Trends in foF2 and the 24th solar activity cycle

The trends in foF2 are analyzed based on the data of Juliusruh and Boulder ionospheric stations. It is shown that using the traditional solar activity index F10.7 leads to an impossible trend in foF2 when the data for the 24th solar activity cycle are included into the analysis. It is assumed that the F10.7 index does not describe correctly the solar ultraviolet radiation variations in that cycle. A correction of this index using the Rz (sunspot number) and Ly (intensity of the Lyman-α line in the solar spectrum) is performed, and it is shown that in that case reasonable values of the foF2 trends are obtained.     

Responses of ionospheric foF2 to geomagnetic activities in Hainan

Responses of low-latitude ionospheric critical frequency of F2 layer to geomagnetic activities in different seasons and under different levels of solar activity are investigated by analyzing the ionospheric foF2 data from DPS-4 Digisonde in Hainan Observatory during 2002–2005. The results are as follows: (1) the response of foF2 to geomagnetic activity in Hainan shows obvious diurnal variation except for the summer in low solar activity period. Generally, geomagnetic activity will cause foF2 to increase at daytime and decrease at nighttime. The intensity of response of foF2 is stronger at nighttime than that at daytime; (2) seasonal dependence of the response of foF2 to geomagnetic activity is very obvious. The negative ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in summer and the positive ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in winter; (3) the solar cycle has important effect on the response of foF2 to geomagnetic activity in Hainan. In high solar activity period, the diurnal variation of the response of foF2 is very pronounced in each season, and the strong ionospheric response can last several days. In low solar activity period, ionospheric response has very pronounced diurnal variation in winter only; (4) the local time of geomagnetic activities occurring also has important effect on the responses of foF2 in Hainan. Generally, geomagnetic activities occurred at nighttime can cause stronger and longer responses of foF2 in Hainan.     

Latitudinal variation of F2-region response to geomagnetic disturbance

The effect of geomagnetic storms on the F2 region was studied by calculating the deviation, ΔfoF2, of foF2 during 40 magnetic storms, ranging from moderate (Dst < −50 nT) to very intense (Dst < −200 nT) of the 21st solar cycle. In order to study the variation of storm-time foF2 with latitude, season and storm strength, ionosonde data were obtained from eight stations spanning a latitudinal range of +60–−60°. The stations chosen lay in a narrow longitudinal range of 140–151°, so that local time difference between the stations is practically negligible. The features exhibited by positive and negative phases were essentially different. The storm time ΔfoF2 clearly exhibited a latitudinal variation and this variation were found to be coupled with the seasonal variation. As for the variation with storm intensity, though ΔfoF2 was found to vary even between two storms of almost equal intensity, the amplitude of a positive or negative phase, |ΔfoF2max| showed a distinct upper limit for each intensity category of storms.     

A prediction model of short-term ionospheric foF2 based on AdaBoost

In this paper, the AdaBoost-BP algorithm is used to construct a new model to predict the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (foF2) one hour ahead. Different indices were used to characterize ionospheric diurnal and seasonal variations and their dependence on solar and geomagnetic activity. These indices, together with the current observed foF2 value, were input into the prediction model and the foF2 value at one hour ahead was output. We analyzed twenty-two years’ foF2 data from nine ionosonde stations in the East-Asian sector in this work. The first eleven years’ data were used as a training dataset and the second eleven years’ data were used as a testing dataset. The results show that the performance of AdaBoost-BP is better than those of BP Neural Network (BPNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the IRI model. For example, the AdaBoost-BP prediction absolute error of foF2 at Irkutsk station (a middle latitude station) is 0.32 MHz, which is better than 0.34 MHz from BPNN, 0.35 MHz from SVR and also significantly outperforms the IRI model whose absolute error is 0.64 MHz. Meanwhile, AdaBoost-BP prediction absolute error at Taipei station from the low latitude is 0.78 MHz, which is better than 0.81 MHz from BPNN, 0.81 MHz from SVR and 1.37 MHz from the IRI model. Finally, the variety characteristics of the AdaBoost-BP prediction error along with seasonal variation, solar activity and latitude variation were also discussed in the paper.     

Ionospheric response to the 3 August 2010 geomagnetic storm at mid and mid-high latitudes

The global ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm occurred of 3 August 2010 is studied in terms of the ionospheric parameter foF2. Data from three longitudinal sectors (Asia/Pacific, Europe/Africa and America) are considered. Some new aspects of the storm time ionospheric behavior are revealed. Results of the analysis show that the main ionospheric effects of the storm under consideration are: (a) prior to the storm, Japanese, Australian and American stations show increases in foF2, irrespective of the local time. (b) During the main phase, the stations of mid latitudes of the American sector show positive disturbances (in the pre-dusk hours), which subsequently change to negative. (c) During the recovery phase of the magnetic storm long-duration positive disturbances are observed at mid-low latitudes of the African chain. Also positive disturbances are observed in the Australian sector. In the European sector long-duration negative disturbances are seen at mid-high latitudes during the last part of the recovery phase while at mid-low latitudes a positive disturbance is seen, followed by a negative disturbance. In general, the ionospheric storm effects show a clear hemispheric asymmetry.     

Comparative study of foF2 measurements with IRI-2007 model predictions during extended solar minimum

The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 23/24 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements. Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRI provides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activity are used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum. One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly. Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.     

The response of African equatorial foF2 to geomagnetic storms: Comparison between observations and IRI-2007 predictions

This study examines the response of the African equatorial ionospheric foF2 to different levels of geomagnetic storms, using the foF2 hourly data for the year 1989 from Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 1.5°W, dip: 2.8°N). The study also compares the observed data for the selected storm periods with the latest IRI model (IRI-2007). The foF2 values (both observed and predicted) show typical features of daytime peak and post-midnight minimum peak. The response of the ionospheric foF2 over Ouagadougou to storms events, during the night-time and post-midnight hours indicates negative responses of the ionospheric foF2, while that of the daytime hours indicates positive responses. For the investigation on the variability of the observed foF2 with respect to IRI-2007 model, with the exception of the analysis of the 20–22, October, 1989 data, where a midday peak was also observed on the first day, this study reveals two characteristic daily foF2 variability peaks: post-midnight and evening peaks. In addition, for all the geomagnetic storms considered, the URSI and CCIR coefficients of the IRI-2007 model show reasonable correspondence with each other, except for some few discrepancies. For instance, the event of 28–30 August, 1989 shows comparatively higher variability for the URSI coefficient, and at the foF2 peak values, the event of 20–22 October, 1989 shows that the CCIR coefficient is more susceptible to foF2 variability than the URSI coefficient. This study is aimed at providing African inputs for the future improvement of the IRI model.     

Dependence of the F-region peak electron density (foF2) on solar activity observed in the equatorial ionospheric anomaly region in the Brazilian sector

The long-term (solar cycle) changes in the Sun and how it affects the ionospheric F-region observed at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.9° W), Brazil, a location under the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly, have been investigated in this paper. The dependence of the F-region peak electron density (foF2) on solar activity during the descending phase of the 23rd solar cycle for the periods of high, medium, and low solar activity has been studied. The ionospheric F-region peak electron densities observed during high and medium solar activity show seasonal variations with maxima close to the equinox periods, whereas during the low solar activity the maxima during the equinox periods is absent. However, during the low solar activity only change observed is a large decrease from summer to winter months. We have further investigated changes in the different ionospheric F-region parameters (minimum virtual height of the F-region (h′F), virtual height at 0.834foF2 (hpF2), and foF2) during summer to winter months in low solar activity periods, 2006–2007 and 2007–2008. Large changes in the two ionospheric parameters (hpF2 and foF2) are observed during summer to winter months in the two low solar activity periods investigated.     

A comparison of ionosonde measured foF2 and IRI-2016 predictions over China

A comparison of the ionospheric F-region critical frequency (foF2) between ionosonde measurements and IRI-2016 predictions is studied over China during the period from January 2008 to October 2016. Four stations are selected, and the latitude coverage starts at 49.4°N and ends at 23.2°N with a sequential latitude interval of about 10°, the corresponding geomagnetic latitudes are from 39.5°N to 13.2°N. The results show that the variability of the observed foF2 versus latitudes, seasons, local time and levels of solar activity could be well reproduced by IRI-2016. However, the daily lowest value of foF2 from the IRI-2016 prediction occurs earlier than that from the ionosonde. Around the sunrise, the IRI-2016 prediction shows a very sharp rise and grows much faster than the observed foF2 in every month. The foF2 difference between the two options (URSI and CCIR) in IRI-2016 increases as the F10.7 index decreases. During 2008–2009, the annual average deviations of URSI and CCIR range from ?5% to ?10% and from 5% to ?5%, respectively. Generally, the CCIR performs better than URSI during postsunset under low solar activity or in Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region over China, while it shows no large difference in performance with URSI in other locations or for other time.     

