THE SIGNAL OF THE 11-YEAR SUNSPOT CYCLE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE-LOWER STRATOSPHERE

The paper summarizes work by the authors over the past ten years on an apparent signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the lower stratosphere-upper troposphere. The signal appears as a basic, consistent pattern in correlations between heights of stratospheric constant-pressure levels, at least as high as 25 km, and the solar cycle in which the highest correlations are in the subtropics.The variation of the stratospheric heights in phase with the sunspot cycle are – in the areas of high correlations between the two – associated with temperature variations on the same time scale in the middle and upper troposphere. The spatial distribution of the correlations suggests that the year-to-year changes in tropical and subtropical vertical motions contain a component on the time scale of the solar cycle.In January and February the correlations with the sunspot cycle are smallest. The smallness of the correlations is owing to the fact that they are different in the east and west years of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratospheric winds. The correlation pattern in the east years is the same as in the other seasons and is statistically significant. In the west years the correlations are insignificant outside the arctic, and the positive correlation in the arctic in these years is related to the fact that major midwinter breakdowns of the cyclonic vortex in the west years so far have happened only at maxima in the solar cycle.Until recently reliable continuous series of analyses of the stratosphere were not available for the southern hemisphere. The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have now, however, issued a 23-year series of re-analyzed global data which has made it possible to detect the solar signal on the southern hemisphere. It turns out to be almost the same as that on the northern hemisphere.The correlations between total column ozone and the sunspot cycle are lowest in the equatorial regions, where ozone is produced, and in the subpolar regions, where the largest amounts are found. In the annual mean the largest correlations lie between 5° lat. and 30° lat. We suggest that this distribution of correlations is due to the fact that the subtropical heights of the constant-pressure surfaces in the ozone layer are higher in maximum than in minimum years of the sunspot cycle, and that the higher subtropical heights in the solar maxima depress the poleward transport of ozone through the subtropics and thus create an abundance of ozone.     

Solar Variation and Stratospheric Response

We have shown in several recent publications that it is necessary to group the meteorological data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) throughout the year, in order to find a clear signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC). This work is summarized here. It is the purpose of this paper (1) to update earlier results of the solar cycle – QBO relationship for the northern winter, (2) to stress the interaction between the hemispheres and (3) to summarize the influence of the QBO on the solar variability signal, as well as the influence of the solar variability signal on the QBO throughout the year. For this, the constructed annual mean of the solar cycle – QBO relationship is introduced.     

Influence of the Solar Cycle on the General Circulation of the Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

The record of dynamical structure reveals a systematic variation that operates coherently with the 11-yr variation of UV irradiance. Involving periods shorter than 5 years, the systematic variation reflects the influence of the QBO on the polar-night vortex. It has the same basic structure as interannual changes associated with the residual mean circulation of the stratosphere. A signature of the solar cycle also appears in the direct correlation to solar flux, as recovered through regression of the entire monthly record. That signature, however, is sharply enhanced around solstice, when the residual circulation is active, and during extremal phases of the QBO. In the tropics, the solar signature follows, throughout the year, from a decadal modulation in the frequency of the QBO. The modulation is manifested to either side of the QBO’s mean frequency, in two spectral peaks where the QBO dwells: one at (24 months)⁻¹, reflecting a Biennial Oscillation (BO), and another at (36 months)^-1. Intrinsic to the QBO, those peaks are separated from its mean frequency by ∼11 years⁻¹.Through the QBO’s residual circulation, the decadal modulation introduces anomalies in the subtropics, with symmetry about the equator. Accompanying anomalous temperature in the subtropics is a stronger signature over the winter pole. Discovered by Labitzke and van Loon 1988, that solar signature reflects anomalous downwelling of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. It is shown to follow through the BO, which is intrinsic to the QBO and its modulation of the polar-night vortex.     

