Solar cycle variation of “killer” electrons at geosynchronous orbit and electron flux correlation with the solar wind parameters and ULF waves intensity

To construct models for hazard prediction from radiation belt particles to satellite electronics, one should know temporal behavior of the particle fluxes. We analyzed 11-year variation in relativistic electron flux (E>2 MeV) at geosynchronous orbit using measurements made by GOES satellites during the 23rd sunspot cycle. As it is believed that electron flux enhancements are connected with the high-speed solar wind streams and ULF or/and VLF activity in the magnetosphere, we studied also solar cycle changes in rank order cross-correlation of the outer radiation belt electron flux with the solar wind speed and both interplanetary and on-ground wave intensity. Data from magnetometers and plasma sensors onboard the spacecraft ACE and WIND, as well as magnetic measurements at two mid-latitude diametrically opposite INTERMAGNET observatories were used. Results obtained show that average value of relativistic electron flux at the decay and minimum phases of solar activity is one order higher than the flux during maximum sunspot activity. Of all solar wind parameters, only solar wind speed variation has significant correlation with changes in relativistic electron flux, taking the lead over the latter by 2 days. Variations in ULF amplitude advance changes in electron flux by 3 days. Results of the above study may be of interest for model makers developing forecast algorithms.     

Cosmic-ray propagation through the disturbed heliosphere

The stationary, source-free, one-dimensional solution to the cosmic-ray heliospheric transport equation was solved using Runge–Kutta methods. These calculations have been applied to the treatment of Forbush decreases and the evolution of the solar cycle through the heliosphere. Forbush decreases calculated by this method produce spectra that are in good agreement with both the theoretical heliocentric potential and the potential as determined from neutron monitor data. During solar modulation, the effect of the travelling disturbance is to flatten the gradient of the cosmic ray flux in the inner heliosphere at solar minimum and steepen the gradient at solar maximum, as the incoming cosmic rays see solar activity up to a year earlier. The resulting spectra at the earth's orbit are in good agreement with the heliocentric approximation. The heliocentric approximation is an accurate and convenient method of accounting for solar modulation.     

地球低纬区边缘大气密度的预测

基于NRLMSISE-00大气模型讨论日地空间环境对地球低纬度地区边缘大气密度的影响,提出预测地球低纬地区边缘大气日平均密度的简化模型法和经验法。简化模型法利用地磁活动和太阳活动的11年准周期特性,通过预测地磁活动和太阳活动的变化规律以预测地球边缘大气密度。经验法则直接利用第23个太阳活动周期的日平均密度变化曲线经过傅里叶变换处理得到日平均密度变化规律曲线,然后将曲线拟合得到不同高度下的密度昼夜波动规律,再利用预测得到的日平均密度即可计算出具体当地时间对应的密度情况。误差分析说明经验预测法比简化模型法精度更高。两种方法均具有较高的精度并且使用方便,可用于地球边缘大气密度的工程化预测计算。     

Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact

We have made estimations of climatic changes in the 21st century at different scenarios of changes in the solar and volcanic activities using ensemble calculations with the help of a three-dimensional climatic model taking the carbon cycle into account. This model was developed in the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences. An ensemble of scenarios is used for possible changes of the solar radiation flux in the 21st century, based on different methods of extrapolation of the data for the period 1610–2000. Along with this, different scenarios of volcanic activity in the 21st century are used. The results of thus made calculations are indicative of a rather small role played by the solar activity variations in changes of the global mean annual near-surface temperature in the 21st century as compared to the expected anthropogenic impact. Model changes of the global near-surface temperature in the 21st century (possible variations of the solar radiation and volcanic activity included) are characterized by a general increase determined in the main by anthropogenic SRES scenarios.     

Fluxes of low-energy particles in quiet periods of solar activity and the <Emphasis Type="Italic">MgII</Emphasis> index

Low fluxes of protons with energies 0.3–10 MeV were studied during 21–23 solar cycles as a function of the MgII index using the data of the instruments CPME, EIS (IMP8), and EPHIN (SOHO). It has been shown that a) during quiet time of solar activity the fluxes of protons (background protons) have a positive correlation with the MgII index value throughout the solar cycle, b) specific features of variations of the MgII index during the solar minima of 1986–1987 and 1996–1997 can be considered, as well as variations of background fluxes of low energy charged particles, to be manifestations of the 22-year magnetic cycle of the Sun, and c) periods of the lowest value of the MgII index are also characterized by the smaller values of the ratio of intensities of protons and helium nuclei than in other quiet periods. A hypothesis is put forward that acceleration in a multitude of weak solar flares is one of the sources of background fluxes of low energy particles in the interplanetary space.     

