Variations in cosmic ray cutoff rigidities during the great geomagnetic storm of November 2004

A very strong interplanetary and magnetospheric disturbance observed on 7–13 November 2004 can be regarded as one of the strongest events during the entire period of space observations. In this paper we report on the studies of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity variations during 7–13 November 2004 showing how storm conditions can affect the direct cosmic ray access to the inner magnetosphere. Effective cutoff rigidities have been calculated for selected points on the ground by tracing trajectories of cosmic ray particles through the magnetospheric magnetic field of the “storm-oriented” Tsyganenko 2003 model. Cutoff rigidity variations have also been determined by the spectrographic global survey method on the basis of experimental data of the neutron monitor network. Relations between the calculated and experimental cutoff rigidities and the geomagnetic Dst-index and interplanetary parameters have been investigated. Correlation coefficients between the cutoff rigidities obtained by the trajectory tracing method and the spectrographic global survey method have been found to be in the limits 0.76–0.89 for all stations except the low-latitude station Tokyo (0.35). The most pronounced correlation has been revealed between the cutoff rigidities that exhibited a very large variation of ∼1–1.5 GV during the magnetic storm and the Dst index.     

Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

Short-term periodicities in the downward longwave radiation and their associations with cosmic ray and solar interplanetary data

In this study downward longwave (LW) atmospheric radiation data for the period of 2014–2020 were used to search for short-term periodicities using fast Fourier transform (FFT). Several local peaks in the power spectrum density were found and established. The time series exhibits a series of significant peaks (exceeding the 95% confidence limit), such as at 273 days, 227 days, 200 days, 178 days, 157 days, 110 days, 120 days, 87 days, 73 days, 53–56 days, 35–30 days, 25–27 days, 21 days, 13 days, and 9–10 days.Moreover, cosmic ray data from KACST muon detector and the Oulu neutron monitor, as well as the data for the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm), Dst index, and solar wind speed for the same period as the LW data, were used to look for common cyclic variations and periodicities matching those found in the LW radiation. This was done to investigate the possible effect of the solar activity parameters on LW radiation. Several common periodicities were observed in the spectra of all the variables considered, such as 227 days, 154–157 days, 25–27 days, and 21 days. Some of the periodicities found in the LW radiation spectrum can be attributed to the modulation of the cosmic ray intensity by solar activity. Others are attributed to the disturbances in the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on the spectral results, we suggest that the solar signals may directly or indirectly affect the variations of the downward longwave radiation, which in turn may affect climate change.     

Temperature and pressure variability in mid-latitude low atmosphere and stratosphere-ionosphere coupling

This study presents the continuation of our previous analysis of variations of atmospheric and space weather parameters above Iberian Peninsula along two years near the 24th solar cycle maximum. In the previous paper (Morozova et al., 2017) we mainly discussed the first mode of principal component analysis of tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature and pressure fields, which was shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric ozone and anti-correlated with cosmic ray flux. Now we extend the investigation to the second mode, which suggests a coupling between the stratosphere and the ionosphere.This second mode, located in the low and middle stratosphere (and explaining ~7% of temperature and ~3% of geopotential height variations), showed to be statistically significantly correlated with variations of the middle stratosphere ozone content and anti-correlated with variations of ionospheric total electron content. Similar co-variability of these stratospheric and ionospheric parameters was also obtained with the wavelet cross-coherence analysis.To investigate the role of atmospheric circulation dynamics and the causal nature of the found correlations, we applied the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analysis to our series. Strong evidence for the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling were obtained for the winter 2012–2013 that is characterized by the easterly QBO phase (quasi-biennial oscillations of the direction of the stratospheric zonal winds) and a strong SSW (sudden stratospheric warming event). Further analysis (for the three-year time interval 2012–2015) hint that SSWs events play main role in emphasizing the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling.     

Evolution of Dst index,cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23

We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and climate change. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. Dst index is commonly used as the solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere interaction characteristic. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst variations in these solar cycles were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate and can be used for study of CR variations. Global temperature variations in connection with evolution of Dst index and CR variations is discussed.     

