Weibull分布串并联系统的Bayes可靠性评估

基于工程实践中的可靠性验前信息,给出了Weibull分布下Bayes可靠性分析方法。进而针对Weibull分布的串并联系统,由单元的验后矩导出准确的系统可靠性验前矩,并在此基础上,运用最大熵准则给出了系统可靠性验前分布的估计。最后根据试验数据得出系统的验后分布,并用该分布对系统可靠性进行了评估。     

串联系统可靠的Bayes评估方法

研究了一类特殊系统（高可靠性成败单元串联系统）的Bayes可靠性评估问题。将系统可靠性验后分布函数渐近展开，利用此渐近展开式或以精确得到系统可靠性的Bayes置信区间，并且与基它方法进行比较。仿真计算表明，特殊系统采用特殊的处理方法比采用通用的方法精度要高。     

类似系统可靠性信息在复杂系统Bayes可靠性评估中的应用

先验分布的确定是运用Bayes方法进行复杂系统可靠性评估的先决条件。本文研究了利用类似系统的可靠性信息通过加权融合确定先验分布的方法。对Weibull和指数分布模型的可靠性试验结果,给出Bayes方法可靠性计算公式。最后给出的一个实例表明,该方法计算简便、便于工程应用。      

串联系统可靠性Bayes评估方法

研究了一类特殊系统(高可靠性成败单元串联系统)的 Bayes可靠性评估问题。将系统可靠性验后分布函数渐近展开,利用此渐近展开式可以精确得到系统可靠性的Bayes置信区间,并且与其它方法进行比较。仿真计算表明,特殊系统采用特殊的处理方法比采用通用的方法精度要高。     

指数型单元混联系统可靠性综合的信息论方法

研究了一种求解具有多层指数型数据混联系统可靠性近似限的信息论方法。根据单元试验信息提供的信息量与系统折合试验应提供的信息量相等的原理,导出了单元试验信息等效折合的基本公式,给出了指数型单元混联系统可靠性综合的基本模型和方法步骤,建立了系统可靠性近似限的基本模型,并以实例形式说明了方法的具体应用。      

求解具有多层试验数据成败型单元混联系统可靠性近似限的信息论方法

研究了求解具有多层成败型试验数据时,系统可靠性置信下限近似解的信息论方法,给出了各层试验数据综合的方法和步骤,推导了各层数据信息论方法折合及综合的计算公式。根据单元试验信息提供的信息量与系统折合试验应提供的信息量相等的原则,将多层试验数据逐级折合为系统的等效成败型数据,导出了等效成败型数据信息论方法折合的基本公式;结合可靠性工程的基本原理,根据单个成败型单元可靠性评定的经典精确置信限方法,给出了系统可靠性置信下限的近似解。并以实例形式说明了该方法的具体应用。     

Weibull分布串并联系统的Bayes可靠性评估

基于工程实践中的可靠性验前信息，给出了Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布下Ｂａｙｅｓ可靠性分析方法。进而针对Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布的串并联系统，由单元的验后矩导出准确的系统可靠性验前矩，并在此基础上，运用最大熵准则给出了系统可靠性验前分布的估计。最后根据试验数据得出系统的验后分布，并用该分布对系统可靠性进行了评估。     

某型发动机无失效数据的Bayes可靠性分析

在定时截尾试验中,有时会遇到无失效数据,特别是在高可靠性、小样本问题中更容易产生无失效数据。对某型发动机的无失效数据,在失效概率服从不完全Beta分布时,给出了失效概率的Bayes估计,并在引进失效信息后,给出了失效概率的Bayes估计和综合估计,从而可以得到该型发动机可靠度的估计。     

基于Bayes方法的民机冗余系统可靠性评估

民机中常通过冗余设计提高系统的可靠性,研究冗余系统的可靠性评估具有工程实用性。民机故障发生具有随机性,本文采用马尔可夫链描述民机冗余系统的状态变化;考虑到民机可靠性信息较少,要充分利用多源信息,运用Bayes方法对两设备组成的冗余系统进行可靠性评估。假定设备故障间隔和维修时间均服从指数分布,在不同的先验分布下,评估了该冗余系统的平均无故障工作时间,并计算了相应的稳态可用度。针对具体数值例,采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法,评估了民机冗余系统可靠性,并对仿真结果进行了分析。     

基于幂律退化轨道的小样本性能可靠性评定

结合航空航天领域高可靠、长寿命产品试验小子样的特点,运用性能退化可靠性理论和Bayes方法,对系统可靠性的统计推断方法进行了研究.首先对基于Bayes方法幂律退化轨道参数的计算模型进行研究,然后结合随机变量函数的分布的计算,推导出系统可靠性后验估计和置信下限估计的计算公式.在理论推导的基础上,结合工程实例说明该方法的有效性.     

多台同步可靠性增长模型存在的问题

探讨多台可靠性增长模型的统计意义,指出多台同步纠正可靠性增长试验丢掉了本可得到的大量的试验信息,失去了统计试验意义,其 AMSAA-BISE模型不能成立,多台同步试验方法不可取     

Study on segmented distribution for reliability evaluation

In practice, the failure rate of most equipment exhibits different tendencies at different stages and even its failure rate curve behaves a multimodal trace during its life cycle. As a result, traditionally evaluating the reliability of equipment with a single model may lead to severer errors. However, if lifetime is divided into several different intervals according to the characteristics of its failure rate, piecewise fitting can more accurately approximate the failure rate of equipment. There-fore, in this paper, failure rate is regarded as a piecewise function, and two kinds of segmented dis-tribution are put forward to evaluate reliability. In order to estimate parameters in the segmented reliability function, Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the seg-mented distribution are discussed in this paper. Since traditional information criterion is not suit-able for the segmented distribution, an improved information criterion is proposed to test and evaluate the segmented reliability model in this paper. After a great deal of testing and verification, the segmented reliability model and its estimation methods presented in this paper are proven more efficient and accurate than the traditional non-segmented single model, especially when the change of the failure rate is time-phased or multimodal. The significant performance of the segmented reli-ability model in evaluating reliability of proximity sensors of leading-edge flap in civil aircraft indi-cates that the segmented distribution and its estimation method in this paper could be useful and accurate.     

