Probabilistic assessment of radiation risk for astronauts in space missions

Accurate estimations of the health risks to astronauts due to space radiation exposure are necessary for future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include high-energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, ?. The risk of radiation exposure to astronauts as well as to hardware from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which could be up to 15% of crew time² on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of solar cycle phase using a non-homogeneous Poisson model [1] to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy>30 MeV, Φ₃₀. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses, for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and for a lunar rover during space missions of defined durations. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.     

Assessment of the radiation environment on the Moon

In connection with projects on a manned base on the Moon, the assessment of radiation risk to staff of the base owing to galactic (GCR) and solar (SEP) cosmic radiation becomes very relevant. The paper describes the methodology for assessing the radiation environment on the lunar surface and in the depths of lunar soil taking into account the primary and secondary radiation caused by protons and nuclei of GCR and SEP. Calculated fluencies of particles are used to estimate the average annual absorbed and equivalent local doses in tissue. Contribution to the dose of secondary neutrons at depths of lunar soil exceeds the contribution of protons. Contribution to the dose of secondary particles generated by GCR nuclei should be taken into account.     

Proposal for a new radiation dose control system for future manned space flights

Radiation risk on a future long-duration manned space mission appears to be one of the basic factors in planning and designing the mission. Since 1988 different active dosimetric investigations has been performed on board the MIR space station by the Bulgarian-Russian dosimeter-radiometer LIULIN and French tissue-equivalent proportional counters CIRCE and NAUSICAA. A joint French-Bulgarian-Russian dosimetry experiment and the dosimetry-radiometry system RADIUS-MD have been developed for the future MARS-96 mission. On the base of the results and experience of these investigations a conception for a new radiation dose control system for the future orbital stations, lunar bases and interplanetary space ships is proposed. The proposed system which consists of different instruments will allow personal radiation control for crew members, radiation monitoring inside and outside each habitat, analysis and forecasting of the situation and will suggest procedures to minimize the radiation risk.     

Space radiation analysis: Radiation effects and particle interaction outside the Earth's magnetosphere using GRAS and GEANT4

In order to explore the Moon and Mars it is necessary to investigate the hazards due to the space environment and especially ionizing radiation. According to previous papers, much information has been presented in radiation analysis inside the Earth's magnetosphere, but much of this work was not directly relevant to the interplanetary medium. This work intends to explore the effect of radiation on humans inside structures such as the ISS and provide a detailed analysis of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar proton events (SPEs) using SPENVIS (Space Environment Effects and Information System) and CREME96 data files for particle flux outside the Earth's magnetosphere. The simulation was conducted using GRAS, a European Space Agency (ESA) software based on GEANT4. Dose and equivalent dose have been calculated as well as secondary particle effects and GCR energy spectrum. The calculated total dose effects and equivalent dose indicate the risk and effects that space radiation could have on the crew, these values are calculated using two different types of structures, the ISS and the TransHab modules. Final results indicate the amounts of radiation expected to be absorbed by the astronauts during long duration interplanetary flights; this denotes importance of radiation shielding and the use of proper materials to reduce the effects.     

模拟载人探月中航天员空间辐射风险评估

空间辐射是长期载人航天飞行任务中影响航天员健康的重要风险因素。为了探求载人探月过程中对空间辐射的合理防护方式,文章借助空间辐射场模型对"嫦娥三号"飞行任务在不同质量厚度材料屏蔽下的舱内空间辐射环境进行了仿真计算,并确定了航天员各器官接受的空间辐射剂量、剂量当量以及有效剂量等辐射防护量以进行辐射风险评估。结果表明,随着屏蔽厚度的增加,航天员的各组织或器官的吸收剂量和剂量当量以及有效剂量均明显降低;采用质量屏蔽的方法对低于100 Me V的质子具有很好的防护效果,但对高能质子或重离子的防护效果不明显。计算和分析显示,载人探月过程中,只要采取适当的防护措施,航天员的空间辐射风险是可控的。     

太阳系边际探测飞行任务规划

针对太阳系边际探测任务,开展了星际多目标飞越的任务规划,采用小推力混合优化设计方法完成了基于借力飞行及电推进技术的行星际转移轨道联合优化设计,对比研究了面向日球层鼻尖和尾部探测的星际多目标探测飞行方案。研究表明,探测器在2024-2025年发射,可飞抵日球层鼻尖区域,在2027-2030年发射可飞抵日球层尾部区域,并可在2049年1月1日前飞离日心100 AU,实现太阳系边际空间的科学探测。其中日球层鼻尖探测任务探测器飞抵100 AU的位置位于鼻尖中心区域,可与旅行者1号、2号探测器形成有效互补。文章所用任务规划方法,可为太阳系边际探测的自主任务规划技术提供基础,相关研究成果能够为未来中国首次太阳系边际探测任务的实施提供有价值的参考。     

Estimation of radiation risk for astronauts on the Moon

The problem of estimating the risk of radiation for humans on the Moon is discussed, taking into account the probabilistic nature of occurrence of solar particle events. Calculations of the expected values of tissue-averaged equivalent dose rates, which are created by galactic and solar cosmic-ray particle fluxes on the lunar surface behind shielding, are made for different durations of lunar missions.     

Using radiation risk for assessment of space radiation hazard

Radiation hazard caused by exposure during a spaceflight is characterized by radiobiological consequences at all levels of organism. These consequences have a stochastic nature. Even deterministic effects are basically random quantity having all attributes of such mathematical values. The radiation risk is defined in this case as an additional probability of health damage or as a death probability in extreme case. For the manned spaceflight additional peculiarity of a human’s exposure is added. A natural space radiation environment has a stochastic character because solar particle events and crew of a spacecraft can be exposed to dose from background level up to lethal one.The report presents a procedure of radiation risk assessment for quantitative expression of radiation hazard level during a flight and using this value for developing protection recommendations. It is emphasized that the risk value is connected specifically with the time interval of possible hazard’s existent. The form of risk representation must be chosen depending on a time scale of radiobiological processes induced by the exposure (expressing in fact the radiation hazard model). Surviving function specified for the crewmember mortality rate changed by the professional exposure must be used for risk calculation. Solar particle events determine a stochastic character of radiation environment in space that must be taken into account for a risk assessment. The reliability of radiation risk assessment can be used for this goal.     

Radiation protective structures on the base of a case study for a manned Mars mission

Plans for interplanetary manned space missions imply significant risks arising from human's exposure to the hostile space environment. Thus the design of reliable protection systems against the ionizing cosmic radiation becomes one of the most relevant issues. In this paper the composition and magnitude of the atmospheric radiation on the planetary surface and for typical interplanetary transfer configurations have been analyzed. The investigation based on prior NASA and ESA mission results, using a manned mission to planet Mars as a case study. According to this, the time-dependent character of the consistency of cosmic radiation has been taken into account, which is justified by the interdependence of the radiation magnitude to the solar cycle. With regard to this paper it implies even solar particle events. The results have been compared to the protective character of different materials potentially usable as a habitat's structural shell and for interplanetary spacecrafts. The investigation aimed on particle energy degradation rates and reduction of secondary particle production. In this regard the physical process of absorbing effectiveness against particle radiation has been examined by analytical calculation and given scientific results, depending on thickness and molecular composition of the materials. The most suitable materials have been used for shield design proposals using different configurations, evaluating the use of aluminium, water tanks and polyethylene bricks.     

Dose estimates in a lunar shelter with regolith shielding

Beyond the Earth's atmosphere, galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a significant hazard to both manned and robotic missions. For long human missions on the lunar surface (months to a year) a radiation shelter is needed for dose mitigation and emergency protection in case of solar events. This paper investigates the interaction of source protons of solar events like those of February 1956 that emitted many fewer particles with energies up to 1000 MeV and of the October 1989 event of lower protons energy but higher fluence, with the lunar regolith and aluminum shielding of a lunar shelter. The shelter is 5 m in diameter and has a footprint of 5×8 m and a 10 cm thick aluminum support structure, however, actual thickness could be much smaller (～1–2 cm) depending on the weight of the regolith shielding piled on top. The regolith is shown to be slightly more effective than aluminum. Thus, the current results are still applicable for a thinner aluminum structure and increased equivalent (or same mass) thickness of the regolith. The shielding thicknesses to reduce the dose solely due to solar protons in the lunar shelter below those recommended by NASA to astronauts for 30 day-operation in space (250 mSv) and for radiation workers (50 mSv) are determined and compared. The relative attenuation of incident solar protons with regolith shielding and the dose estimates inside the shelter are calculated for center seeking, planar, and isotropic incidence of the source protons. With the center seeking incidence, the dose estimates are the highest, followed by those with isotropic incidence, and the lowest are those with the planar incidence.     

Time profile of cosmic radiation exposure during the EXPOSE-E mission: the R3DE instrument

The aim of this paper is to present the time profile of cosmic radiation exposure obtained by the Radiation Risk Radiometer-Dosimeter during the EXPOSE-E mission in the European Technology Exposure Facility on the International Space Station's Columbus module. Another aim is to make the obtained results available to other EXPOSE-E teams for use in their data analysis. Radiation Risk Radiometer-Dosimeter is a low-mass and small-dimension automatic device that measures solar radiation in four channels and cosmic ionizing radiation as well. The main results of the present study include the following: (1) three different radiation sources were detected and quantified-galactic cosmic rays (GCR), energetic protons from the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region of the inner radiation belt, and energetic electrons from the outer radiation belt (ORB); (2) the highest daily averaged absorbed dose rate of 426 μGy d(-1) came from SAA protons; (3) GCR delivered a much smaller daily absorbed dose rate of 91.1 μGy d(-1), and the ORB source delivered only 8.6 μGy d(-1). The analysis of the UV and temperature data is a subject of another article (Schuster et al., 2012 ).     

Configuration studies for active electrostatic space radiation shielding

Developing successful and optimal solutions to mitigating the hazards of severe space radiation in deep space long duration missions is critical for the success of deep-space explorations. Space crews traveling aboard interplanetary spacecraft will be exposed to a constant flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), as well as intense fluxes of charged particles during solar particle events (SPEs). A recent report (Tripathi et al., Adv. Space Res. 42 (2008) 1043–1049), had explored the feasibility of using electrostatic shielding in concert with the state-of-the-art materials shielding technologies. Here we continue to extend the electrostatic shielding strategy and quantitatively examine a different configuration based on multiple toroidal rings. Our results show that SPE radiation can almost be eliminated by these electrostatic configurations. Also, penetration probabilities for novel structures such as toroidal rings are shown to be substantially reduced as compared to the simpler all-sphere geometries. More interestingly, the dimensions and aspect ratio of the toroidal rings could be altered and optimized to achieve an even higher degree of radiation protection.     

Low cost planetary exploration: surrey lunar minisatellite and interplanetary platform missions

In order to meet the growing global requirement for affordable missions beyond Low Earth Orbit, two types of platform are under design at the Surrey Space Centre. The first platform is a derivative of Surrey's UoSAT-12 minisatellite, launched in April 1999 and operating successfully in-orbit. The minisatellite has been modified to accommodate a propulsion system capable of delivering up to 1700 m/s delta-V, enabling it to support a wide range of very low cost missions to LaGrange points, Near-Earth Objects, and the Moon. A mission to the Moon - dubbed “MoonShine” - is proposed as the first demonstration of the modified minisatellite beyond LEO. The second platform - Surrey's Interplanetary Platform - has been designed to support missions with delta-V requirements up to 3200 m/s, making it ideal for low cost missions to Mars and Venus, as well as Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and other interplanetary trajectories. Analysis has proved mission feasibility, identifying key challenges in both missions for developing cost-effective techniques for: spacecraft propulsion; navigation; autonomous operations; and a reliable safe mode strategy. To reduce mission risk, inherently failure resistant lunar and interplanetary trajectories are under study. In order to significantly reduce cost and increase reliability, both platforms can communicate with low-cost ground stations and exploit Surrey's experience in autonomous operations. The lunar minisatellite can provide up to 70 kg payload margin in lunar orbit for a total mission cost US$16–25 M. The interplanetary platform can deliver 20 kg of scientific payload to Mars or Venus orbit for a mission cost US$25–50 M. Together, the platforms will enable regular flight of payloads to the Moon and interplanetary space at unprecedented low cost. This paper outlines key systems engineering issues for the proposed Lunar Minisatellite and interplanetary Platform Missions, and describes the accommodation and performance offered to planetary payloads.     

MESSENGER's use of solar sailing for cost and risk reduction

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission used six planetary gravity assists in order to enable capture into orbit about Mercury. A key element of MESSENGER's successful trajectory was achieving the proper gravity assist from each planetary flyby. The criticality of the MESSENGER gravity assists levied tight accuracy requirements on the planetary-flyby targeting. Major errors could have precluded Mercury orbit insertion or required modifications to the trajectory that increased mission complexity, cost, and risk by requiring additional Mercury flybys and extending mission duration. Throughout the mission, MESSENGER modified its strategy for achieving accurate planetary flybys. By using solar sailing, the MESSENGER team was able to eliminate all of the flyby approach maneuvers without sacrificing flyby accuracy, thereby saving mission ΔV margin. The elimination of these approach maneuvers also markedly reduced mission risk, as these approach maneuvers were nominally planned during a time of heightened sensitivity to errors and precluded unique flyby science opportunities. The paradigm shift used by MESSENGER may be useful for other interplanetary missions, particularly if their trajectories require gravity assists in the inner solar system.     

An exploration of the effectiveness of artificial mini-magnetospheres as a potential solar storm shelter for long term human space missions

If mankind is to explore the solar system beyond the confines of our Earth and Moon the problem of radiation protection must be addressed. Galactic cosmic rays and highly variable energetic solar particles are an ever-present hazard in interplanetary space.     

Radiation: risk and protection in manned space flight.

Space radiation is the primary source of hazard for orbital and interplanetary space flight. Radiation levels for different space mission durations, have been established in order to determine the level of hazard. The risk of exceeding the established levels should not be more than 1%. Radiation environment models have been developed to estimate these values. It is possible to build spacecraft shielding based on the calculation of doses and the risk of exceeding these. By reviewing various calculated estimates of the risk, the radiation hazard and the efficiency of protective measures can be established for specific flights.     

Interplanetary CubeSats system for space weather evaluations and technology demonstration

The paper deals with the mission analysis and conceptual design of an interplanetary 6U CubeSats system to be implemented in the L₁ Earth–Sun Lagrangian Point mission for solar observation and in-situ space weather measurements.     

On the problem of lunar radiation environment

In connection with projects of manned bases on the Moon it becomes topical to estimate radiation danger for their inhabitants. In this paper we describe a method of evaluation of the radiation environment on the lunar surface produced by galactic and solar cosmic rays. The roles of both primary and secondary radiations generated in the depth of the lunar soil under the action of high-energy protons and nuclei are taken into account. Calculated fluxes of particles are used in order to estimate annual averaged absorbed and equivalent local dose rates in tissues. It is established that in the lunar rock the contribution of secondary neutrons to the dose rate exceeds that of protons. The contribution of the secondary particles generated by nuclei of galactic cosmic rays to the dose rate is estimated.     

载人小行星探测的任务特点与实施途径探讨

介绍了载人小行星探测的发展现状,对目前美国基于"猎户座"飞船的载人小行星探测的概要方案进行了描述,包括探测器系统组成、运载火箭和飞行方案等内容。从速度增量、目标星引力等方面,分析了载人小行星探测的任务特点,并与载人火星探测、载人月球探测以及无人小行星探测的任务特点进行了比较。给出了载人小行星探测的实施途径建议,包括目标星选择、载人飞船系统设计等。讨论了其所涉及的推进、星际飞行安全保障、小行星表面行走等关键技术。研究结果可为我国开展载人深空探测提供参考。     

Strategies of developing advanced lunar power systems

Electric and thermal power have to be available at the base site on the lunar surface before the first lunar crew arrives. Unlimited solar energy is available during the lunar day, but this must be stored for use during the lunar night unless nuclear energy systems are available. State-of-the-art candidate systems are reviewed and the production of solar cells on the moon is discussed. Various options for developing a lunar power plant are proposed. These must be simulated and optimized in a real life-cycle systems scenario to provide operations and cost data essential for choosing a strategy.