Sunspot numbers during 1736–1739 revisited

Some periods in the sunspot number reconstruction composed by Hoyt and Schatten [Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H. Group Sunspot Numbers: a new solar activity reconstruction. Sol. Phys. 179, 189–219, 1998. Reprinted with figures in Sol. Phys. 181, 491–512, 1998], are based on very few records. For example, there are only a few solar observations during the years 1736–1739. In this paper we intend to improve the reliability of the sunspot numbers reconstruction developed by Hoyt and Schatten for this 4-years period based on information about solar activity published in three journals of that epoch: “Philosophical Transactions”, “Histoire de l’Académie Royale des Sciences”, and “Nova Acta Eruditorum”. We were able to identify 42 papers with solar observations, including 30 with relevant information on sunspots. Based upon this new outlook, a reconstruction of the monthly solar activity for these years is proposed.     

A note on the relationship between sunspot numbers and active days

We have studied the relationship between three different versions of the sunspot number (Group, International and American Sunspot Number) and the number of active days (i.e., the number of days with spots on the solar disk). We have detected an approximately linear relationship for low solar activity conditions. However, this relationship for the International Sunspot Number is very different to the ones obtained with the other versions of the sunspot number. The discordant values correspond to older observations.     

磁暴数统计特性研究

Dst是一个表征磁暴强度的空间天气指数. 通过统计1957-2008年 发生的中等磁暴(-100<Dst≤ -50nT)和强磁暴(Dst ≤ -100nT)在太阳活动周上升年、极大年、下降年和极小年的时间分布情 况, 分析其随季节变化的统计特性, 进而讨论了引起磁暴的原因. 结果表明, 对于同一太阳活动周, 极大年地磁暴发生次数远大于极小年地磁暴的发生次数, 这与太阳黑子数的变化趋势是一致的; 通常太阳活动周强磁暴出现双峰结构, 而第23周中等磁暴出现双峰结构, 强磁暴则出现三峰结构, 这可能与1999 年强 磁暴发生次数异常少, 使1998年凸显出来的现象有关; 磁暴主要发生在分季, 随着Dst指数的增加, 磁暴发生次数明显增加.     

Birthdates of patients affected by mental illness and solar activity: A study from Italy

Purpose

This epidemiologic study tested an hypothesized association between the year of birth of persons with major mental illnesses and solar activity over the past century.

Methods

We collected data on diagnoses and birthdates of psychiatric patients born between 1926 and 1975 (N = 1954) in south Italy for comparison to yearly solar activity as registered by the International Observatories.

Results

We found a strong inverse correlation between high solar activity (HSA) and incidence of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in a 20-year period whereas the incidence of non-affective/non-psychotic disorders was moderately associated with HSA in the same period.

Conclusions

Interpretation of the observed correlations between HSA during years of birth and the incidence of mental illnesses remains unclear, but the findings encourage further study.     

Geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds,magnetic cloud-like structures and interplanetary shocks for the period 1995–2003

Using nine years (1995–2003) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data, solar sunspot number, and geomagnetic activity data, we investigated the geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds (MCs), magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs), and interplanetary shock waves. Eighty-two MCs and one hundred and twenty-two MCLs were identified by using solar wind and magnetic field data from the WIND mission, and two hundred and sixty-one interplanetary shocks were identified over the period of 1995–2003 in the vicinity of Earth. It is found that MCs are typically more geoeffective than MCLs or interplanetary shocks. The occurrence frequency of MCs is not well correlated with sunspot number. By contrast, both occurrence frequency of MCLs and sudden storm commencements (SSCs) are well correlated with sunspot number.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23

We present a study of the galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23. We use the monthly and the annual mean hourly, pressure corrected, data from neutron monitors of the global network (monthly rate is calculated as the average of the hourly pressure corrected values). We draw attention to an asymmetry in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery during odd and even cycles for the monthly mean hourly rate data. For over half a century of observations, we find that the recovery for the odd cycles is to a higher level than for the even cycles. Qualitatively the effect is ascribed to charged particle drifts in inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field. Even so it has not been possible to arrive at a quantitative, self-consistent, explanation in terms of drifts at higher and lower GCR rigidities. We also study the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of 11-year modulation over a wide range (1–200 GV) of GCR spectrum; it is a power law in rigidity with an exponent −1.22. We discuss the implication of these findings on quasi-linear diffusion theories of modulation. We reflect on GCR recovery pattern for 2006–2009.     