A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere

Observational evidence of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) modulation of stratosphere temperatures and winds from the ERA-40 dataset is reviewed, with emphasis on the Northern winter hemisphere. A frequency modulation of sudden warming events is noted, with warmings occurring earlier in solar minimum periods than in solar maximum periods. The observed interaction between the influence of the SC and the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) on the frequency of sudden warmings is noted as a possible clue for understanding their mechanism of influence. A possible transfer route for the 11-year solar cycle from the equatorial stratopause region to the lowest part of the stratosphere is proposed, via an influence on sudden warming events and the associated induced meridional circulation. SC and QBO composites of zonal wind anomalies show anomalous wind distributions in the subtropical upper stratosphere in early winter. Mechanistic model experiments are reviewed that demonstrate a sensitivity of sudden warmings to small wind anomalies in this region. Various diagnostics from these experiments are shown, including EP fluxes and their divergence and also the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex, in order to understand the mechanism of the influence. Some recent GCM experiments to investigate the SC/QBO interaction are also described. They simulate reasonably well the observed SC/QBO interaction of sudden warming events and appear to support the hypothesis that tropical/subtropical upper stratospheric wind anomalies are an important influence on the timing of sudden warmings.     

Coronal holes and solar magnetic fields

Since 1972, nearly continuous observations of coronal holes and their associated photospheric magnetic fields have been made using a variety of satellite and ground-based equipment. The results of comparisons of these observations are reviewed and it is demonstrated that the structure and evolution of coronal holes is basically governed by the large-scale distribution of photospheric magnetic flux. Non-polar holes form in the decaying remnants of bipolar magnetic regions in areas with a large-scale flux imbalance. There is strong indirect evidence that the magnetic field in coronal holes is always open to interplanetary space but not all open-field regions have associated coronal holes. The well-observed declining phase of the last solar cycle was characterized by stable magnetic field and coronal hole patterns which were associated with recurrent, high-speed wind streams and interplanetary magnetic field patterns at the Earth. The ascending phase of the current cycle has been characterized by transient magnetic field and coronal hole patterns which tend to occur at high solar latitudes. This shift in magnetic field and coronal hole patterns has resulted in a less obvious and more complicated association with high-speed wind streams at the Earth.Proceedings of the Symposium on Solar Terrestrial Physics held in Innsbruck, May–June 1978.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory.     

The Influence of the 11-year Solar Cycle on the Stratosphere Below 30 km: a Review

The NCEP/NCAR re-analyses of the global data as high as 10hPa have made it possible to examine the influence of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the lower stratosphere over the entire globe. Previously, the signal of the solar cycle had been detected in the temperatures and heights of the stratosphere at 30hPa and below on the Northern Hemisphere by means of a data set from the Freie Universität Berlin. The global re-analyses show that the signal exists on the Southern Hemisphere too, and that it is almost a mirror image of that on the Northern Hemisphere. The largest temperature correlations with the solar cycle move from one summer hemisphere to the other, and the largest height correlations move poleward within each hemisphere from winter to summer.The correlations are weakest over the whole globe in the northern winter. If, however, one divides the data into the winters when the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation was easterly or westerly, the arctic correlations become positive and large in the west years, but insignificantly small over the rest of the earth. The correlations in the east years are negative in the Arctic but positive in the subtropics and tropics on both hemispheres.The difference between the east and west years in January-February can be ascribed to the fact that the dominant stratospheric teleconnection and the solar influence work in the same direction in the east years but oppose each other in the west years.NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

常重力及微重力下液氢膜态沸腾换热预测

以液氢膜态沸腾换热为对象,收集并分析文献中涉及液氢膜态沸腾换热的实验数据。通过充分的对比研究,考核3种典型关系式针对液氢膜态沸腾换热预测的适用性与预测精度,建立可预测微重力下液氢膜态沸腾换热热流密度的数学关系式。研究发现:在地面重力下,加热面几何结构、朝向似乎不会对沸腾换热热流密度产生明显影响,均可采用Breen & Westwater公式预测其传热系数;而重力水平会对膜态沸腾换热产生较大影响,且不同重力下换热热流密度之比与重力比之间满足幂指数的关系;依据该关系式可以求解微重力下液氢的膜态沸腾换热热流密度,预测误差控制在15%以内。      