The brief history of experimental research of cosmic ray variations in Yakutia

Some unknown historical facts of cosmic ray studies in the north-east of the former Soviet Union related to the Yakutsk scientific group are reported for the benefit of the international scientific community. It focuses on the founders of Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. A chronology of measurements of cosmic ray intensity variations since 1949 in Yakutia (Sakha Republic; NE Siberia) is given. In particular, for the first time the data of the first solar cosmic ray event registered at Yakutsk (GLE04), with a small ionization chamber S-2 (volume: 20 L) are presented. Moreover, the data of the large ionization chamber ASK-1 (volume: 950 L) for the 1953–2003 period useful for specialists in the field of cosmic ray variations are also shown.     

Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected global climate change

On the basis of results obtained in our paper [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], we determine: the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection–diffusion; drift mechanisms of long-term variations of cosmic ray (CR) dependence on particle energy; level of solar activity (SA); and generally, the solar magnetic field. We obtain this important information on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection–diffusion and global drift modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and other regularly published predictions of expected SA variation in the near future, as well as predictions of the next SA cycle, we may make predictions of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years). In [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], properties of connections between long-term variation in CR intensity and some part of a global climate change were estimated, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this way we may make predictions of some part of a global climate change expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years and maybe more, depending upon the period during which definite predictions of SA can be made), controlled by solar activity through CR. In this case, estimations of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities, which also influence CR intensity, as well as CR-influenced effects on global climate variation, become important.     

Long-period meteor radar temperature variations over Collm (51°N, 13°E) and Kazan (56°N, 49°E)

We have estimated temperatures from meteor radar measurements using the gradient method and the full width at half maximum method over Kazan (56°N 49°E) and Collm (51°N, 13°E). The time series cover the period 2016–2019. The temperature gradient model is constructed from SABER temperature observations. We demonstrate that annual mean, amplitudes and phases of the annual and semiannual oscillations of the radar temperatures are close to those of the MLS and SABER temperatures. The annual mean temperatures over Kazan and Collm differ non-significantly. The seasonal variability of the radar temperature is mostly due to the annual cycle which tends to grow with latitude. The gradient method produces temperatures which agree with the SABER temperatures better than with the MLS ones. The harmonics of the annual oscillations from periods of 73 days up to periods of about 40 days are the most significant day-to-day temperature oscillations and have zonal wavenumber zero. Their periods and phases are in good correspondence with those of the MLS and SABER ones. We also show some results which demonstrate that at 56°N the FWHM method is not as robust as the gradient method.     

On the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity for different periods of solar magnetic cycle

The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data is larger in the qA > 0 period than in the qA < 0 period of solar magnetic cycle. The amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic rays anisotropy do not depend on the tilt angles of the heliospheric neutral sheet for different the qA > 0 and the qA < 0 periods of solar magnetic cycle. A good correlation has been revealed between the changes of the amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity versus the qA > 0 and the qA < 0 periods of solar magnetic cycle.     

Study of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy

We demonstrate that the general features of the radial and azimuthal components of the anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays can be studied by the harmonic analysis method using data from an individual neutron monitor with cut off rigidity <5 GV. In particular, we study the characteristics of the 27-day (solar rotation period) variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy, solar wind velocity, interplanetary magnetic field strength and sunspot number. The amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy are greater, and the phases more clearly established, in A > 0 polarity periods than in A < 0 polarity periods at times of minimum solar activity. The phases of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity and anisotropy are opposite with respect to the similar changes of the solar wind velocity in A > 0 polarity periods. No significant dependence of the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy on the tilt angle of the heliospheric neutral sheet is found. Daily epicyclegrams obtained by Chree’s method show that the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy during A > 0 polarity periods follow elliptical paths with the major axes oriented approximately along the interplanetary magnetic field. The paths are more irregular during A < 0 polarity periods.     

The onset of sunspot cycle 24 and galactic cosmic ray modulation

The annual mean sunspot number (SSN) has a minimum value in 2008, while the monthly mean SSN has a value of zero in August 2009. The galactic cosmic ray modulation for cycle 24 began at earth orbit in January 2010. We study the onset characteristics of the new modulation cycle using data from the global network of neutron monitors. They respond to time variations in different segments of the galactic cosmic ray rigidity spectrum. The corresponding temporal variations in the interplanetary magnetic field intensity (B) and solar wind velocity (V) as well as the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet are also studied. There is a lag of 3 months between a large, sharp increase of the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet and the onset of modulation. Some neutron monitors are undergoing long-term drifts of unknown origin.     

