The global response of terrestrial ionosphere to the December 2015 space weather event

This paper investigates the ionospheric storm of December 19–21, 2015, which was initiated by two successive CME eruptions that caused a G3 space weather event. We used the in situ electron density (N_e) and electron temperature (T_e) and the Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements from SWARM-A satellite, as well as the O/N₂ observations from TIMED/GUVI to study the ionospheric impact. The observations reveal the longitudinal and hemispherical differences in the ionospheric response to the storm event. A positive ionospheric storm was observed over the American, African and Asian regions on 20 December, and the next day showed a negative storm. Both these exhibited hemispheric differences. A positive storm was observed over the East Pacific region on 21 December. It is seen that the net effect of both the disturbance dynamo electric field and composition differences become important in explaining the observed variability in topside ionospheric densities. In addition, we also discuss the T_e variations that occurred as a consequence of the space weather event.     

Introduction to space weather

The solar and interplanetary origin of space weather disturbances, as well as the related magnetospheric dynamics, will be presented. Besides the involved phenomenology in solar–terrestrial physics, some of the main effects of space weather variability concerning mankind in space and at the earth’s surface will also be discussed. The November 2003 event is shown as an example of the solar, interplanetary and magnetospheric aspects of a space weather storm.     

Effects of space weather on high-latitude ground systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in technological systems, such as power grids, pipelines, cables and railways, are a ground manifestation of space weather. The first GIC observations were already made in early telegraph equipment more than 150 years ago. In power networks, GIC may saturate transformers with possible harmful consequences extending even to a collapse of the whole system or to permanent damage of transformers. In pipelines, GIC and the associated pipe-to-soil voltages may enhance corrosion or disturb surveys associated with corrosion control. GIC are driven by the geoelectric field induced by a geomagnetic variation at the Earth’s surface. The electric and magnetic fields are primarily produced by ionospheric currents and secondarily affected by the ground conductivity. Of great importance is the auroral electrojet with other rapidly varying currents indicating that GIC are a particular high-latitude problem. In this paper, we summarize the GIC research done in Finland during about 25 years, and discuss the calculation of GIC in a given network. Special attention is paid to modelling a power system. It is shown that, when considering GIC at a site, it is usually sufficient to take account for a smaller grid in the vicinity of the particular site. Modelling GIC also provides a basis for developing forecasting and warning methods of GIC.     

Combining frequency and time domain models to forecast space weather

Space weather series incorporate several distinct components, cycles at multiple frequencies, irregular trends, and nonlinear variability. The cycles are stochastic, i.e., the amplitude varies over time. Similarly, the trend is stochastic: the slope and direction of trending change repeatedly. This study sets out a combined model using both frequency and time domain methods, in two stages. In the first stage, a frequency domain algorithm is estimated and forecasted. In the second stage, the forecast is used as an input in a neural network. The combined model also includes a term enabling the model to react inversely to large deviations between the actual values and forecast. The models are evaluated using two data sets, the hemispheric power data obtained from the Polar Orbiting Environment satellites, and the Aa geomagnetic index. All the series are at a daily resolution. Forecasting experiments are run over horizons of 1–7 days. The models are estimated using a moving window or adaptive approach. The combined model consistently achieves the most accurate results. Among single equation methods, the frequency domain model is more accurate for the geomagnetic index because it is able to capture the underlying cycles more effectively. In the hemispheric power series, the cycles are less pronounced, so that time domain methods are more accurate, except at very short horizons. Nevertheless, in both data sets, the combined model works well because the frequency domain algorithm captures cyclical behavior, while the neural net is better able to capture short-term dependence and trending.     

