The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate

To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

Regional Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing: The Role of the Ocean

A coupled climate model is used to explore the regional response of the climate system to solar forcing, with emphasis on the role of the ocean. It is shown that both the transient and the equilibrium response of surface temperature to changes in total solar irradiation is smaller over ocean than over land because of the ocean’s large heat capacity and the feedback involving evaporation. Furthermore, the advection of temperature anomalies and changes in ocean currents have an impact on the timing and the geographical distribution of the response. Nevertheless, at regional scales, the response to the forcing is embedded within the large internal variability of the system making the detection and analysis of the forced response difficult. Furthermore, this forced response could imply both changes in the mean state of the system as well as in its variability.     

Solar Variability and the Search for Corresponding Climate Signals

Instrumental and paleodata from the last centuries are investigated to get circumstantial evidence for external influences on the Earth's climate machine. Such influences could be of extraterrestrial and/or anthropogenic origin. Anthropogenic influences are separated from solar on superdecadal time scales and on a hemispheric level using a non-linear regression model. The function to be explained is the northern hemispheric temperature. The model contains two forcing components explicitly: A parameterized anthropogenic component, which describes the aggregated effect of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other anthropogenic climate impacts. A solar component, which describes the solar variability history. The solution of the regression model allows, under certain assumptions, a functional separation of the variability components and provides an estimation of their relative contributions to global warming during the last 140 years.     

Resonance in a coupled solar-climate model

The 11–year solar activity cycle is magnetic in origin and is responsible for small changes in solar luminosity and the modulation of the solar wind. The terrestrial climate exhibits much internal variability supporting oscillations with many frequencies. The direct effect of changing solar irradiance in driving climatic change is believed to be small, and amplification mechanisms are needed to enhance the role of solar variability. In this paper we demonstrate that resonance may play a crucial role in the dynamics of the climate system, by using the output from a nonlinear solar dynamo model as a weak input to a simplified climate model. The climate is modelled as oscillating about two fixed points (corresponding to a warm and cold state) with the weak chaotically modulated solar forcing on average pushing the solution towards the warm state. When a typical frequency of the input is similar to that of the chaotic climate system then a dramatic increase in the role of the solar forcing is apparent and complicated intermittent behaviour is observed. The nonlinear effects are subtle however, and forcing that on average pushes the solution towards the warm state may lead to increased intervals of oscillation about either state. Owing to the intermittent nature of the timeseries, analysis of the relevant timeseries is shown to be non-trivial.     

Solar Variability and the Earth's Climate: Introduction and Overview

Numerous attempts have been made over the years to link various aspects of solar variability to changes in the Earth's climate. There has been growing interest in this possible connection in recent years, spurred largely by the need to understand the natural causes of climate change, against which the expected global warming due to man's activities will have to be detected. The time scale of concern here is that of decades to centuries, and excludes the longer millennial scale in which orbital variations play a dominant role. The field has long been plagued by the lack of an acceptable physical mechanism by which solar variability can affect climate, but the discovery of variability in the Sun's total irradiance (the solar ``constant' of meteorology) by spacecraft instruments has pointed to a direct mechanism. Other less direct mechanisms that have been suggested involve variations in the Sun's ultraviolet flux and in the plasma outflow of the solar wind. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the current state of the field, emphasizing the proposed mechanisms as an introduction to the more detailed papers that follow. The particular case of sea-surface temperature data will be used as an illustration.     

Solar Influences on Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

Ion Energization and Escape on Mars and Venus

Mars and Venus do not have a global magnetic field and as a result solar wind interacts directly with their ionospheres and upper atmospheres. Neutral atoms ionized by solar UV, charge exchange and electron impact, are extracted and scavenged by solar wind providing a significant loss of planetary volatiles. There are different channels and routes through which the ionized planetary matter escapes from the planets. Processes of ion energization driven by direct solar wind forcing and their escape are intimately related. Forces responsible for ion energization in different channels are different and, correspondingly, the effectiveness of escape is also different. Classification of the energization processes and escape channels on Mars and Venus and also their variability with solar wind parameters is the main topic of our review. We will distinguish between classical pickup and ??mass-loaded?? pickup processes, energization in boundary layer and plasma sheet, polar winds on unmagnetized planets with magnetized ionospheres and enhanced escape flows from localized auroral regions in the regions filled by strong crustal magnetic fields.     

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.     

