The impact of solar forcing on the variability in a coupled climate model

The impact of variations in solar irradiance on the variability of climate is still a topic of debate. Herein we assess the response of a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) of intermediate complexity to an estimate of the solar variability since 1700 and to a series of idealized sinusoidal solar forcings. On the continental to global scale and averaged over periods longer than 30 years, the solar-induced variability dominates internal variability in the annual global mean surface air temperature. Locally and on the regional scale, the internal variability dominates. The dominant patterns of natural variability and explained variance are not affected by a variable solar forcing, the spectra however are sensitive. The control run shows a preferred decadal time scale of 18 year in a sea surface temperature mode associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The preferred decadal time scale disappears for a variable solar forcing. This is caused by small changes in oceanic circulation resulting in subsurface oceanic modes with modified structure and time scale.     

Analyses of sidereal and solar anisotropies in cosmic rays

The Sun's interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind modulate the distribution of galactic cosmic-ray particles in the heliosphere. The particles diffuse inward, convert outward and have drifts in the motion of their gyro-centres. Irregularities in the IMF also scatter particles from their gyro-orbits. These processes are the components of solar modulation and produce streaming (and higher-order anisotropies) of particles in the heliosphere. The anisotropies can be investigated at the Earth by examining the count rates of cosmic-ray detectors. The anisotropic streams appear as diurnal variations in solar and sidereal time in the count rates. Higher-order anisotropies produce generally much smaller semi-diurnal and higher-order variations. Theoretical models of solar modulation predict effects that depend on the polarity of the Sun's magnetic dipole. The solar diurnal and north-south anisotropies can be used to test these predictions. This paper is a short review of analyses of 60 years of cosmic-ray data collected at the Earth for the solar and sidereal diurnal variations present. Past analyses have yielded interesting and controversial results regarding the rigidity spectra and components of these anisotropies. Some of the controversy remains today. Analyses of these anisotropies have also yielded quantitative information about parameters important to solar modulation, such as latitudinal and radial density gradients. The relatively new techniques used for these determinations are explained here. Calculations of these modulation parameters from Earth-based cosmic-ray detectors are reviewed and compared to spaceprobe measurements and theoretical predictions of their values. Recently, investigations of the sidereal and solar diurnal anisotropies have been combined to calculate mean-free-paths of cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The latest conclusions from these analyses are that the parallel mean-free-paths of cosmic rays may depend on the polarity of the Sun's magnetic field. The results of these investigations are included in this paper to indicate the present state of knowledge concerning this facet of cosmic-ray research.Now at Department of Physics, Shinshu University, 3-1-1 Asahi, Matsumoto 390, Japan.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

Measurements of solar total irradiance and its variability

The development of electrically self calibrated cavity pyrheliometric instrumentation that occurred in the early 20th century provided the technological base for experiments to detect variability of the solar total irradiance. Experiments from ground based observatories, aircraft and balloons during the 1st half of the 20th century were unable to achieve sufficient accuracy or long term precision to unambiguously detect irradiance variations of solar origin. Refinements in pyrheliometric technology during the 1960's and 1970's and the accessibility of extended experimental opportunities above the Earth's atmosphere in recent years have provided the first direct observations of solar total irradiance variability and provided the cornerstone observations of a long term database on solar irradiance. A program of solar irradiance monitoring has evolved to sustain the database over at least 22 years, corresponding to a single cycle of solar magnetic activity, and the shortest well identified cycle of climate variation. Direct links between total irradiance variations, solar magnetic activity and the solar global 5 min oscillation phenomena have been derived from recent space flight observations by the SMM/ACRIM I experiment.     

Solar Variability and Climate Impact on Terrestrial Planets

Some possible factors of climate changes and of long term climate evolution are discussed with regard of the three terrestrial planets, Earth, Venus and Mars. Two positive feedback mechanisms involving liquid water, i.e., the albedo mechanism and the greenhouse effect of water vapour, are described. These feedback mechanisms respond to small external forcings, such as resulting from solar or astronomical constants variability, which might thus result in large influences on climatic changes on Earth. On Venus, reactions of the atmosphere with surface minerals play an important role in the climate system, but the involved time scales are much larger. On Mars, climate is changing through variations of the polar axis inclination over time scales of ～10⁵–10⁶ years. Growing evidence also exists that a major climatic change happened on Mars some 3.5 to 3.8 Gigayears ago, leading to the disappearance of liquid water on the planet surface by eliminating most of the CO₂ atmosphere greenhouse power. This change might be due to a large surge of the solar wind, or to atmospheric erosion by large bodies impacts. Indeed, except for their thermospheric temperature response, there is currently little evidence for an effect of long-term solar variability on the climate of Venus and Mars. This fact is possibly due to the absence of liquid water on these terrestrial planets.     

