Space radiation environment in low earth orbit during influences from solar and geomagnetic events in December 2006

In low earth orbit, the SAA region is the dominant contributor to both proton environment and electron environment from the standpoint of radiation dose for spacecraft lifetime. However, the polar region and the horn region are sometimes strongly disturbed due to large solar and geomagnetic events. During large disturbances, enhancements in proton flux are measured in the polar region, which gives temporary more severe space radiation environment than that given in the SAA region. On the other hand, enhancements in electron flux are measured mainly in the horn region corresponding to the outer radiation belt, which are likely sources of high-energy electrons in the inner radiation belt. These short-term disturbances have another radiation hazard to spacecraft such as single event and electrostatic discharge.     

The atmospheric radiation response to solar-particle-events.

High-energy solar particles, produced in association with solar flares and coronal mass ejections, occasionally bombard the earth's atmosphere. resulting in radiation intensities additional to the background cosmic radiation. Access of these particles to the earth's vicinity during times of geomagnetic disturbances are not adequately described by using static geomagnetic field models. These solar fluxes are also often distributed non uniformly in space, so that fluxes measured by satellites obtained at great distances from the earth and which sample large volumes of space around the earth cannot be used to predict fluxes locally at the earth's surface. We present here a method which uses the ground-level neutron monitor counting rates as adjoint sources of the flux in the atmosphere immediately above them to obtain solar-particle effective dose rates as a function of position over the earth's surface. We have applied this approach to the large September 29-30, 1989 ground-level event (designated GLE 42) to obtain the magnitude and distribution of the solar-particle effective dose rate from an atypically large event. The results of these calculations clearly show the effect of the softer particle spectra associated with solar particle events, as compared with galactic cosmic rays, results in a greater sensitivity to the geomagnetic field, and, unlike cosmic rays, the near-absence of a "knee" near 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude.     

The features of radiation dose variations onboard ISS and Mir space station: comparative study.

The dynamics of the ISS-measured radiation dose variations since August 2000 is studied. Use is made of the data obtained with the R-16 instrument, which consists of two ionization chambers behind different shielding thicknesses. The doses recorded during solar energetic particle (SEP) events are compared with the data obtained also by R-16 on Mir space station. The SEP events in the solar maximum of the current cycle make a much smaller contribution to the radiation dose compared with the October 1989 event recorded on Mir space station. In the latter event, the proton intensity was peaking during a strong magnetic storm. The storm-time effect of solar proton geomagnetic cutoff decreases on dose variations is estimated. The dose variations on Mir space stations due to formation of a new radiation belt of high-energy protons and electrons during a sudden commencement of March 24, 1991 storm are also studied. It was for the first time throughout the ISS and Mir dose measurement period that the counting rates recorded by both R-16 channels on ISS in 2001-2002 were nearly the same during some time intervals. This effect may arise from the decreases of relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt.     

Energetic particle environment in near-Earth orbit.

The hazard of exposure to high doses of ionizing radiation is one of the primary concerns of extended manned space missions and a continuous threat for the numerous spacecraft in operation today. In the near-Earth environment the main sources of radiation are solar energetic particles (SEP), galactic cosmic rays (GCR), and geomagnetically trapped particles, predominantly protons and electrons. The intensity of the SEP and GCR source depends primarily on the phase of the solar cycle. Due to the shielding effect of the Earth's magnetic field, the observed intensity of SEP and GCR particles in a near-Earth orbit will also depend on the orbital parameters altitude and inclination. The magnetospheric source strength depends also on these orbital parameters because they determine the frequency and location of radiation belt passes. In this paper an overview of the various sources of radiation in the near-Earth orbit will be given and first results obtained with the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) will be discussed. SAMPEX was launched on 3 July 1992 into a near polar (inclination 82 degrees) low altitude (510 x 675 km) orbit. The SAMPEX payload contains four separate instruments of high sensitivity covering the energy range 0.5 to several hundred MeV/nucleon for ions and 0.4 to 30 MeV for electrons. This low altitude polar orbit with zenith-oriented instrumentation provides a new opportunity for a systematic study of the near-Earth energetic particle environment.     

