Solar and interplanetary origins of the November 2004 superstorms

During the first half of November 2004, many solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with solar active region (AR) 10696. This paper attempts to identify the solar and interplanetary origins of two superstorms which occurred on 8 and 10 November with peak intensities of Dst = −373 nT and −289 nT, respectively. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields within a magnetic cloud (MC), and a sheath + MC were the causes of these two superstorms, respectively. Two different CME propagation models [Gopalswamy, N., Yashiro, S., Kaiser, M.L. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207–29219, 2001; Gopalswamy, N.S., Lara, A., Manoharan, P.K. et al. An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks. Adv. Space Res. 36, 2289–2294, 2005] were employed to attempt to identify the solar sources. It is found that the models identify several potential CMEs as possible sources for each of the superstorms. The two Gopalswamy et al. models give the possible sources for the first superstorm as CMEs on 2330 UT 4 November 2004 or on 1454 UT 5 November 2004. For the second superstorm, the possible solar source was a CME that on 0754 UT 5 November 2004 or one that occurred on 1206 UT 5 November 2004. We note that other propagation models sometimes agree and other times disagree with the above results. It is concluded that during high solar/interplanetary activity intervals such as this one, the exact solar source is difficult to identify. More refined propagation models are needed.     

CME dynamics using coronagraph and interplanetary ejecta data

In this work, we present a study of the coronal mass ejection (CME) dynamics using LASCO coronagraph observations combined with in-situ ACE plasma and magnetic field data, covering a continuous period of time from January 1997 to April 2001, complemented by few extreme events observed in 2001 and 2003. We show, for the first time, that the CME expansion speed correlates very well with the travel time to 1 AU of the interplanetary ejecta (or ICMEs) associated with the CMEs, as well as with their preceding shocks. The events analyzed in this work are a subset of the events studied in Schwenn et al. (2005), from which only the CMEs associated with interplanetary ejecta (ICMEs) were selected. Three models to predict CME travel time to Earth, two proposed by Gopalswamy et al. (2001) and one by Schwenn et al. (2005), were used to characterize the dynamical behavior of this set of events. Extreme events occurred in 2001 and 2003 were used to test the prediction capability of the models regarding CMEs with very high LASCO C3 speeds.     

Propagation of normal and faster CMEs in the interplanetary medium

We have analyzed 101 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events and their associated interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005 from the list given by Mujiber Rahman et al. (2012). The aim of the present work is to correlate the interplanetary parameters such as, the speeds of IP shocks and ICMEs, CME transit time and their relation with CME parameters near the Sun. Mainly, a group of 10 faster CME events (V_INT > 2200 km/s) are compared with a list of 91 normal events of Manoharan et al. (2004). From the distribution diagrams of CME, ICME and IP shock speeds, we note that a large number of events tends to narrow towards the ambient (i.e., background) solar wind speed (∼500 km/s) in agreement with the literature. Also, we found that the IP shock speed and the average ICME speed measured at 1 AU are well correlated. In addition, the IP shock speed is found to be slightly higher than the ICME speed. While the normal events show CME travel time in the range of ∼40–80 h with a mean value of 65 h, the faster events have lower transit time with a mean value of 40 h. The effect of solar wind drag is studied using the correlation of CME acceleration with interplanetary (IP) acceleration and with other parameters of ICMEs. While the mean acceleration values of normal and faster CMEs in the LASCO FOV are 1 m/s², 18 m/s², they are −1.5 m/s² and −14 m/s² in the interplanetary medium, respectively. The relation between CME speed and IP acceleration for normal and faster events are found to agree with that of  and  except slight deviations for the faster events. It is also seen that the faster events with less travel time face higher negative acceleration (>−10 m/s²) in the interplanetary medium up to 1 AU.     

Solar and interplanetary parameters of CMEs with and without type II radio bursts

We have analyzed 101 CMEs, and their associated ICMEs and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005. The main aim of the present work is to study the interplanetary characteristics of metric and DH type II associated CMEs such as, shock strength, IP shock speed, ICME speed, stand off distance and transit time. Among these 101 CMEs, 38 events show both metric and DH type II bursts characteristics. There are no metric and DH type II association for 52 events. While DH type II alone is found in 7 cases, metric type II alone is found in 4 events. It is found that the mean speeds of CMEs increase progressively from CMEs without type II events to CMEs associated with metric and DH type IIs as suggested by Gopalswamy et al. (2005). In addition, we found that the speeds of ICMEs and IP shocks progressively increase in the following order: events without metric and DH type IIs, events with metric alone, events with DH alone and events with both metric and DH type IIs. Similarly the Mach number is found to increase in the same order. While there is not much change in the stand-off distance among these cases, it is minimum (∼18 R_⊙) for CMEs with speed greater than 2200 km/s. The above results confirm that more energetic CMEs can produce both metric and DH type IIs for which the interplanetary parameters such as mean values of ICME speed and IP shock speed and Mach number are found to be higher.     