The Orbital Forcing of Climate Changes on Mars

Solar variability influences the climate of a planet by radiatively forcing changes over a certain timescale; orbital variations of a planet, which yield similar solar forcing modulations, can be studied within the same scientific context. It is known for Earth that obliquity changes have played a critical role in pacing glacial and interglacial eras. For Mars, such orbital changes have been far greater and have generated extreme variations in insolation. Signatures associated with the presence of water ice reservoirs at various positions across the surface of Mars during periods of different orbital configurations have been identified. For this reason, it has been proposed that Mars is currently evolving between ice ages. The advent of climate tools has given a theoretical frame to the study of orbitally-induced climate changes on Mars. These models have provided an explanation to many puzzling observations, which when put together have permitted reconstruction of almost the entire history of Mars in the last 10 million years. This paper proposes to give an overview of the scientific work dedicated to this topic.     

The Sun as an inconstant star

It has been thought for a long time that the luminosity of the Sun has remained constant since the Sun evolved into the Main Sequence stage almost 4.5 billion yr ago. However, many of recent data obtained from the isotopic analyses in the tree rings, meteoritic and lunar samples have shown that the luminosity and the activity of the Sun must have been varied for such long years. It seems that the one of the most important discoveries on the variability of the Sun is that of the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), during which the solar activity had been extremely weak so that no sunspot had been observed for almost seventy years. Furthermore, this minimum was almost coincident with the severest period of the Little Ice Age having covered the Earth from the early 14th to the middle 19th centuries. These results suggest a possible connection between the long-term variation of the Earth's climate and that of the solar activity.The Sun shines as emitting continuously the nuclear energy as light quanta. As well known, this energy is almost constantly being released from the thermonuclear reactions taking place in the central core of the Sun. Whenever the efficiency of these reactions changes due to some mechanisms to occur inside the Sun, the light emissivity from the Sun, namely, the Sun's luminosity, would change accordingly. Thus some change in the physical processes inside the Sun may always induce various kinds of variability as related to the rearrangement of the internal structure of the Sun. As a result of this kind of change, the Earth's climatic condition also seems to be critically influenced in association with the variation of the Sun's luminosity. Since it seems that the mean level of the solar activity for a long time, say, 100 yr, is dependent on the long-term change in the physical processes inside the Sun as related to the variation of the solar luminosity, the Earth's climatic condition may be necessarily changeable as dependent on the long-term variation of the solar activity. Some evidence is here shown by reviewing the historical records on the climatic change.A brief account is finally given on the possible origin of the inconstancy in the solar luminosity and activity.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.     

Solar Variability and Clouds – Discussion Session 3c

Satellite observations have recently revealed a surprising imprint of the 11-year solar cycle on global low cloud cover. The cloud data suggest a correlation with the intensity of galactic cosmic rays. If this apparent connection between cosmic rays and clouds is real, variations of the cosmic ray flux caused by long-term changes in the solar wind could have a significant influence on the global energy radiation budget and the climate. However a direct link between cosmic rays and clouds has not been unambiguously established and, moreover, the microphysical mechanism is poorly understood. New experiments are being planned to find out whether cosmic rays can affect cloud formation, and if so how.     

The Heliospheric Magnetic Field at Solar Maximum: Ulysses Observations

At solar maximum, the large-scale structure of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) reflects the complexity of the Sun's coronal magnetic fields. The corona is characterised by mostly closed magnetic structures and short-lived, small coronal holes. The axis of the Sun's dipole field is close to the solar equator; there are also important contributions from the higher order terms. This complex and variable coronal magnetic configuration leads to a much increased variability in the HMF on all time scales, at all latitudes. The transition from solar minimum to solar maximum conditions, as reflected in the HMF, is described, as observed by Ulysses during its passage to high southern heliolatitudes. The magnetic signatures associated with the interaction regions generated by short-lived fast solar wind streams are presented, together with the highly disordered period in mid-1999 when there was a considerable reorganisation in coronal structures. The magnetic sector structure at high heliolatitudes shows, from mid-1999, a recognisable two-sector structure, corresponding to a highly inclined Heliospheric Current Sheet. A preliminary investigation of the radial component of the magnetic field indicates that it remains, on average, constant as a function of heliolatitude. Intervals of highly Alfvénic fluctuations in the rarefaction regions trailing the interaction regions have been, even if intermittently, identified even close to solar maximum. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

Introduction to Solar Magnetism: The Early Years

The year 2008 marked the one hundredth anniversary of the observational discovery by George Ellery Hale of magnetic field in sunspots (Hale in Astrophys. J. 28:315–343, 1908). This observation, the first to suggest a direct link between the best-known variable features on the Sun and magnetism, started a line of research that has widened considerably over the last 100 years and is continuing today. Knowledge about all aspects of the Sun has increased in a remarkable way over the past few decades. Variations in the appearance of the Sun and its corona, as well as deeper sources of quasi-regular and chaotic changes that make up solar variability have been extensively documented by both ground-based and space-based solar observatories. It has been recognized that solar magnetism is the key phenomenon that drives solar variability. The workshop devoted to the origin and dynamics of solar magnetism held in the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland, from 21 to 25 January 2008 reviewed the status of the field and has led to this volume that brings together the best available knowledge and understanding of solar magnetism 100 years after Hale’s pioneering paper. This introductory paper gives an outline of the history of research into solar variability up to the work of Hale and his colleagues. The achievements of the past decades are discussed extensively in the other contributions to this volume.     