Diurnal and seasonal variation of F2-layer ionospheric parameters at equatorial ionization anomaly crest region and their comparison with IRI-2001

Diurnal and seasonal variations of critical frequency of ionospheric F2-region ‘foF2’ and the height of peak density ‘hmF2’ are studied using modern digital ionosonde observations of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region, Bhopal (23.2°N, 77.6°E, dip 18.5°N), during solar minimum period 2007. Median values of these parameters are obtained at each hour using manually scaled data during different seasons and compared with the International Reference Ionosphere-2001 model predictions. The observations suggest that on seasonal basis, the highest values of foF2 are observed during equinox months, whereas highest values of hmF2 are obtained in summer and lowest values of both foF2 and hmF2 are observed during winter. The observed median and IRI predicted values of foF2 and hmF2 are analyzed with upper and lower bound of inter-quartile range (IQR) and it is find out that the observed median values are well inside the inter-quartile range during the period of 2007. Comparison of the recorded foF2 and hmF2 values with the IRI-2001 output reveals that IRI predicted values exhibit better agreement with hmF2 as compared to foF2. In general, the IRI model predictions show some agreement with the observations during the year 2007. Therefore it is still necessary to implement improvements in order to obtain better predictions for EIA regions.     

Ionospheric variation at Thailand equatorial latitude station: Comparison between observations and IRI-2001 model predictions

In this paper, the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) and peak height (hmF2) measured by the FM/CW ionosonde at Thailand equatorial latitude station, namely Chumphon (10.72°N, 99.37°E, dip 3.22) are presented. The measurement data during low solar activity from January 2004 to December 2006 are analyzed based on the diurnal, seasonal variation. The results are then compared with IRI-2001 model predictions. Our study shows that: (1) In general, both the URSI and CCIR options of the IRI model give foF2 close to the measured ones, but the CCIR option produces a smaller range of deviation than the URSI option. The agreement during daytime is generally better than during nighttime. Overestimation mostly occurs in 2004 and 2006, while underestimation is during pre-sunrise hours in June solstice in 2005. The peak foF2 around sunset is higher during March equinox and September equinox than the other seasons, with longer duration of maximum levels in March equinox than September equinox. Large coefficients of variability foF2 occur during pre-sunrise hours. Meanwhile, the best agreement between the observed foF2 and the IRI model is obtained in June solstice. (2) In general, The IRI (CCIR) model predicts the observed hmF2 well during daytime in June solstice from 2004–2006, but it overestimates during March equinox, September equinox and December solstice. For nighttime, the model overestimates hmF2 values for all seasons especially during March equinox and September equinox. However, the model underestimates hmF2 values during September equinox and for some cases during June solstice and December solstice at pre-sunrise. The agreement between the IRI model and the hmF2(M3000_OBS) is worst around noontime, post-sunset and pre-sunrise hours. All comparative studies give feedback for new improvements of CCIR and URSI IRI models.     

Variability of foF2 in the African equatorial ionosphere

This paper presents the impact of diurnal, seasonal and solar activity effects on the variability of ionospheric foF2 in the African equatorial latitude. Three African ionospheric stations; Dakar (14.8°N, 17.4°W, dip: 11.4°N), Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 1.5°W, dip: 2.8°N) and Djibouti (11.5°N, 42.8°E, dip: 7.2°N) were considered for the investigation. The overall aim is to provide African inputs that will be of assistance at improving existing forecasting models. The diurnal analysis revealed that the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) is more susceptible to variability during the night-time than the day-time, with two peaks in the range; 18–38% during post-sunset hours and 35–55% during post-midnight hours. The seasonal and solar activity analyses showed a post-sunset September Equinox maximum and June Solstice maximum of foF2 variability in all the stations for all seasons. At all the stations, foF2 variability was high for low solar activity year. Overall, we concluded that equatorial foF2 variability increases with decreasing solar activity during night-time.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

第24太阳活动周中国地区电离层闪烁统计特性研究

利用第24太阳活动周中国多个地区GNSS电离层闪烁监测站数据,统计分析中国中低纬地区电离层闪烁特性.结果显示：电离层闪烁主要发生在春秋分及夜间20：00—02：00LT时段;在28°N以南地区,纬度越低电离层闪烁强度和发生概率越高;电离层闪烁发生概率与太阳活动呈正相关,太阳活动上升年电离层闪烁发生概率高于下降年;不同强度地磁活动条件下,电离层闪烁均可能发生,且与地磁活动强度整体呈负相关.通过研究电离层闪烁统计特性,可以为电离层闪烁机理的深入研究、预报及工程应用提供参考.     