Thermospheric Density: An Overview of Temporal and Spatial Variations

Neutral density shows complicated temporal and spatial variations driven by external forcing of the thermosphere/ionosphere system, internal dynamics, and thermosphere and ionosphere coupling. Temporal variations include abrupt changes with a time scale of minutes to hours, diurnal variation, multi-day variation, solar-rotational variation, annual/semiannual variation, solar-cycle variation, and long-term trends with a time scale of decades. Spatial variations include latitudinal and longitudinal variations, as well as variation with altitude. Atmospheric drag on satellites varies strongly as a function of thermospheric mass density. Errors in estimating density cause orbit prediction error, and impact satellite operations including accurate catalog maintenance, collision avoidance for manned and unmanned space flight, and re-entry prediction. In this paper, we summarize and discuss these density variations, their magnitudes, and their forcing mechanisms, using neutral density data sets and modeling results. The neutral density data sets include neutral density observed by the accelerometers onboard the Challenging Mini-satellite Payload (CHAMP), neutral density at satellite perigees, and global-mean neutral density derived from thousands of orbiting objects. Modeling results are from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE-GCM), and from the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model.     

Flares of August 1972: Analysis of dynamics

The optical observations and analyses of the flares of August 1972 are reviewed with emphasis on their dynamics. In particular, various assessments are made of possible quantitative interpretation of observed data. Specific topics considered are the storage and release of magnetic energy, triggering mechanisms, particle acceleration and magnetic field reconnection, and coronal and solar wind responses. Supplemental discussions on possible future direction of research are presented, illustrating the need for examination of the storage and release of flare energy in the lower solar atmosphere.On leave from the High Altitude Observatory.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Atmosphere-magnetosphere-ionosphere system mami

The effects on the terrestrial atmosphere and ionosphere of energy and momentum sources of magnetospheric origin are investigated theoretically. Parameters measured by instruments on board the GGS spacecraft and by the GGS ground-based networks are used as inputs to the models that quantify the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling. Images of the aurora acquired at ultraviolet, visible and X-ray wavelengths by instruments on board the POLAR spacecraft are particularly useful in this investigation by yielding good spatial coverage and high time resolution of the aurora.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

转子碰摩振动响应的非线性时间序列分析

针对碰摩转子系统的非线性特性 ,采用动力学非线性时间序列分析的方法对其振动响应进行了分析研究。基于动力学重构的基本理论 ,对碰摩转子响应进行了状态空间重构。在此基础上 ,进一步对碰摩转子系统振动响应进行了相关维数的估计 ,不同的相关维数值表明了系统是处于周期或拟周期运动 ,还是处于含有拟周期的混沌运动 ,或者是明显的混沌运动。系统碰摩严重时的相关维数值会比碰摩较轻时的相关维数值大 ,进一步对实验数据的计算结果也证实了这一点。     

Hydrodynamic modeling of mass loss from cataclysmic variable secondaries

Results of detailed computer simulations of mass loss from a cataclysmic variable secondary are presented. The calculations involve solution of the nonlinear hydrodynamical equations of stellar structure under varying degrees of approximation in an attempt to determine stability of the mass loss process. For comparison with previous theoretical studies dynamical sequences were computed assuming spherically symmetric mass loss from the secondary. The assumption of spherical symmetry is very poor since nearly all of the transferred material is lost within a small region about the inner Lagrangian point. Dynamical sequences treating only the region near the Lagrangian point were constructed in a manner consistent with the assumption of Roche geometry. Finally the effects of mass flow nonorthogonal to the Roche equipotential surfaces were treated in a very simple way. The last generalization produces stable mass loss in a model which was unstable for the less realistic approximation schemes. The finding of stable mass transfer implies that instability of the secondary star is not the mechanism leading to cataclysmic variable outbursts. This conclusion is consistent with published observations of dwarf novae made just prior to outburst.A detailed account of this study will be published elsewhere.Now at National Center for Atmospheric Research, P. O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307     

非等间距相关系数平稳序列分析方法

工程实际中由于数据缺损或受测试条件所限,常常得到非等间距的时间序列。而传统的时序分析方法只适用于等间距采样的数据,目前工程上对这类问题通常采用插值等近似处理方法,这往往导致较大误差。本文提出非等间距相关系数平稳序列的概念,建立了非等间距相关系数平稳序列自回归模型,给出了非等间距相关系数AR(p)序列的精确极大似然估计和条件极大似然估计,能够高精度地确定非等间距序列的均值函数、方差函数和相关系数函数。      