一种针对液体火箭发动机可靠性的双线评估方法

针对液体火箭发动机可靠性评估过程中试验数据利用不充分、主观性强、与设计改进关联不足等现状,给出了一种可靠性双线评估方法,在有限试车条件下提升可靠性评估结果的准确性,并从风险控制角度识别出发动机的薄弱环节.该方法采用两条主线开展可靠性评估,第一条线以发动机部组件试验数据为输入,以发动机工作时序为线索,识别发动机故障模式,...     

基于Bayes变动统计理论的测试性外场统计验证方法

针对故障检测/隔离数据为"小子样"情况导致的测试性外场统计验证存在的周期长、验证结论置信度低等问题,研究并提出了基于Bayes变动统计理论的的测试性外场统计验证模型和方法。首先建立了不同寿命周期阶段故障检测率(FDR)的序化关系模型;然后以Dirichlet分布为先验分布,利用不同寿命周期阶段故障检测率先验估计值确定Dirichlet分布参数;在此基础上,融合"小子样、异总体"研制阶段增长试验数据和"小子样"外场使用数据,研究并提出了故障检测率的Bayes综合评估模型;引入Gibbs抽样方法求解故障检测率Bayes综合评估模型的复杂高维后验积分;最后在某机载稳定跟踪平台上开展了应用研究。结果表明本文方法能在较短的外场使用周期内,给出较高置信度的外场验证结论,为大型高可靠性装备测试性外场统计验证研究提供了重要的理论依据。     

贝叶斯网络在动量轮地面试验可靠性分析中的应用

为了有效综合动量轮地面试验过程中积累的大量复杂试验信息,对动量轮进行可靠性定量分析.提出了利用贝叶斯网络模型,融合大量测试和调试数据、专家知识等多种信息,建立动量轮可靠性模型的方法;采用贝叶斯网络推理技术,对动量轮进行可靠性评估、故障诊断和灵敏度分析,有效解决了动量轮地面试验可靠性分析与评估等难题,为动量轮可靠性试验提供了理论指导.      

一种适宜于航空电子类机载设备的可靠性强化试验方法

目前我国军机机载电子类设备的可靠性试验主要依赖传统的可靠性模拟试验技术,其存在试验周期长、效率低、耗费大以及试验结果易受综合环境应力准确性的影响等缺点.而可靠性强化试验通过外场加严使用环境中的某类或某几类应力来进行试验,可以快速激发设备的设计缺陷和制造工艺等问题.本文提出一种适宜于军机电子类机载设备的可靠性强化试验方法流程,给出试验应力量值、加载时序、运行流程、故障处理要求和回归验证方法等试验实施细则或要求,并在某型号工程研制中进行工程实践.结果表明:试验效果显著,可显著提高设备的可靠性、节约试验经费和时间.     

无失效试验数据系统可靠性评估方法研究

理论上,样本量越大,通过估计得出的值越精确。但许多武器装备造价昂贵,危险性高,不可能做大量的现场试验进行可靠性分析,面临着如何探求无失效情况下高可靠性装备的评估问题。文中基于元件的无失效成败型试验数据,研究了指数型元件组成系统的可靠性评仆方法。     

对 GJB/Z77 多台同型产品增长模型的分析

GJB/Z77的附录A中,阐述了如何应用AMSAA模型进行多台同型产品的可靠性增长,给出了趋势检验、参数估计和拟合优度检验的方法,并提供了一个实例。对该模型进行了分析,指出GJB/Z77中存在的错误。     

Evaluation of aileron actuator reliability with censored data

For the purpose of enhancing reliability of aileron of Airbus new-generation A350 XWB,an evaluation of aileron reliability on the basis of maintenance data is presented in this paper.Practical maintenance data contains large number of censoring samples, information uncertainty of which makes it hard to evaluate reliability of aileron actuator.Considering that true lifetime of censoring sample has identical distribution with complete sample, if censoring sample is transformed into complete sample, conversion frequency of censoring sample can be estimated according to frequency of complete sample.On the one hand, standard life table estimation and product limit method are improved on the basis of such conversion frequency, enabling accurate estimation of various censoring samples.On the other hand, by taking such frequency as one of the weight factors and integrating variance of order statistics under standard distribution, weighted least square estimation is formed for accurately estimating various censoring samples.Large amounts of experiments and simulations show that reliabilities of improved life table and improved product limit method are closer to the true value and more conservative; moreover, weighted least square estimate(WLSE), with conversion frequency of censoring sample and variances of order statistics as the weights, can still estimate accurately with high proportion of censored data in samples.Algorithm in this paper has good effect and can accurately estimate the reliability of aileron actuator even with small sample and high censoring rate.This research has certain significance in theory and engineering practice.     

Reliability estimation of rotary lip seal in aircraft utility system based on time-varying dependence degradation model and its experimental validation

With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula selection approach is utilized to select the optimal copula function. Parameter estimation is carried out based on a Bayesian method and the reliability during the whole lifetime is calculated based on a Monte Carlo method. Degradation test for rotary lip seal is conducted and the proposed model is validated by test data. The optimal copula function and optimal order of polynomial are determined based on test data. Results show that this model is effective in estimating the reliability of rotary lip seals and can achieve a better goodness of fit.