Equatorial secondary cosmic ray observatory to study space weather and terrestrial events

Recently, equatorial secondary cosmic ray observatory has been established at Equatorial Geophysical Research Laboratory (EGRL), Tirunelveli, (Geographic Coordinates: 8.71°N, 77.76°E), to study secondary cosmic rays (SCR) produced due to the interaction of primary cosmic rays with the Earth’s atmosphere. EGRL is a regional center of Indian Institute of Geomagnetism (IIG), located near the equator in the Southern part of India. Two NaI(Tl) scintillation detectors are installed inside the temperature controlled environment. One detector is cylindrical in shape of size 7.62?cm?×?7.62?cm and another one is rectangular cuboid of 10.16?cm?×?10.16?cm?×?40.64?cm size. Besides NaI(Tl) detectors, various other research facilities such as the Geomagnetic observatory, Medium Frequency Radar System, Digital Ionosonde, All-sky airglow imager, Atmospheric electricity laboratory to measure the near-Earth atmospheric electric fields are also available at EGRL. With the accessibility of multi- instrument facilities, the objective is set to understand the relationship between SCR and various atmospheric and ionospheric processes, during space weather and terrestrial events.For gamma-ray spectroscopy, it is important to test the performance of the NaI(Tl) scintillation detectors and to calibrate the gamma-ray spectrum in terms of energy. The present article describes the details of the experimental setup installed near the equator to study cosmic rays, along with the performance testing and calibration of the detectors under various conditions. A systematic shift in the gain is observed with varying temperature of the detector system. It is found that the detector’s response to the variations in the temperature is not just linear or non-linear type, but it depends on the history of the variation, indicating temperature hysteresis effects on NaI detector and PMT system. This signifies the importance of isothermal environment while studying SCR flux using NaI(Tl) detectors, especially for the experiments conducted during daytime such as solar eclipses etc.     

Coronal index as a solar activity index applied to space weather

All possible changes of the solar activity can be expressed by the coronal index of solar activity that represents the averaged daily power of the green corona emitted from the Sun’s visible hemisphere. The representative character of this index allows us to study long-term, intermediate and short-term variations of the Sun as a star. This index can be expressed well as a function of other solar indices. As green line reflects the distribution of the photospheric magnetic fields in the solar corona, the dependence of this index on the solar magnetic field is confirmed by means of statistical analysis of these two parameters. Daily values of the coronal index, as well as of the magnetic field data obtained from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, has been analysed by Fast Fourier analysis and Wavelet Transform analysis for the time period 1966–1998 covering more than three solar cycles. Periodicities of 11.4, 3.2, 2.3, 1.7, 1, 0.29, 0.07 and 0.04 years have been found in both parameters that means once again that the coronal index is probably related to the underlying photospheric magnetic fields and can be used as a global index of solar activity useful for Space Weather studies.     

Solar magnetic feature detection and tracking for space weather monitoring

We present an automated system for detecting, tracking, and cataloging emerging active regions throughout their evolution and decay using SOHO Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) magnetograms. The SolarMonitor Active Region Tracking (SMART) algorithm relies on consecutive image differencing to remove both quiet-Sun and transient magnetic features, and region-growing techniques to group flux concentrations into classifiable features. We determine magnetic properties such as region size, total flux, flux imbalance, flux emergence rate, Schrijver’s R-value, R^∗ (a modified version of R), and Falconer’s measurement of non-potentiality. A persistence algorithm is used to associate developed active regions with emerging flux regions in previous measurements, and to track regions beyond the limb through multiple solar rotations. We find that the total number and area of magnetic regions on disk vary with the sunspot cycle. While sunspot numbers are a proxy to the solar magnetic field, SMART offers a direct diagnostic of the surface magnetic field and its variation over timescale of hours to years. SMART will form the basis of the active region extraction and tracking algorithm for the Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO).     

Study of the ionosphere during a magnetospheric storm using data on the ground and in space

For the magnetospheric storm of May 14–16, 1997 geophysical data of satellites DMSP and IMP-8 are compared with data of radio propagation on the high-latitude HF radio path of Heiss Island – St. Petersburg and data from European ionosondes. Peculiarities of variations of the operational frequencies range MOF–LOF (maximum and lowest observed frequencies) on the path were considered. The range has been determined by the method of oblique ionospheric sounding (OIS). The latter is more informative for observations during a magnetic storm compared to the vertical sounding method. Nevertheless, an analysis of variations of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer from the chain of European ionosondes was carried out. For interpretation of results, data of magnetospheric parameters, AE-indexes and riometer data were used. The variations of both frequency range on the path and critical frequencies of the F2 layer through the ionosondes chain during the disturbed period had certain regularities of behaviour. These regularities are being explained from the physical point of view. The analysis of the satellite DMSP data has showed that a magnetospheric disturbance causes displacement equatorward of precipitation and some growth of its width and energy.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