Uncertainty analysis of turbulence model in capturing flows involving laminarization and retransition

Flows experiencing laminarization and retransition are universal and crucial in many engineering applications. The objective of this study is to conduct an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of turbulence model closure coefficients in capturing laminarization and retransition for a rapidly contracting channel flow. Specifically, two commonly used turbulence models are considered: the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) one-equation model and the Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST) two-equation model. Thereby, a series of steady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) predictions of aero-engine intake acceleration scenarios are carried out with the purposely designed turbulence model closure coefficients. As a result, both SA and SST models fail to capture the retransition phenomenon though they achieve pretty good performance in laminarization. Using the non-intrusive polynomial chaos method, solution uncertainties in velocity, pressure, and surface friction are quantified and analyzed, which reveals that the SST model possesses much great uncertainty in the non-laminar regime, especially for the logarithmic law prediction. Besides, a sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the critical contributors to the solution uncertainty, and then the correlations between the closure coefficients and the deviations of the outputs of interest are obtained via the linear regression method. The results indicate that the diffusion-related constants are the dominant uncertainty contributors for both SA and SST models. Furthermore, the remarkably strong correlation between the critical closure coefficients and the outputs might be a good guide to recalibrate and even optimize the commonly used turbulence models.     

Stable mid-latitude red arcs: Observations and theory

Summary The observational features of the arc are fairly well established. At present, the thermal conduction model appears to explain the red arc features most consistently, but it must be noted that a soft electron flux would give very similar results. Ion temperature measurements in the vicinity of an arc, which should be forthcoming in the very near future, can establish conclusively whether transverse electric fields play any important role in the formation of the arcs. Accepting the assumption that the arcs are the result of energy flowing down from the plasmasphere, the major remaining question is: where does the energy come from and how does it get into the plasmasphere? The various proposed mechanisms discussed in the previous chapter appear feasible, but much work needs to be done before this problem is completely resolved.On leave from the Department of Electrical Engineering, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

NEW CONSTITUTIVE RELATIONSHIP OF INCOMPRESSIBLE HYPERELASTICITY

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来流对吸气式激光推力器冲量耦合系数的影响

针对大气吸气模式激光推进的原理,采用二阶精度的Roe格式,在气体模型为完全气体时,分别对无来流以及来流马赫数为2.5和5的条件下,环聚焦激光推力器内外流场的演化过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,无来流、来流马赫数为2.5和5时的冲量耦合系数分别为2.42×10-4N.s/J,1.00×10-4N.s/J和1.13×10-4N.s/J,无来流时激光推力器的冲量耦合系数高于同工况下有来流的情况,但来流马赫数为5时由于激波不会传播到推力器前体而产生负推力,因此冲量耦合系数较马赫数为2.5时高。研究结果可为激光推力器的构形设计以及实验模拟高空环境下推力器的飞行情况提供一定的理论指导。     

多维相关系数平稳序列分析方法

相关系数平稳序列是从非平稳随机序列中分离出来的一类工程上常见且又便于研究的一类时间序列,其均值和方差都可随时间变化,因此,与传统平稳过程相比,它能更好地描述工程中的时间序列.在相关系数平稳过程的基础上,给出多维相关系数平稳过程的定义,建立了新的多维相关系数序列的理论和方法,给出了多维相关系数序列的极大似然估计.通过对时域的全程分析,能够充分利用样本信息对相关系数序列的均值函数,协方差矩阵函数和相关系数矩阵函数进行估计.在此基础上,对多维相关系数平稳序列进行高精度的频谱分析.     

Magnetohydrodynamics of sunspots

Current theories are reviewed concerning the pressure equilibrium and thermal balance of sunspots, their hydromagnetic stability, energy transport mechanisms, and propagation of waves.Invited review presented at the Joint Meeting of IAU Commissions 10, 12, and 44, The MHD of Sunspots in Montreal, 20 August 1979.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.