空间科学规划及对航天运输系统的需求

空间科学不仅能够推动我国在基础科学研究领域取得重大科学突破,还能够有效牵引、带动航天高新技术的发展。中国科学院空间科学战略性先导科技专项是"十二五"时期我国空间科学领域最重要的系统性进展,开启了中国空间科学发展的新篇章。"十三五"时期,我国将继续研制、发射一系列新的空间科学卫星,这对航天运输系统提出了新的技术发展需求。发展空间科学必将推动我国的航天强国、世界科技强国建设进程。     

Norway's future in space

Norway has recently published its national long-term plan for space activities (1993–1996) and the main points of this are reproduced here. While telecommunications, positioning and navigation and Earth observation are understandably given a high priority, there is also an emphasis on space transportation and space science, and a belief that Norwegian industry and research institutes are capable of gaining contracts beyond the agreed scope of the country's participation in ESA.     

Rationale and systems architecture for a near-term human lunar return

Early human missions to the Moon have landed on six different sites on the lunar surface. These have all been in the low-latitude regions of the near side of the Moon. Early missions were designed primarily to assure crew safety rather than for scientific value. While the later missions added increasingly more challenging science, they remained restricted to near-side, low-latitude sites. Since the 1970s, we have learned considerably more about lunar planetology and resources. A return within the next five to ten years can greatly stimulate future human space exploration activities. We can learn much more about the distribution of lunar resources, especially about hydrogen, hydrated minerals, and water ice because they appear to be abundant near the lunar poles. The presence of hydrogen opens the possibility of industrial use of lunar resources to provide fuel for space transportation throughout the solar system.This paper discusses the rationale for near-term return of human crews to the Moon, and the advantages to be gained by selecting the Moon as the next target for human missions beyond low-Earth orbit. It describes a systems architecture for early missions, including transportation and habitation aspects. Specifically, we describe a primary transportation architecture that emphasizes existing Earth-to-orbit transportation systems, using expendable launch vehicles for cargo delivery and the Space Shuttle and its derivatives for human transportation. Transfer nodes should be located at the International Space Station (ISS) and at the Earth-Moon L1 (libration point).Each of the major systems is described, and the requisite technology readiness is assessed. These systems include Earth-to-orbit transportation, lunar transfer, lunar descent and landing, surface habitation and mobility, and return to Earth. With optimum reliance on currently existing space systems and a technology readiness assessment, we estimate the minimum development time required and perform order-of-magnitude cost estimates of a near-term human lunar mission.     

The next steps in exploring deep space—A cosmic study by the IAA

This paper presents the results of an IAA cosmic study on the Next Steps in Exploring Deep Space, the goal of which is to provide a vision for the scientific exploration of space by humans in the first half of the 21st Century. The study provides a roadmap for a systematic, logical, and science-driven plan for exploration of the Solar System and unlocking the mysteries of the Universe—a program that builds gradually and systematically to establish a permanent presence at each outpost along the way, and that builds the communications, transportation and other logistical infrastructure as it proceeds. The study suggests a set of long-term scientific goals for space exploration that provide the context for carrying out scientific investigations at specific destinations in space. An architecture is derived for the space flight infrastructure required to pursue these science goals at the specified destinations, including examination of the relevant policy and public engagement in this enterprise.     

The US national space transportation policy: issues for congress

Below is a summary of what was to be the first in a series of reports produced by the Office of Technology Assessment (now defunct) on policy for the USA's future space transportation technology and industrial base. It examines the Clinton Administration's 1994 National Space Transportation Policy and supporting implementation plans and raises and analyses such issues as conflicts and redundancies within NASA and DoD space transportation development programs; competition and cooperation with foreign launch vehicle and component providers; US government limits on the conversion of long-range missiles to space launchers in the face of Russian activity in this area; and the effectiveness of Administration efforts to include the private sector in space transportation decision making. Some issues not covered in the Policy are also discussed.     