Solar terrestrial effects of two distinct types

The occurrence frequencies or fluxes of most of the solar phenomena show a 11-year cycle like that of sunspots. However, the average characteristics of these phenomena may not show a 11-year cycle. Among the terrestrial parameters, some related directly to the occurrence frequencies of solar phenomena (for example, ionospheric number densities related to solar EUV fluxes which show 11-year cycle like sunspots) show 11-year cycles, including the double-peak structures near sunspot maxima. Other terrestrial parameters related to average characteristics may not show 11-year sunspot cycles. For example, long-term geomagnetic activity (Ap or Dst indices) is related to the average interplanetary solar wind speed V and the total magnetic field B. The average values of V depend not on the occurrence frequency of ICMEs and/or CIRs as such, but on the relative proportion of slow and high-speed events in them. Hence, V values (and Ap values) in any year could be low, normal or high irrespective of the phase of the 11-year cycle, except that during sunspot minimum, V (and Ap) values are also low. However, 2–3 years after the solar minimum (well before sunspot maximum), V values increase, oscillate near a high level for several years, and may even increase further during the declining phase of sunspot activity, due to increased influence of high-speed CIRs (corotating interplanetary regions). Thus, Ap would have no fixed relationship with sunspot activity. If some terrestrial parameter shows a 11-year cycle, chances are that the solar connection is through the occurrence frequencies (and not average characteristics) of some solar parameter.     

Solar activity dependence of total electron content derived from GPS observations over Mbarara

Vertical total electron content (VTEC) observed at Mbarara (geographic co-ordinates: 0.60°S, 30.74°E; geomagnetic coordinates: 10.22°S, 102.36°E), Uganda, for the period 2001–2009 have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations. The daily values of the 10.7 cm radio flux (F_10.7) and sunspot number (R) were used to represent Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Variability (EUV). VTEC is generally higher during high solar activity period for all the seasons and increases from 0600 h LT and reaches its maximum value within 1400 h–1500 h LT. All analysed linear and quadratic fits demonstrate positive VTEC-F_10.7 and positive VTEC-R correlation, with all fits at 0000 h and 1400 h LT being significant with a confidence level of 95% when both linear and quadratic models are used. All the fits at 0600 h LT are insignificant with a confidence level of 95%. Generally, over Mbarara, quadratic fit shows that VTEC saturates during all seasons for F_10.7 more than 200 units and R more than 150 units. The result of this study can be used to improve the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) prediction of TEC around the equatorial region of the African sector.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

利用EMD方法提取太阳活动周期成分

EMD(经验模态分解)方法在处理非线性及非平稳时间序列时表现出了很大的优势和应用潜力.利用EMD方法研究太阳活动周期,对110年(1894-2003)和55年(1949-2003)的太阳黑子数月均值进行分解,分别得到一系列模式和一个趋势项,其中都可能包含有1.3至1.4年周期分量,25至30个月QBO(准双年振荡)分量,11年太阳周分量和22年Hale周分量.其中11年周期分量幅度最大,变化特征与太阳黑子数原始数据具有很高的相似性.不同于传统方法,EMD方法给出了太阳活动在不同时间尺度上各自分离的变化特征.     