Sunspot dynamics are reflected in human physiology and pathophysiology

Periodic episodes of increased sunspot activity (solar electromagnetic storms) occur with 10-11 and 5-6 year periodicities and may be associated with measurable biological events. We investigated whether this sunspot periodicity characterized the incidence of Pap smear-determined cervical epithelial histopathologies and human physiologic functions. From January 1983 through December 2003, monthly averages were obtained for solar flux and sunspot numbers; six infectious, premalignant and malignant changes in the cervical epithelium from 1,182,421 consecutive, serially independent, screening Pap smears (59°9″N, 4°29″E); and six human physiologic functions of a healthy man (oral temperature, pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiration, and peak expiratory flow), which were measured ～5 times daily during ～34,500 self-measurement sessions (44°56″N, 93°8″W). After determining that sunspot numbers and solar flux, which were not annually rhythmic, occurred with a prominent 10-year and a less-prominent 5.75-year periodicity during this 21-year study span, each biological data set was analyzed with the same curve-fitting procedures. All six annually rhythmic Pap smear-detected infectious, premalignant and malignant cervical epithelial pathologies showed strong 10-year and weaker 5.75-year cycles, as did all six self-measured, annually rhythmic, physiologic functions. The phases (maxima) for the six histopathologic findings and five of six physiologic measurements were very near, or within, the first two quarters following the 10-year solar maxima. These findings add to the growing evidence that solar magnetic storm periodicities are mirrored by cyclic phase-locked rhythms of similar period length or lengths in human physiology and pathophysiology.     

Contribution of solar cosmic rays to the formation of the Earth’s proton radiation belt

The significance of the contribution of solar protons to fluxes of trapped radiation in the Earth’s outer radiation belt (L > 2) is estimated for various phases of solar activity. In periods of high solar activity, proton fluxes with the energy 1–5 MeV at L = 2–3 for the bulk of time have SCR as a source, during a minimum of solar activity, trapped proton fluxes are determined by the conventional diffusive mechanism under the action of sudden IMF impulses.     

Statistical Correlation of the Rate of Failures on Geosynchronous Satellites with Fluxes of Energetic Electrons and Protons

A statistical comparison of failures on geosynchronous satellites in the maximum and during the decline of the 22nd solar cycle (1989–1994) with space weather parameters is carried out. A positive correlation of the rate of failures with the flux of relativistic electrons on the geosynchronous orbit and with the proton flux measured before the bow shock front is revealed. The significant positive correlation of the electron flux with the rate of failures is observed during the entire considered interval. The correlation coefficient varies in the solar activity cycle in coordination with the electron flux, and the maxima of the correlation coefficient are observed on the phase of decline of the cycle. A statistically significant positive correlation between the flux of protons with energy of more than 1 MeV and the rate of failures is revealed in the maximum of the solar cycle.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2005, pp. 186–193.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Romanova, Pilipenko, Yagova, Belov.     

Characteristics of high energy cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy on day-to-day basis

Diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity for the period of 1989 to 2000 at Kiel, Haleakakla, Rome, Hermanus, Calgary, and Goose Bay neutron monitors has been studied. Frequency histograms are generated for each year by using the daily values of amplitudes and phases. In the present analysis we have derived the yearly mean amplitude and phase of the diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity. It has been concluded from the analysis that the diurnal amplitude is mostly concentrated in between the amplitude values of 0.1% and 0.4%, whereas the phase of diurnal anisotropy is concentrated in the belt of 100 to 225 degrees. As such, the various characteristics of long-term diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity for the maxima of solar activity cycle 22 to the next maxima of solar activity cycle 23 have been studied. The minimum amplitudes are apparent for the minimum solar activity periods starting from 1995 and up to 1997 at Kiel, Haleakakla, Rome, Hermanus, Calgary and Goose Bay stations. The diurnal amplitude has been found to have almost recovered to its values observed during 1989 to 1990. It is also seen that the diurnal amplitudes are much larger by a factor of two at high/middle latitude stations as compared to that for low latitude stations, where the amplitudes are even ～01% or less during 1996. The phase is significantly earlier during 1996 and 1997 with some significant change starting in 1995. As such, competitive is a continuous decreasing trend in the diurnal phase with smaller change at high/middle latitude and significantly much larger change at low latitudes.     