Solar polar magnetic field dependency of geomagnetic activity semiannual variation indicated in the Aa index

Three major hypotheses have been proposed to explain the well-known semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, maxima at equinoxes and minima at solstices. This study examined whether the seasonal variation of equinoctial geomagnetic activity is different in periods of opposite solar magnetic polarity in order to understand the contribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Sun-Earth connection. Solar magnetic polarity is parallel to the Earth’s polarity in solar minimum years of odd/even cycles but antiparallel in solar minimum years of even/odd cycles. The daily mean of the aa, Aa indices during each solar minimum was compared for periods when the solar magnetic polarity remained in opposite dipole conditions. The Aa index values were used for each of the three years surrounding the solar minimum years of the 14 solar cycles recorded since 1856. The Aa index reflects seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity, which is greater at the equinoxes than at the solstices. The Aa index reveals solar magnetic polarity dependency in which the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the antiparallel solar magnetic polarity condition than in the parallel one. The periodicity in semiannual variation of the Aa index is stronger in the antiparallel solar polar magnetic field period than in the parallel period. Additionally, we suggest the favorable IMF condition of the semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity. The orientation of IMF toward the Sun in spring and away from the Sun in fall mainly contributes to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in both antiparallel and parallel solar minimum years.     

Long-term changes in indices of geomagnetic activity at the auroral station Sodankylä

Here we compare the traditional analog measure of geomagnetic activity, Ak, with the more recent digital indices of IHV and Ah based on hourly mean data, and their derivatives at the auroral station Sodankylä. By this selection of indices we study the effects of (i) analog vs. digital technique, and (ii) full local-time vs. local night-time coverage on quantifying local geomagnetic activity. We find that all other indices are stronger than Ak during the low-activity cycles 15–16 suggesting an excess of very low scalings in Ak at this time. The full-day indices consistently depict stronger correlation with the interplanetary magnetic field strength, while the night-time indices have higher correlation with solar wind speed. The Ak index correlates better with the digital indices of full-day coverage than with any night-time index. However, Ak depicts somewhat higher activity levels than the digital full-day indices in the declining phase of the solar cycle, indicating that, due to their different sampling rates, the latter indices are less sensitive to high-frequency variations driven by the Alfvén waves in high-speed streams. On the other hand, the night-time indices have an even stronger response to solar wind speed than Ak. The results strongly indicate that at auroral latitudes, geomagnetic indices with different local time coverage reflect different current systems, which, by an appropriate choice of indices, allows studying the century-scale dynamics of these currents separately.     

Ionospheric disturbances at low and mid-low latitudes of the South American sector during the March 2015 great storm

This paper analyzes the response of the near equatorial and low latitude ionosphere of the South American sector to the geomagnetic storm occurred on 17 March 2015. Ionosonde data from Ramey (18.5° N, 292.9° E), Jicamarca (12.0° S, 283.2° E), Boa Vista (2.8° N, 299.3° E), Sao Luis (2.6° S, 315.8° E), Fortaleza (3.9° S, 321.6° E) and Cachoeira Paulista (22.7° S, 315.0° E) are used for the study. The results show negative disturbances in foF2 at low latitudes during the main phase of the storm, which were attributed to prompt penetration electric fields. Thus, the Equatorial Anomaly (EA) started to reduce their structure in this sector since on 17 March. During the recovery phase (on 18 March), positive disturbances were observed at low, mid-low latitudes (in the post-midnight – predawn hours), which can be mainly attributed to enhanced storm-time neutral winds and composition changes (i.e., increase in the O/N2 ratio). Disturbance dynamo electric fields would also contribute in modulating the electron density of the EA during this storm period.     

Variation of F-region critical frequency (foF2) over equatorial and low-latitude region of the Indian zone during 19th and 20th solar cycle

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the daytime and nighttime F-layer ionization has been investigated over the equatorial and low-latitude region during 19th (1954–1964) and 20th (1965–1976) solar cycle. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the three Indian Ionosonde stations has been used for the present study. The dependence of foF2 on solar cycle has been examined by performing regression analysis between the foF2 values and R₁₂ (twelve month running average sunspot number). The result shows that the magnitude of the cycle, seasons and the location of station has considerable effects on foF2. There is a significant nonlinear relationship between the foF2 values and R₁₂ during 19th solar cycle as compared to 20th solar cycle. Further, the nighttime saturation effect is prominently seen during the 19th solar cycle and summer season. It is also observed that the most profound saturation effect appears at the equatorial ionization anomaly crest region. Seasonally, it is seen that all the stations exhibits semiannual anomaly. The phenomenon of winter anomaly decays as we move higher along the latitude and is prominently seen during the intense solar activity.     

Occurrence rate of SAR arcs during the 23rd solar activity cycle

The occurrence rate of SAR arcs during 1997–2007 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57°N, 200°E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (∼500 h) during ∼370 nights of observations (∼3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration probability corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, intervals of UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of SAR arc observations at the Yakutsk meridian are presented.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.