项目风险的一种模糊分析方法

由于影响项目的不确定因素繁多,专家们在评估一个项目的风险时,通常不得不使用一些模糊性语言.为了定量地评估项目的不确定性,提出了一种分析项目风险的新方法:用模糊集理论将这种模糊性语言定量化,即用一种简单的模糊数--三角模糊数来有效地表示项目的风险,通过比较这种三角模糊数的大小来判断风险的大小,从而评估出项目的优劣.最后,本文还认为如何准确地量化项目的不确定性仍是有待于进一步深入研究的课题.     

项目费用控制的一个有效手段

获得值是项目费用控制和项目进度控制的重要度量指标.本文论述了获得值的概念和方法,介绍了它在项目控制中的重要作用,以及应用获得值预测项目完工时可能的费用.然后,介绍了S曲线,S曲线可以显示在当前时间项目的费用是否超支,以及进度是提前还是滞后于计划.最后,描述了基线与预算的区别和联系.基线是控制的尺度,预算则是业主最期望花费的费用,二者的差值就是不可预见费.      

Application of NASA's advanced life support technologies in polar regions.

NASA's advanced life support technologies are being combined with Arctic science and engineering knowledge in the Advanced Life Systems for Extreme Environments (ALSEE) project. This project addresses treatment and reduction of waste, purification and recycling of water, and production of food in remote communities of Alaska. The project focus is a major issue in the state of Alaska and other areas of the Circumpolar North; the health and welfare of people, their lives and the subsistence lifestyle in remote communities, care for the environment, and economic opportunity through technology transfer. The challenge is to implement the technologies in a manner compatible with the social and economic structures of native communities, the state, and the commercial sector. NASA goals are technology selection, system design and methods development of regenerative life support systems for planetary and Lunar bases and other space exploration missions. The ALSEE project will provide similar advanced technologies to address the multiple problems facing the remote communities of Alaska and provide an extreme environment testbed for future space applications. These technologies have never been assembled for this purpose. They offer an integrated approach to solving pressing problems in remote communities.     

The Breadboard Project: a functioning CELSS plant growth system.

The primary objective of the Breadboard project for the next 3-4 years is to develop, integrate and operate a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) at a one person scale. The focus of this project over the past two years has been the development of the plant growth facility, the first module of the CELSS. The other major modules, food preparation, biomass processing, and resource recovery, have been researched at the laboratory scale during the past two years and facilities are currently under construction to scale-up these modules to an operational state. This paper will outline the design requirements for the Biomass Production Chamber (BPC), the plant growth facility for the project, and the control and monitoring subsystems which operate the chamber and will present results from both engineering and biological tests of the facility. Three production evaluations of wheat, conducted in the BPC during the past year, will be described and the data generated from these tests discussed. Future plans for the BPC will be presented along with future goals for the project as the other modules become active.     

RECENT PROGRESS IN THE PROJECT OF SPACE SOLAR TELESCOPE

In this paper, we introduce some process of the project of Space Solar Telescope in recent two years. The astronomic requirements have been further identified,the mission and operation requirements have been assessed, and some critical technologies have been performed. According to the time schedule, it is esti mated that the engineering model of the spacecraft would be completed and put into test operation in the end of 2004 and the spacecraft would be launched in about 2007.     

Progress on Space Solar Telescope in 2004 - 2006

The progress on Chinese Space Solar Telescope (SST) in 2004-2006 is introduced. The scientific objectives are further clarified and the ground operation system has been planned. The 7 key technical problems of SST satellite platform and payloads have been tackled, which lay solid scientific and technological foundations for engineering prototype phase of the SST project. At present the SST project undergoes evaluation by CNSA and CAS so as to enter the engineering prototype phase of the SST project if it is finally approved.     