Study of CME transit speeds for the event of 07-NOV-2004

Several methods for CME speed estimation are discussed. These include velocity derivation based on the frequency drifts observed in metric and decametric radio wave data using a range of coronal density models. Coronagraph height–time plots allow measurement of plane-of-sky and expansion speeds. These in turn can enable propagation speeds to be derived from a range of empirical relations. Simple geometric e.g., cone, models can provide propagation velocity estimates for suitable halo or partial halo events. Interplanetary scintillation observations allow speed estimates at large distances from the Sun detecting in particular the deceleration of the faster CMEs. Related interplanetary shocks and the arrival times and speeds of the associated magnetic clouds at Earth can also be considered. We discuss the application of some of these methods to the transit to Earth of a complex CME that originated earlier than 16:54 U.T. on 07-NOV-2004. The difficulties in making velocity estimates from radio observations, particularly under disturbed coronal conditions, are highlighted.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

Energetic particle acceleration by coronal mass ejections

The current paradigm for the source of large, gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that theyare accelerated in coronal/interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Early studies established that there is a rough correlation between the logs of the CME speed and the logs of the SEP intensities. Here I review two topics challenging the basic paradigm, the recent discovery that CMEs are also associated with impulsive, high-Z rich SEP events and the search for gradual SEP sources other than CME-driven shocks. I then discuss three topics of recent interest dealing with the relationship between the shock or CME properties and the resulting SEP events. These are the roles that CME accelerations, interactions between fast and preceding slow CMEs, and widths of fast CMEs may play in SEP production.     

Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.     

Relationships between energetic storm particle events and interplanetary shocks driven by full and partial halo coronal mass ejections

We have analysed energetic storm particle (ESP) events in 116 interplanetary (IP) shocks driven by front-side full and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with speeds $>$400 km s^?1during the years 1996–2015. We investigated the occurrence and relationships of ESP events with several parameters describing the IP shocks, and the associated CMEs, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Most of the shocks (57 %) were associated with an ESP event at proton energies $>$1 MeV.The shock transit speeds from the Sun to 1 AU of the shocks associated with an ESP event were significantly greater than those of the shocks without an ESP event, and best distinguished these two groups of shocks from each other. The occurrence and maximum intensity of the ESP events also had the strongest dependence on the shock transit speed compared to the other parameters investigated. The correlation coefficient between ESP peak intensities and shock transit speeds was highest (0.73 $\pm$ 0.04) at 6.2 MeV. Weaker dependences were found on the shock speed at 1 AU, Alfvénic and magnetosonic Mach numbers, shock compression ratio, and CME speed. On average all these parameters were significantly different for shocks capable to accelerate ESPs compared to shocks not associated with ESPs, while the differences in the shock normal angle and in the width and longitude of the CMEs were insignificant.The CME-driven shocks producing energetic decametric–hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts and high-intensity SEP events proved to produce also more frequently ESP events with larger particle flux enhancements than other shocks. Together with the shock transit speed, the characteristics of solar DH type II radio bursts and SEP events play an important role in the occurrence and maximum intensity of ESP events at 1 AU.     

Origin of coronal and interplanetary shock and particle acceleration of a flare/CME event

By using radio data from ground-based telescopes (from 270 MHz to 25 MHz), and from the Radio and Plasma Wave experiment (WAVES) on board the WIND spacecraft (1–14 MHz and several kHz-11 MHz), as well as FY -2 satellite data, the origin of coronal and interplanetary shock and particle acceleration of the 14 July 2000 flare/CME event (the Bastille day event) have been studied. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) We investigate the causal relationship between metric type 11 bursts observed by the digital IZMIRAN radio spectrograph and type II radio emissions in the frequency range from 1–14 MHz and several kHz-11 MHz observed by the WAVES/WIND. The analysis indicate that the fast CME is the origin of both coronal and interplanetary shocks. (2)According to the time profiles of Hard X-ray, and energetic particles (include proton, ³He, and ⁴He) from FY-2 satellite, it is obvious that the Bastille day event is the event, in which both impulsive and gradual phenomena occur. The energetic particles accelerated not only in flare but also in CME.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

Some characteristics of propagation of flare- or CME-associated interplanetary shock waves

Many interplanetary shock waves have a fast mode MHD wave Mach number between one and two and the ambient solar wind plasma and magnetic field are known to fluctuate. Therefore a weak, fast, MHD interplanetary shock wave propagating into a fluctuating solar wind region or into a solar wind stream will be expected to vary its strength.It is possible that an interplanetary shock wave, upon entering such a region will weaken its strength and degenerate into a fast-mode MHD wave. It is even possible that the shock may dissipate and disappear.A model for the propagation of a solar flare - or CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) - associated interplanetary shock wave is given. A physical mechanism is described to calculate the probability that a weak shock which enters a turbulent solar wind region will degenerate into a MHD wave. That is, the shock would disappear as an entropy-generate entity. This model also suggests that most interplanetary shock waves cannot propagate continuously with a smooth shock surface. It is suggested that the surface of an interplanetary shock will be highly distorted and that parts of the shock surface can degenerate into MHD waves or even disappear during its global propagation through interplanetary space. A few observations to support this model will be briefly described.Finally, this model of shock propagation also applies to corotating shocks. As corotating shocks propagate into fluctuating ambient solar wind regions, shocks may degenerate into waves or disappear.     