The Middle Atmospheric Ozone Response to the 11-Year Solar Cycle

Because of its chemical and radiative properties, atmospheric ozone constitutes a key element of the Earth’s climate system. Absorption of sunlight by ozone in the ultraviolet wavelength range is responsible for stratospheric heating, and determines the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere. Changes in middle atmospheric ozone concentrations result in an altered radiative input to the troposphere and to the Earth’s surface, with implications on the energy balance and the chemical composition of the lower atmosphere. Although a wide range of ground- and satellite-based measurements of its integrated content and of its vertical distribution have been performed since several decades, a number of uncertainties still remain as to the response of middle atmospheric ozone to changes in solar irradiance over decadal time scales. This paper presents an overview of achieved findings, including a discussion of commonly applied data analysis methods and of their implication for the obtained results. We suggest that because it does not imply least-squares fitting of prescribed periodic or proxy data functions into the considered times series, time-domain analysis provides a more reliable method than multiple regression analysis for extracting decadal-scale signals from observational ozone datasets. Applied to decadal ground-based observations, time-domain analysis indicates an average middle atmospheric ozone increase of the order of 2% from solar minimum to solar maximum, which is in reasonable agreement with model results.     

Small scale structures in the solar corona

The observational characteristics of the small scale magnetic structures are summarized. The temperature structure and temporal variability of the emission from coronal bright points, that pervade the source region of the solar wind in coronal holes and the quiet sun, and from active regions are shown to be remarkably similar. Particular emphasis is given to observations, potentially feasible with SOHO, that could resolve some of the outstanding issues regarding the role of the small scale magnetic structures in the energy balance and properties of the solar wind.     

Reconstruction of Past Solar Irradiance

Accurate measurements of solar irradiance started in 1978, but a much longer time series is needed in order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate. In order to reconstruct the irradiance prior to 1978 we require both an understanding of the underlying causes of solar irradiance variability as well as data describing the state of the Sun (in particular its magnetic field) at the relevant epochs.Evidence is accumulating that on the time-scale of the solar cycle or less, variations in solar irradiance are produced mainly by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface. The main solar features contributing to a darkening of the Sun are sunspots, while active-region faculae and the network lead to a brightening. There is also increasing evidence for secular changes of the solar magnetic field and the associated of solar brightness variability. In part the behavior of sun-like stars is used as a guide of such secular changes.Under the assumption that solar irradiance variations are due to solar surface magnetism on all relevant time scales it is possible to reconstruct the irradiance with some reliability from today to around 1874, and with lower accuracy back to the Maunder minimum. One major problem is the decreasing amount and accuracy of the relevant data with age. In this review the various reconstructions of past solar irradiance are presented and the assumptions underlying them are scrutinized.     

The Effect of Solar UV Irradiance Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere

The response of the lower and middle atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance typical of those observed to take place over the 11-year activity cycle has been investigated. The effects on radiative heating rates of changing total solar irradiance, solar spectral irradiance and two different assumptions concerning stratospheric ozone have been studied with a radiative transfer code. The response in the stratosphere depends on the changes specified in the ozone distribution which is not well known. A general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere up to 0.1 mbar (about 65 km) has been used to study the impacts of these changes on the thermodynamical structure. The results in the troposphere are very similar to those reported by Haigh99 using a quite different GCM. In the middle atmosphere the model is able to reproduce quite well the observed seasonal evolution of temperature and wind anomalies. Calculations of radiative forcing due to solar variation are presented. These show that the thermal infrared component of the forcing, due to warming of the stratosphere, is important but suggest a near balance between the longwave and shortwave effects of the increased ozone so that ozone change may not be important for net radiative forcing. However, the structure of the ozone change does affect the detailed temperature response and the spectral composition of the radiation entering the troposphere.     

Sources of Solar Wind at Solar Minimum: Constraints from Composition Data

In this discussion of observational constraints on the source regions and acceleration processes of solar wind, we will focus on the ionic composition of the solar wind and the distribution of charge states of heavy elements such as oxygen and iron. We first focus on the now well-known bi-modal nature of solar wind, which dominates the heliosphere at solar minimum: Compositionally cool solar wind from polar coronal holes over-expands, filling a much larger solid angle than the coronal holes on the Sun. We use a series of remote and in-situ characteristics to derive a global geometric expansion factor of?～5. Slower, streamer-associated wind is located near the heliospheric current sheet with a width of 10–20°, but in a well-defined band with a geometrically small transition width. We then compute charge states under the assumption of thermal electron distributions and temperature, velocity, and density profiles predicted by a recent solar wind model, and conclude that the solar wind originates from a hot source at around 1 million?K, characteristic of the closed corona.     