Low energy ions in the heavy ions in space (HIIS) experiment on LDEF.

We present data from the Lexan top stacks in the Heavy Ions In Space (HIIS) experiment which was flown for six years (April 1984-Jan 1990) onboard the LDEF spacecraft in 28.5 degrees orbit at about 476 km altitude. HIIS was built of passive (i.e. no timing resolution) plastic track detectors which collected particles continuously over the entire mission. In this paper we present data on low energy heavy ions (10 < or = Z, 20MeV/nuc < E < 200 MeV/nuc). These ions are far below the geomagnetic cutoff for fully ionized ions in the LDEF orbit even after taking into account the severe cutoff suppression caused by occasional large geomagnetic storms during the LDEF mission. Our preliminary results indicate an unusual elemental composition of trapped particles in the inner magnetosphere during the LDEF mission, including both trapped anomalous cosmic ray species (Ne, Ar) and other elements (such as Mg and Fe) which are not found in the anomalous component of cosmic rays. The origin of the non-anomalous species is not understood, but they may be associated with the solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic disturbances of 1989.     

Modeling solar proton access to geostationary spacecraft with geomagnetic cutoffs

Solar energetic particle (SEP) cutoffs at geosynchronous orbit are sensitive to moderate geomagnetic activity and undergo daily variations due to the day–night asymmetry of the magnetosphere. At geosynchronous orbit, cutoff rigidity also has a large directional dependence, with the highest cutoff rigidity corresponding to ions arriving from magnetic east and lowest cutoff rigidity corresponding to ions incident from the west. Consequently, during geomagnetically quiet periods, the SEP flux observed by an eastward facing particle detector is significantly lower than observed by a westward facing particle detector. During geomagnetically disturbed periods the cutoff is suppressed allowing SEPs access well inside of geosynchronous, so that the east–west SEP flux ratio approaches unity. Variations in the east–west SEP flux ratio observed by GOES Energetic Particle Sensors (EPS) have recently been reported by Rodriguez et al. (2010). In NOAA’s operational processing of EPS count rates into differential fluxes, the differential flux is treated as isotropic and flat over the energy width of the channel. To compare modeled SEP flux with GOES EPS observations, the anisotropy of the flux over the EPS energy range and field of view must be taken into account. A technique for making direct comparisons between GOES EPS observations and SEP flux modeled using numerically computed geomagnetic cutoffs is presented. Initial results from a comparison between modeled and observed flux during the 6–11 December 2006 SEP event are also presented. The modeled cutoffs reproduce the observed flux variations well but are in general too high.     

A comparison of two different types of geosynchronous satellite measurements during the 1989 solar proton events.

The proton telescope aboard the GOES-7 satellite continuously records the proton flux at geosynchronous orbit, and therefore provides a direct measurement of the energetic protons arriving during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Microelectronic devices are susceptible to single event upset (SEU) caused by both energetic protons and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) ions. Some devices are so sensitive that their upsets can be used as a dosimetric indicator of a high fluence of particles. The 93L422 1K SRAM is one such device. Eight of them are on the TDRS-1 satellite in geosynchronous orbit, and collectively they had been experiencing 1-2 upset/day due to the GCR background. During the large SEP events of 1989 the upset rate increased dramatically, up to about 250 for the week of 19 Oct, due to the arrival of the SEP protons. Using the GOES proton spectra, the proton-induced SEU cross section curve for the 93L422 and the shielding distribution around the 93L422, the calculated upsets based on the GOES satellite data compared well against the log of measured upsets on TDRS-1.     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Proton flare and magnetic storm effect in the vicinity of the Earth.

We have developed a model and associated computational procedure for estimating energetic proton exposures during a major solar proton event that occur in combination with a large magnetic storm. Transmission functions for solar protons are computed using geomagnetic vertical cutoff data for quiescent and disturbed conditions. Predicted exposures in low altitude polar orbit are found to be orders of magnitude greater for severe magnetic storm conditions than are corresponding exposures in the absence of major disturbances. We examine the response scenario for the events of November 1960 as an example.     