Advances in modeling gradual solar energetic particle events

Solar energetic particles pose one of the most serious hazards to space probes, satellites and astronauts. The most intense and largest solar energetic particle events are closely associated with fast coronal mass ejections able to drive interplanetary shock waves as they propagate through interplanetary space. The simulation of these particle events requires knowledge of how particles and shocks propagate through the interplanetary medium, and how shocks accelerate and inject particles into interplanetary space. Several models have appeared in the literature that attempt to model these energetic particle events. Each model presents its own simplifying assumptions in order to tackle the series of complex phenomena occurring during the development of such events. The accuracy of these models depends upon the approximations used to describe the physical processes involved in the events. We review the current models used to describe gradual solar energetic particle events, their advances and shortcomings, and their possible applications to space weather forecasting.     

运用一维太阳风MHD CE/SE模型预报行星际激波到达时间

在一维太阳风磁流体(MHD)数值模拟中, 应用时空守恒元和解元(Conservation Element/Solution Element, CE/SE)方法, 建立了一个行星际激波扰动传播模型(1D-MHD (CE/SE)模型), 用来预报行星际激波到达时间. 收集了1997年2月至2002年8月间的137个激波事件, 对激波到达地球轨道附近的传播时间进行了预测, 并将预报结果与STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2以及SPM模型所得结果进行比较. 对于相同的样本事件, 1D-MHD (CE/SE)模型给出的渡越时间平均绝对值误差并不大于其他4个模型, 且该模型预报的相对误差小于10 %的事件占25.6 %, 小于30 %的事件占69.3 %, 小于50 %的事件占87.6 %, 其预报精度与其他模型相比基本相当. 这表明该模型在空间天气的激波到达时间预报方面有潜在的应用价值.      

Ionospheric response to the June 2015 geomagnetic storm in the South American region

The ionospheric dynamics in the South America (SA) sector during geomagnetic disturbed period from 21 to 24 June 2015 is investigated through ground ionosonde stations and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, supported by Very Low Frequency (VLF) and magnetometer data. These disturbances were caused by 3 interplanetary shocks (IS) derived from 3 consecutives coronal mass ejections (CME) from the same solar active region; the first two CME were caused by filament eruptions, and the third was a much larger full halo CME, associated with a M2.6 solar flare. The first 2 shocks were compressive and did not cause an immediate response to the ionosphere in the analyzed region, while the third shock increased considerably the electron density from low to high-latitudes, triggering the second strongest geomagnetic storm of the 24th solar cycle. It was possible to observe the expansion of the crest of equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) at midlatitudes and high-latitudes mainly due to prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) during the main phase and the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storm during the day.     

电离层等效电流体系对行星际激波的响应研究

行星际激波是导致地球磁层-电离层系统发生扰动的重要原因之一,其可以通过对磁层-电离层系统电流体系的改变来影响地磁变化.本文采用全球三维磁流体力学数值模拟方法,分析了行星际激波作用下电离层等效电流体系的即时响应.模拟结果表明,在激波作用下伴随着异常场向电流对的产生,电离层在午前午后出现一对反向的等效电流涡.这对涡旋一边向极侧和夜侧运动,一边经历强度增强和减弱直至消失的过程.激波过后等效电流体系图像逐渐演化为激波下游行星际条件控制的典型图像.这个响应过程与行星际激波强度有关,激波强度越强,则反向的等效电流涡旋强度越大,寿命也就越短.      

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and IMF in the vicinity of interplanetary shocks

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and interplanetary magnetic field upstream of interplanetary shocks are studied using data of ground-based polar neutron monitors as well as measurements of energetic particles and solar wind plasma parameters aboard the ACE spacecraft. It is shown that coherent cosmic ray fluctuations in the energy range from 10 keV to 1 GeV are often observed at the Earth’s orbit before the arrival of interplanetary shocks. This corresponds to an increase of solar wind turbulence level by more than the order of magnitude upstream of the shock. We suggest a scenario where the cosmic ray fluctuation spectrum is modulated by fast magnetosonic waves generated by flux of low-energy cosmic rays which are reflected and/or accelerated by an interplanetary shock.