CASH 2021: commercial access and space habitation

Issues about commercialization of space have been a growing concern in the past decade for the space community. This paper focuses on the work from a team of 51 students attending the Summer Session Program of the International Space University in Bremen, Germany. CASH 2021 (Commercial Access and Space Habitation) documents a plan that identifies commercial opportunities for space utilization that will extend human presence in space, and will chart the way forward for the next 20 years. The group selected four commercial sectors that show the most promise for the future: tourism, entertainment, space system service, assembly and debris removal, and research and development/production. The content of this document presents the results of their research. Historical activities in each of the commercial sectors are reviewed along with the current market situation. To provide a coherent background for future commercialization possibilities a scenario has been developed. This scenario includes a postulated upon ideal future and includes social, political and economic factors that may affect the space industry over the timeline of the study. The study also presents a roadmap, within the limited optimistic scenario developed, for the successful commercialization of space leading to future human presence in space. A broad range of commercially viable opportunities, not only within the current limits of the International Space Station, but also among the many new developments that are expected by 2021 are discussed.     

Third-party liability insurance and space launches

This article discusses a number of issues related to the US commercial expendable launch vehicle (ELV) industry and government's role in ensuring its competitiveness, particularly third-party liability insurance for space launches. The author finds that the space insurance industry has become a major constraint on the commercial development of space. The future implications are considered of US government involvement with the launch services industry, initially through providing third-party insurance itself. The author concludes that, for a stable commercial ELV industry, it will be necessary for the USA either to establish fair-trade agreements with other space-capable nations, or to maintain a significant government involvement to support the industry.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs,a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The legal regime for private space tourism activities—An overview

“Space tourism” denotes any commercial activity that offers customers direct or indirect experience with space travel. Various models for space tourism activities exist including the use of an aircraft and/or spacecraft. The paper surveys some of the most important legal aspects relevant to space tourism activities, such as, the delimitation of airspace and outer space, the applicable legal regime and the definition of aircraft and space object, authorization, registration, liability, as well as the legal status of space tourists.     

The regulatory challenges of ensuring commercial human spaceflight safety

Space tourism is the term commonly used to refer to ordinary members of the public buying tickets to travel to space and back, but has recently become more broadly associated with “any commercial activity offering customers direct or indirect experience with space travel”. The nascent commercial human spaceflight market presents a challenge to regulators with regard to the potential certification and licensing of the flight vehicles and their use (both within and outside the atmosphere), from the perspective of the operator, the flight participants, and third parties who might be affected by the operations. The UK is currently reviewing the issues posed by this emerging sector and its licensing/certification authorities are considering how best to balance their statutory responsibilities with the need to facilitate the development of this new industry and the favour positioning of UK players, eliminating unnecessary regulatory barriers to participation.     

A cost-engineered launch vehicle for space tourism

The paper starts with a set of major requirements for a space tourism vehicle and discusses major vehicle options proposed for this purpose. It seems that the requirements can be met best with a Ballistic SSTO Vehicle which has the additional advantage of lowest development cost compared to other launch vehicle options — important for a commercial development venture.

The BETA Ballistic Reusable Vehicle Concept is characterized by the plug nozzle cluster engine configuration where the plug nozzle serves also as base plate and re-entry heat shield. In this case no athmospheric turn maneuver is required (as in case-of the front-entry Delta-Clipper DC-Y concept). In our specific case for space tourism this mode has the avantage that the forces at launch and reentry are in exactly the same direction, easing passenger seating arrangements. The second basic advantage is the large available volume on top of the vehicle providing ample space for passenger accomodation, visibility and volume for zero-g experience (free floating), one of the major passenger mission requirements. An adequate passenger cabin design for 100 passengers is presented, as well as the modern BETA-STV Concept with its mass allocations.     

Will China become a military space superpower?