Responses to satellite remote sensing opportunities in East and Southern Africa

Since 1978 the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has funded a regional remote sensing project for East and Southern Africa. The project, hosted by the Regional Centre for Services in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, has provided a programme of training courses, user services and project support. This included the equipping and establishment of a photo-laboratory complex for processing Landsat images and the provision of advice and support for agencies undertaking natural resources analysis.Response to the training programme has been very good. Courses are usually over subscribed and there is a continued demand for training. Assessments of the courses by participants are highly positive and the courses have featured consultants of international calibre. Requests for follow-up courses, and for specialist group training indicate a strong response to this training activity. User services are active, consultations with staff, use of the browse file and interpretation equipment and the purchase of data for project work all produce an average demand of 12 active enquiries per working week. The photo-laboratory is particularly active and demand for products exceeds available capacity.Project work is now being supported but limited resources restrict the range and amount of project activity. Response to the opportunities offered for projects has been favourable and this activity is ripe for expansion. The difficulty in expanding to meet the expressed demand is primarily financial. The east and southern Africa region is not economically strong and has a great need for natural resources data for development work and planning. The responses to satellite remote sensing opportunities will be limited by these financial constraints which effectively means by the level of international aid directed to this activity. For such aid to be effective it must be coordinated and firmly attached to the region. Such coordinated aid programmes would avoid fragmentation of distribution and applications work. Fragmentation could seriously disrupt the present growth in natural resources activity based on remote sensing data from satellites. The lack of financing for a regional ground receiving station is also a significant limiting factor.     

基于数字样机的飞机研制项目监控技术

由于周期漫长、数据繁杂、并发事件多等特点,飞机研制项目需要高效的管理支撑环境.针对这种需求,提出了一种基于数字样机的项目监控方法.该方法首先在项目管理与产品数据管理集成模型的基础上创建一种面向项目监控的数字样机.通过将样机模型与任务信息进行绑定,实现多视图的项目监控环境.在进行样机模型可视化时,采用双层载入策略以降低系统显示负载.该方法以对数字样机的可视化与交互为基础,向项目管理人员提供一种支持多层面信息展示的项目监控界面,丰富了项目管理用户与企业信息间的交互方式.      

Instantaneous,predictable balloon system descent from high altitude

The 13 inch diameter helium valve has long been the only method for initiating and controlling balloon system descent. As greater altitudes have become standard, the 13 inch valves have become less and less effective. It takes as long as a half hour or more to effect a noticeable descent, even with two or three valves, at altitudes in excess of 120,000 ft. The project that prompted this study called for a descent rate of >1000 ft/min from 131,000 ft to 60,000 ft. The method by which this was accomplished is presented along with recommendations for future work to provide closer control of rapid descents such as this.     

Cosmic dust analog simulation in a microgravity environment: the STARDUST program.

We have undertaken a project called STARDUST which is a collaboration with Italian and American investigators. The goals of this program are to study the condensation and coagulation of refractory materials from the vapor and to study the properties of the resulting grains as analogs to cosmic dust particles. To reduce thermal convective currents and to develop valuable experience in designing an experiment for the Gas-Grain Simulation Facility aboard Space Station Freedom we have built and flown a new chamber to study these processes under periods of microgravity available on NASA's KC-135 Research Aircraft. Preliminary results from flights with magnesium and zinc are discussed.     

神经网络在R＆D项目中止决策中的应用

在比较研究国内外Ｒ＆Ｄ项目中止决策理论方法在基础上，论述了对正在进行的Ｒ＆Ｄ项目进行正确的中止决策模式识别的重要意义。探讨了神经网络（ＮＮ）理论用于Ｒ＆Ｄ项目中止决策的可行性，提出了适用于正在进行的Ｒ＆Ｄ项目的中止决策分析的Ｈｏｐｆｉｅｌｄ神经网络模式识别方法，并用实例验证了方法的有效性。方法的实施较为方便、计算较为简单，结果也令人满意。表明Ｈｏｐｆｉｅｌｄ神经网络模式识别方法在Ｒ＆Ｄ项目中止决策     

国防R&D项目的评估与中止决策

论述了对国防R&D项目进行评估及中止决策的重要意义.探讨了神经网络方法用在国防R&D项目中期评估及中止决策的可行性.提出了适用于国防口R&D项目评估及中止决策的BP多层神经网络方法.选用了国防口正在进行研究的52个项目作为实证分析案例,利用BP多层神经网络方法对之进行了分析处理.分析结果识别出了影响国防口R&D项目发展前景的6个重要因素,同时,对52个项目进行了归类处理,并对该52个国防口R&D项目作出了继续、暂停及中止研究的决策.案例研究的结果表明,该方法实施较为方便、计算较为简单,其有效性令人满意.这表明BP多层神经网络方法在R&D项目中止决策领域具有应用前景.      

Continuous tracking of cmes using MICA, andLASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs

In this work we have tracked coronal mass ejections observed with the ground based Mirror Coronagraph for Argentina (MICA) and the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) C2 and C3 on board of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The MICA telescope is located at El Leoncito (31.8 S, 69.3 W), San Juan (Argentina), since 1997 as part of a bilateral scientific project between Germany and Argentina. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. Together these instruments are able to observe the solar corona ranging from 1.05 to 32 solar radii. MICA images the Fe XIV emission line corona and LASCO coronagraphs observe the Thomson scattered white light corona. We have selected events for which there are observations from the three coronagraphs. Using the composite data we were able to obtain height-time diagrams for the corresponding dynamical coronal features traveling outwards in order to determine some of their kinematical properties, i.e., plane of sky velocity and acceleration.     

