Variations of mid-term periodicities in solar activity physical phenomena

In this work we make an analysis of significant periodicities shown by phenomena linked to solar activity such as coronal hole area, radio emission in the 10.7 cm band and sunspots. We use the wavelet method that gives information in the frequency and time domains. Of particular interest are the mid-term periodicities (1–2 yrs). Over the whole period, coronal holes and radio variations show an important annual variation and a quasi-biannual periodicity. The increase in these variations is most important around the years of maximum solar activity. When the time series are separated in low and high frequencies, the latter are modulated by the general solar cycle. Although somewhat shifted in frequency, these periodicities might well correspond with those found in cosmic ray intensity, solar magnetic flux and other terrestrial and interplanetary phenomena as a wavelet coherence analysis of these series with the solar magnetic flux reveals.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

Solar polar magnetic field dependency of geomagnetic activity semiannual variation indicated in the Aa index

Three major hypotheses have been proposed to explain the well-known semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, maxima at equinoxes and minima at solstices. This study examined whether the seasonal variation of equinoctial geomagnetic activity is different in periods of opposite solar magnetic polarity in order to understand the contribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Sun-Earth connection. Solar magnetic polarity is parallel to the Earth’s polarity in solar minimum years of odd/even cycles but antiparallel in solar minimum years of even/odd cycles. The daily mean of the aa, Aa indices during each solar minimum was compared for periods when the solar magnetic polarity remained in opposite dipole conditions. The Aa index values were used for each of the three years surrounding the solar minimum years of the 14 solar cycles recorded since 1856. The Aa index reflects seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity, which is greater at the equinoxes than at the solstices. The Aa index reveals solar magnetic polarity dependency in which the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the antiparallel solar magnetic polarity condition than in the parallel one. The periodicity in semiannual variation of the Aa index is stronger in the antiparallel solar polar magnetic field period than in the parallel period. Additionally, we suggest the favorable IMF condition of the semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity. The orientation of IMF toward the Sun in spring and away from the Sun in fall mainly contributes to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in both antiparallel and parallel solar minimum years.     

Is the Earth’s orbital motion linked to the spin rotation of the Sun?

Time variations of the magnetic field of the Sun, seen as a star (the data 1968–2018, with more than 27 thousand daily measurements of the solar mean magnetic field), allowed to specify the rotation period of the gravitating solar mass: 27.027(6)?days, synodic. This indicates a presumably unknown physical connection between motions of the Sun and the Earth: in the course of a year our star accomplishes nearly 27 half-revolutions, while the planet itself performs an identical number of its spinnings during one complete axial revolution of the Sun. True origin of this strange Sun–Earth resonance is unknown, but it is supposed the phenomenon might be caused by slight coherent perturbations of gravity within the solar system.     

Solar orbiter, a high-resolution mission to the sun and inner heliosphere

The scientific rationale of the Solar Orbiter is to provide, at high spatial (35 km pixel size) and temporal resolution, observations of the solar atmosphere and unexplored inner heliosphere. Novel observations will be made in the almost heliosynchronous segments of the orbits at heliocentric distances near 45 R and out of the ecliptic plane at the highest heliographic latitudes of 30° – 38°. The Solar Orbiter will achieve its wide-ranging aims with a suite of sophisticated instruments through an innovative design of the orbit. The first near-Sun interplanetary measurements together with concurrent remote observations of the Sun will permit us to determine and understand, through correlative studies, the characteristics of the solar wind and energetic particles in close linkage with the plasma and radiation conditions in their source regions on the Sun. Over extended periods the Solar Orbiter will deliver the first images of the polar regions and the side of the Sun invisible from the Earth.     

Dynamical characterization of the last prolonged solar minima

The planetary hypothesis of the solar cycle is an old idea in which the gravitational influence of the planets has a non-negligible effect on the causes of the solar magnetic cycle. The advance of this hypothesis is based on phenomenological correlations between dynamical parameters of the Sun’s movement around the barycentre of the Solar System and sunspots time series; and more especially, identifying relationships linking solar barycentric dynamics with prolonged minima (especially Grand Minima events). However, at present there is no clear physical mechanism relating these phenomena. The possible celestial influence on solar cycle modulation is of great importance not only in solar physics but also in Earth sciences, because prolonged solar minima have associated important climatic and telluric variations, in particular, during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum. In this work we looked for a possible causal link in relation with solar barycentric dynamics and prolonged minima events. We searched for particular changes in the Sun’s acceleration and concentrated on long-term variations of the solar cycle. We show how the orbital angular momentum of the Sun evolves and how the inclination of the solar barycentric orbit varies during the epochs of orbital retrogressions. In particular, at these moments, the radial component of the Sun’s acceleration (i.e., in the barycentre-Sun direction) had an exceptional magnitude. These radial impulses occurred at the very beginning of the Maunder Minimum, during the Dalton Minimum and also at the maximum of cycle 22 before the present extended minimum. We also found a strong correlation between the planetary torque and the observed sunspots international number around that maximum. We apply our results in a novel theory of Sun–planets interaction that it is sensitive to Sun barycentric dynamics and found a very important effect on the Sun’s capability of storing hypothetical reservoirs of potential energy that could be released by internal flows and might be related to the solar cycle. This process begins about 40 years before the solar angular momentum inversions, i.e., before Maunder Minimum, Dalton Minimum, and before the present extended minimum. Our conclusions suggest a dynamical characterization of peculiar prolonged solar minima. We discuss the possible implications of these results for the solar cycle including the present extended minimum.     