1 AU轨道SEP粒子通量的计算及与多卫星观测结果的比较

1 AU轨道上太阳高能粒子(Solar Energetic Particles,SEP)通量是空间天气的重要指标.将SEP两步传播方程的格林函数解进行数值化,模拟了2012年9月28日的SEP事件,首次计算了同一事件中GOES卫星与STEREO双星观测到的SEP通量变化过程.对GOES和STEREO-B观测点,计算所得SEP峰值I_max和峰值到达时间t_max与观测值符合较好;对STEREO-A,由于观测点与太阳活动源区间隔较大及太阳背面未知事件的影响,计算结果与观测存在一定差异.      

Calculations and observations of solar particle enhancements to the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes.

Solar particle events can give greatly enhanced radiation at aircraft altitudes, but are both difficult to predict and to calculate retrospectively. This enhanced radiation can give significant dose to aircrew and greatly increase the rate of single event effects in avionics. Validation of calculations is required but only very few events have been measured in flight. The CREAM detector on Concorde detected the event of 29 September 1989 and also four periods of enhancement during the events of 19-24 October 1989. Instantaneous rates were enhanced by up to a factor ten compared with quiet-time cosmic rays, while flight-averages were enhanced by up to a factor six. Calculations are described for increases in radiation at aircraft altitudes using solar particle spectra in conjunction with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. In order to obtain solar particle spectra with sufficient accuracy over the required energy range it is necessary to combine space data with measurements from a wide range of geomagnetically dispersed, ground-level neutron monitors. Such spectra have been obtained for 29 September 1989 and 24 October 1989 and these are used to calculate enhancements that are compared with the data from CREAM on Concorde. The effect of cut-off rigidity suppression by geomagnetic activity is shown to be significant. For the largest event on record on 23 February 1956, there are no space data but there are data from a number of ground-level cosmic-ray detectors. Predictions for all events show very steep dependencies on both latitude and altitude. At high latitude and altitude (17 km) calculated increases with respect to cosmic rays are a factor 70 and 500 respectively for 29 September 1989 and 23 February 1956. The levels of radiation for high latitude, subsonic routes are calculated, using London to Los Angeles as an example, and can exceed 1 mSv, which is significantly higher than for Concorde routes from Europe to New York. The sensitivity of the calculations to spectral fitting, geomagnetic activity and other assumptions demonstrates the requirement for widespread carriage of radiation monitors on aircraft.     

模糊聚类分析在耀斑-地磁扰动研究中的初步应用

本文运用模糊聚类分析的方法,对1975—1983年可证认出的210个耀斑-IPS激波事件进行了分析研究,给出了它们的聚类指标和模糊等价关系以及大、中、小三类耀斑-磁扰的聚类中心。初步研究结果表明:95％的耀斑-IPS激波会引起地磁扰动(∑Kp≥16);对持续1小时以上的二级耀斑和2小时以上的一级耀斑,以及多个射电源的IPS观测均出现50km/8以上的速度跳跃这类大耀斑-IPS激波事件进行模糊聚类磁扰强弱预报试验,其准确率可达80％;这种大耀斑-IPS激波事件所对应的地磁扰动变化范围很宽,从∑Kp≥12直到∑Kp≤54,这说明耀斑-激波在行星际空间的传播以及向地球的传输过程是十分复杂的。      

The impact of large solar events on the total electron content of the ionosphere at mid latitudes

Ionospheric disturbances associated with solar activity may occur via two basic mechanisms. The first is related to the direct impact on the ionosphere of EUV photons from a flare, and the second by prompt electric field penetration into the magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms. In this paper we examine the possibility that these two mechanisms may have an impact at mid latitudes by calculating the total electron content (TEC) from GPS stations in Mexico during several large X-ray flares. We have found that indeed large, complex flares, which are well located, may affect the mid latitude ionosphere. In fact, in the solar events of July 14, 2000 and April 2001 storms, ionospheric disturbances were observed to increase up to 138 and 150 TECu, respectively, due to the influence of EUV photons. Also, during the solar events of July 2000, April 2001, Halloween 2003, January 2005 and December 2006, there are large ionospheric disturbances (up to 393 TECu in the Halloween Storms), due to prompt penetration electric field, associated with CME producing geomagnetic storm.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