升力式火箭动力航班化航天运输系统的关键技术挑战

航班化航天运输系统是重复使用航天运输系统的高级形式,具有高可靠、低成本、智能化、规模化、产业化等特点。基于火箭动力发展航班化航天运输系统是切实可行的技术途径之一,升力式火箭动力航班化航天运输系统具备实现类似飞机航班形式的快速周转发射能力,同时对航天运输技术也提出了新的挑战。结合航班化航天运输系统的发展态势和技术方案,重点分析了升力式火箭动力航班化航天运输系统面临的技术挑战,提出了后续研究重点与发展建议。     

Explaining public support for space exploration funding in America: A multivariate analysis

Recent studies have identified the need to understand what shapes public attitudes toward space policy. I address this gap in the literature by developing a multivariate regression model explaining why many Americans support government spending on space exploration. Using pooled data from the 2006 and 2008 General Social Surveys, the study reveals that spending preferences on space exploration are largely apolitical and associated instead with knowledge and opinions about science. In particular, the odds of wanting to increase funding for space exploration are significantly higher for white, male Babyboomers with a higher socio-economic status, a fondness for organized science, and a post-secondary science education. As such, I argue that public support for NASA's spending epitomizes what Launius termed “Apollo Nostalgia” in American culture. That is, Americans benefitting most from the old social order of the 1960s developed a greater fondness for science that makes them more likely to lament the glory days of space exploration. The article concludes with suggestions for how to elaborate on these findings in future studies.     

US space transportation policy : History and issues for a new administration

The new US administration faces complex questions on the future role of the USA in space, and tough decisions on how to pay for it. Decisions made now on space transportation will have a strong impact on US space leadership for the next decade. The author discusses the history and current state of space transportation planning, and considers the key issues which will confront the new administration.     

Competitiveness of commercial space transportation services

Competition between the providers of space transportation has become intense with the distinct possibility of governments providing both direct and indirect subsidies in order to influence transportation user choices. This bodes well for users of transportation services but has serious ramifications with regard to the future makeup of the international space transportation industry. This paper addresses the following key issues: selecting a launch service given a decision to establish a business to provide satellite communication services; establishing the price that should be bid by a launch provider in order to have a specified chance of being awarded the launch contract; and assessing the possibility that a launch provider is utilizing unfair or predatory pricing in order to increase the likelihood of winning launch contracts and thereby increasing market share. A method is developed and results presented based upon establishing ‘value in use’ pricing that explicitly takes into account the multiple attributes of alternative launch services. This leads to an assessment of ‘predatory’ pricing in terms of the value in use pricing.     

Future spacelift projection

In 1996 the NASA Advisory Council asked for a comprehensive look at future launch projections out to the year 2030 and beyond. In response to this request NASA sponsored a study at The Aerospace Corporation to develop long-range space transportation models for future commercial and government applications, and to analyze the design considerations and desired characteristics for future space transportation systems. Follow-ons to present space missions as well as a wide array of potential new space applications are considered in the study. This paper summarizes the space transportation system characteristics required to enable various classes of future missions. High reliability and the ability to achieve high flight rates per vehicle are shown to be key attributes for achieving more economical launch systems. Technical, economic and policy implications are also discussed.     

Basic space science and developing countries

Basic science — including space science — is vital for national development, but developing countries often meet obstacles to participation in the international scientific community. This can be mitigated by international cooperation, particularly in the field of education. The author calls for a concerted effort to increase such cooperation regionally, internationally and bilaterally; international organizations should also become involved. Various forms of cooperation are suggested and UN efforts in the promotion of basic space science are described.     

Redefining safety in commercial space: Understanding debates over the safety of private human spaceflight initiatives in the United States

In 2009 President Obama proposed a budget for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that canceled the Constellation program and included the development of commercial crew transportation systems into low Earth orbit. This significant move to shift human spaceflight into the private sector sparked political debate, but much of the discourse has focused on impacts to “safety.” Although no one disputes the importance of keeping astronauts safe, strategies for defining safety reveal contrasting visions for the space program and opposing values regarding the privatization of U.S. space exploration. In other words, the debate over commercial control has largely become encoded in arguments over safety. Specifically, proponents of using commercial options for transporting astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) argue that commercial vehicles would be safe for astronauts, while proponents of NASA control argue that commercial vehicles would be unsafe, or at least not as safe as NASA vehicles. The cost of the spaceflight program, the technical requirements for designing a vehicle, the track record of the launch vehicle, and the experience of the launch provider are all incorporated into what defines safety in human spaceflight. This paper analyzes these contested criteria through conceptual lenses provided by fields of science and technology policy (STP) and science, technology, and society (STS). We ultimately contend that these differences in definition result not merely from ambiguous understandings of safety, but from intentional and strategic choices guided by normative positions on the commercialization of human spaceflight. The debate over safety is better considered a proxy debate for the partisan preferences embedded within the dispute over public or private spaceflight.     

Future spacelift projections

In 1996 the NASA Advisory Council asked for a comprehensive look at future launch projections out to the year 2030 and beyond. In response to this request NASA sponsored a study at The Aerospace Corporation to develop long-range space transportation models for future commercial and government applications, and to analyze the design considerations and desired characteristics for future space transportation systems. Follow-ons to present space missions as well as a wide array of potential new space applications are considered in the study. This paper summarizes the space transportation system characteristics required to enable various classes of future missions. High reliability and the ability to achieve high flight rates per vehicle are shown to be key attributes for achieving more economical launch systems. Technical, economic and policy implications are also discussed.     

中国运载火箭技术发展

中国航天运输系统建设起步于20世纪60年代,经过近50年的发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就,建设了布局合理、覆盖全面的空间运输系统体系,能够将不同有效载荷发射到低、中、高不同轨道。国际合作方面,在搭载发射、商业卫星发射服务和在轨交付3个方面也取得了一定成绩。对中国航天运输系统发展成就进行了总结,对航天运输系统未来发展特别是人工智能技术应用进行了展望。     

Making space law relevant to basic space science in the commercial space age

Space science has been at the heart of humanity's activity in space, a fact reflected in the body of space law set up to regulate such activity. The increase in commercial utilisation of space may threaten the conduct of space science; reform of space law, however, could alleviate this situation. Using the examples of radio and light interference, and space debris, this articles examines ways in which the law could be reformed to improve conditions for scientists. It also discusses the need for, and equitable ways of, prioritising space activities. The forthcoming IHY 2007 should provide an opportunity for scientists to showcase their achievements.     

可重复使用空间往返运输系统的最新发展

可重复使用的空间往返运输系统具有广泛的军事用途和商业应用前景 ,因此成为各国争相发展的目标。本文简要介绍了世界主要航天国家在重复使用运输系统方面的发展情况、技术特点和发展趋势     

发展高可靠低成本进出空间技术，迎接太空经济时代（英文）

The worldwide space industry has entered a new space economy era. The question is how to develop in this new era? This paper tries to answer this question from two aspects: highly reliable and low-cost technology for access to space, and the cislunar economic zone. Firstly, the development requirement of the future space transportation system is discussed and the development path to enable high-reliability and a low cost of space transportation system is analyzed. Moreover, the concept of a routine space transportation system is proposed, upon which this paper gives some thoughts to the development of the cislunar economic zone thus embracing the new space economy era.     

Space policy and the size of the space shuttle fleet

During the space shuttle era, policy makers have repeatedly wrestled with the issue of fleet size. The number of shuttles had both practical and symbolic significance, reflecting the robustness of the space transportation system and US preeminence in space. In debating how many shuttles were needed, NASA and other government entities weighed various arguments to determine the optimum number of vehicles for human spaceflight. Deliberations and decisions about shuttle fleet size reflected changing policy priorities and attitudes about the role of the shuttle. That history frames issues that may arise again in planning for new space transportation vehicles beyond the shuttle.     

Goals for space exploration based on stakeholder value network considerations

We present a methodology that provides traceable analysis from stakeholders’ needs to prioritized goals for human space exploration. We first construct a network to represent the stakeholder environment of NASA’s human exploration efforts, then assess the intensity of these stakeholder needs, and build a numerical model to represent the flow of value in the network. The underlying principle is that as a rational actor, NASA should invest its resources in creating outputs that provide the greatest return of support to it. We showcase this methodology, seeded with test data, the results of which suggests that the most important outputs of the exploration endeavor are human and robotic exploration firsts and science data, but also include funding to the science community, providing interesting NASA mission event content directly to the public and to the media, and commercial contracts. We propose that goals should be structured to ensure these value outputs, and be written in such as way as to convey the subsequent creation of value in the network. The goals derived in this manner suggest that the majority of the value created by human space exploration derives from campaign level design, rather than from operation of transportation elements. There would be higher assurance that these value outputs would be delivered if a responsible official or entity within the exploration function was specifically tasked with ensuring stakeholder value creation.