National subsidies in the international commercial launch market

The agreement by the USA and Cocom to allow the export of US-built satellites for launch on Chinese launchers raised the national subsidy issue. The international commercial launch market is multinational and highly competitive; launch suppliers have accused each other of being unfairly subsdized. Currently the US government is engaged in various negotiations to establish a ‘level playing field’. A clear study of the subsidy issue is essential. This article examines some of the charges and the current situation associated with each country and suggests a possible approach for the USA to remain competitive in the international commercial launch market.     

Flight demonstration of new thruster and green propellant technology on the PRISMA satellite

The concept of a storable liquid monopropellant blend for space applications based on ammonium dinitramide (ADN) was invented in 1997, within a co-operation between the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI). The objective was to develop a propellant which has higher performance and is safer than hydrazine. The work has been performed under contract from the Swedish National Space Board and ESA. The progress of the development has been presented in several papers since 2000.ECAPS, a subsidiary of the Swedish Space Corporation was established in 2000 with the aim to develop and market the novel “high performance green propellant” (HPGP) technology for space applications. The new technology is based on several innovations and patents w.r.t. propellant formulation and thruster design, including a high temperature resistant catalyst and thrust chamber.The first flight demonstration of the HPGP propulsion system will be performed on PRISMA. PRISMA is an international technology demonstration program with Swedish Space Corporation as the Prime Contractor.This paper describes the performance, characteristics, design and verification of the HPGP propulsion system for PRISMA. Compatibility issues related to using a new propellant with COTS components is also discussed. The PRISMA mission includes two satellites in LEO orbit were the focus is on rendezvous and formation flying. One of the satellites will act as a “target” and the main spacecraft performs rendezvous and formation flying maneuvers, where the ECAPS HPGP propulsion system will provide delta-V capability.The PRISMA CDR was held in January 2007. Integration of the flight propulsion system is about to be finalized.The flight opportunity on PRISMA represents a unique opportunity to demonstrate the HPGP propulsion system in space, and thus take a significant step towards its use in future space applications. The launch of PRISMA scheduled to 2009.     

US export controls and Canadian autonomy to collaborate on international space missions

Canada is a space power with unique technical niches that support opportunities for collaboration on space technologies. When U.S.-origin space technologies are involved Canada's ability to collaborate internationally may be conditional on US law and policy. As a result, US export control law can be directly linked to the success or failure of Canadian collaboration. This article examines the strategic impact of U.S. export controls on Canadian autonomy to collaborate on international missions, including multi-use missions. Canadian space export control policy is also examined more broadly with the goal of providing specific policy recommendations that will enhance Canada's future as an international space actor.     

Kazakhstan's space policy in a changing national and global context

In the wake of its transition to a market economy and the political and social reforms that have accompanied this, Kazakhstan—home to the renowned Baikonur space complex—is experiencing greater demand for space services. This article reports on the drivers behind and main features of the country's current space program and analyzes Kazakahstan's space policy. Key priorities are capacity building, maximizing revenue from the lease of Baikonur, international cooperation, in particular with Russia, as a means of gaining know-how and entering the world space industry, developing Earth observations and broadcasting expertise, and placing the country's activities within a legal framework.     

Whose jurisdiction over the US commercial satellite industry? Factors affecting international security and competition

Within a global economy, export controls play a large role in hindering the proliferation of high technology. A company operating in a country that operates under more strict export controls than others is at a serious disadvantage in competing. This has been the case for commercial satellite (comsat) manufacturers in the USA since 1999, when Congress redefined comsats and all technologies associated with them from a dual-use export under the jurisdiction of the Department of Commerce to a munitions export that falls under the jurisdiction of the Department of State. Following this, there was a drastic drop in the market share of US comsat manufacturers in comparison to European manufacturers, who continued to define satellites as a dual-use technology. This paper examines the various factors that have affected US industry competitiveness and tackles the question of whether or not it continues to make sense to keep comsats under the more restrictive International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) controls. To accomplish this, comsats are subjected to a litmus test created by George Zaphiriou in 1992 to determine whether a technology should be placed under ITAR controls.     

An inconvenient regulatory truth: Divergence in US and EU satellite export control policies on China

Since the early 1990s the USA has maintained export control sanctions against Chinese international commercial satellite launch services. In 1998 these sanctions were further strengthened, resulting in a de facto international embargo that is premised on ITAR export licenses. Since 1998 this de facto embargo has effectively prohibited China from launching Western commercial satellites of a sophisticated technological standard. Today, European commercial satellite manufacturers are positioned to fully benefit from ITAR-free technology investments, gaining access to Chinese launch services for the launch of commercial telecommunication satellites that are technologically comparable to US satellites. This article examines the policy implications for the USA in light of EU regulatory divergence and the impending return of China to the international commercial launch services market.     

Forecasting space markets

Space Policy is here reprinting edited extracts from two reports — one French, one American — which aim to forecast the market for space applications and launch services over the next 10 and 15 years respectively. Euroconsult 1986 edition of The World Space Industry Survey: Ten-Year Outlook gives a country-by-country analysis of policies and programmes; an evaluation of markets for space applications and a forecast of the market for launch systems. The Report on the 1986 Outside Users Payload Model, prepared by Battelle, Columbus Division, for the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, provides an estimate of demand for launch services for payloads in a range of mission categories flown by countries outside the Soviet bloc. Using different starting points and methodologies, the two reports nevertheless draw convincingly similar conclusions.     

Asia in space: The awakening of China and Japan

The increasingly important role of China and Japan in international space activities can be seen as a threat to the two great space-exporting powers, the USA and Europe. China is already a competitor on the satellite launch market, and will soon be able to market satellites which are simpler and cheaper than those offered by Western industry. Japan is making steady progress towards autonomy in all fields of space technology. This article details the space experience of China and Japan. They are following different paths but both will have a strong presence in the cosmos by the year 2000.     

A liquid propulsion panorama

Liquid-propellant rocket engines are widely used all over the world, thanks to their high performances, in particular high thrust-to-weight ratio. The present paper presents a general panorama of liquid propulsion as a contribution of the IAF Advanced Propulsion Prospective Group.After a brief history of its past development in the different parts of the world, the current status of liquid propulsion, the currently observed trends, the possible areas of future improvement and a summarized road map of future developments are presented. The road map includes a summary of the liquid propulsion status presented in the “Year in review 2007” of Aerospace America.Although liquid propulsion is often seen as a mature technology with few areas of potential improvement, the requirements of an active commercial market and a renewed interest for space exploration has led to the development of a family of new engines, with more design margins, simpler to use and to produce associated with a wide variety of thrust and life requirements.     

Russian space commercialization - getting the banks involved

While the world market for space goods and services has grown enormously and continues to do so, Russia's meagre share of it is out of all proportion to its technological and intellectual base. This was initially the fault of its rigid political system, which has made it hard for companies to adapt to a market economy. This viewpoint argues that Russia's banks, which have played a major role in the country's economic reforms, should be encouraged to invest in its space industry. In particular they could finance the ‘space education’ of the business community and fund surveys and feasibility studies. In the long term this could generate large profits and would improve their standing in the world. Ultimately they might join specialist international bank associations set up to finance cooperative ventures.     

European initiative & strategy for prioritising and harmonising space technology R&D

This document outlines the objectives, strategy guidelines, and the approach for the harmonisation of European space technology activities, in line with and in support of the resolution “Shaping of the Future of Europe in Space”, adopted at the ESA Ministerial Council in May 1999.Under an overall ESA co-ordination, the European space sector is elaborating a technology strategy based on top-level priorities (Dossier 0), on the mapping of European development and competences and on a co-ordinated Space Technology Master Plan (ESTMP). This plan shall take into account the various European developments, industry capacities and budgets and shall enhance the complementary role of the various partners towards common objectives.The proposed strategy includes selection of priority activities as pilot projects for harmonisation. For these pre-selected pilot projects, agreements are required on responsibilities, leaderships, partnerships and budget commitments.     

Innovations for competitiveness: European views on “better-faster-cheaper”

The paper elaborates on “ lessons learned” from two recent ESA workshops, one focussing on the role of Innovation in the competitiveness of the space sector and the second on technology and engineering aspects conducive to better, faster and cheaper space programmes. The paper focuses primarily on four major aspects, namely:

1. a) the adaptations of industrial and public organisations to the global market needs;

2. b) the understanding of the bottleneck factors limiting competitiveness;

3. c) the trends toward new system architectures and new engineering and production methods;

4. d) the understanding of the role of new technology in the future applications.

Under the pressure of market forces and the influence of many global and regional players, applications of space systems and technology are becoming more and more competitive. It is well recognised that without major effort for innovation in industrial practices, organisations, R&D, marketing and financial approaches the European space sector will stagnate and loose its competence as well as its competitiveness. It is also recognised that a programme run according to the “better, faster, cheaper” philosophy relies on much closer integration of system design, development and verification, and draws heavily on a robust and comprehensive programme of technology development, which must run in parallel and off-line with respect to flight programmes.

A company's innovation capabilities will determine its future competitive advantage (in time, cost, performance or value) and overall growth potential. Innovation must be a process that can be counted on to provide repetitive, sustainable, long-term performance improvements. As such, it needs not depend on great breakthroughs in technology and concepts (which are accidental and rare). Rather, it could be based on bold evolution through the establishment of know-how, application of best practices, process effectiveness and high standards, performance measurement, and attention to customers and professional marketing. Having a technological lead allows industry to gain a competitive advantage in performance, cost and opportunities. Instrumental to better competitiveness is an R&D effort based on the adaptation of high technology products, capable of capturing new users, increasing production, decreasing the cost and delivery time and integrating high level of intelligence, information and autonomy. New systems will have to take in to account from the start what types of technologies are being developed or are already available in other areas outside space, and design their system accordingly. The future challenge for “faster, better, cheaper” appears to concern primarily “cost-effective”, performant autonomous spacecraft, “cost-effective”, reliable launching means and intelligent data fusion technologies and robust software serving mass- market real time services, distributed via EHF bands and Internet.

In conclusion, it can be noticed that in the past few years new approaches have considerably enlarged the ways in which space missions can be implemented. They are supported by true innovations in mission concepts, system architecture, development and technologies, in particular for the development of initiatives based on multi-mission mini-satellites platforms for communication and Earth observation missions. There are also definite limits to cost cutting (such as lowering heads counts and increasing efficiency), and therefore the strategic perspective must be shifted from the present emphasis on cost-driven enhancement to revenue-driven improvements for growth. And since the product life-cycle is continuously shortening, competitiveness is linked very strongly with the capability to generate new technology products which enhance cost/benefit performance.     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

Small missions: exploiting the opportunities

This is an edited part of a report by the European consortium Eurospace on the potential for the continent of small missions. A growing feature of the space market for communications, Earth observations and science and technology development, they represent both a threat of missing an important future market and an opportunity to develop a new capability offering better value for money and increasing the effectiveness of European space endeavours. A new pump-priming programme, the European Small Space Missions Initiative (ESSMI), is put forward to avoid the present vicious circle in which small missions are not proposed because of the lack of launch opportunities and launch vehicles are not developed because of lack of demand.     

Communications satellite business ventures : Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies

Both commercial organizations and government agencies invest in spacecraft technology programmes aimed at increasing the performance of communications satellites. Government agencies also make policy decisions which may affect communications satellite business ventures. This article describes an economic evaluation and planning tool which has been developed to assess the impact of various policies on typical fixed satellite service business ventures. The methodology is based upon a stochastic financial simulation model (DOMSAT II) which allows for consideration of reliability and various market, performance and cost uncertainties. Results of the assessment of NASA on-orbit and space power technology programmes are presented, as are results of insurance v self insurance decisions and the choice of transportation system.     

The impact of US export controls on the Canadian space industry

The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) govern the export of defense-related technologies and services from the USA. In 1999 Canada's exemption to ITAR was suspended because of American objections over some Canadian companies retransferring US technology to third countries. This paper is a first attempt to quantify the impact of ITAR on the Canadian space industry. Thirty-two space-related companies were contacted and a total of nine responses were received, representative of around 60% of the Canadian space industry in terms of workforce and revenue. According to the results, the Canadian space industry has been relatively effective in meeting the challenges imposed by ITAR. However, these workarounds do not diminish its negative impacts, particularly with respect to cost and schedule. It is expected that ITAR will continue to affect the Canadian space industry, as no near-term relief from the current regulatory environment is on the horizon.     

The enigma of small satellites for earth observation

Small satellites have captured a continuously increasing share of the market in the fields of science, technology and recently also in the telecommunications and Earth observation areas. User requirements and market opportunities for space based satellite systems for Earth observation products have grown substantially in the past decade. Criteria for the utilization of different classes of satellite systems (small and large) and analogies to developments in other areas, e.g. the telecommunications field are discussed. The end to end character of service and product oriented systems as key criteria for market success in the scientific, applications and commercial areas is underlined. Recent developments in the global change, the Earth observation applications and commercial sectors are reviewed and compared. Opportunities for small satellites in the field are related to technology advancements, cost reduction options, and progress in the state of the art in system design.     

The ethical dimensions of space settlement

While proposals for settling in the space frontier have appeared in the technical literature for over 20 years, it is in the case of Mars that the ethical dimensions of space settlement have been most studied. Mars raises the questions of the rights and wrongs of the enterprise more forcefully because: (a) Mars may possess a primitive biota; and (b) it may be possible to terraform Mars and transform the entire planet into a living world. The moral questions implicit in space settlement are examined below from the standpoints of four theories of environmental ethics: anthropocentrism, zoocentrism, ecocentrism and preservationism. In the absence of extraterrestrial life, only preservationism concludes that space settlement would be immoral if it was seen to be to the benefit of terrestrial life. Even if Mars is not sterile, protection for Martian life can be argued for either on intrinsic or instrumental grounds from the standpoints of all of these theories. It is argued further that a strict preservationist ethic is untenable as it assumes that human consciousness, creativity, culture and technology stand outside nature, rather than having been a product of natural selection. If Homo sapiens is the first spacefaring species to have evolved on Earth, space settlement would not involve acting ‘outside nature', but legitimately ‘within our nature'.     

Space tourism - A promising future?

Based on presentations made at the first International Symposium on Space Tourism (ISST), held in Bremen on March 20–22 1997, an overview over the current state of discussion on space tourism is given. Starting with an evaluation of the current situation for spaceflight, the author's viewpoint on the rationale for space tourism is described. The potential of space tourism as a future large space market is demonstrated using the results of recent market research and projection. This is followed by discussion of the appropriate technical means for space tourism in terms of space transportation systems and orbital infra-structure. In addition, the necessary non-technical boundary conditions to initiate space tourism and the associated dangers and risks are described and assessed     

Space for defence: A European vision

A common European defence policy is still at a very preliminary stage, and although some limited progress has recently been made, it is a politically sensitive issue. In contrast to scientific research or large industrial ventures such as aircraft development, where Europe has moved forward rather well, obstacles to further integration in defence and security matters are numerous. Space systems could be used to facilitate such integration as their duplication is costly and so much remains to be done in Europe in this field. A common European ‘vision’ for the role of space systems in security and defence thus needs to be developed. This article reviews the role of space in security and defence missions, the technology and industrial base Europe needs, and its capability and autonomy in achieving access to space. Space system vulnerability and the means of minimizing it are addressed, including measures to prevent the weaponization of space. The possible role of ESA in support of the European Defence Agency for defence space systems development is identified, along with the need for ad hoc organizations for operational exploitation. Ten recommendations are made that would permit progress at the European level, following the path already successfully achieved in the civilian domain.