空间电子、质子和紫外综合辐照模拟试验研究

文章介绍了地面模拟地球同步轨道15年电子、质子和紫外环境的综合辐照模拟试验技术,为长寿命卫星热设计及热控涂层选型提供可靠依据。试验采用空间低能综合环境试验设备、太阳吸收率原位测试系统,针对卫星各种表面材料如S781白漆、SR107-ZK白漆、F46镀银和OSR二次表面镜等进行了空间低能综合辐照试验,与已有的飞行试验数据进行对比研究,结果表明：本次试验能够较准确地反映航天器在轨道上材料的退化现象。     

Solar particle events and the International Space Station

The high inclination orbit for the International Space Station poses a risk to astronauts on EVA during occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. We are currently unable to predict these events within the few-hour lead time required for evasive action. Compounding the threat is the fact that station construction occurs during increasing solar activity and through the peak of the solar cycle. In this paper we present an overview of the risk, the current methods to provide forecasts of SPEs, and potential risk mitigation options.     

Variation of the trapped proton flux in the inner radiation belt of the earth as a function of solar activity

Fluxes of trapped protons with energies above 70 MeV measured onboard the NOAA-15 satellite during the 23rd solar activity cycle (from 1999 to 2006) are analyzed. Comparing to similar experimental data obtained for 1976–1996, regularities of changes in the proton flux at low drift shells (L = 1.14–1.20) of the Earths’s radiation belt caused by changes in the solar activity are discussed.     

Space weather forecast: Principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles)

All significant short-term disturbances of the near-Earth space are caused exclusively by solar flare events and regions in the solar corona with the magnetic field open into the interplanetary space (coronal holes). Flare processes occur as a consequence of the interactions of new emerging magnetic fluxes within (flares) and outside (filament ejections) the active regions with already existing magnetic fields. The observation of emerging new magnetic fluxes and the estimate of their magnitude and the emerging rate allow one to forecast solar flares and filament ejections and estimate their degree of geoeffectiveness. The main agents that visualize the propagation of disturbance from solar flares and filaments in the solar corona and the interplanetary space are coronal mass ejections, the characteristics of which ideally allow one to estimate the possible disturbance of the geomagnetic field, the possible growth of high-energy charged particle fluxes in the near-Earth space. For successful forecast of geoeffective active phenomena on the Sun and their consequences in the near-Earth space, it is necessary to know the situation on the Sun for the last 3 days taking into account the development and characteristics of the current cycle and the epoch of solar activity.     

Dynamics of the 0.3–100 MeV Proton Energy Spectra in the Inner Heliosphere in Quiet Periods of 1974–1991

Variations of the proton spectra in the 0.3–100 MeV energy range based on the data of various instruments installed onboard the IMP-8 satellite are studied for very quiet, quiet, and quasi-stable solar activity periods during the years 1974–1991. As many as 118 spectra were approximated by two power laws: the left-hand and galactic branches of the spectrum were fitted by the AE ^– function and a dependence of the CE type, respectively, the sum J(E) = AE ^– + CE providing the total spectrum. It is shown that the spectra vary within a solar cycle with a shift of the minimum energy (E _min) to higher energies with increasing solar activity. It follows from the relations between the spectrum parameters thus obtained that, in particular periods of time, an increase (decrease) of the particle flux in the low-energy branch of the spectrum and an intensification (depression) of the GCR particle flux modulation take place simultaneously. This is manifested in a shift of the spectrum parallel to the energy axis. The study of the spectra in the most quiet time during three successive solar minima have shown that low-energy (0.3–10 MeV) protons, as well as GCR, are subject to the 22-year variation in the solar magnetic cycle.     

The PROCESS experiment: amino and carboxylic acids under Mars-like surface UV radiation conditions in low-earth orbit

The search for organic molecules at the surface of Mars is a top priority of the next Mars exploration space missions: Mars Science Laboratory (NASA) and ExoMars (ESA). The detection of organic matter could provide information about the presence of a prebiotic chemistry or even biological activity on this planet. Therefore, a key step in interpretation of future data collected by these missions is to understand the preservation of organic matter in the martian environment. Several laboratory experiments have been devoted to quantifying and qualifying the evolution of organic molecules under simulated environmental conditions of Mars. However, these laboratory simulations are limited, and one major constraint is the reproduction of the UV spectrum that reaches the surface of Mars. As part of the PROCESS experiment of the European EXPOSE-E mission on board the International Space Station, a study was performed on the photodegradation of organics under filtered extraterrestrial solar electromagnetic radiation that mimics Mars-like surface UV radiation conditions. Glycine, serine, phthalic acid, phthalic acid in the presence of a mineral phase, and mellitic acid were exposed to these conditions for 1.5 years, and their evolution was determined by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy after their retrieval. The results were compared with data from laboratory experiments. A 1.5-year exposure to Mars-like surface UV radiation conditions in space resulted in complete degradation of the organic compounds. Half-lives between 50 and 150?h for martian surface conditions were calculated from both laboratory and low-Earth orbit experiments. The results highlight that none of those organics are stable under low-Earth orbit solar UV radiation conditions.     