China's ambitious space program was born in extremely poor national conditions in 1956. By 15 October 2003, with the successful return of the Shenzhou-4 manned space flight, it had developed dramatically. While this flight is a milestone in China's space capabilities, the Shenzhou-4 mission should be considered not as an end, but as the entry ticket to the space power club of the USA and Russia. China may now be a space power, but it is not yet a military space superpower in the way of the latter two countries. This paper investigates whether China will become a military space superpower by reviewing the development of its space program. It examines Chinese military space capabilities in terms of their military space potential, and discusses the political, military and economic implications of this issue. Finally, the paper suggests that China should continue to take the road to openness, focusing on commercial and economic efforts. This will be an alternative direction in which the country can consider exactly what space capabilities it needs in order to continue its economic development.     

关于CCSDS无损数据压缩建议的初步研究

无损数据压缩是航天空间任务的重要业务 ,在商用和计算机通信中也占有越来越重要的地位。对 CCSDS(Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems)建议的无损数据压缩的基本原理、编解码方法、系统实现、压缩性能进行了分析研究。对 CCSDS的无损数据压缩建议在空间及其它领域的应用提出了初步看法 ,并指出了扩展和进一步研究的建议。     

Between heaven and earth: The legal challenges of human space travel

Since the first space object was launched into orbit in 1957, humankind has been engaged in a constant effort to realise ever more ambitious plans for space travel. Probably the single most important element in this ongoing evolution is the development of technology capable of transporting large numbers of passengers into outer space on a commercial basis. Within the foreseeable future, space will no longer be the sole domain of professionally trained astronauts or the exceptionally wealthy.The prospects for both suborbital and orbital private human access to space give rise to some interesting and difficult legal questions. It also opens up an exciting opportunity to develop an adequate system of legal regulation to deal with these activities. The existing international legal regimes covering air and space activities are not well suited to large-scale commercial access to space, largely because they were developed at a time when such activities were not a principal consideration in the mind of the drafters. The lack of legal clarity represents a major challenge and must be addressed as soon as possible, to provide for appropriate standards and further encourage (not discourage) such activities.This article will examine some of the more pressing legal issues associated with the regulation of space transportation of passengers on a commercial basis, seen in the light of Article 1 of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which states that the ‘exploration and use of outer space […] shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries […] and shall be the province of all mankind’. An appropriate balance must be found between the commercial and technological opportunities that will arise and the principles upon which the development of international space law have thus far been based.     

Gathering news from space

Developments in remote-sensing technology have prompted suggestions that the news media could soon make routine use of newsgathering from space. A satellite system dedicated to this purpose (a ‘Mediasat’) could supply critical information. Government policy makers, however, fear that the media's use of such technology could affect national security, foreign relations and personal privacy. This article assesses US government policy on current and future newsgathering from space, and the technical potential for a Mediasat system. The authors raise doubts about the commercial viability of Mediasat, and point out that existing media sources already provide information on news stories. They conclude that concerns over the use of data from space will have to be met on a case-by-case basis as the media gain experience, using the same criteria now applied to balance the right of freedom of information with the need for national security.     

Exploration of CASC's Commercial Space

China's commercial space activities started from the launch of Asiasat-1 satellite by a LM-3 launch vehicle on April 7, 1990. As the leading force in China's space industry, CASC has been committed to commercial space for nearly 30 years. The article describes CASC's advantages and activities in commercial space sector, as well as outlook for CASC commercial space development. The author concludes CASC is willing to coordinate and cooperate with state-owned and private companies and will create a new pattern for commercial space, opening up a new industry for space development and achieving more splendid achievement.     

Space spin-offs: Making them known, improving their use

This paper identifies new ideas for using existing space technologies as spin-offs and considers the effectiveness of the use of such technologies for various industries and applications. It then explores the dissemination of knowledge and information about such spin-off technology and applications to various audiences. It proposes methods to improve the dissemination of such knowledge and information. The paper concludes with some recommendations on how the dissemination of information about space spin-offs can increase awareness and use of such technology and, in the long term, increase support for space activities. The perspective of this article is that of the world's various space agencies and the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS). It is recognized that truly effective spin-offs depend on the involvement of those outside the space arena, particularly the commercial, academic and governmental sectors. These sectors and the general public must see the value and cost efficiency of ‘spin-offs’ and of developing new technology and systems through space research programs or they will not succeed. This may require space agencies to stay more focused on research and to hand over functions and activities to these ‘outside sectors’ once ‘seeds are planted’.     

The future of human spaceflight.

After the Apollo Moon program, the international space station represents a further milestone of humankind in space, International follow-on programs like a manned return to the Moon and a first manned Mars Mission can be considered as the next logical step. More and more attention is also paid to the topic of future space tourism in Earth orbit, which is currently under investigation in the USA, Japan and Europe due to its multibillion dollar market potential and high acceptance in society. The wide variety of experience, gained within the space station program, should be used in order to achieve time and cost savings for future manned programs. Different strategies and roadmaps are investigated for space tourism and human missions to the Moon and Mars, based on a comprehensive systems analysis approach. By using DLR's software tool FAST (Fast Assessment of Space Technologies), different scenarios will be defined, optimised and finally evaluated with respect to mission architecture, required technologies, total costs and program duration. This includes trajectory analysis, spacecraft design on subsystem level, operations and life cycle cost analysis. For space tourism, an expected evolutionary roadmap will be described which is initiated by short suborbital tourism and ends with visionary designs like the Space Hotel Berlin and the Space Hotel Europe concept. Furthermore the potential space tourism market, its economic meaning as well as the expected range of the costs of a space ticket (e.g. $50,000 for a suborbital flight) will be analysed and quantified. For human missions to the Moon and Mars, an international 20 year program for the first decades of the next millennium is proposed, which requires about $2.5 Billion per year for a manned return to the Moon program and about $2.6 Billion per year for the first 3 manned Mars missions. This is about the annual budget, which is currently spend by the USA only for the operations of its Space Shuttle fleet which generally proofs the affordability of such ambitious programs after the build-up of the International Space Station, when corresponding budget might become again available.     

Space tourism, private spaceflight and the law: Key aspects

The arrival of ‘space tourism’, or more appropriately ‘private spaceflight’, requires the law of outer space to change and adapt to this revolutionary development, as deriving precisely from the principled private participation in these activities. After defining the proper concepts, this paper discusses key legal aspects of authorisation and supervision, liability and registration, and how they reflect and impact on space tourism. Key legal aspects related to certification of craft, crew and passengers, while not yet much articulated at the international level will also be touched upon precisely in order to demonstrate that the law could well be driven first and foremost by national legislative interests on a domestic level, before (possibly) reaching the level of international law. The possible use of air law or even adventure tourism law to regulate relevant activities is also touched on.     

European small geostationary communications satellites

Hispasat Advanced Generation 1 (HAG1) is the first satellite using the SGEO platform, which is under the development in the ESA Artes-11 program. Since the last presentation in the IAC 2007, a European industrial consortium led by OHB has completed the mission and spacecraft design. The platform Preliminary Design Review has been carried out in May 2008. The customer for the first mission is a commercial operator—Hispasat. The contract was signed in December 2008 and the satellite will be launched in 2012. To give confidence to the customer, SGEO platform will use up to date flight proven technologies. HAG1 carries 20/24 Ku-band and 3/5 Ka-band transponders to provide commercial services. Some innovative payload technologies will also be flown on board of HAG1 to gain in-orbit heritage. SGEO has also been selected as the baseline platform for the ESA Data Relay Satellite (EDRS). Phase-A study has just kicked off in January 2009. The targeted launch date is 2013. Heinrich Hertz will also use the SGEO platform. Heinrich Hertz is funded by the German Space Agency (DLR) and provides flight opportunities for technologies and components developed by the German Space Industry. With the HAG1 contract in hand, and EDRS and Heinrich Hertz in the line, OHB with its partners has the confidence that it will be able to speed up the product development of the SGEO platform for potential customers in the commercial market. This paper will first present the updated platform design and the status of the product development will be followed with the introduction of innovative payload technologies on board the first mission—HAG1 and ended with the mission concepts of EDRS and Heinrich Hertz missions.     

Conceptualizing an economically,legally, and politically viable active debris removal option

It has become increasingly clear in recent years that the issue of space debris, particularly in low-Earth orbit, can no longer be ignored or simply mitigated. Orbital debris currently threatens safe space flight for both satellites and humans aboard the International Space Station. Additionally, orbital debris might impact Earth upon re-entry, endangering human lives and damaging the environment with toxic materials. In summary, orbital debris seriously jeopardizes the future not only of human presence in space, but also of human safety on Earth. While international efforts to mitigate the current situation and limit the creation of new debris are useful, recent studies predicting debris evolution have indicated that these will not be enough to ensure humanity?s access to and use of the near-Earth environment in the long-term. Rather, active debris removal (ADR) must be pursued if we are to continue benefiting from and conducting space activities. While the concept of ADR is not new, it has not yet been implemented. This is not just because of the technical feasibility of such a scheme, but also because of the host of economic, legal/regulatory, and political issues associated with debris remediation. The costs of ADR are not insignificant and, in today?s restrictive fiscal climate, are unlikely/to be covered by any single actor. Similarly, ADR concepts bring up many unresolved questions about liability, the protection of proprietary information, safety, and standards. In addition, because of the dual use nature of ADR technologies, any venture will necessarily require political considerations. Despite the many unanswered questions surrounding ADR, it is an endeavor worth pursuing if we are to continue relying on space activities for a variety of critical daily needs and services. Moreover, we cannot ignore the environmental implications that an unsustainable use of space will imply for life on Earth in the long run. This paper aims to explore some of these challenges and propose an economically, politically, and legally viable ADR option. Much like waste management on Earth, cleaning up space junk will likely lie somewhere between a public good and a private sector service. An international, cooperative, public-private partnership concept can address many of these issues and be economically sustainable, while also driving the creation of a proper set of regulations, standards and best practices.     

International cooperation and competition in civilian space activities

This article considers how the USA can best maintain its commercial and governmental competitiveness in space, while facilitating private investment and international marketing, and at the same time keeping up significant cooperation with other nations. The current state of US civilian space activities in each of these areas is summarized, and several alternative solutions are presented. The article concludes that strengthening US competition with other space-capable nations, and improving US ability to cooperate effectively, will require careful coordination of the activities of federal agencies with each other and with the private sector.     

Omicron space habitat—research stage II

The design presented in this paper is in response to the revolution in private space activities, the increasing public interest in commercial flights to space and the utilization of structures such as space hotels or private orbital habitats. The baseline for the Omicron design concept is the Russian Salyut derived space station module. Salyut was the first space station to orbit the Earth. Its unique design and technical features were what made the development of space stations Salyut 1–7, MIR and the International Space Station (ISS) Zwezda service module possible. Due to its versatility and the reliable operating launch vehicle Proton, this space module series has the potential to be adapted for space hotel development. This paper proposes a conceptual design of the space habitat called Omicron, with particular focus on interior design for the microgravity environment. The Omicron concepts address the needs of space tourism with a strong emphasis on the safety and comfort of the spaceflight participants. The Omicron habitat supports three inhabitants in nominal conditions (e.g., two passengers and one astronaut). The habitat provides a flexible interior, facilities and spaces dynamically transforming in order to accommodate various types of activities, which will be performed in an organically formed interior supporting spatial orientation and movement in microgravity. The future development potential of Omicron is also considered. The baseline version is composed solely of one rigid module with an inverted cupola for observations. An alternative version offers more space using an inflatable structure. Finally, a combination of multiple Omicron modules enables the creation of a larger orbital habitat. The Omicron's subsystems support a few days visit by trained passengers. The transport to the habitat would be provided e.g., by the Soyuz TMA spacecraft carried by the Soyuz launch vehicle in the early stage of Omicron's development, before a fully reusable spacecraft would be available.