On mid-term periodicities of high-latitude solar activity

The mid-term periodicities of polar faculae are studied separately for the total disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun for a time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. Apart from the 11-year Schwabe cycle which is the fundamental period and is found in all of the three time series, the following prominent results are found: (1) the rotational periodicity of solar activity at high latitudes is approximately from 28 to 32 days; (2) a large number of quasi-periods appearing in low-latitude solar activity (annual variation, 1.3–1.7 years, quasi-biennial oscillation, and 4–5 years) also exist in polar faculae; (3) the periodicities on both hemispheres are not identical.     

Sun–Earth relation: Historical development and present status – A brief review

The Sun and Earth are intimately related. A few decades ago, it was assumed that the relationship was only through the incidence of solar visible and infrared radiation on the surface of the Earth. However, it was soon realized that many powerful solar radiations reached the top of the terrestrial atmosphere but got absorbed in the upper part of the atmosphere, causing significant changes in the terrestrial environment. In this review, various processes are described, first on the Sun where various solar structures evolve, later in the interplanetary space due to escaping solar wind, and further in the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth’s magnetic field, containing it in the magnetosphere and entering through the neutral point in the magnetotail. Resulting phenomena like auroras, ring current, etc., are described. Present status of solar and interplanetary environments and their terrestrial effects is briefly outlined.     

Is the North Atlantic Oscillation modulated by solar and lunar cycles? Some evidences from Hurst autocorrelation analysis

Several studies have suggested that the Sun and Moon cycles affect the Earth climatic dynamics. Nevertheless, there is a long-standing controversy whether solar variability and tides can significantly generate climate change, and how this may occur. Spectral analysis of climatic indices has provided only indirect evidences of the effects of solar–tidal periodicities in the Earth climate. This work addresses the issue by considering the dynamics of the daily North Atlantic Oscillation index over the period from 1950 to 2009. In contrast to previous studies, this work proposes that external cycles can be detected in the autocorrelation dynamics rather than in the raw North Atlantic Oscillation index series. Here, the R/S-scaling analysis is used to quantify, via the so-called Hurst exponent, the presence of autocorrelations along the studied years. Fourier analysis scan of the autocorrelation series thus show two prominent spectral components near (±3%) the lunar tidal 4.425 and the solar 11 years cycles. Intermediate spectral components near 6.4, 7.75 and 8.9 years are proposed to be, at least partially, a result of energy capture from internal mechanisms into cycles resulting from the nonlinear resonance of the fundamental solar–tidal cycles. The dominant effect of the solar variability is clarified by showing that in about 70% of the studied period the sunspot number and the Hurst exponent phases are synchronized, indicating that a higher solar activity enhances the North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability.     

Comparison of solar soft X-ray irradiance from broadband photometers to a high spectral resolution rocket observation

The solar soft X-ray (XUV; 1–30 nm) radiation is highly variable on all time scales and strongly affects the ionosphere and upper atmosphere of Earth, Mars, as well as the atmospheres and surfaces of other planets and moons in the solar system; consequently, the solar XUV irradiance is important for atmospheric studies and for space weather applications. While there have been several recent measurements of the solar XUV irradiance, detailed understanding of the solar XUV irradiance, especially its variability during flares, has been hampered by the lack of high spectral resolution measurements in this wavelength range. The conversion of the XUV photometer signal into irradiance requires the use of a solar spectral model, but there has not been direct validation of these spectral models for the XUV range. For example, the irradiance algorithm for the XUV Photometer System (XPS) measurements uses multiple CHIANTI spectral models, but validation has been limited to other solar broadband measurements or with comparisons of the atmospheric response to solar variations. A new rocket observation of the solar XUV irradiance with 0.1 nm resolution above 6 nm was obtained on 14 April 2008, and these new results provide a first direct validation of the spectral models used in the XPS data processing. The rocket observation indicates very large differences for the spectral model for many individual emission features, but the differences are significantly smaller at lower resolution, as expected since the spectral models are scaled to match the broadband measurements. While this rocket measurement can help improve a spectral model for quiet Sun conditions, many additional measurements over a wide range of solar activity are needed to fully address the spectral model variations. Such measurements are planned with a similar instrument included on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), whose launch is expected in 2009.     