Probabilistic assessment of radiation risk for astronauts in space missions

Accurate estimations of the health risks to astronauts due to space radiation exposure are necessary for future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include high-energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, ?. The risk of radiation exposure to astronauts as well as to hardware from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which could be up to 15% of crew time² on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of solar cycle phase using a non-homogeneous Poisson model [1] to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy>30 MeV, Φ₃₀. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses, for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and for a lunar rover during space missions of defined durations. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.     

Net electric power of concentrating solar mirror systems for application in space as a function of the distance to the sun

The use of solar radiation by means of concentrating solar mirror systems, such as parabolic and spheric configurations, mainly is an engineering problem. A decisive characteristic for the optimisation of a complete system with turboelectric power conversion is the thermal cycle applied. Besides the Carnot process, here taken up into the study as an ideal comparative process, suitable processes for the technological realisation are the Brayton process and the Rankine process. The Brayton process is a typical gas turbine process using only the gaseous phase. The Rankine process is a steam engine process using liquid and gaseous phase.The work in hand shows how such solar systems with turboelectric conversion are optimised with respect to their specific weight (kg/kW_e) and how the distance to the sun as well as technological data enter into the analysis.As expected, the Carnot cycle as an ideal comparative process for both types of systems shows the best results for the optimum specific mass of the system. Regarding the real processes, the Rankine cycle shows more favourable characteristics than the Brayton cycle. The difference of the specific masses of the real processes mainly results from the different thermal conditions at the radiator.The influence of the distance to the sun is as expected. The nearer to the sun the solar power system operates, the better is the optimum specific mass of the system. For distances to the sun between 0.3 and 1.0 AU the spheric system shows a better behaviour than the parabolic system. For distances to the sun greater than 2.0 AU the parabolic system shows better behaviour of the specific weight. In the region between 1 and 2 AU the better optimum specific mass of the system belongs to the technological data used in the analysis.     

太阳风暴及其对人类社会活动的影响

第24个太阳活动周峰年即将到来。太阳风暴由于其给现代人类社会活动带来的巨大灾难,引起了越来越多的关住。文章首先回顾了太阳风暴及其对人类社会活动的影响,然后对历史上1859年卡林顿事件中太阳风暴和近几十年来著名的太阳风暴的强度进行了比较,最后简要介绍了太阳风暴所涉及的科学和技术问题,并且提出了减轻太阳风暴给社会活动带来灾害的对策。     

Unusually high geomagnetic activity in 2003

In 2003, geomagnetic activity was found to be considerably higher than in any other year of the current solar cycle. This was caused by the time coincidence of large low-latitude coronal holes and a significant burst of the flare and eruptive activity of the Sun. The features of recent intensification of the activity are discussed, and the long-period behavior of indices of the geomagnetic activity in the 23rd and previous cycles is compared. The large magnetic storms in October–November 2003 are analyzed in more detail.Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2004, pp. 563–573.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Belov, Gaidash, Ivanov, Kanonidi.     

Relationship between the fluxes of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit and the level of ULF activity on the Earth’s surface and in the solar wind during the 23rd solar activity cycle

We present the results of a cross-correlation analysis made on the basis of Spearman’s rank correlation method. The quantities to correlate are daily values of the fluence of energetic electrons at a geosynchronous orbit, intensities of ground and interplanetary ultra-low-frequency (ULF) oscillations in the Pc5 range, and parameters of the solar wind. The period under analysis is the 23rd cycle of solar activity, 1996–2006. Daily (from 6 h to 18 h of LT) magnetic data at two diametrically opposite observatories of the Intermagnet network are taken as ground-based measurements. The fluxes of electrons with energies higher than 2 MeV were measured by the geosynchronous GOES satellites. The data of magnetometers and plasma instruments installed on ACE and WIND spacecraft were used for analysis of the solar wind parameters and of the oscillations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Some results elucidating the role played by interplanetary ULF waves in the processes of generation of magneospheric oscillations and acceleration of energetic electrons are obtained. Among them are (i) high and stable correlation of ground ULF oscillations with waves in the solar wind; (ii) closer link of mean daily amplitudes of both interplanetary and ground oscillations with ‘tomorrow’ values of the solar wind velocity than with current values; and (iii) correlation of the intensity of ULF waves in the solar wind, normalized to the IMF magnitude, with fluxes of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere.