On the dynamics of the heliosphere on intermediate and long time-scales

A time-dependent, three-dimensional model of the dynamics of the heliosphere as a result of solar activity and a time-varying local interstellar medium is presented. The model is based on a recent version of the well known ZEUS code and employs parallel processing. It includes the solar and interstellar plasma components as well as neutral atoms, and contains the heliospheric magnetic field in a kinematic fashion. We study the dynamics of the heliosphere due to solar activity on periods of months to years up to the so-called Schwabe (11-year) cycle as well as due to time variations of the local interstellar medium, all of which have drawn increasing attention during recent years, as the significance of their direct or indirect effect on the Earth and its environment is under lively debate.     

Spatial variation of the supersonic thermal plasma flow downstream of the termination shock

In this paper we start from the most recently observed fact that the solar wind plasma after passage over the termination shock is still supersonic with a Mach number of about 2. To explain this unexpected phenomenon and to predict the evolution of properties of the downstream plasma flow we here consider a two-fluid proton plasma with pick-up protons as a separate suprathermal, second proton fluid. We then formulate a self-consistent system of hydrodynamical conservation equations coupling the two fluids by dynamical and thermodynamical coupling terms and taking into account the effects of newly incorporated protons due to charge exchange with the H-atoms in the heliosheath. This then allows us to predict that in the most probable case the solar wind protons will become subsonic over a distance of about 30 AU downstream of the shock. As we can also show, it may, however, happen that the plasma mixture later again reconverts to a supersonic signature and has to undergo a second shock before meeting the heliopause.     

MHD modeling of the outer heliosphere: Achievements and challenges

An overview is presented of magnetic-field-related effects in the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) and the different theoretical approaches used in their investigation. We discuss the possibility that the interstellar magnetic field (ISMF) introduces north–south and east–west asymmetries of the heliosphere, which might explain observational data obtained by the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft. The SW–LISM interaction parameters that are responsible for the deflection of the interstellar neutral hydrogen flow from the direction of propagation of neutral helium in the inner heliosheath are outlined. The possibility of a strong ISMF, which increases the heliospheric asymmetry and the H–He flow deflection, is discussed. The effect of the combination of a slow-fast solar wind during solar minimum over the Sun’s 11-year activity cycle is illustrated. The consequences of a tilt between the Sun’s magnetic and rotational axes are analyzed. Band-like areas of an increased magnetic field distribution in the outer heliosheath are sought in order to discover regions of possible 2–3 kHz radio emission.     

Helioseismology and the solar cycle

Helioseismic measurements stretching back for about three decades have clearly shown that the acoustic modes are sensitive to solar-cycle changes. 2006 marks the first full 11-year cycle of continuous observations from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), and 10 years of observations with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) aboard the SOHO spacecraft. For the first time, global helioseismology has traced the migrating zonal flow pattern of the torsional oscillation deep within the convection zone, while local helioseismology has revealed the changing pattern of meridional flows over the cycle. The frequencies, lifetimes, and amplitudes of acoustic modes all show variations that closely track the surface distribution of magnetic activity and may provide insight into the excitation and damping of the oscillations. Efforts to trace magnetic field and sound speed or density changes in the solar interior have proved more challenging.     

The characteristics of valley phase as predictor of the forthcoming solar cycle

Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically investigate the correlations between valley phase and the forthcoming cycle. We find that the preceding valley phase may dominate and can be predictor of the forthcoming cycle: (1) The growth rate in ascend phase strongly negatively correlates to valley length and strongly positively correlates to cycle maximum. (2) The cycle maximum strongly negatively correlates to valley length, and strongly positively correlates to cycle minimum. (3) The cycle period strongly negatively correlates to the valley variation. Based on these correlations, we conclude that the solar cycle 24 is a relatively weak and long cycle which is obviously weaker than Cycle 23. The similarity analysis also presents the similar result. The Cycle 25 is also inferred possibly to be a weak cycle. These results can help us understanding the physical processes of solar cycles.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Study of the solar Slow Sonic,Alfvén and Fast Magnetosonic transition surfaces

In this paper we study the shape, extend and time variations of the solar wind transition surfaces using the Lima and Priest (1993) hydrodynamic model adequately adapted for the case of the solar wind flow. The transition surfaces, namely the Slow (Sonic), the Alfvén, and the Fast Magnetosonic surface, are important boundaries around the Sun and play a crucial role in the development of the solar wind and the structure of the inner heliosphere. We determine the shape and dimension of these surfaces as a function of heliographic latitude using measurements from Ulysses spacecraft, and we also study their temporal variation using data from spacecrafts at 1 AU (OMNI database). Furthermore, we establish their dependence with the solar activity, demonstrating their shape and location for the last two solar cycles. From this we noticed that the temporal variation of all transition surfaces follows the 11-year solar cycle. Finally, from the OMNI database, we have studied the temporal variation over the past 40 years of the plasma β parameter, the kinetic to magnetic and the kinetic to thermal energy ratios, at a distance of 1 AU from the Sun.     

Challenges to cosmic ray modeling: From beyond the solar wind termination shock

Voyager 1 crossed the solar wind termination shock on December 16, 2004 at a distance of 94 AU from the Sun, to become the first spacecraft to explore the termination shock region and to enter the heliosheath, the final heliospheric frontier. By the end of 2006, Voyager 1 will be at ∼101 AU, with Voyager 2 at ∼81 AU and still approaching the termination shock. Both spacecraft have been observing the modulation of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays since their launch in 1977. The recent observations close to or inside the heliosheath have provided several interesting ‘surprises’ with subsequent theoretical and modeling challenges. Examples are: what does the modulation of galactic cosmic rays amount to in this region?; how do the anomalous cosmic rays get accelerated and modulated?; why are there ‘breaks’ in the power-law slopes of the spectra of accelerated particles? Several numerical models have been applied to most of these topics over the years and comprehensive global predictions have been made the past decade, thought to be based on reasonable assumptions about the termination shock and the heliosheath. Examples of these predictions and assumptions are concisely discussed within the context of the main observed features of cosmic rays in the vicinity of the termination shock, ending with a discussion of some of the issues and challenges to cosmic ray modeling in particular.     

On the time lag between solar wind dynamic parameters and solar activity UV proxies

The solar activity displays variability and periodic behaviours over a wide range of timescales, with the presence of a most prominent cycle with a mean length of 11 years. Such variability is transported within the heliosphere by solar wind, radiation and other processes, affecting the properties of the interplanetary medium. The presence of solar activity–related periodicities is well visible in different solar wind and geomagnetic indices, although their time lags with respect to the solar cycle lead to hysteresis cycles. Here, we investigate the time lag behaviour between a physical proxy of the solar activity, the Ca II K index, and two solar wind parameters (speed and dynamic pressure), studying how their pairwise relative lags vary over almost five solar cycles. We find that the lag between Ca II K index and solar wind speed is not constant over the whole time interval investigated, with values ranging from 6 years to $～$1 year (average 3.2 years). A similar behaviour is found also for the solar wind dynamic pressure. Then, by using a Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis we obtain a 10.21-year mean periodicity for the speed and 10.30-year for the dynamic pressure. We speculate that the different periodicities of the solar wind parameters with respect to the solar 11-year cycle may be related to the overall observed temporal evolution of the time lags. Finally, by accounting for them, we obtain empirical relations that link the amplitude of the Ca II K index to the two solar wind parameters.     

Occurrence rate of SAR arcs during the 23rd solar activity cycle

The occurrence rate of SAR arcs during 1997–2007 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57°N, 200°E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (∼500 h) during ∼370 nights of observations (∼3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration probability corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, intervals of UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of SAR arc observations at the Yakutsk meridian are presented.     

Coupling of the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields at the heliospheric interface: The effect of neutral hydrogen atoms

We present numerical results showing the effect of neutral hydrogen atoms on the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM), where the interstellar magnetic field (ISMF) is coupled to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at the surface of the heliopause. The IMF on the inner boundary surrounding the Sun is specified in the form of a Parker spiral and self-consistently develops in accordance with the SW motion inside the heliopause. The model of the SW–LISM interaction involves both plasma and neutral components which are treated as fluids. The configuration is chosen where the ISMF is orthogonal to the LISM velocity and tilted 60° to the ecliptic plane. This orientation of the magnetic field is a possible explanation of the 2–3 kHz emission data which is believed to originate ahead of the heliopause. It is shown that the topology of the heliospheric current sheet is substantially affected by the ISMF. The interaction pattern dependence on the neutral hydrogen density is analyzed.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Seasonal and solar cycle dependence of F3-layer near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly

The occurrence of an additional F3-layer has been reported at Brazilian, Indian and Asian sectors by several investigators. In this paper, we report for the first time the seasonal variations of F3-layer carried out near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) at São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.0°W; dip latitude 17.6°S – Brazil) as a function of solar cycle. The period from September 2000 to August 2001 is used as representative of high solar activity (HSA) and the period from January 2006 to December 2006 as representative of low solar activity (LSA). This investigation shows that during HSA there is a maximum occurrence of F3-layer during summer time and a minimum during winter time. However, during LSA, there is no seasonal variation in the F3-layer occurrence. Also, the frequency of occurrence of the F3-layer during HSA is 11 times more than during LSA.     

Characterization of the slow wind in the outer corona

The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 23 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region.     

Statistical properties of the IMF clock angle in the solar wind with northward and southward interplanetary magnetic field based on ACE observation from 1998 to 2009: Dependence on the temporal scale of the solar wind

Utilizing ACE satellite observations from 1998 to 2009, we performed the elaborate study on the properties of the clock angle θ_CA (arctan(By/Bz) (?90° to 90°) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the solar wind at 1?AU. The solar wind with northward IMF (NW-IMF) and southward IMF (SW-IMF) are analyzed, independently. Statistical analysis shows that the solar wind with SW-IMF and NW-IMF has similar properties in general, including their durations, the IMF Bz and By components, and the IMF θ_CA. Then, the solar wind with NW-IMF (SW-IMF) is classified into five different temporal scales according to the duration of the NW-IMF (SW-IMF), i.e., very-short wind of 10–30?min, short-scale wind of 0.5–1?h, moderate-scale wind of 1–3?h, long-scale wind of 3–5?h, and super-long wind >5?h. Our analysis reveals that the IMF θ_CA has a distinct decrease with increase of the temporal scale of the solar wind. Next, the solar wind is classified into two groups, i.e., the high-speed solar wind (>450?km/s) and the low-speed solar wind (<450?km/s). Our analysis indicates that the IMF θ_CA depends highly on the solar wind speed. Statistically, high-speed solar wind tends to have larger IMF θ_CA than low-speed solar wind. The evolutions of the solar wind and IMF with the solar activity are further studied, revealing no clear solar variation of the IMF θ_CA. Finally, we analyze the monthly variation of the IMF θ_CA. Superposed epoch result strongly suggests the seasonal variation of the IMF θ_CA.     

Variation of F-region critical frequency (foF2) over equatorial and low-latitude region of the Indian zone during 19th and 20th solar cycle

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the daytime and nighttime F-layer ionization has been investigated over the equatorial and low-latitude region during 19th (1954–1964) and 20th (1965–1976) solar cycle. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the three Indian Ionosonde stations has been used for the present study. The dependence of foF2 on solar cycle has been examined by performing regression analysis between the foF2 values and R₁₂ (twelve month running average sunspot number). The result shows that the magnitude of the cycle, seasons and the location of station has considerable effects on foF2. There is a significant nonlinear relationship between the foF2 values and R₁₂ during 19th solar cycle as compared to 20th solar cycle. Further, the nighttime saturation effect is prominently seen during the 19th solar cycle and summer season. It is also observed that the most profound saturation effect appears at the equatorial ionization anomaly crest region. Seasonally, it is seen that all the stations exhibits semiannual anomaly. The phenomenon of winter anomaly decays as we move higher along the latitude and is prominently seen during the intense solar activity.     

Effect of current sheets on the power spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field using a cell model

A puzzling observation of solar wind MHD turbulence is the often seen Kolmogorov scaling of k^-5/3$k^{-5/3}$, even though the solar wind MHD turbulence is dominated by Alfvénic fluctuations. Recently Li et al. (2011) proposed that the presence of current sheets may be the cause of the Kolmogorov scaling. Here, using a cell model of the solar wind we examine the effect of current sheets on the power spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field. We model the solar wind as multiple cells separated by current sheets. We prescribe the spectra of turbulent magnetic field in individual cells as IK-like and examine the spectra along trajectories that cross multiple boundaries. We find that these spectra become softer and are consistent with the Kolmogorov-scaling. Our finding supports our recent proposal of Li et al. (2011).     

Small-scale deformation of the bow shock

The prediction of the bow shock location is a proof of our understanding of the processes governing the solar wind – magnetosphere interaction. However, the models describing the bow shock location as a function of upstream parameters are based on a statistical processing of bow shock crossings observed by a single spacecraft. Such crossings locate the bow shock in motion, i.e., in a non-equilibrium state and this fact can be a source of significant errors. We have carefully analyzed a long interval of simultaneous observations of the bow shock and magnetopause and another interval of bow shock observations at two well-separated points. Our results suggest that often a small-scale deformation of the bow shock front due to magnetosheath fluctuations is the most appropriate interpretation of observations. Since the low-frequency magnetosheath variations exhibit largest amplitudes, a simultaneous bow shock displacement over a distance of 10–15 R_E can be observed. We suggest that bow shock models can be probably improved if the tilt angle would be implemented as a parameter influencing the bow shock location in high latitudes.     

Radio sounding of the solar wind acceleration region with spacecraft signals

Data from coronal radio-sounding experiments carried out on various interplanetary spacecraft are used to derive the empirical radial dependence of solar wind velocity and density at heliocentric distances from 3 to 60 solar radii for heliolatitudes below 60° and for low solar activity. The radial dependencies of solar wind power and acceleration are derived from these results. Summaries of the radial behavior of characteristic parameters of the solar wind turbulence (e.g., the spectral index and the inner and outer turbulence scales), as well as the fractional density fluctuation, are also presented. These radio-sounding results provide a benchmark for models of the solar wind in its acceleration region.     

A superposed epoch study of the effects of solar wind stream interface events on the upper mesospheric and lower thermospheric temperature

The response of mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) temperature to energetic particle precipitation over the Earth’s polar regions is not uniform due to complex phenomena within the MLT environment. Nevertheless, the modification of MLT temperatures may require an event-based study to be better observed. This work examines the influence of precipitation, triggered by solar wind stream interfaces (SI) event from 2002 to 2007, on polar MLT temperature. We first test the relationship between the ionospheric absorption measured by the SANAE IV (South African National Antarctic Expedition IV) riometer and the layer of energetic particle precipitation from POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites). The combined particle measurements from POES 15, 16, 17 and 18 were obtained close in time to the pass of the SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature retrieval. Here, a superposed epoch technique is described and implemented to obtain average temperature profiles during SI-triggered particle precipitation. The superposed epoch average shows no significant temperature decrease below 100 km prior to the onset of SI-triggered precipitation, whereas a clear superposed average temperature decrease is observed at 95 km after the SI impact. A case study of SI event also yields similar observations. Results indicate that cooling effects due to the production of mesospheric odd hydrogen might be major contributors to temperature decrease under compressed solar wind stream.