecraft, and <1/250,000 with a Galileo spacecraft. The worst disposal strategy consists in abandoning satellites and upper stages close to the altitude of the operational constellation (GLONASS), while a re-orbiting a few hundred km away (GPS) is able to guarantee an effective long-term dilution of the collision risk, irrespective of the eccentricity instability due to geopotential and luni-solar perturbations. The disposal strategies applied so far to the GPS satellites should be able to guarantee for at least a few centuries a sustainable MEO environment free of collisions among intact objects. Consequently, there would be no need to adopt disposal schemes targeting also the optimal value of the eccentricity vector. However, it should be pointed out that the GPS disposal strategy was devised well in advance of the Beidou constellation announcement, so most of the abandoned satellites were re-orbited fairly close to the altitude of the new Chinese system. A new re-orbiting approach will be therefore needed in the future.     

New insights on the orbital debris collision hazard at GEO

An analysis is performed of the orbital debris collision hazard to operational spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). As part of the examination, the contribution of individual components of the population are considered and presented to provide a clearer linkage between object characteristic and resulting risk. Our examination of GEO collision risk reveals several critical new insights: (1) the current probability of collision in GEO is relatively low, yet the future is difficult to predict due to our limited ability to observe objects in GEO and the uncertainty in past and future debris-generating events in GEO; (2) the probability of collision in GEO is not uniform by longitude — it is seven times greater in regions centered about the geopotential wells; (3) the probability of a mission-terminating collision is greatly dependent upon the approximately 2200 objects in the 10 cm–1 m range observed in GEO but not yet cataloged; (4) hardware relocated to GEO “graveyard” disposal orbits pose a potential additional, but not fully understood, collision hazard to operational GEO satellites; and (5) the collision hazard throughout the course of a day or year is highly episodic (i.e. non-uniform).     

基于极大极小准则的模糊域划分方法

在分析模拟电路故障诊断中传统的故障字典法的两类模糊域划分方法的基础上 ,提出一种新的模糊域划分方法——基于极大极小准则的模糊域划分方法。此方法有效地解决了在先验概率未知的条件下 ,如何动态可变且快速地划分模糊域的问题。并通过实际电路仿真对这种方法的有效性和实用性进行了验证     

结构系统静强度与疲劳耦合可靠性的当量寿命分析

基于结构系统静强度和疲劳耦合可靠性分析方法,给出了元件静强度失效的当量寿命和当量损伤的概念。结合蒙特卡罗分析方法,讨论了当量损伤服从正态分布、对数正态分布、极值Ⅰ型分布和威布尔分布时当量寿命的概率分布形式。分析结果表明：当量损伤服从正态分布、对数正态分布、极值Ⅰ型分布时,当量寿命服从对数正态分布;当量损伤服从威布尔分布...     

碰撞风险评估中的空间环境激励图方法

因航天器物理特征、空间环境扰动变化、预报技术和大气模型性能等既有不确定因素的存在，空间目标碰撞概率等与轨道预报相关的评估工作存在模糊度问题，无法准确描述碰撞风险水平。文章基于碰撞概率极值，简化气动力误差模型，量化计算轨道预报相关事务的边界；提出空间环境激励图和3σ区的概念，并给出具体实施方法以及空间碎片碰撞预警、空间物体陨落预报的计算示例。计算结果表明，该方法能较好应对轨道预报相关事务中的模糊度问题，可为相关航天工程实践和决策提供参考。     

复合材料层合板热-力作用下的失效研究

碳纤维复合材料力学性能优异,在航空航天等领域广泛使用,其在热-力联合作用下的损伤失效研究对于结构的损伤破坏和强度预测具有重要意义。发展了热力耦合条件下复合材料结构渐进损伤分析方法,建立了三维有限元热烧蚀模型,并验证了计算模型的可靠性;采用三维Hashin失效准则,结合材料刚度突然退化模式,建立了失效分析模型,仿真分析了热-力联合作用下复合材料层合板损伤演化全过程。结果表明,该方法不仅能够较好地模拟复合材料层合板从局部失效的萌生、扩展直至结构完全失效的全过程,而且可以直观地显示结构的损伤失效模式,预测结构在不同条件下的承载能力。     

基于拟合的吸收光谱反演算法研究*

可调谐半导体吸收光谱技术作为一种先进的光谱检测手段,已广泛应用于大气环境监测、工业过程控制等领域,实现不同领域组分浓度、温度、压力等参数的高精度探测。技术分为直接吸收光谱技术和波长调制光谱技术,通过选取不同的目标函数,验证拟合算法在吸收光谱技术中的可行性,两种技术均可通过构建合适的目标函数结合拟合算法实现吸收信息的精确反演,依据物理过程建立吸收模型,分别将直接吸收技术的光强、吸光度及透过率和波长调制光谱技术的光强及谐波信号作为拟合对象,实现了拟合参数的精确计算,从理论上验证了处理方法的准确性,扩展了拟合算法在检测仪器开发方面的应用,为各领域的发展提供了技术保障。     

强度关联遥感成像技术

过去十多年中,利用光场的量子（或经典）涨落及其关联获取目标图像信息的量子（强度）关联成像技术和基于自适应稀疏结构表象的信号处理技术的不断发展,为图像信息的获取提供了一条可突破传统光学成像技术图像分辨率和图像获取效率理论极限的全新技术途径。文章将概括地介绍这一研究方向,并简要讨论其在遥感领域中的应用前景和需要进一步研究的...     

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. To better limit the growth of the future debris population, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to illustrate and quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. An effective removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.     

基于损伤力学的概率疲劳曲线获取方法

文章基于损伤力学方法获得满足疲劳试验的损伤演化方程,推导出一般条件下的理论疲劳曲线以及相对应的理论中值疲劳曲线与理论理想疲劳曲线；然后根据试验数据即可确定理论疲劳曲线中的参量,从而获取疲劳曲线计算公式。通过此计算公式,可以方便地得到一组以初始损伤为参数的疲劳曲线族,继而得到以失效概率为参数的疲劳曲线族,大大降低了所需试验的数量,并为结构抗疲劳设计和寿命估算提供了依据。     

雷达干扰条件下射击毁伤概率模型研究

基于雷达干扰原理,从信号层面分析了雷达干扰对活动目标侦察校射雷达效能的影响,并给出了干扰条件下的效能指标计算模型。结合典型战术背景,研究了雷达干扰条件下对单个运动目标射击毁伤概率模型,仿真实验表明,该模型有效、可靠。     

“资源三号”卫星三线阵相机辐射质量评价

为了推动＂资源三号＂（ZY-3）卫星影像数据早日为相关领域提供服务,文章采用主观评价和客观评价相结合的方法,对资ZY-3卫星三线阵图像的辐射特性进行了全面评价。分析结果表明,ZY-3卫星三线阵相机图像清晰,信噪比高,能够有效反映不同地物的细节特征,在量化深度和细节表现等方面具有优势。