“相似周”方法及对第23周太阳黑子数逐月值预测的讨论

简单介绍了太阳黑子预报中“相似周”的概念及其应用,利用对第20、21周的模拟预报验证了该方法的可靠性,对第23周开始后逐月黑子数的实测值与由该方法给出的预测值进行了比较,表明该方法有其特点和应用价值.     

流动对太阳黑子精细结构的影响

考虑磁扩散率为温度的函数以及绝热条件,线性扰动磁流力学方程组的色散方程是频率的三次方程。由于沿磁场流动的速度u₀小于声速u_s,即ε=u₀²/u_s²是一个小量,在零级近似下解色散方程,得到了磁扩散不稳定性。本文进一步讨论在一级近似下小流动对磁扩散不稳定性的影响。结果表明,小流动不破坏磁扩散不稳定性的存在,并且,它对波数空间中的不稳定区也影响不大。     

太阳黑子自动识别与特征参量自动提取

日面上黑子数目反映了太阳活动水平的高低.黑子形态的复杂性和磁场的非势性与太阳活动爆发密切相关.随着高时空精度的太阳观测数据量的急剧增长,快速准确地自动识别日面上的黑子以及对黑子群特征自动提取已成为太阳活动预报的现实需求.本文针对SDO/HMI的活动区白光数据,利用数学形态法开展黑子自动识别研究,并在黑子识别基础上对黑子群的面积和黑子数进行了计算.通过对利用2011-2017年HMI活动区数据计算得到的黑子群面积和黑子数与NOAA/SWPC发布的活动区相应参量进行比较,发现本文计算结果与SWPC发布数据的变化趋势基本一致,相关性较好.其中黑子群面积的相关系数为0.77,黑子数的相关系数为0.79.研究结果表明,利用本文方法对SDO/HMI数据进行处理,能够得到高时间分辨率的黑子群特征参量,可为太阳活动预报提供及时准确的输入.     

利用相似周方法预测第24活动周开始时间

利用相似周方法对第24活动周的开始时间与第23活动周下降相后期的太阳黑子数进行了预报.根据第23周已经出现的特征参量和下降相的形态特征,选取9,10,11,15,17和20等六个太阳活动周作为第23周下降相的相似周,对第24周开始时间进行预报.预报结果显示,第24活动周的开始时间为2007年5±1月,黑子数平滑月均极小值为7.1±2.6,第23太阳活动周长度为11.1年.与其他研究者的预报结果相比较,本文给出的结果与文献[11]和[12]及MSFC的结果比较一致.通过对相似周方法在下降相预测太阳活动周结束时间的研究讨论,及对第23周上升阶段的太阳黑子数和F10.7平滑月均值预报结果的评估,可以看出,相似周预报方法在太阳活动周长期预报中是很有应用价值的.     

Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24

Our forecast for the development phase of solar cycle 23 came out to be true; one of the very few to have attained this status out of several forecasts made. We review the details of the forecast and how it fared as the events unfolded in time. We note the present status of IMF intensity B and the planetary index Ap. We draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24; several forecasts have already been made, they cover all possible scenarios, ranging from a very active to the quietest cycle in a century. Our preliminary forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 maximum is 101 ± 5, indicating that cycle 24 will be about 20% less active than cycle 23; the possibility that next three solar cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out.     

第23周不同角宽CME的分布及与太阳黑子数位相的比较

统计分析了1996-2008年期间CME数量随角宽的分布, 将几个典型角宽的CME数量随时间变化的特征与太阳黑子数随时间变化特征进行比较. 分析结果表明, 角宽为0°～ 180°的CME占CME总数的95%以上, 全晕CME占2.83%, 角宽301°～ 359°的CME数量非常少. 角宽0° ～ 60°的CME有三个峰值, 与太阳黑子数随时间变化的特征不吻合. 角宽为121°～ 180°CME的数量无双峰分布. 全晕CME的分布具有明显的双峰结构, 第一个峰值出现在2001年, 第二个峰值出现在2005年, 与太阳黑子数的变化不同步.