Solar cycle variation of “killer” electrons at geosynchronous orbit and electron flux correlation with the solar wind parameters and ULF waves intensity

To construct models for hazard prediction from radiation belt particles to satellite electronics, one should know temporal behavior of the particle fluxes. We analyzed 11-year variation in relativistic electron flux (E>2 MeV) at geosynchronous orbit using measurements made by GOES satellites during the 23rd sunspot cycle. As it is believed that electron flux enhancements are connected with the high-speed solar wind streams and ULF or/and VLF activity in the magnetosphere, we studied also solar cycle changes in rank order cross-correlation of the outer radiation belt electron flux with the solar wind speed and both interplanetary and on-ground wave intensity. Data from magnetometers and plasma sensors onboard the spacecraft ACE and WIND, as well as magnetic measurements at two mid-latitude diametrically opposite INTERMAGNET observatories were used. Results obtained show that average value of relativistic electron flux at the decay and minimum phases of solar activity is one order higher than the flux during maximum sunspot activity. Of all solar wind parameters, only solar wind speed variation has significant correlation with changes in relativistic electron flux, taking the lead over the latter by 2 days. Variations in ULF amplitude advance changes in electron flux by 3 days. Results of the above study may be of interest for model makers developing forecast algorithms.     

Observation of the Near Plasma Sheet,Ring Current,and Energetic Electrons from Radiation Belts at a Geosynchronous Orbit,March 11–25, 1992

The dynamics of near plasma sheet electrons and ions (E 0.1–12.4 keV), ring current protons (E _i 41–133 keV), and energetic electrons from the Earth's radiation belts (E _e 97–1010 keV) is considered using the data from the Gorizont-34and Gorizont-35geosynchronous satellites from March 11–25, 1992. Peculiarities of this period are a long (more than 4 days) interval of the northward interplanetary magnetic field (B _z> 0) and a high-speed stream of the solar wind with an enhanced particle density. The SC and compression of the magnetosphere to the geosynchronous orbit (GMC) preceded this interval. Under quiet and moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions and under a prolonged northward interplanetary magnetic field, we observed a significant decrease of fluxes and softening of spectra of the electron component of plasma in the energy ranges of 0.1–12.4 keV and 97–1010 keV, and of the ion component of plasma at energies of 0.1–4 keV, while the intensity of 5–12.4 keV ion fluxes increases by about one order of magnitude. The peculiarities of distributions of energetic particle fluxes observed in the period under consideration can be associated with significant variations of the convection conditions and a decreased or fully suppressed injection of energetic electrons into the geosynchronous orbit region.     

不同地磁活动期间地球同步轨道

文章利用地球同步轨道GOES6～12卫星1986-2006年约两个太阳活动周期的高能电子角通量密度数据,分析了在地磁平静期或不同程度磁暴期间高能电子通量的变化,为建立更精确的航天器内部充电动态模型奠定基础。研究结果表明:地球同步轨道高能电子通量随太阳活动周期的变化规律表现为,在太阳活动极大年通量较低,极小年反而较高;高能电子通量随季节的变化规律表现为,在冬至和夏至附近通量达到最低值,春秋分附近达到最高值;Dst指数最小时,对应的高能电子通量一般较低。     

Geosynchronous magnetopause crossings on October 29–31, 2003

During the period October 29–31, 2003, geosynchronous magnetopause crossings (GMC) have been identified based on the magnetic data of the GOES series spacecraft and plasma data of the LANL series spacecraft. It is shown that most of the time the size of the dayside magnetosphere was highly decreased under the effect of very high pressure associated with high velocities and densities of the solar wind plasma, as well as high negative values of the B_z component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). For tens of hours the subsolar magnetopause was deep inside the geosynchronous orbit. During the main phase and at the maximum of the strong geomagnetic storms that occurred in the period under consideration, the dayside magnetosphere was characterized by a strong dawn-dusk asymmetry, so that its size in the postnoon sector considerably exceeded the size in the pre-noon sector. The geomagnetic disturbances in the morning on October 30 and 31, 2003 were accompanied by global magnetospheric pulsations with periods of 5–10 min and high amplitude (up to 0.8 R_E).Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2004, pp. 574–584.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Dmitriev, Suvorova.     