航天测绘发展现状与展望

航天测绘是全球基础测绘的主要手段,包括卫星地形测量、卫星重力测量、卫星磁力测量、卫星测高、卫星海洋测量等。航天测绘工程的发展经历了“返回型测绘卫星”工程、“传输型测绘卫星”工程和部分“集成型测绘卫星”工程。首先梳理了国际卫星测量的发展历史和现状,阐述了我国航天测绘各个阶段所发挥的作用,并分析了存在的问题,最后对航天测绘的未来发展提出了思路。     

军用飞机,发动机战技性能评估研究

飞机、发动机战技性能的评估,无论对于改型论证工作,或者对于新机论证和初步设计都有极其重要的意义。本文介绍了由北航研究发展的飞机/发动机一体化评估系统(简称为AEAS),以及利用AEAS对军用飞机/发动机(涡喷或涡扇发动机)组合方案战技性能评估研究的一些结果。还讨论了利用AEAS具有的优选功能,根据飞机飞行任务和战技性能要求,分别或同时对飞机/发动机系统主要设计变量(如飞机起飞推重比,翼载,机翼外形几何参数和发动机循环参数等)的各种组合进行优选,求得最佳方案的算例。使用AEAS的初步经验表明,计算结果合理,计算精度和所需CPU时间适合于飞机/发动机系统方案论证和初步设计阶段工作的需要。     

Binary and millisecond radio pulsars

Recent pulsar surveys, especially those using the multibeam receiver on the Parkes radio telescope, have more than doubled the number of known pulsars, bringing the current total to about 1720. Of these, 171 have millisecond periods, 126 are members of binary systems and 99 are associated with globular clusters. Binary pulsars may be divided into several distinct groups depending on their observed properties such as pulsar period and age, binary period, eccentricity and companion mass. These groups all have different evolutionary histories. Correlations between the various properties are discussed using the increased samples now available. The Parkes Pulsar Timing Array is a project which has the goal of using timing observations of millisecond pulsars to make a direct detection of gravitational waves. The parameters and present status of the project are briefly discussed.     

多资源约束下航天多项目调度的启发式算法

为解决当前航天多型号并举研制现状下的资源约束多项目调度问题,首先建立了一个数学模型,然后根据模型的特点提出了一种启发式算法。建立的模型同时考虑多项目的总工期和各个单项目的总工期,提出的算法在考虑活动资源可剥夺以及单个活动需要多个资源的情况下,能够合理优化多项目的资源分配,缩短多项目的总工期及各项目工期。通过实例验证该方法能够有效地求解多项目调度问题,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

神舟飞船项目管理成熟度模型研究

在综合分析国际上典型的项目管理成熟度模型的基础上,结合神舟飞船项目及其组织环境的特点,建立了神舟飞船项目管理成熟度模型(SZ-PMMM)。该模型由面向企业级组织和面向项目级组织的两个项目管理成熟度模型组成。在SZ-PMMM中引入“文化”等关键领域,关注企业级组织中多项目间管理能力的差异性,拓展了项目管理成熟度的内涵,对各级组织项目管理能力的评价与改进有重要意义。     

数字调制信号误差矢量幅度校准研究

从计量领域的现状看,对于矢量信号分析仪的误差矢量幅度,分析其准确度尚没有业内统一的方法。通过对数字调制信号的调制过程和解调过程的分析,罗列出影响误差矢量幅度的各种因素。在此基础上,总结出一套对误差矢量幅度的测量结果的理论计算方法,从而提出一种EVM测量结果的不确定度评定方法。此方法能够有效地分析误差矢量幅度的数字特性。     

COST 296 action results for space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling

COST 296 Action refers to the project on Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems (MIERS) in the framework of European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), which is one of the longest-running European instruments supporting cooperation among scientists and researchers across Europe. The main objective of the MIERS project has been to develop an increased knowledge of the effects imposed by the ionosphere on practical radio systems, and for the development and implementation of techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of the ionosphere on such systems. This paper highlights COST 296 Action results that have been achieved during its lifetime period of February 2005–February 2009 with emphasis on space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling.