Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

New index of long-term variations of galactic cosmic ray intensity

We find that the soft rigidity spectrum of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity variations for the maximum epoch and the hard rigidity spectrum for the minimum epoch calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data (1960–2002) are related with the various dependence of the diffusion coefficient on the GCR particle’s rigidity for different epoch of solar activity. This dependence is stronger in the maximum epoch than in the minimum epoch of solar activity, and is provided by the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turbulence from the maxima to minima epoch of solar activity. We also show that the rigidity spectrum of GCR intensity variations is harder for the effective rigidities ∼(10–15) GV (by neutron monitors data), than for the effective rigidities ∼(25–30) GV (by neutron monitors and muon telescopes data). A general scenario of GCR modulation versus solar activity is settled on the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the IMF turbulence. Therefore, the temporal changes of the power law rigidity spectrum exponent can be considered as a vital (new) index to explain the 11-year variations of the GCR intensity. We assume that ∼(70–80)% of the changes of the amplitudes of the 11-year variations of GCR intensity is related with the changes of the IMF turbulence versus solar activity.     

Effect of random nature of cosmic ray sources – Supernova remnants – on cosmic ray intensity fluctuations,anisotropy, and electron energy spectrum

The random nature of sources (the supernova remnants) leads to the fluctuations of cosmic ray intensity in space and time. We calculate the expected fluctuations in a flat-halo diffusion model for particles with energies from 0.1 to 10³ TeV. The data on energy spectra and anisotropy of very high energy protons, nuclei and electrons, and the astronomical data on supernova remnants, the potential sources of cosmic rays, are used to constrain the value of the cosmic-ray diffusion coefficient and its dependence on energy.     

Temporal variations of the cosmic ray intensity and the magnetic configurations of the heliosphere

Data from worldwide network of neutron and muon detectors are used to study 11-year variations of cosmic rays, over four solar activity cycles. We find that the recovery of the cosmic ray intensity follows one of the two distinct modes. During odd cycles recovery is completed in 6 to 8 years, but during even cycles complete recovery occurs in 2 to 3 years. Two model magnetic configurations of the heliosphere are proposed to understand these recovery modes. Implications of these models are also discussed.     

Study of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy

We demonstrate that the general features of the radial and azimuthal components of the anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays can be studied by the harmonic analysis method using data from an individual neutron monitor with cut off rigidity <5 GV. In particular, we study the characteristics of the 27-day (solar rotation period) variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy, solar wind velocity, interplanetary magnetic field strength and sunspot number. The amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy are greater, and the phases more clearly established, in A > 0 polarity periods than in A < 0 polarity periods at times of minimum solar activity. The phases of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity and anisotropy are opposite with respect to the similar changes of the solar wind velocity in A > 0 polarity periods. No significant dependence of the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy on the tilt angle of the heliospheric neutral sheet is found. Daily epicyclegrams obtained by Chree’s method show that the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy during A > 0 polarity periods follow elliptical paths with the major axes oriented approximately along the interplanetary magnetic field. The paths are more irregular during A < 0 polarity periods.     

The structure of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray 11-year variation

Two phenomena connected with the maximum phase of the 11-year solar cycle in the galactic cosmic ray intensity – the change in the energy dependence of the intensity variations and the double-peak structure in the intensity modulation time profile – are considered for the last five solar cycles (Nos. 19–23). The distinct 22-year cycle in the magnitude of the so called energy hysteresis is observed.The periods of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, characterized by the specific energy dependence of the intensity, are estimated. It is found that the double-peak structures belonging to the solar cycle maximum phase and those around it are very similar both in the amplitude and in its energy dependence.     

Short-term periodicities in the downward longwave radiation and their associations with cosmic ray and solar interplanetary data

In this study downward longwave (LW) atmospheric radiation data for the period of 2014–2020 were used to search for short-term periodicities using fast Fourier transform (FFT). Several local peaks in the power spectrum density were found and established. The time series exhibits a series of significant peaks (exceeding the 95% confidence limit), such as at 273 days, 227 days, 200 days, 178 days, 157 days, 110 days, 120 days, 87 days, 73 days, 53–56 days, 35–30 days, 25–27 days, 21 days, 13 days, and 9–10 days.Moreover, cosmic ray data from KACST muon detector and the Oulu neutron monitor, as well as the data for the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm), Dst index, and solar wind speed for the same period as the LW data, were used to look for common cyclic variations and periodicities matching those found in the LW radiation. This was done to investigate the possible effect of the solar activity parameters on LW radiation. Several common periodicities were observed in the spectra of all the variables considered, such as 227 days, 154–157 days, 25–27 days, and 21 days. Some of the periodicities found in the LW radiation spectrum can be attributed to the modulation of the cosmic ray intensity by solar activity. Others are attributed to the disturbances in the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on the spectral results, we suggest that the solar signals may directly or indirectly affect the variations of the downward longwave radiation, which in turn may affect climate change.     

On the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity for different periods of solar magnetic cycle

The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data is larger in the qA > 0 period than in the qA < 0 period of solar magnetic cycle. The amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic rays anisotropy do not depend on the tilt angles of the heliospheric neutral sheet for different the qA > 0 and the qA < 0 periods of solar magnetic cycle. A good correlation has been revealed between the changes of the amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity versus the qA > 0 and the qA < 0 periods of solar magnetic cycle.     

Evolution of magnetic fields and cosmic ray acceleration in supernova remnants

Observations show that the magnetic field in young supernova remnants (SNRs) is significantly stronger than can be expected from the compression of the circumstellar medium (CSM) by a factor of four expected for strong blast waves. Additionally, the polarization is mainly radial, which is also contrary to expectation from compression of the CSM magnetic field. Cosmic rays (CRs) may help to explain these two observed features. They can increase the compression ratio to factors well over those of regular strong shocks by adding a relativistic plasma component to the pressure, and by draining the shock of energy when CRs escape from the region. The higher compression ratio will also allow for the contact discontinuity, which is subject to the Rayleigh–Taylor (R–T) instability, to reach much further out to the forward shock. This could create a preferred radial polarization of the magnetic field. With an Adaptive Mesh Refinement MHD code (AMRVAC), we simulate the evolution of SNRs with three different configurations of the initial CSM magnetic field, and look at two different equations of state in order to look at the possible influence of a CR plasma component. The spectrum of CRs can be simulated using test particles, of which we also show some preliminary results that agree well with available analytical solutions.     

The transport of galactic and jovian cosmic ray electrons in the heliosphere

An overview is given on what we know about the cosmic ray diffusion process from the modelling of low-energy (MeV) electron transport in the heliosphere. For energies below ∼300 MeV, these electrons give a direct indication of the average mean free paths because they do not experience large adiabatic energy changes and their modulation is largely unaffected by global gradient and curvature drifts. Apart from galactic cosmic ray electrons, the jovian magnetosphere at ∼5 AU in the ecliptic plane is also a relatively strong source of MeV electrons, with energies up to ∼30 MeV. Therefore, when modelling the transport of these particles in the inner heliosphere, a three-dimensional treatment is essential. By comparing these models to observations from the Ulysses, Pioneer and Voyager missions, important conclusions can be made on e.g., the relative contributions of the galactic and jovian electrons to the total electron intensity, the magnitude of the parallel and perpendicular transport coefficients, and the time dependant treatment thereof.     

The challenges in long-term altimetry calibration for addressing the problem of global sea level change

Long-term change of the global sea level resulting from climate change has become an issue of great societal interest. The advent of the technology of satellite altimetry has modernized the study of sea level on both global and regional scales. In combination with in situ observations of the ocean density and space observations of Earth’s gravity variations, satellite altimetry has become an essential component of a global observing system for monitoring and understanding sea level change. The challenge of making sea level measurements with sufficient accuracy to discern long-term trends and allow the patterns of natural variability to be distinguished from those linked to anthropogenic forcing rests largely on the long-term efforts of altimeter calibration and validation. The issues of long-term calibration for the various components of the altimeter measurement system are reviewed in the paper. The topics include radar altimetry, the effects of tropospheric water vapor, orbit determination, gravity field, tide gauges, and the terrestrial reference frame. The necessity for maintaining a complete calibration effort and the challenges of sustaining it into the future are discussed.     

The role of drift and convection–diffusion mechanisms in small energy global cosmic ray modulation: Application to the hysteresis phenomenon of proton and alpha particle satellite data

The hysteresis effect for small energies of galactic cosmic rays is due to two effects. The first is the same as for neutron monitor energies – the delay of the interplanetary processes responsible for cosmic ray modulation with respect to the initiating solar processes, according to the effective velocity of solar wind and shock waves propagation. Then, the observed cosmic ray intensity is connected to the solar activity variations during many months before the time of cosmic ray measurement. The second is caused by the time delay of small energy cosmic ray diffusion from the boundary of modulation region to the Earth’s orbit. The model describing the connection between solar activity variation and cosmic ray convection–diffusion global modulation for neutron monitor energies is here developed by taking into account also the time-lag of the small energy particle diffusion in the Heliosphere. We use theoretical results on drifts and analytically approximate the dependences of drifts from tilt angle, and take into account the dependence from the sign of primary particles, and from the sign of polar magnetic field (A > 0 or A < 0). The obtained results are applied on proton and alpha-particle satellite data. We analyze satellite 5-min data of proton fluxes with energies >1 MeV, >2 MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >60 MeV, >100 MeV, and in intervals 10–30 MeV, 30–60 MeV, and 60–100 MeV during January 1986–December 1999. We exclude periods with great cosmic ray increases caused by particle acceleration in solar flare events. Then, we determine monthly averaged fluxes, as well as 5-month and 11-month smoothed data. We analyze also satellite 5-min data on alpha-particle fluxes in the energy intervals 60-160 MeV, 160–260 MeV and 330–500 MeV during January 1986–May 2000. We correct observation data for drifts and then compare with what is expected according to the convection–diffusion mechanism. We assume different dimensions of the modulation region (by the time propagation X₀ of solar wind from the Sun to the boundary of modulation region), for X₀ values from 1 to 60 average months, by one-month steps. For each value of X₀ we determine the correlation coefficient between variations of expected and observed cosmic ray intensities (the estimation of cosmic ray intensities values is given in Section 3 by Eq. (9), and the determination of correlation and regression coefficients in Section 3 by Eq. (8)). The dimension of modulation region is determined by the value of X_0 max, for which the correlation coefficient reaches the maximum value. Then the effective radial diffusion coefficient and residual modulation in small energy region can be estimated.     

Quantitative contribution of climate change and anthropological activities to vegetation carbon storage in the Dongting Lake basin in the last two decades

The Dongting Lake Basin is an important hydrological regulation and flood storage area in the Yangtze River Basin, which plays an important role in maintaining regional ecological security. The watershed vegetation and its carbon sequestration capacity have changed dramatically due to climate change and human activities in the last two decades. In this paper, the monthly and annual vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) of the Dongting Lake basin during 2000 to 2020 was firstly estimated using the improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model. Then the multi-year NPP change trend and its significance were analyzed based on Theil-Sen median and Mann-Kendall method. Subsequently, the Hurst index was used to simulate the vegetation NPP persistence in the study area. Finally, the driving mechanisms of vegetation NPP changes in the study area were explored using partial correlation coefficients and residual analysis. The results demonstrated that: 1) The annual average NPP in the basin showed a fluctuating and increasing trend from 273.54 to 718.30 g C/m²·yr¹ during 2000 to 2020, and except for autumn, all seasons (spring, summer, winter) and annual NPP series showed an upward trend. The spatial distribution of vegetation NPP is characterized by an asymmetrical horseshoe shape in general, with high values in the west, south and east parts, and low values in the Lake area; 2) During the study years, about 84.38 % of the basin area showed a significant and extremely significant increase of NPP; 3) The future trend of vegetation NPP in the basin shows that the area of decrease (22.79 %) is more than the area of increase (11.35 %). The Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration will generally show a continuous and extremely significant reduction trend, while parts of Dongting Lake will show a continuous and extremely significant increase trend; 4) The correlation between solar radiation and NPP is stronger than the other two meteorological factors (precipitation and temperature). Temperature has a significant inhibitory effect on NPP, solar radiation has a significant promoting effect on NPP, and the effect of precipitation on NPP was relatively complicated. The relative importance of meteorological factors on vegetation NPP was ranked as follows: solar radiation > precipitation > temperature. The impacts of both climate change and human activities on NPP changes showed great spatial variability, and the positive contributions (89.81 % for climate change and 82.87 % for human activities) were both greater than the negative contributions.     

Impact of local and global factors and meteorological parameters in temporal variation of atmospheric potential gradient

In this research work, we have performed comparative diurnal variations of atmospheric Potential Gradient (PG) of fair-weather days by using the data of three stations installed in Northern, Pakistan for the year 2018. We investigated the impact of both local and global factors and meteorological parameters in the diurnal variation of atmospheric Potential Gradient on the annual and seasonal time scale. We observed two peaks, primary and secondary. This is because of the land-based measurements of annual and seasonal variations. The annual average curve of Potential Gradient of all three stations: Islamabad (CES), Muzaffarabad (MZF), and Balakot (BKT) demonstrated a notable deviation from the standard oceanic Carnegie curve. The atmospheric Potential Gradient variations are due to numerous meteorological factors e.g., air pollution, humidity, aerosol particles, fog, and temperature. Among three stations, the MZF station is located in highland (mountainous) and it demonstrated a higher atmospheric Potential Gradient. We further differentiate the results of our three stations with global results for authenticity and observed coherence between them. In addition, a positive correlation of fair-weather Potential Gradient is observed with temperature and a notable correlation between relative humidity and atmospheric Potential Gradient for all the three observatories.     

Estimation of the bias of the Minimum Variance technique in the determination of magnetic clouds global quantities and orientation

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are highly magnetized plasma structures that have a low proton temperature and a magnetic field vector that rotates when seen by a heliospheric observer. More than 25 years of observations of magnetic and plasma properties of MCs at 1 AU have provided significant knowledge of their magnetic structure. However, because in situ observations only give information along the trajectory of the spacecraft, their real 3D magnetic configuration remains still partially unknown. We generate a set of synthetic clouds, exploring the space of parameters that represents the possible orientations and minimum distances of the satellite trajectory to the cloud axis, p. The synthetic clouds have a local cylindrical symmetry and a linear force-free magnetic configuration. From the analysis of synthetic clouds, we quantify the errors introduced in the determination of the orientation/size (and, consequently, of the global magnetohydrodynamic quantities) by the Minimum Variance method when p is not zero.     

Long-term time-varying characteristics of UPD products generated by a global and regional network and their interoperable application in PPP

The quality and availability of Uncalibrated Phase Delay (UPD) solutions are crucial to the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) service, and the long-term temporal variability and its contributing factors should be better understood. In this paper, we comprehensively investigate the long-term time-varying characteristics of each UPD product respectively generated by a global and regional network and their interoperable application in PPP-AR (ambiguity resolution), the sampling of the WL and NL UPDs are daily and 30 s, respectively. Firstly, in terms of our 30 day Wide-Lane (WL) UPD products of 31 satellites, the Standard Deviation (STD) of each satellite WL UPDs ranges from 0.04 to 0.06 cycles, indicating that the long-term prediction accuracy of satellite WL UPD is sufficient for fixing Wide-Lane ambiguities. Secondly, when a satellite in eclipsing the discontinulity may corrupt the determination of Narrow-Lane (NL) UPD in form of offset, as a result of lacking or poor satellite attitude dynamic modeling. When the influence of discontinuity is removed, the STD of our estimated satellite NL UPDs is less than 0.05 cycles. Thirdly, the STD of our estimated receiver WL UPDs is mainly below 0.2 cycles, which implies that its stability is one order poorer that of the satellite. In addition, if they are used for stations in and around the network covered region, the stability of the UPD products from the CMONOC (Crustal Movement Observation Network of China) is better than that from a global network, benefit from the fact that all the CMONOC stations are equipped with the same receiver type. Finally, the PPP-AR results show that a rate of 82.9% for stations with a WL-ambiguity-fixed rate of over 90% while 69.5% for stations with an NL-ambiguity-fixed rate of over 80% can be achieved when using UPD from the global network, which is worse than that of using UPD from the CMONOC (85.7% for stations with a WL-ambiguity-fixed rate of over 90% while 75% for stations with an NL-ambiguity-fixed rate of over 80%). The results of the experiment on the UPD interoperable application in PPP show that the global network UPD products can provide a fast AR at any single station, and the convergence time is well below 25 min. Particularly, when the location of a station is in and around the regional network, our results show that the PPP results obtained using regional UPDs enable the consistent use of global UPDs. When the location of a station is far away from the regional network, using the regional UPDs can not achieve PPP-AR. Finally, the WL UPDs of the previous day is used for forecasting to estimate the NL UPDs, the stability analysis results of NL UPDs solution and positioning results are demonstrate the validity of forecasted UPD products.     

The accuracy of data from ionosondes for the estimation of hmF2 and the identification of global change in the ionosphere

A long temporal series of simulated ionograms was generated with a superimposed secular variation of −14 km/century on the h_mF2 parameter. These ionograms were interpreted by the automatic scaling program Autoscala. By applying four different empirical formulas, four artificial series of h_mF2 were generated and then processed with the same methods used by other authors for real data sets. Data analysis of the simulated ionograms revealed the artificially imposed long-term trend. These results lead to the conclusion, that regardless of the empirical formula used, the accuracy of h_mF2 from ionosonde measurements would be adequate to observe a long-term trend of −14 km/century.