The ionosphere,radio navigation,and global navigation satellite systems

This article is a review of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) for space scientists who are interested in how GNSS signals and observables can be used to understand ionospheric dynamics and, conversely, how ionospheric dynamics affect the operational capabilities of GNSS receivers. The most common form of GNSS is the Global Positioning System (GPS); we will first review its operating principles and then present a discussion of errors, of which ionospheric propagation is the most significant. Methods and systems for mitigating errors will be introduced, along with a discussion of modernization plans for GPS and for entirely new systems such as Galileo. In the second half of this article the effects of the ionosphere on GPS signals will be examined in more detail, particularly ionospheric propagation, leading to a discussion of the relation of TEC to ranging errors. Next, the subject of scintillations will also be introduced and connected to the presence and scale sizes of irregularities. Scintillations will be examined as spatial and temporal structures. The method of measuring scintillation pattern drift and ionospheric velocity will be discussed. We conclude by examining ionospheric effects on GPS at midlatitudes.     

COST 296 action results for space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling

COST 296 Action refers to the project on Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems (MIERS) in the framework of European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), which is one of the longest-running European instruments supporting cooperation among scientists and researchers across Europe. The main objective of the MIERS project has been to develop an increased knowledge of the effects imposed by the ionosphere on practical radio systems, and for the development and implementation of techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of the ionosphere on such systems. This paper highlights COST 296 Action results that have been achieved during its lifetime period of February 2005–February 2009 with emphasis on space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling.     

On the application of Exploratory Data Analysis for characterization of space weather data sets

This paper presents an overview of the mathematical foundations for techniques in Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) for the purpose of investigating the relationships among the numerous variables in large sets of multivariate space weather data. Specifically, we cover techniques in Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Common Factor Analysis (CFA). These techniques are illustrated using space weather activity indices collected during the year 2002 and the corresponding noon-time hmF2 data from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). A CFA is used to categorize the activity indices, and a PCA is used to derive two macro-indices of activity to ascertain the strength of solar and geomagnetic activity. These macro-indices are then used to compare and contrast IRI’s noon-time hmF2 values at six different geographic stations. It was found that the correlation between hmF2 and the macro-indices more accurately represented the variation of this correlation with latitude found in previous studies than if we used an isolated conventional index, such as SSN and AE. We also found that the daily maximum value of the Polar Cap Index was dependent on both solar and geomagnetic activity, but the closely-related cross-Polar Cap Potential was solely associated with elevated levels of geomagnetic activity, which is a unique result compared to previous studies. We argue that the discrepancy can be explained by the difference in experiment designs between the two studies. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of EDA in space weather studies of large multivariate data sets.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

Response of the ionosphere to super geomagnetic storms: Observations and modeling

The relative importance of the main drivers of positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes is studied using observations and modeling for the first time. In response to a rare super double geomagnetic storm during 07–11 November 2004, the low-mid latitude (17°–48°N geomag. lat.) ionosphere produced positive ionospheric storms in peak electron density (NmF2) in Japan longitudes (≈125°–145°E) on the day of main phase (MP1) onset (06:30 LT) and negative ionospheric storms in American longitudes (≈65°–120°W) on the following day of MP1 onset (13:00–16:00 LT). The relative effects of the main drivers of the positive ionospheric storms (penetrating daytime eastward electric field, and direct and indirect effects of equatorward neutral wind) are studied using the Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM). The model results show that the penetrating daytime (morning–noon) eastward electric field shifts the equatorial ionisation anomaly crests in NmF2 and TEC (total electron content) to higher than normal latitudes and reduces their values at latitudes at and within the anomaly crests while the direct effects of the equatorward wind (that reduce poleward plasma flow and raise the ionosphere to high altitudes of reduced chemical loss) combined with daytime production of ionisation increase NmF2 and TEC at latitudes poleward of the equatorial region; the later effects can be major causes of positive ionospheric storms at mid latitudes. The downwelling (indirect) effect of the wind increases NmF2 and TEC at low latitudes while its upwelling (indirect) effect reduces NmF2 and TEC at mid latitudes. The net effect of all main drivers is positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes in Japan longitude, which qualitatively agrees with the observations.     