Long-term (50 years) measurements of cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere

Since the middle of 1957 till present time the group of researchers of P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences has carried out the regular balloon borne measurements of charged particle fluxes in the atmosphere. The measurements are performed at polar (northern and southern) and middle latitudes and cover the interval of heights from the ground level up to 30–35 km. Standard detectors of particles (gas-discharged counters) have been used. More than 80,000 measurements of cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere have been performed to the present time. In the data analysis the geomagnetic field and the Earth’s atmosphere are used as cosmic ray spectrometers.     

The role of drift and convection–diffusion mechanisms in small energy global cosmic ray modulation: Application to the hysteresis phenomenon of proton and alpha particle satellite data

The hysteresis effect for small energies of galactic cosmic rays is due to two effects. The first is the same as for neutron monitor energies – the delay of the interplanetary processes responsible for cosmic ray modulation with respect to the initiating solar processes, according to the effective velocity of solar wind and shock waves propagation. Then, the observed cosmic ray intensity is connected to the solar activity variations during many months before the time of cosmic ray measurement. The second is caused by the time delay of small energy cosmic ray diffusion from the boundary of modulation region to the Earth’s orbit. The model describing the connection between solar activity variation and cosmic ray convection–diffusion global modulation for neutron monitor energies is here developed by taking into account also the time-lag of the small energy particle diffusion in the Heliosphere. We use theoretical results on drifts and analytically approximate the dependences of drifts from tilt angle, and take into account the dependence from the sign of primary particles, and from the sign of polar magnetic field (A > 0 or A < 0). The obtained results are applied on proton and alpha-particle satellite data. We analyze satellite 5-min data of proton fluxes with energies >1 MeV, >2 MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >60 MeV, >100 MeV, and in intervals 10–30 MeV, 30–60 MeV, and 60–100 MeV during January 1986–December 1999. We exclude periods with great cosmic ray increases caused by particle acceleration in solar flare events. Then, we determine monthly averaged fluxes, as well as 5-month and 11-month smoothed data. We analyze also satellite 5-min data on alpha-particle fluxes in the energy intervals 60-160 MeV, 160–260 MeV and 330–500 MeV during January 1986–May 2000. We correct observation data for drifts and then compare with what is expected according to the convection–diffusion mechanism. We assume different dimensions of the modulation region (by the time propagation X₀ of solar wind from the Sun to the boundary of modulation region), for X₀ values from 1 to 60 average months, by one-month steps. For each value of X₀ we determine the correlation coefficient between variations of expected and observed cosmic ray intensities (the estimation of cosmic ray intensities values is given in Section 3 by Eq. (9), and the determination of correlation and regression coefficients in Section 3 by Eq. (8)). The dimension of modulation region is determined by the value of X_0 max, for which the correlation coefficient reaches the maximum value. Then the effective radial diffusion coefficient and residual modulation in small energy region can be estimated.     

Relationships between neutron fluxes and rain flows

Registration of secondary cosmic ray neutrons is a convenient tool for investigation of primary cosmic ray variations and meteorological effects as well. At present a large network of neutron monitors exists, providing the studies of cosmic ray variations related to the interplanetary conditions and geomagnetic activity. At the same time cosmic ray variations may be caused by some atmospheric processes. In this connection, using the data from standard and lead-free neutron monitors, and gamma and muon detectors, we studied relations between rain flows and neutron, gamma and ionization component behavior. To explain observable results the calculations of neutron and gamma absorption and albedo neutron spectra have been performed on the basis of universal software package FLUKA-2006. In this study we used hourly data on the neutron flux, corrected for barometric pressure and data from local meteorological stations. It was shown that secondary neutron radiation, recorded by lead-free NM, and gamma radiation as well are strongly effected by meteorological factors. The neutron component behavior depends on the moisture content in the soil, and above its surface.     

