Is the North Atlantic Oscillation modulated by solar and lunar cycles? Some evidences from Hurst autocorrelation analysis

Several studies have suggested that the Sun and Moon cycles affect the Earth climatic dynamics. Nevertheless, there is a long-standing controversy whether solar variability and tides can significantly generate climate change, and how this may occur. Spectral analysis of climatic indices has provided only indirect evidences of the effects of solar–tidal periodicities in the Earth climate. This work addresses the issue by considering the dynamics of the daily North Atlantic Oscillation index over the period from 1950 to 2009. In contrast to previous studies, this work proposes that external cycles can be detected in the autocorrelation dynamics rather than in the raw North Atlantic Oscillation index series. Here, the R/S-scaling analysis is used to quantify, via the so-called Hurst exponent, the presence of autocorrelations along the studied years. Fourier analysis scan of the autocorrelation series thus show two prominent spectral components near (±3%) the lunar tidal 4.425 and the solar 11 years cycles. Intermediate spectral components near 6.4, 7.75 and 8.9 years are proposed to be, at least partially, a result of energy capture from internal mechanisms into cycles resulting from the nonlinear resonance of the fundamental solar–tidal cycles. The dominant effect of the solar variability is clarified by showing that in about 70% of the studied period the sunspot number and the Hurst exponent phases are synchronized, indicating that a higher solar activity enhances the North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability.     

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic for the period 1874–1995 (Mean Sea Level Pressure archive, Climatic Research Unit, UK) were compared with indices of solar and geomagnetic activity and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations characterized by the concentration of the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be. A periodicity of ∼80 yrs close to the Gleissberg cycle in the intensity of the 11-yr solar cycles was found in the pressure variations at middle latitudes (45–65°N) in the cold half of the year, which is the period of intensive cyclogenesis. It was shown that a long-term increase of pressure in this region coincided with a secular rise of solar/geomagnetic activity which was accompanied by a decrease in GCR intensity. Long-term decreases of pressure were observed during the periods of low (or decreasing) intensities of sunspot cycles. Similar features were also found in the spectral characteristics of geomagnetic activity indices, GCR intensity and pressure at middle latitudes on the quasi-decadal time scale. Effects of solar activity/GCR variations on the surface pressure seem to be more pronounced in the North Atlantic zone of intensive cyclogenesis (near the eastern coasts of North America). The results obtained suggest possible links between long-term variations in cyclonic activity at extratropical latitudes of the North Atlantic and solar activity/GCR variations on the time scales from ∼10 to ∼100 yrs.     

Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes

Indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation show correlations on the day-to-day timescale with the solar wind speed (SWS). Minima in the indices were found on days of SWS minima during years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. The spatial distribution of surface pressure changes during 1963–2011 with day-to-day changes in SWS shows a pattern resembling the NAO. Such a pattern was noted for year-to-year variations by Boberg and Lundstedt (2002), who compared NAO variations with the geo-effective solar wind electric field (the monthly average SWS multiplied by the average southward component, i.e., negative Bz component, of the interplanetary magnetic field). The spatial distribution of the correlations of geopotential height changes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the SWS; the geo-effective electric field (SWS∗Bz); and the solar 10.7 cm flux suggests that solar wind inputs connected to the troposphere via the global electric circuit, together with solar ultraviolet irradiance acting on the stratosphere, affect regional atmospheric dynamics.     

A review of short-term climate variability mechanisms

Climate varies from seasonal to centennial time scales. In the last two decades progress has been made to better understand several aspects of short-term variability of the Earth’s climate system. Tropical Pacific is dominated by a single mode of interannual climate variability, which reflects the coupling of the Ocean and the atmosphere and is expressed by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The Pacific climate contains another mode of variability similar to the ENSO, but varying on a decadal scale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mode. Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic also play an important role in modulating the climate variability. The SST variability in this basin might be explained by at least five modes: separate modes in the Tropical North Atlantic and Tropical South Atlantic, equatorial mode, dipole mode and cross-equatorial SST anomaly gradient mode. Among these modes, the equatorial mode contains strong interannual variability, while the dipole and the cross-equatorial SST anomaly gradient modes contain strong decadal variability. Some aspects of the climate variability, with emphasis on the ENSO, PDO modes in the Pacific and the Atlantic SST modes on the interannual and decadal time scales, are discussed in the present paper.     