一种基于太阳震荡时间延迟量测的自主天文导航方法

太阳震荡可以在短时间内引起太阳光强度和光谱线心波长的剧烈变化,通过探测太阳光强度和光谱线心波长并记录时间,可以获得直接接收的太阳光到达时间和经天体反射的太阳光到达时间之间的时间延迟,可以利用时间延迟作为量测量提供航天器的位置信息。提出了一种基于太阳震荡时间延迟量测的自主天文导航方法;建立了基于时间延迟的隐式量测模型,并应用了IUKF方法。仿真结果表明：本文所提出的导航方法,应用在转移轨道上的位置误差和速度误差分别约为3.55 km和0.077 m/s,环绕轨道分别为1.76 km和1.57 m/s。同时也研究了3种因素对导航性能的影响。     

Extrasolar space exploration by a solar sail accelerated via thermal desorption of coating

For extrasolar space exploration it might be very convenient to take advantage of space environmental effects such as solar radiation heating to accelerate a solar sail coated by materials that undergo thermal desorption at a particular temperature. Thermal desorption can provide additional thrust as heating liberates atoms, embedded on the surface of the solar sail. We are considering orbital dynamics of a solar sail coated with materials that undergo thermal desorption at a specific temperature, as a result of heating by solar radiation at a particular heliocentric distance, and focus on two scenarios that only differ in the way the sail approaches the Sun. For each scenario once the perihelion is reached, the sail coat undergoes thermal desorption. When the desorption process ends, the sail then escapes the Solar System having the conventional acceleration due to solar radiation pressure. We study the dependence of a cruise speed of a solar sail on perihelion of the orbit where the solar sail is deployed. The following scenarios are considered and analyzed: (1) Hohmann transfer plus thermal desorption. In this scenario the sail would be carried as a payload to the perihelion with a conventional propulsion system by a Hohmann transfer from Earth’s orbit to an orbit very close to the Sun and then be deployed. Our calculations show that the cruise speed of the solar sail varies from 173?km/s to 325?km/s that corresponds to perihelion 0.3?AU and 0.1 AU, respectively. (2) Elliptical transfer plus Slingshot plus thermal desorption. In this scenario the transfer occurs from Earth’s orbit to Jupiter’s orbit; then a Jupiter’s fly-by leads to the orbit close to the Sun, where the sail is deployed and thermal desorption comes active. In this case the cruise speed of the solar sail varies from 187?km/s to 331?km/s depending on the perihelion of the orbit. Our study analyses and compares the different scenarios in which thermal desorption comes beside traditional propulsion systems for extrasolar space exploration.     

Low energy galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere

The flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) extends over a wide range of energies (from 10⁸ to 10²⁰ eV); it has a strong dependence on particle energy. Given the large span of energies the detection techniques, transport mechanisms and other characteristics vary as energy increases. In the low energy region (<10¹² eV) the flux of GCR is modulated by the solar activity. Continuous registers are necessary to study intensity variations that must have their origin in the Sun. Detectors were designed and constructed for the purpose, they operate since the middle of the last century providing valuable information to study recurrent periodicities and their relationship to those of solar phenomena, but also to elucidate whose are the relevant transport mechanisms inside the heliosphere. A brief review of the advancement in the comprehension of these phenomena is presented.     

The solar orbiter mission

Approved in October 2000 by ESA's Science Programme Committee as a flexi-mission, the Solar Orbiter will studythe Sun and unexplored regions of the inner heliosphere from a unique orbit that brings the probe to within 45 solar radii (0.21 AU) of our star, and to solar latitudes as high as 38°. This orbit will allow the Solar Orbiter to make fundamental contributions to our understanding of the acceleration and propagation of energetic particles in the extended solar atmosphere. During quasi-heliosynchronous phases of the orbit, Solar Orbiter will track a given region of the solar surface for several days, making possible unprecedented studies of the sources of impulsive and CME-related particle events. The scientific payload to be carried by the probe will include a sophisticated remote-sensing package, as well as state-of-the-art in-situ instruments. The multi-wavelength, multi-disciplinary approach of Solar Orbiter, combined with its novel location, represents a powerful tool for studies of energetic particle phenomena.     

Periodicities of the LDE-type flare occurrence (1969 - 1992).

The power spectrum was calculated for the time series of the LDE-type flare occurrence during the last three solar cycles (the 20-th, the 21-st and the first part of the 22-nd cycle). LDE-type flares (Long Duration Events in SXR) are associated with the interplanetary protons (SEP and STIP as well), energized coronal arches and radio type IV emission. Generally, in all the cycles considered, LDE-type flares mainly originated during a 6-year interval of the respective cycle (2 years before and 4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum). The following significant periodicities were found: in the 20-th cycle: 1.4, 2.1, 2.9, 4.0, 10.7 and 54.2 of month; in the 21-st cycle: 1.2, 1.6, 2.8, 4.9, 7.8 and 44.5 of month; in the 22-nd cycle, till March 1992: 1.4, 1.8, 2.4, 7.2, 8.7, 11.8 and 29.1 of month; in all interval (1969-1992): 1. the longer periodicities: 232.1, 121.1 (the dominant at 10.1 of year), 80.7, 61.9 and 25.6 of month, 2. the shorter periodicities: 4.7, 5.0, 6.8, 7.9, 9.1, 15.8 and 20.4 of month. Solar variability has an extremely complex time dependence. The Sun is a multiperiodic system. The strong periodicities "near 155 and 270 days" were found also in the LDE-type flare occurrence.     

Sun earth connection coronal and heliospheric investigation (SECCHI)

The Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) on the NASA Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission is a suite of remote sensing instruments consisting of an extreme ultraviolet imager, two white light coronagraphs, and a heliospheric imager. Two spacecraft with identical instrumentation will obtain simultaneous observations from viewpoints of increasing separation in the ecliptic plane. In support of the STEREO mission objectives, SECCHI will observe coronal mass ejections from their birth at the Sun, through the outer corona, to their impact at Earth. The SECCHI program includes a coordinated effort to develope magneto-hydrodynamic models and visualization tools to interpret the images that will be obtained from the two spacecraft viewpoints. The resulting three-dimensional analysis of CMEs will help to resolve some of the fundamental outstanding questions in solar physics.     

Intermittence of the short-term periodicities of the flare index

Intermittence of the short-term periodicities (25–35 days) of the flare index are investigated using the wavelet transform method for the full-disc and for the northern and the southern hemispheres of the Sun separately over the epoch since 1966 until 2002. The wavelet transform results show that occurence of periodicities of flare index power is highly intermittent in time. The period-averaged wavelet power of the flare index presents this fact very clearly displaying independence of flaring activity on the solar hemispheres in several time intervals over almost four solar cycles under study. Moreover correlations of the period-averaged wavelet power of the flare index for the separate hemispheres and for the full-disc reveal significantly stronger relation between the full-disc and the northern hemisphere than between the full-disc and the southern hemisphere while no significant correlations was found between the hemispheres one another.     

Solar cosmic rays in the near Earth space and the atmosphere

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute a distinct population of energetic charged particles, which can be often observed in the near Earth space. SEP penetration into the Earth’s magnetosphere is a complicated process depending on particle magnetic rigidity and geomagnetic field structure. Particles in the several MeV energy range can only access to periphery of the magnetosphere and the polar cap regions, while the GeV particles can arrive at equatorial latitudes. Solar protons with energies higher than 100 MeV may be observed in the atmosphere above ∼30 km, and those with energies more than 1 GeV may be recorded even at the sea level. There are some observational evidences of SEP influence on atmospheric processes. Intruding into the atmosphere, SEPs affect middle atmosphere odd-nitrogen and ozone chemistry. Since spatial and temporal variations of SEP fluxes in the near Earth space are controlled by solar activity, SEPs may present an important link between solar activity and climate. The paper outlines dynamics of SEP fluxes in the near Earth space during the last decades. This can be useful for tracing relationship between SEPs and atmospheric processes.     

Quasi-periodicities in cosmic rays recorded by the KACST muon detector during 2002–2012

In this study, daily cosmic ray data obtained with the KACST muon detector for the period 2002–2012 were analyzed for quasi-periodicities. Power-spectrum analysis was carried out and several periodicities were identified. The results reveal several periodicities at different frequency scales: 817 days (~2.19 years), 617 days (~1.7 years), 475 days (~1.3 years), 421 days (1.15 years), 290 days (~0.8 years), 227 days (~0.62 years), 185 days (~0.52 years), 153 days, 135 days, 120 days, 93 days, 84 days, 73 days, 65 days, 53–45 days, 38 days, 31 days, 25–27 days, 21 days and 13 days. The obtained periodicities are in an agreement with those previously reported by several investigators.The identified periodicities have strong relevance to solar activity parameters such as variations in the interplanetary magnetic field.In comparison, the data from two neutron monitors (NMs), Lomnický ?tít and Oulu NMs, for the same period were used and their power spectra were correspondingly obtained. Similarities and differences in the position of the cosmic-ray peaks measured by the KACST muon detector and by the two NMs have been presented and discussed. While most of the periodicities reported by the muon detector are also found in the NM data, the ~1.7-yr variation is not found. Instead, a shift of 1.6–1.8 years in the NM data is observed which may be due to the limited epoch considered in this study.