Solar Surface Magnetism and Irradiance on Time Scales from Days to the 11-Year Cycle

The uninterrupted measurement of the total solar irradiance during the last three solar cycles and an increasing amount of solar spectral irradiance measurements as well as solar imaging observations (magnetograms and photometric data) have stimulated the development of models attributing irradiance variations to solar surface magnetism. Here we review the current status of solar irradiance measurements and modelling efforts based on solar photospheric magnetic fields. Thereby we restrict ourselves to the study of solar variations from days to the solar cycle. Phenomenological models of the solar atmosphere in combination with imaging observations of solar electromagnetic radiation and measurements of the photospheric magnetic field have reached high enough quality to show that a large fraction (at least, about 80%) of the solar irradiance variability can be explained by the radiative effects of the magnetic activity present in the photosphere. Also, significant progress has been made with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of convection that allow us to relate the radiance of the photospheric magnetic structures to the observations.     

The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate

To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.     

Cosmic Rays,Clouds, and Climate

A correlation between a global average of low cloud cover and the flux of cosmic rays incident in the atmosphere has been observed during the last solar cycle. The ionising potential of Earth bound cosmic rays are modulated by the state of the heliosphere, while clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget through trapping outgoing radiation and reflecting incoming radiation. If a physical link between these two features can be established, it would provide a mechanism linking solar activity and Earth's climate. Recent satellite observations have further revealed a correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud top temperature. The temperature of a cloud depends on the radiation properties determined by its droplet distribution. Low clouds are warm (>273K) and therefore consist of liquid water droplets. At typical atmospheric supersaturations (1%) a liquid cloud drop will only form in the presence of an aerosol, which acts as a condensation site. The droplet distribution of a cloud will then depend on the number of aerosols activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the level of super saturation. Based on observational evidence it is argued that a mechanism to explain the cosmic ray-cloud link might be found through the role of atmospheric ionisation in aerosol production and/or growth. Observations of local aerosol increases in low cloud due to ship exhaust indicate that a small perturbation in atmospheric aerosol can have a major impact on low cloud radiative properties. Thus, a moderate influence on atmospheric aerosol distributions from cosmic ray ionisation would have a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget. Historical evidence over the past 1000 years indicates that changes in climate have occurred in accord with variability in cosmic ray intensities. Such changes are in agreement with the sign of cloud radiative forcing associated with cosmic ray variability as estimated from satellite observations.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Resonance in a coupled solar-climate model

The 11–year solar activity cycle is magnetic in origin and is responsible for small changes in solar luminosity and the modulation of the solar wind. The terrestrial climate exhibits much internal variability supporting oscillations with many frequencies. The direct effect of changing solar irradiance in driving climatic change is believed to be small, and amplification mechanisms are needed to enhance the role of solar variability. In this paper we demonstrate that resonance may play a crucial role in the dynamics of the climate system, by using the output from a nonlinear solar dynamo model as a weak input to a simplified climate model. The climate is modelled as oscillating about two fixed points (corresponding to a warm and cold state) with the weak chaotically modulated solar forcing on average pushing the solution towards the warm state. When a typical frequency of the input is similar to that of the chaotic climate system then a dramatic increase in the role of the solar forcing is apparent and complicated intermittent behaviour is observed. The nonlinear effects are subtle however, and forcing that on average pushes the solution towards the warm state may lead to increased intervals of oscillation about either state. Owing to the intermittent nature of the timeseries, analysis of the relevant timeseries is shown to be non-trivial.     

Reconstruction of Past Solar Irradiance

Accurate measurements of solar irradiance started in 1978, but a much longer time series is needed in order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate. In order to reconstruct the irradiance prior to 1978 we require both an understanding of the underlying causes of solar irradiance variability as well as data describing the state of the Sun (in particular its magnetic field) at the relevant epochs.Evidence is accumulating that on the time-scale of the solar cycle or less, variations in solar irradiance are produced mainly by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface. The main solar features contributing to a darkening of the Sun are sunspots, while active-region faculae and the network lead to a brightening. There is also increasing evidence for secular changes of the solar magnetic field and the associated of solar brightness variability. In part the behavior of sun-like stars is used as a guide of such secular changes.Under the assumption that solar irradiance variations are due to solar surface magnetism on all relevant time scales it is possible to reconstruct the irradiance with some reliability from today to around 1874, and with lower accuracy back to the Maunder minimum. One major problem is the decreasing amount and accuracy of the relevant data with age. In this review the various reconstructions of past solar irradiance are presented and the assumptions underlying them are scrutinized.