Possible DC electric field in the ionosphere related to seismicity

This paper presents the method for calculation of DC electric field in the atmosphere and the ionosphere generated by model distribution of external electric current in the lower atmosphere. Appearance of such current is associated with enhancement of seismic activity that is accompanied by emanation of soil gases into the atmosphere. These gases transfer positive and negative charged aerosols. Atmospheric convection of charged aerosols forms external electric current, which works as a source of conductivity current in the atmosphere–ionosphere electric circuit. It is shown that DC electric field generated in the ionosphere by this current reaches up to 10 mV/m, while the long-term vertical electric field disturbances excited near the Earth surface do not exceed 100 V/m. Such limitation of the near-ground field is caused by the formation of potential barrier for charged particles at the Earth surface in a process of their transport from soil to atmosphere.     

Coronal mass ejection detection using wavelets,curvelets and ridgelets: Applications for space weather monitoring

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that can produce adverse space weather at Earth and other locations in the Heliosphere. Due to the intrinsic multiscale nature of features in coronagraph images, wavelet and multiscale image processing techniques are well suited to enhancing the visibility of CMEs and suppressing noise. However, wavelets are better suited to identifying point-like features, such as noise or background stars, than to enhancing the visibility of the curved form of a typical CME front. Higher order multiscale techniques, such as ridgelets and curvelets, were therefore explored to characterise the morphology (width, curvature) and kinematics (position, velocity, acceleration) of CMEs. Curvelets in particular were found to be well suited to characterising CME properties in a self-consistent manner. Curvelets are thus likely to be of benefit to autonomous monitoring of CME properties for space weather applications.     

The glow of the night ionosphere due to energetic ion beams

This paper discusses photometric measurements made of the ionospheric excitation of the line $\text{λ = 5577}\text{A}\text{?}$ at the time of electron beam injection from a rocket into the Earth's ionosphere. The gradual increase of the glow intensity per impulse occurs due to accumulation of the energy of excited states of N₂(A³Σ⁺_u) and O(′S) during their lifetimes. The large disturbed zone in the near-rocket environment (size >500 m) is connected via the interaction of ions accelerated in the rocket potential field with ionospheric components. The glow intensity modulation is observed at a height of ～98 km during the electron beam injection simultaneously with the ignition of the beam-plasma discharge (BPD). The intensity minima are explained by a decrease of the energy of accelerated ions due to effective neutralization of the rocket body by the BPD plasma. The height profile of the glow intensity revealed two maxima at heights of ～103 km and ～115 km. The second maximum (at ～115 km) indicates that, at these heights, both collision and collision-free mechanisms of accelerated ion energy transport to ionospheric components exist.     

Towards multi-dimensional space weather modeling for energetic oxygen ions in the earth''s inner magnetosphere: Equilibrium configuration

We report the first 3+1 dimensional model development for energetic atomic oxygen ions in the Earth's radiation belts. Energetic Oxygen ions cans be supplied to the Earth's Inner magnetosphere from the sun (as a component of solar wind and solar energetic particles), from anomalous cosmic rays, and from acceleration processes acting on ionospheric atomic oxygen ions. We have built a multi-dimensional oxygen ion model in the following free parameters: geomagnetic L-shell, the magnetic moment, the second adiabatic invariant, and the discrete charge state number. Quiet time, steady state oxygen ion distributions have been obtained numerically from an assumed outer radiation zone boundary condition at L=7, average values of the radial diffusion coefficients, and standard values for the exospheric neutral densities due to the MSIS-86 upper atmosphere and exosphere neutral thermal particle density model. Average distributions of free electrons in the plasmasphere were also assumed with a mean plasmapause location just beyond L=4. We included the six lowest ionic charge states of atomic oxygen (¹⁶O) based on an existing charge exchange cross section compilation by Spjeldvik and Fritz (1978). Computed oxygen ion distributions include the resulting equilibrium structure of energy oxygen ions between 10 KeV and 100 MeV.