Low energy galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere

The flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) extends over a wide range of energies (from 10⁸ to 10²⁰ eV); it has a strong dependence on particle energy. Given the large span of energies the detection techniques, transport mechanisms and other characteristics vary as energy increases. In the low energy region (<10¹² eV) the flux of GCR is modulated by the solar activity. Continuous registers are necessary to study intensity variations that must have their origin in the Sun. Detectors were designed and constructed for the purpose, they operate since the middle of the last century providing valuable information to study recurrent periodicities and their relationship to those of solar phenomena, but also to elucidate whose are the relevant transport mechanisms inside the heliosphere. A brief review of the advancement in the comprehension of these phenomena is presented.     

Regional tropospheric responses to long-term solar activity variations

The influence of ∼200-year solar activity variations (de Vries cyclicity) on climatic parameters has been analyzed. Analysis of palaeoclimatic data from different regions of the Earth for the last millennium has shown that ∼200-year variations in solar activity give rise to a pronounced climatic response. Owing to a nonlinear character of the processes in the atmosphere–ocean system and the inertia of this system, the climatic response to the global influence of solar activity variations has been found to have a regional character. The regions where the climatic response to long-term solar activity variations is stable and the regions where the climatic response is unstable, both in time and space, have been revealed. It has also been found that a considerable lag of the climatic response and reversal of its sign with respect to the solar signal can occur. Comparison of the obtained results with the simulation predictions of the atmosphere–ocean system response to long-term solar irradiance variations (T > 40 years) has shown that there is a good agreement between experimental and simulation results.     

天气尺度到气候尺度太阳风变速对中高纬大气环流的影响

通过对冬季太阳风短时(天气尺度)降速与北大西洋涛动和北极涛动等北半球中高纬度环流指数的时序重叠分析,结合对1963年以来48个冬季太阳风平均速度与北极涛动等指数的相关分析发现,从短时太阳风降速到向亚极光带沉降的辐射带高能电子通量显著下降,北极涛动也有迅速的响应,这预示着从太阳风到大气环流存在天气尺度的短时关系链,在这一时间尺度现有理论中仅有“空间粒子-大气电-云微物理”联系机制能较好地解释;太阳风速度与北极涛动的正相关信号在气候尺度上也有显著体现,太阳风可能通过高能电子沉降与北半球冬季中高纬度环流相联系,这表明太阳风通过大气电-云微物理过程驱动的过程是太阳活动影响气候变化的不可忽视的途径;开展太阳风起源、空间环境与大气(环流、电场)和地磁系统的联合观测及数值模拟是揭示日地天气与气候联系的重要研究内容之一.      

Isotopic record in a marine shallow-water core: Imprint of solar centennial cycles in the past 2 millennia

The δ¹³C profile of Globigerinoides ruber, measured in the GT90/3 shallow-water Ionian sea core and dated with high precision, is presented and analyzed using the Singular Spectrum Analysis and the Wavelet Transform. This time series covers the period 200–1979 AD, with a resolution of 3.87 years. The δ¹³C of foraminifera depends on the photosynthetic activity of the symbiontic algae living on the shells, strictly related to the illumination of the sea-surface. Both spectral methods, besides an 11-years oscillation in phase with the Schwabe cycle of the solar activity, show the presence of a centennial cycle that is in phase with the amplitude modulation of the sunspot number series in the last 300 years.Moreover, another climatic record, the tree ring δ¹³C of a Japanese cedar covering the time interval 125–1952 AD, shows a similar centennial oscillation and therefore suggests that this climatic variation is global and in phase with the solar activity.     

Investigation of the planar midlatitude ionospheric trend under different levels of solar activity

A better understanding of the ionosphere through accurate mathematical models is no doubt a crucial element. This study focuses on the challenging problem of building a model representing the complex structure of the midlatitude ionosphere. Previous studies have shown that a regional planar model is suitable in representing the total electron content (TEC) trend in the midlatitude ionosphere in both hemispheres. In this study, the planar trend model for 12 non-overlapping northern hemisphere regions in three groups of geographically near 4 regions is further investigated under different levels of solar activity; low, moderate and high. To that end, the coefficients of the model are estimated in the least squares sense using total electron content values from global ionospheric maps (GIMs) for the years 2009, 2012 and 2014. Subsequently, these coefficients are used to reconstruct estimated TEC maps which are then compared with actual GIM-TEC by investigating their difference in normalized $L_2$ norm squared sense. The regional planar trend model provides a particularly successful representation in the years 2012 and 2014 for which the solar activity level is the dominant factor determining the TEC trend. Under low solar activity conditions of 2009, other factors such as ocean currents, temperature variations and meteorological phenomena are suspected to have a considerable effect in some regions depending on their geographic location and on seasonal trends in those regions. As an example, studies show that under the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Siberian High (SH), a significant cooling trend between 2004 and 2018 in autumn is observed in Eurasia, which, in conjunction with the low solar activity levels, may be related to the deviations from the actual GIM-TEC in 2009 in these regions. As solar radiation increases, however, such bottom-side forcings are masked in 2012 and 2014 and these deviations are no longer observed.     

