Solar cycle effects upon the relationship of Ne and Te in the F-region

Employing Atmsophere Explorer-C measurements made in 1974, just prior to solar minimum, Brace and Theis /1/ demonstrated that a remarkably consistent inverse relationship existed between the electron density N_e and temperature T_e in the F-region. In this paper we use later data from AE-C, taken when solar activity was rising (1975–1978), and Dynamics Explorer-2 data taken at solar maximum (1981), to examine how the temperature and density relationship changes with solar activity. We find that the solar maximum T_e is a factor of two larger than the solar minimum T_e for the same values of N_e. T_e does not necessarily increase with solar activity, however, because N_e increases enough to approximately cancel the effect of higher solar extreme ultraviolet heating. We find that the effect of solar activity can be accounted for by a simple function of the F_10.7 cm index that multiplies the solar minimum equation of Brace and Theis /1/.     

Meteorological effects observed in the D-region of the equatorial ionosphere

Electron density values were measured during morning hours over Thumba. The results show that electron density in mesosphere is more during summer than during winter for same solar zenith angle. The temperature measurements carried out on the same day during night hours show that mesosphere is hotter in winter and cooler in summer over Thumba. The electron density and temperature are anti-correlated. The results are explained in terms of temperature effects and other meteorological effects.     

第23太阳活动周太阳极紫外辐射与磁暴相关性分析

统计第23个太阳活动周内中等及以上强度（Dst_min<-50nT）的磁暴事件,线性拟合分析磁暴主相DDst_min和达到DDst_min前一个表征太阳极紫外辐射强度的F_10.7之间的相关性.结果表明:随着太阳极紫外辐射增强,DDst_min<-50nT的磁暴出现的总数增多,在弱、中等和强太阳极紫外辐射条件下,其数量分别为56,84和85;随着太阳极紫外辐射增强,强磁暴（-200nT ≤ Dst_min<-100nT）和大磁暴（Dst_min<-200nT）发生的数量和相对发生率呈增长趋势,尤其是大磁暴数目（1,4,12）和相对发生率（1.79%,4.76%,14.12%）明显呈增长趋势;大磁暴（|Dst_min|）与太阳极紫外辐射（F_10.7）之间存在中度正相关关系,其相关系数为0.532,并且主要体现在大磁暴（|Dst_min|）与强太阳极紫外辐射（F_10.7）之间的中度正相关性,其相关系数为0.582.大磁暴与强太阳极紫外辐射之间的相关性可为空间天气预报提供参考依据.      

太阳活动区EUV图像的生成式模型耀斑分级与预报

近年来,不断发射的空基观测台持续传送回海量日面图像及日地间气象数据,为采用人工智能技术对太阳活动进行预报预警提供了数据基础。但是,极端天气爆发少,样本量较少;中等程度爆发稍多,样本量较多;常规无爆发天气常见,样本较为集中,样本不均衡状况严重影响机器学习方法在空间天气领域的广泛应用。本文面向多源多通道多尺度日面图像信息,构建了来自SOHO和SDO的1996-2015年日面活动区图像数据集;针对数据分布的不平衡,对太阳活动区图像作耀斑分级与预报。在对比分析元学习算法的基础上,设计了结合分类头设计和卷积核初始化的生成式模型;在使网络轻量化的基础上,能够将M和X级耀斑预报的检测率指标相较于普通的深度学习模型和无监督度量式模型分别提升10%和7%。     

午夜太阳入侵对FY-4辐射计次镜组件的温度影响

对"风云四号"(FY-4)地球静止气象卫星辐射计建立三维热分析计算模型,采用有限元分析软件I-DEAS/TMG对辐射计进行在轨温度计算,分析午夜太阳入侵(midnight solar intrusion)对辐射计次镜组件的温度影响。计算结果表明,在太阳倾角为0°和±23.45°时,午夜太阳入侵对次镜的温度影响最为强烈,次镜温度在该时段能够达到最高温度。在太阳倾角为±8.8°,午夜太阳入侵现象对次镜座和次镜支撑的温度影响较为强烈。     

The dependence of solar energetic particle fluxes in the Earth-Mars-Earth route on solar activity period.

This report presents the results of analyzing the relative importance of particle fluxes of different origin in the Earth-Mars-Earth route during different solar activity periods. The analysis has been made in terms of the galactic cosmic ray and solar energetic particle flux models developed at Moscow State University. The results demonstrate the extreme importance of the high-energy solar particle fluxes in interplanetary space even during the years of "quiet" Sun.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

大气电场综合观测设备的设计

大气电场反映了地球近地表大气对气象活动、太阳活动与地质活动的综合响应。实现大气电场与气象参数及地磁活动指数等参数的综合测量,对雷电活动、地质灾害和磁暴活动等的研究具有重要意义。 设计开发了一种大气电场综合观测设备,能够同时测量包含温度、相对湿度、风速和大气电场等多个参数,在大气电场探测原理的基础上给出了大气电场综合观测设备的详细设计和电场标定过程。 通过对该设备在北京市十三陵台站实测数据的分析,与中国科学院国家空间科学中心FAMEMS-DF02电场仪以及中国气象网发布的气象数据进行对比,结果表明各气象参数99%的时刻对应误差不超过±10%,平均误差不超过±3%,而电场数据的平均误差为±0.166 kV·m–1。      

对流层特大暴雨天气对电离层变化的影响

研究气象活动对电离层变化的影响．利用时序叠加方法，通过对1958-1998年期间发生在武汉的5次特大暴雨天气事件对武汉上空电离层变化的影响进行分析，发现：(1)特大暴雨能够引起低电离层，fbEs和，f0Es参量较明显地减小；(2)特大暴雨对电离层F区寻常波描迹的最低虚高h′F和电离层等效峰高hpF的参量也有一定影响，且随着雨量的增大这种影响作用也会增加；(3)特大暴雨对电离层其他参量影响甚弱或没有影响．本文认为，特大暴雨天气事件对电离层的影响主要来自于动力过程，特别是特大暴雨激发的或相伴的大气重力波、潮汐波和行星波等长周期大尺度过程的作用．     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

Investigation of the planar midlatitude ionospheric trend under different levels of solar activity

A better understanding of the ionosphere through accurate mathematical models is no doubt a crucial element. This study focuses on the challenging problem of building a model representing the complex structure of the midlatitude ionosphere. Previous studies have shown that a regional planar model is suitable in representing the total electron content (TEC) trend in the midlatitude ionosphere in both hemispheres. In this study, the planar trend model for 12 non-overlapping northern hemisphere regions in three groups of geographically near 4 regions is further investigated under different levels of solar activity; low, moderate and high. To that end, the coefficients of the model are estimated in the least squares sense using total electron content values from global ionospheric maps (GIMs) for the years 2009, 2012 and 2014. Subsequently, these coefficients are used to reconstruct estimated TEC maps which are then compared with actual GIM-TEC by investigating their difference in normalized $L_2$ norm squared sense. The regional planar trend model provides a particularly successful representation in the years 2012 and 2014 for which the solar activity level is the dominant factor determining the TEC trend. Under low solar activity conditions of 2009, other factors such as ocean currents, temperature variations and meteorological phenomena are suspected to have a considerable effect in some regions depending on their geographic location and on seasonal trends in those regions. As an example, studies show that under the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Siberian High (SH), a significant cooling trend between 2004 and 2018 in autumn is observed in Eurasia, which, in conjunction with the low solar activity levels, may be related to the deviations from the actual GIM-TEC in 2009 in these regions. As solar radiation increases, however, such bottom-side forcings are masked in 2012 and 2014 and these deviations are no longer observed.     

Response of the mesopause temperatures to solar activity over Yakutia in 1999–2013

OH(6-2) rotational temperature trends and solar cycle effects are studied. Observations were carried out at the Maimaga station (63.04°N, 129.51°E) for the period August 1999 to March 2013. Measurements were conducted with an infrared spectrograph. Temperatures were determined from intensity ratios in the P branch of the OH band. The monthly average residuals of temperature after the subtraction of the mean seasonal variation were used for a search for the solar component of temperature response. The dependence of temperatures on solar activity has been investigated using the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux as a proxy. A linear regression fitting on residual temperatures yields a solar cycle coefficient of 4.24 ± 1.39 K/100 solar flux units (SFU). The cross-correlation analyses showed that changes of the residual temperature follow changes of solar activity with a quasi-two year delay (25 months). The temperature response at the delay of 25 months reaches 7 K/100 SFU. The possible reason of the observed delay can be an influence of quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the atmosphere on the relation of temperature and solar activity. The value of the temperature trend after the subtraction of seasonal and solar components is not statistically significant.     

Solar Activity and the Climate of Prebaikalia

This paper presents convincing evidence for the reality of manifestations of solar variability in climate characteristics of the Prebaikalia. A numerical estimate is obtained of this influence on ground air temperature. It is shown that the main meaningful variations in air temperature in the region for the period1881-1960 were caused by solar activity. Since the 1960s till the present, with the influence of solar variability continuing, a clear-cut influence of another factor has been observed, the role of which has been steadily increasing, and in the hst decade it has now exceeded the contribution of solar variability. Research results on the variations in hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal and the Angara river and their connection with solar activity are presented. It is shown that these characteristics are closely correlated with the duration of solar cycles.      

Mapping seasonal trends of electron temperature in the topside ionosphere based on DEMETER data

The diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of the electron temperature in the Earth‘s topside ionosphere during relatively low solar activity period of 2005 – 2008 are investigated. In order to examine seasonal variations and morphology of the topside ionospheric plasma temperature, CNES micro-satellite DEMETER ISL data are used. Presented study is oriented on the dataset gathered in 2005 and 2008. Within conducted analysis, global maps of electron temperature for months of equinoxes and solstices have been developed. Furthermore, simultaneous studies on two-dimensional time series based on DEMETER measurements and predictions obtained with the IRI-2012 model supply examination of the topside ionosphere during recent deep solar minimum. Comparison with the IRI-2012 model reveals discrepancies between data and prediction, that are especially prominent during the periods of very low solar activity.     

The heliospheric modulation of 3–10 MeV electrons: Modeling of changes in the solar wind speed in relation to perpendicular polar diffusion

The discrepancy between cosmic ray model predictions representing solar minimum conditions in the heliosphere and the 3–10 MeV post-1998 electrons observations by the Kiel Electron Telescope (KET) onboard Ulysses suggests the need for consistent changes in model parameters with increasing solar activity. In order to reduce this discrepancy, an effort is made to model the KET observations realistically during periods of increased solar activity by applying an advanced three-dimensional, steady-state electron modulation model based on Parker’s transport equation including the Jovian electron source. Some elements of the diffusion tensor which were not previously emphasized are revisited. A new relation is also established between the latitudinal dependence of the solar wind speed and the perpendicular polar diffusion. Based on this relation, a transition of an average solar wind speed from solar minimum to solar maximum conditions, as observed on board the Ulysses spacecraft, is modeled on the concept of the time-evolution of large polar coronal holes. These changes are correlated to different scenarios of the enhancement of perpendicular polar diffusion. Effects of these scenarios are illustrated, as a series of steady-state solutions, on the computed 7 MeV Jovian and galactic electrons in comparison with 3–10 MeV electrons observed from the period 1998 to the end of 2003. It is shown that this approach improves compatibility with the KET observations but it also points to the need for a time-dependent electron modulation model to fully describe modulation during moderate to extreme solar maximum conditions.     

太阳风和地球磁层相互作用的两种可能类型

本文对太阳活动20周不同活动期间的太阳风参数与地磁活动性指数分别进行了相关分析,并进一步对太阳活动极大和极小年分别对B_z和太阳风参数V、T、N的时均值日方差作了分析比较。结果指出,除目前普遍认为的IMF与地磁场重联导致的磁扰外,还有一类与B_z无关,而是由高温、高速、热不均匀太阳风等离子体导致的地磁扰动类型。      

Analysis of ionospheric TEC response to solar and geomagnetic activities at different solar activity stages

Studying the relationship of total electron content (TEC) to solar or geomagnetic activities at different solar activity stages can provide a reference for ionospheric modeling and prediction. On the basis of solar activity indices, geomagnetic activity parameters, and ionospheric TEC data at different solar activity stages, this study analyzes the overall variation relationships of solar and geomagnetic activities with ionospheric TEC, the characteristics of the quasi-27-day periodic oscillations of the three variables at different stages, and the delayed TEC response of solar activity by conducting correlation analysis, Butterworth band-pass filtering, Fourier transform, and time lag analysis. The following results are obtained. (1) TEC exhibits a significant linear relationship with solar activity at different solar activity stages. The correlation coefficients |R| are arranged as follows: |R|_EUV > |R|_F10.7 > |R|sunspot number. No significant linear relationship exists between TEC and geomagnetic activity parameters (|R| < 0.35). (2) TEC, solar activity indices, and geomagnetic activity parameters have a period of 10.5 years. The maximum amplitudes of the Fourier spectrum for TEC and solar activity indices are nearly 27 days and those of geomagnetic activity parameters are nearly 27 and 13.5 days. (3) The deviations of the quasi-27-day significant periodic oscillation of TEC and solar activity indices are consistent. (4) No evident relationship exists between the quasi-27-day periodic oscillation of TEC and geomagnetic activity parameters. (5) The delay time of TEC for the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and extreme ultraviolet is always consistent, whereas that for sunspot number varies at each stage.     

Assessment of modified surface temperatures and solar reflectance using meteorological satellite and aircraft data

Changes in surface temperature resulting from the activities of man are evaluated using meteorological satellite (NOAA and HCMM) and aircraft data. Study sites were located in Florida and Michigan. Thermal data showed that day surface temperatures over large areas could be increased by 10–15°C by modifications resulting from agricultural practices. Changes in reflected solar radiation as a function of agricultural practices were detectable using HCMM data.