Pioneer and Voyager observations of large-scale spatial and temporal variations in the solar wind

The Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and Voyager 2 spacecraft were launched in 1972, 1974, and 1977, respectively. While these three spacecraft are all at compartively low heliographic latitudes compared with Ulysses, their observation span almost two solar cycles, a range of heliocentric distances from 1 to 57 AU, and provide a unique insight into the long-term variability of the global structure of the solar wind. We examine the spatial and temporal variation of average solar wind parameters and fluxes. Our obsevations suggest that the global structure of the outer heliosphere during the declining phase of the solar cycle at heliographic latitudes up to 17.5°N was charaterized by two competing phenomena: 1) a large-scale increase of solar wind density, temperature, mass flux, dynamic pressure, kinetic energy flux, and thermal enery flux with heliographic latitude, similar to the large-scale latitudinal gradient of velocity seen in IPS observations, 2) a small-scale decrease in velocity and temperature, and increase in density near the heliospheric current sheet, which is associated with a band of low speed, low temperature, and high density solar wind similar to that observed in the inner heliosphere.     

Short Term,Direct Indices of Solar Variability

Indices of solar activity relevant for understanding and modelling solar irradiance variability are identified, and their temporal characteristics compared. Reproducing observed solar irradiance variability requires a minimum of two different types of indices — an index for irradiance depletion by sunspots and an index for global irradiance enhancement by faculae and network. When combined with appropriate wavelength-dependent parameterizations of sunspot and facular contrasts and center-to-limb functions, these indices permit the construction of empirical models of daily, monthly and annual solar total and spectral irradiances. The models are compared with observations at selected wavelengths and for the total irradiance. While the models replicate much of the rotational and 11-year cycle variance in contemporary irradiance databases, differences exist because of either the presence of variability mechanisms additional to solar magnetism, or of unresolved instrumental effects in the databases. The reconstruction of solar irradiance in the past requires speculation about the extent of intercycle fluctuations in the global facular index, or in other, as yet unspecified, variability mechanisms.     

Cosmic Rays,Clouds, and Climate

A correlation between a global average of low cloud cover and the flux of cosmic rays incident in the atmosphere has been observed during the last solar cycle. The ionising potential of Earth bound cosmic rays are modulated by the state of the heliosphere, while clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget through trapping outgoing radiation and reflecting incoming radiation. If a physical link between these two features can be established, it would provide a mechanism linking solar activity and Earth's climate. Recent satellite observations have further revealed a correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud top temperature. The temperature of a cloud depends on the radiation properties determined by its droplet distribution. Low clouds are warm (>273K) and therefore consist of liquid water droplets. At typical atmospheric supersaturations (1%) a liquid cloud drop will only form in the presence of an aerosol, which acts as a condensation site. The droplet distribution of a cloud will then depend on the number of aerosols activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the level of super saturation. Based on observational evidence it is argued that a mechanism to explain the cosmic ray-cloud link might be found through the role of atmospheric ionisation in aerosol production and/or growth. Observations of local aerosol increases in low cloud due to ship exhaust indicate that a small perturbation in atmospheric aerosol can have a major impact on low cloud radiative properties. Thus, a moderate influence on atmospheric aerosol distributions from cosmic ray ionisation would have a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget. Historical evidence over the past 1000 years indicates that changes in climate have occurred in accord with variability in cosmic ray intensities. Such changes are in agreement with the sign of cloud radiative forcing associated with cosmic ray variability as estimated from satellite observations.     

Substorms and Their Solar Wind Causes

Consequences of the solar wind input observed as large scale magnetotail dynamics during substorms are reviewed, highlighting results from statistical studies as well as global magnetosphere/ionosphere observations. Among the different solar wind input parameters, the most essential one to initiate reconnection relatively close to the Earth is a southward IMF or a solar wind dawn-to-dusk electric field. Larger substorms are associated with such reconnection events closer to the Earth and the magnetotail can accumulate larger amounts of energy before its onset. Yet, how and to what extent the magnetotail configuration before substorm onset differs for different solar wind driver is still to be understood. A strong solar wind dawn-to-dusk electric field is, however, only a necessary condition for a strong substorm, but not a sufficient one. That is, there are intervals when the solar wind input is processed in the magnetotail without the usual substorm cycle, suggesting different modes of flux transport. Furthermore, recent global observations suggest that the magnetotail response during the substorm expansion phase can be also controlled by plasma sheet density, which is coupled to the solar wind on larger time-scales than the substorm cycle. To explain the substorm dynamics it is therefore important to understand the different modes of energy, momentum, and mass transport within the magnetosphere as a consequence of different types of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction with different time-scales that control the overall magnetotail configuration, in addition to the internal current sheet instabilities leading to large scale tail current sheet dissipation.