Solar wind and its interaction with the magnetosphere: Measured parameters

The earth's magnetosphere absorbs only a minor fraction (≈ 10^?3) of the incident solar wind energy. Variations of the solar wind can often cause lively reactions in the earth's close environment. However, the physical mechanisms involved are not yet understood. It appears now that the combined action of the solar wind momentum flux, the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field as well as its fluctuations might play the dominant role. The behaviour of these parameters is governed in some characteristic way by the solar wind stream structure which reflects the condition of the solar corona and its magnetic field topology. Transients in the sun's atmosphere associated with solar activity cause reactions in the interplanetary medium which also show some typical, though very different, signatures. Taking into account the interdependence of the solar wind parameters in context with the underlying solar phenomena, we may be able to pinpoint the mechanism which controls the action of the solar wind on the magnetosphere.     

Evaluating the predictability of eight Atmospheric-Oceanic signals affecting Iran’s Droughts,employing intelligence based and stochastic methods

The large-scale atmospheric-oceanic phenomena are among the main effective factors in the droughts in the Middle East, especially in Iran. Since these effects are usually delayed, their relevant signals can be useful for predicting droughts. As a result, the provision of a precise prediction of these signals can be efficient in increasing the drought prediction prospect. The current study predicts 8 cases of the most effective oceanic signals on the droughts which have been investigated in Iran. To do so, the problem-solving method with the time series prediction approach is based on the two model types intelligence-based (including multilayer perceptron [MLP] and support vector machine [SVM]) and stochastic (including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [ARIMA]) has been used. The model's input for each index included the time lags of the same index itself, which was determined by the autocorrelation function. Based on the evaluation criteria, the results were indicative of the weak predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), while the Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (Niño [1 + 2]), East Central Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (Niño [3 + 4]), and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were predicted with very good accuracy, and there is a high overlap between their predictions and observations (95.9 % < R² < 99.3 %). In the extreme events also, the rate of normalized forecasting error for Niño (1 + 2), Niño (3 + 4), and ONI were in the medium (20–30 %), good (10–20 %), and excellent (0–10 %) ranges, respectively. The comparison between the models also indicates a partial superiority of the ARIMA stochastic model over the SVM and MLP models. The overall results of the study are indicative of the applicability of the predictions of the three mentioned indices as the inputs to increase precipitation and drought forecasting prospects in Iran (as well as all regions affected by them); which have the research value for further studies in terms of drought forecasting.     

Observations with the SMM gamma-ray spectrometer

The Gamma Ray Spectrometer on the SMM satellite has observed solar cosmic energetic photon transients since 17 February 1980. Using the data available through 1981, new results have been obtained on ion acceleration phenomena in solar flares. It now is evident that both ion and electron acceleration can take place impulsively, simultaneously or within seconds of one another. That the impulsive acceleration process can produce ions with energies as high as GeV/nucleon is directly shown by observations of neutrons at the Earth with energies of several hundred MeV. These two facts and the relative timing of hard X-ray emissions provide new constraints on solar flare particle acceleration theory. New flare spectra have also been observed showing new nuclear γ-ray lines not previously observed from ²⁴Mg, ²⁰Ne and ⁵⁶Fe as well as from other elements. These spectral observations provide new information on the relative abundances of the accelerated and target nuclei. Following a review of the solar data and implications for flare theories we will also give a brief review of the results obtained on nonsolar γ-ray bursts. Most such bursts have photon spectra extending to MeV energies but with little, if any, evidence for spectral features.     

Solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray intensity changes, preceding the cyclone appearances around Mexico

Recently it has been suggested that there exist specific changes in the cosmic ray intensity and some solar and geomagnetic parameters during the days, preceding the hurricane appearances over the North Atlantic Ocean. To understand better these phenomena, data for all hurricanes born not only over the Atlantic but also over the Pacific waters in the last 55 years that hit the Mexican borders were elaborated. As basic hurricane parameters the maximum rotational velocity and the estimated total energy were used. To avoid any interference all hurricanes, overlapping the preceding ones with more than 20 days were not included. Then the behavior of the cosmic ray (CR) intensity, the sunspot (SS) numbers, and the geomagnetic parameters (AP) and (KP) in 35 days prior and 20 days after the cyclone start were investigated. The CR, SS, AP and KP showed much more intensive disturbances in the periods preceding and following the hurricane appearance. For SS this disturbance gradually increase with the hurricane strength. A characteristic peak in the CR intensity appears before the hurricane start. But its place varies between 5 and 20 days before that start. Specific changes were observed in the SS. For major hurricanes they begins sometimes more than 20 days in advance. The AP and the KP show series of bursts, spread over the whole period of 30 preceding days. The obtained results from the performed correlational analysis are enough interesting to motivate a further statistical analysis with more precise techniques: in particular a common periodicity of 30 years found in the number of tropical storms landing into Mexico, the averaged rotational wind velocity and the ACE must be studied in connection with the solar Hale cycle. Using coherence wavelet spectral analysis we present a comparative study between one terrestrial and one cosmophysical phenomena that presumable influence hurricanes development: African dust outbreaks versus cosmic rays for all North Atlantic tropical cyclones. It is shown that the cosmophysical influence cannot be considered as a negligible effect.     

A spectroscopic measurement of high velocity spray plasma from an M-class flare and coronal mass ejection

The M1.5-class flare and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) of 16 February 2011 was observed with the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on board the Hinode spacecraft. Spray plasma associated with the CME is found to exhibit a Doppler blue-shift of 850 km s^?1 – one of the largest values reported from spectroscopy of the solar disk and inner corona. The observation is unusual in that the emission line (Fe xii 193.51 Å) is not observed directly, but the Doppler shift is so large that the blue-shifted component appears in a wavelength window at 192.82 Å, intended to observe lines of O v, Fe xi and Ca xvii. The Fe xii 195.12 Å emission line is used as a proxy for the rest component of 193.51 Å. The observation highlights the risks of using narrow wavelength windows for spectrometer observations when observing highly-dynamic solar phenomena. The consequences of large Doppler shifts for ultraviolet solar spectrometers, including the upcoming Multi-slit Solar Explorer (MUSE) mission, are discussed.     

Hybrid simulations of the O ion escape from Venus: Influence of the solar wind density and the IMF x component

As an initial effort to study the evolution of the Venus atmosphere, the influence of the solar wind density and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) x component (the x-axis points from Venus towards the Sun) on the O⁺ ion escape rate from Venus is investigated using a three-dimensional quasi-neutral hybrid (HYB-Venus) model. The HYB-Venus model is first applied to a case of the high-density (100 cm⁻³) solar wind interaction with Venus selected from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter observations to demonstrate its capability for the study. Two sets of simulations with a wide range of solar wind densities and different IMF x components are then performed. It is found that the O⁺ ion escape rate increases with increasing solar wind density. The O⁺ ion escape rate saturates when the solar wind density becomes high (above 100 cm⁻³). The results also suggest that the IMF x component enhances the O⁺ ion escape rate, given a fixed IMF component perpendicular to the x-axis. Finally, the results imply a higher ion loss rate for early-Venus, when solar conditions were dramatically different.     

Dynamical characterization of the last prolonged solar minima

The planetary hypothesis of the solar cycle is an old idea in which the gravitational influence of the planets has a non-negligible effect on the causes of the solar magnetic cycle. The advance of this hypothesis is based on phenomenological correlations between dynamical parameters of the Sun’s movement around the barycentre of the Solar System and sunspots time series; and more especially, identifying relationships linking solar barycentric dynamics with prolonged minima (especially Grand Minima events). However, at present there is no clear physical mechanism relating these phenomena. The possible celestial influence on solar cycle modulation is of great importance not only in solar physics but also in Earth sciences, because prolonged solar minima have associated important climatic and telluric variations, in particular, during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum. In this work we looked for a possible causal link in relation with solar barycentric dynamics and prolonged minima events. We searched for particular changes in the Sun’s acceleration and concentrated on long-term variations of the solar cycle. We show how the orbital angular momentum of the Sun evolves and how the inclination of the solar barycentric orbit varies during the epochs of orbital retrogressions. In particular, at these moments, the radial component of the Sun’s acceleration (i.e., in the barycentre-Sun direction) had an exceptional magnitude. These radial impulses occurred at the very beginning of the Maunder Minimum, during the Dalton Minimum and also at the maximum of cycle 22 before the present extended minimum. We also found a strong correlation between the planetary torque and the observed sunspots international number around that maximum. We apply our results in a novel theory of Sun–planets interaction that it is sensitive to Sun barycentric dynamics and found a very important effect on the Sun’s capability of storing hypothetical reservoirs of potential energy that could be released by internal flows and might be related to the solar cycle. This process begins about 40 years before the solar angular momentum inversions, i.e., before Maunder Minimum, Dalton Minimum, and before the present extended minimum. Our conclusions suggest a dynamical characterization of peculiar prolonged solar minima. We discuss the possible implications of these results for the solar cycle including the present extended minimum.     

Post-flare thermal waves in the solar corona

While imaging giant post-flare arches in the solar corona, the Hard X-Ray Spectrometer aboard the SMM detected thermal disturbances propagating through the corona after two-ribbon flares. The speed of propagation is close to, or below, 10 km s^?1, and no obvious time-variation of the speed is indicated in the HXIS data. For subsequent two-ribbon flares in the same active region, these thermal disturbances (waves) exhibit highly homologous properties; thus the waves appear to propagate through preexisting arches formed after earlier flares. Temperatures of > 20 × 10⁶ K have been detected in these moving phenomena. We suggest that we see here in X-rays upper products of the consecutive reconnections which create the post-flare loops below. Temperature maps in fine field of view of HXIS offer now a new possibility to detect postflare arches in the corona built during two-ribbon flares.     

An investigation of the solar cycle impact on the lower thermosphere O(S) nightglow emission as observed by WINDII/UARS

The yearly variation of the integrated emission rate of the O(¹S) nightglow in the lower thermosphere is studied and the solar cycle impact is examined from the observations of the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) operated on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). More than 300,000 volume emission rate profiles of the O(¹S) nightglow observed by WINDII for 40°S–40°N latitudes during November 1991–August 1997 over half of a solar cycle are utilized. These profiles are vertically integrated for the altitude range of 80–100 km and the equivalent column integrated emission rates are then zonally averaged for bins with 10° latitude and 3 month intervals. It is found that for each latitude the O(¹S) nightglow emission rate appears to increase with increasing solar F10.7 cm flux, following a linear relationship. This characterizes the solar cycle impact on the O(¹S) nightglow, while the solar influence is modulated by a seasonal variation. Based on these variations, an empirical formula is derived for predicting the three-month averages of the O(¹S) nightglow integrated emission rate. The standard error of the estimated values from the formula is smaller than 30 Rayleigh.     

Response of the mid-latitude D-region ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 studied using VLF signals in South Korean peninsula

In this paper, we analyze VLF signals received at Busan to study the the D-region changes linked with the solar eclipse event of 22 July 2009 for very short (∼390 km) transmitter–receiver great circle path (TRGCP) during local noon time 00:36–03:13 UT (09:36–12:13 KST). The eclipse crossed south of Busan with a maximum obscuration of ∼84%. Observations clearly show a reduction of ∼6.2 dB in the VLF signal strength at the time of maximum solar obscuration (84% at 01:53 UT) as compared to those observed on the control days. Estimated values of change in Wait ionospheric parameters: reflection height (h′) in km and inverse scale height parameter (β) in km⁻¹ from Long Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) model during the maximum eclipse phase as compared to unperturbed ionosphere are 7 km and 0.055 km⁻¹, respectively. Moreover, the D-region electron density estimated from model computation shows 95% depletion in electron density at the height of ∼71 km. The reflection height is found to increase by ∼7 km in the D-region during the eclipse as compared to those on the control days, implying a depletion in the Lyman-α flux by a factor of ∼7. The present observations are discussed in the light of current understanding on the solar eclipse induced D-region dynamics.     

The investigation of powerful solar flares characteristics by analysis of excited states of C and various neutrons capture lines

Accelerated energetic particles in solar flares produced nuclear γ-lines in interactions with ambient solar atmosphere. Analysis of intensity of ratios between various γ-lines allows us to make estimations of abundance of elements, parameters of surrounding media and other solar characteristics. In this article we discuss the flux ratio between two lines from excited states of ¹²C (f_15.11/f_4.44) and our results of preliminary calculation of intensity ratio between two neutron capture lines at ³He and ¹H (f_20.58/f_2.223). In particular we consider the opportunity to obtain n(³He)/n(¹H) ratio during solar flares and using high-energy gamma-emission studying, based on the satellite data. Possible interpretation of spectral features observed during the January 20, 2005 solar flare is discussed. Preliminary analysis of energy spectrum in the band of 2–21 MeV gives n(³He)/n(¹H) ∼ 8 × 10⁻⁴ for January 20, 2005 solar flare.