冕洞相关地磁Ap指数中短期预报方法研究

地磁Ap指数是描述全球地磁活动水平的重要指数, 过去许多参考大气模式中都用Ap指数来表述地磁活动状态, 大气模式的运行需要输入地磁Ap指数, 因此, 地磁Ap指数的预报一直是空间环境预报中一个非常重要的内容. 针对太阳活动低年冕洞引起的地磁扰动具有明显27天重现的特性, 利用修正的自回归方法, 对地磁Ap指数进行了提前27天的预报; 采用从SOHO/EIT观测资料发展出来的描述冕洞特性的Pch因子, 进行了提前三天的地磁Ap指数预报. 结果显示, 将统计方法与物理分析相结合, 进行地磁Ap指数的中短期数值预报, 可以得到较好的预报效果.      

On the early phase of relativistic solar particle events: Are there signatures of acceleration mechanism?

Many physical processes precede and accompany the solar energetic particles (SEP) occurrence on the Earth’s orbit. Explosive energy release on the Sun gives rise to a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME). X-ray and gamma emissions are believed to be connected with flares. Radio emission is signature of disturbances traveling through the corona and interplanetary space. Particles can gain energy both in the flare and the accompanying wave processes. The beginning of the SEP events has the advantage of being the phase most close to the time of acceleration. Influence of interplanetary transport is minimal in the case of first arriving relativistic solar protons recorded by ground based neutron monitors in so called ground-level enhancements (GLE). The early phase of the SEP events attracts attention of many scientists searching for the understanding of particle acceleration. However, they come to the opposite conclusions. While some authors find arguments for coronal mass ejections as a sole accelerator of SEPs, others prove a flare to be the SEP origin. Here, the circumstances of SEP generation for several GLEs of the 23rd solar cycle are considered. Timing of X-ray, CME, and radio emissions shows a great variety from event to event. However, the time of particle ejection from the Sun is closer to maximum of X-ray emission than to any other phenomena considered. No correlation is found between the particle fluxes and the CME characteristics.     

Cosmic ray exposure factors for Shuttle altitudes derived from calculated cut-off rigidities.

The allowed cosmic radiation flux accessible to an earth-orbiting spacecraft is a complex function of the satellite position and the geomagnetic cutoff characteristics at each zenith and azimuth angle at each position. We have determined cosmic ray exposure factors for the galactic cosmic ray spectrum for typical shuttle altitudes and inclinations up to 50 degrees. We have utilized d world grid of trajectory-derived cutoff rigidity calculations at 400 km altitude to determine geomagnetic transmission functions that permit a simple and direct calculation of the allowed cosmic ray spectrum to a 400 km satellite orbit. If the interplanetary cosmic ray spectrum is multiplied by the orbit-averaged geomagnetic transmission function the result is the allowed cosmic ray spectrum at the spacecraft.     

Description, analysis and impact of major solar activity during recent U.S. Shuttle missions.

Since STS-26, three large solar events have occurred during Shuttle missions; a geomagnetic storm during STS-29 and solar particle events (SPEs) during STS-28 and -34. The maximum dose to a crew attributed to an SPE was estimated to be 30 microGy (70 microSv). Time-resolved dosimetry measurements of the SPE dose during STS-28 were made using the Air Force Radiation Monitoring Equipment (RME)-III. Comparison of calculated and measured dose demonstrated a discrepancy, possibly a result of deficiencies in the geomagnetic cutoff model used. This experience demonstrates that dose from an SPE is strongly dependent on numerous factors such as orbit inclination, SPE start time, spectral parameters and geomagnetic field conditions; the exact combination of these factors is fortuitous. New sources of data and procedures are being investigated, including real-time tracking of auroral oval positions or determination of particle cutoff latitudes, for incorporation into operational Shuttle radiation support practices.     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。