Empirical model of cosmic ray spectrum in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during 11-year solar cycle

The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are the main ionization source at altitude of ∼3–35 km in the atmosphere. For high latitude anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component has also a significant influence on the atmospheric ionization. We propose an empirical model for differential spectra D(E) of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during solar cycle. In the model data are used which cover three solar cycles: 20, 22 and 23. The LEAP87, IMAX92, CAPRICE94, AMS98 and BESS experimental spectra for protons and alpha particles are fitted to the proposed empirical model. The modulated GCR differential spectra are compared with force-field approximation to the one-dimensional transport equation and with solutions of two-dimensional cosmic ray transport equation. For experimental spectra, the calculation of the model parameters is performed by Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, applied to the special case of least squares. Algorithm that combines the rapid local convergence of Newton–Raphson method with globally convergent method for non-linear systems of equations is applied for theoretically obtained differential spectra. The described programmes are realized in algorithmic language C++. The proposed model gives practical possibility for investigation of experimental data from measurements of galactic cosmic rays and their anomalous component.     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

Robust extension of the simple sea-surface irradiance model to handle cloudy conditions for the global ocean using satellite remote sensing data

Sea-surface solar radiation (abbreviated as photosynthetically available radiation, PAR) in the visible wavelength (400–700 nm) is an essential parameter to estimate marine primary productivity and understanding phytoplankton dynamics, upper ocean physics and biogeochemical processes. Although many remote-sensing models were developed to estimate daily PAR (DPAR) from ocean colour data, these models often produce biases in the DPAR products under cloudy-sky and complex atmospheric conditions due to the lack of parameterization to deal with the cloud cover conditions and insufficient in-situ DPAR data. This study presents an Extended Sea-surface Solar Irradiance Model (ESSIM) for estimating DPAR over the global ocean. The ESSIM uses the direct and diffuse components from the Simple sea-surface Solar Irradiance Model (SSIM) along with a new parameter to handle cloudy conditions. The ESSIM produced DPAR products with greater accuracy under both clear and cloudy conditions. Its performance was tested on the time-series MODIS-Aqua images and compared with the concurrent in-situ data and the results from two global models. Results showed that the DPAR values produced by ESSIM agree with in-situ data better than the global models for all-sky conditions (with a mean relative error of 11.267 %; a root mean square error of 5.563 Em^?2day^?1; and a mean net bias of 2.917 Em^?2day^?1). The ESSIM performed slightly better than the SSIM for clear conditions and the Frouin's Operational Algorithm (FOA) for all-sky conditions. As the new parameterization accounts for cloudy conditions, the ESSIM produced more accurate results for cloud cover conditions across latitudes (up to 60°). The time-series Level-3 binned MODIS-Aqua data (global gridded) also demonstrated that the ESSIM improved the accuracy of DPAR products and produced spatially and temporally consistent DPAR products over the global ocean regardless of the seasons and sky conditions.     

The Kumtag meteorite strewn field

The Kumtag meteorite strewn field was found in the Kumtag desert, 132 km south of Hami city in the Xinjiang province, China. It is an ellipse of 2.5 × 7.9 km, with a long axis extending along the northeast-southwest direction. The largest individual meteorite of the strewn field weighs about 10 kg; the smallest individual has a mass of only 27 g. In total, more than 100 individuals with a total mass of more than 180 kg were collected. The location and the distribution of the fragments suggest that the Kumtag meteoroid entered the atmosphere in the direction Northeast-Southwest. All meteorites collected in this strewn field are samples from the same unique meteorite shower. The Kumtag meteorite is an H5 ordinary chondrite with a shock stage S2, and a weathering grade W2. The cosmic ray exposure age of Kumtag is 6.7 ± 0.8 Ma, which is rather typical for H chondrites and which indicates that Kumtag was derived from the massive impact event on its parent body ~7 Ma ago. A significant amount of He has been lost during certain unknown processe(s) before the Kumtag meteorite was ejected from its parent body.     

Rigidity spectrum of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity

We study the temporal evolution of the power rigidity spectrum of the first (27 days) and the second (14 days) harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity measured by neutron monitors in the period of 1965–2002. The rigidity spectrum of these variations can be approximated by a power law. We show the rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity have similar time profiles. These spectra are hard (γ ≈ 0.5 ± 0.1) and soft (γ ≈ 1.1 ± 0.2) during solar maximum and minimum activity, respectively. We ascribe this to the alternation of the sizes of the modulation regions responsible for the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity. Especially, the average radial sizes of the modulation regions of the 27-day variation and the heliolatitudinal extension of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry are smaller during solar minimum than during solar maximum. We show also, that the temporal changes of the power rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity are in a negative correlation with the changes of the rigidity spectrum of the corresponding 11-year variation.