Proton Events and X-ray Flares in the Last Three Solar Cycles

A database joining the available information about proton enhancements near the Earth and their possible solar sources is organized on the basis of proton measurements of the GOES and IMP-8 satellites, the data of neutron monitors, and GOES X-ray measurements. One thousand one hundred and forty-four proton events with energy > 10 MeV have been selected in the period from 1975 to 2003. More than a half of these events can be reliably related to X-ray solar flares. A statistical analysis shows the probability of observing solar protons near the Earth and their maximum flux value to be strongly dependent on the importance of a flare and its heliolongitude. Proton events are recorded after all suitably located (western) flares with X-ray importance > X5. The heliolongitude of a flare predetermines the character of the time profile of proton events in many respects. The relationship of proton events with the other characteristics of flares is established. The flares associated with proton enhancements are characterized by longer duration, slower rise to the X-ray maximum, smaller temperature, and larger length of the X-ray loops.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2005, pp. 171–185.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Belov, Garcia, Kurt, Mavromichalaki.     

Relationship between the fluxes of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit and the level of ULF activity on the Earth’s surface and in the solar wind during the 23rd solar activity cycle

We present the results of a cross-correlation analysis made on the basis of Spearman’s rank correlation method. The quantities to correlate are daily values of the fluence of energetic electrons at a geosynchronous orbit, intensities of ground and interplanetary ultra-low-frequency (ULF) oscillations in the Pc5 range, and parameters of the solar wind. The period under analysis is the 23rd cycle of solar activity, 1996–2006. Daily (from 6 h to 18 h of LT) magnetic data at two diametrically opposite observatories of the Intermagnet network are taken as ground-based measurements. The fluxes of electrons with energies higher than 2 MeV were measured by the geosynchronous GOES satellites. The data of magnetometers and plasma instruments installed on ACE and WIND spacecraft were used for analysis of the solar wind parameters and of the oscillations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Some results elucidating the role played by interplanetary ULF waves in the processes of generation of magneospheric oscillations and acceleration of energetic electrons are obtained. Among them are (i) high and stable correlation of ground ULF oscillations with waves in the solar wind; (ii) closer link of mean daily amplitudes of both interplanetary and ground oscillations with ‘tomorrow’ values of the solar wind velocity than with current values; and (iii) correlation of the intensity of ULF waves in the solar wind, normalized to the IMF magnitude, with fluxes of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere.     

Sources and Losses of Energetic Electrons at Low Altitudes from Satellite Data

Fluxes and differential spectra of 0.04–2.0 MeV electrons at low altitudes in the Earth's magnetosphere are considered in comparison with the model spectra AE-8 MAX and AE-8 MIN. Possible causes of the discrepancy between the observational and model spectra are discussed. The coefficients of radial diffusion at various L-shells are estimated for the maximum of solar activity (using the Interkosmos-19 data) and for the minimum of solar activity (using the Kosmos-1686 data) and are derived from the model AE-8. A quantitative evaluation of the electron yield from radial diffusion at low L shells is derived. Ionization losses, Coulomb angle scattering, and resonant wave–particle interaction are considered as the loss mechanisms. A calculation of these losses at the low L-shells is given. The electron distribution at low L-shells is best fitted by a combination of dissipative terms from different models: Coulomb scattering dominates at the lower L-shells (L = 1.2–1.4) and the resonant wave–particle interaction controls the radiation belt maximum and the gap (L = 1.4–2.0).     

Orientation of Sharp Fronts of the Solar Wind Plasma

Based on simultaneous observations performed by several spacecraft, we evaluate the orientation of sharp (with a duration of a few minutes) and large (tens and hundreds percent of the mean value) fronts of the solar wind plasma (changes in the ion flux and ram pressure). The orientation of the fronts is determined with respect to the Sun–Earth line and to two planes in space for several tens of the largest (in amplitude) changes of the ion flux. A considerable fraction of these fronts (about 50%) has an inclination to the plane perpendicular to the Sun–Earth line that exceeds 30°.     

Dynamics of the 0.3–100 MeV Proton Energy Spectra in the Inner Heliosphere in Quiet Periods of 1974–1991

Variations of the proton spectra in the 0.3–100 MeV energy range based on the data of various instruments installed onboard the IMP-8 satellite are studied for very quiet, quiet, and quasi-stable solar activity periods during the years 1974–1991. As many as 118 spectra were approximated by two power laws: the left-hand and galactic branches of the spectrum were fitted by the AE ^– function and a dependence of the CE type, respectively, the sum J(E) = AE ^– + CE providing the total spectrum. It is shown that the spectra vary within a solar cycle with a shift of the minimum energy (E _min) to higher energies with increasing solar activity. It follows from the relations between the spectrum parameters thus obtained that, in particular periods of time, an increase (decrease) of the particle flux in the low-energy branch of the spectrum and an intensification (depression) of the GCR particle flux modulation take place simultaneously. This is manifested in a shift of the spectrum parallel to the energy axis. The study of the spectra in the most quiet time during three successive solar minima have shown that low-energy (0.3–10 MeV) protons, as well as GCR, are subject to the 22-year variation in the solar magnetic cycle.     

Radial gradient of low-energy (∼0.5–2 MeV) protons at 20–80 AU in the solar activity minima of the 22nd and 23rd cycles

The value of the radial gradient of low-energy (0.5–2 MeV) protons in the heliosphere at distances of 20–80 AU in the periods of solar activity minima in 1985–1987 and 1994–1997 was estimated using the data of the Voyager-1 and Voyager-2 spacecraft (s/c). Preliminary results on the dependence of the radial gradient on the distance were obtained for protons of these energies. The value of the radial gradient varies from –3% (AU)^–1 to –1% (AU)^–1 at distances from the Sun of 20–60 AU, reaching +0.7% (AU)^–1 at maximum considered distances (80 AU). The sign reversal of the proton radial gradient at a distance of 60–70 AU is interpreted as the appearance of a new component: up to the point of inversion there are mainly particles of the solar origin and/or accelerated in the inner heliosphere, while after the reversal of the gradients sign the fluxes of particles prevail whose source is located far from the Sun (maybe in the vicinity of the heliosphere boundary in the region of existence of the termination shock).Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 1, 2005, pp. 3–8.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Logachev, Zeldovich, Surova.     

Short-term variation of cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy and solar activity

A correlative analysis has been made between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity (sunspot numbers) during high amplitude days for the period 1991–1995. The high amplitude days with the time of maximum in the corotational/azimuthal direction do not indicate any significant correlation with solar activity. The diurnal amplitude significantly remains constant and high (0.5%) during the entire period. Our observations suggest that the direction of the anisotropy of high amplitude anisotropic wave train events contribute significantly to the short-term behavior of the cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy. The correlation coefficient is found to remain positive during solar activity maximum for all the high amplitude anisotropic wave train events.     

Observations of March 29, 2006 solar eclipse in the radio range at wavelengths of 3.2 and 4.9 cm

We present observations and processing of the March 29, 2006 solar eclipse data at the radio telescopes RT-3 (λ = 4.9 cm) and RT-2 (λ = 3.2 cm) of the Kislovodsk Solar Station of the Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory of RAS. Registration of the emission flux was conducted by electron method with a time resolution of 0.5 s. Compact sources on the solar disk are identified, and the contribution of coronal holes into the integral flux is determined. Comparisons to observations in the optical and X-ray ranges are performed. The intensity of sources behind the solar limb is estimated. The ratio of the intensity of residual radiation in the maximum phase to the solar emission before the eclipse was equal to 3.7 and 5.9% for 3.2 and 4.9 cm, respectively.     

Power Losses of Solar Arrays under the Action of an Environment in a Geosynchronous Orbit

We derive calculated and experimental relations characterizing the reduction in the electric power of solar arrays under prolonged (∼10 years) action of the environment in orbit. The influence of separate factors related to the environment on the loss of solar arrays power is studied. The following factors are considered: ionizing and ultraviolet emissions, contamination of protective glass by the products of destruction of the outer surface materials of spacecraft, thermal cycling, radiation electrization, and plasma thrusters plumes.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 4, 2005, pp. 274–282.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shuvalov, Kochubei, Gubin, Tokmak.     

Simultaneous Response of the Mid-Latitude Ionosphere to a Sudden Commencement of Strong Magnetic Storms

Using the new technology of global GPS detection of ionospheric disturbances (GLOBDET), it is found that a sharp increase of the time derivative of the magnetic field strength during magnetic storms is accompanied by a simultaneous decrease of the mid-latitude total electron content (TEC) over the entire dayside of the globe. The corresponding negative correlation coefficient is no less than 0.8, and the delay relative to the sudden commencement of magnetic storm is about 3–10 min. The effect is especially clearly pronounced for magnetic storms with sudden commencements (SSC). The analysis is carried out for a set of 90 to 300 GPS stations for 10 days (January 6 and April 23, 1998; April 6, June 8, July 13, 14, and 15, 2000; March 31, April 4 and 11, 2001) with various levels of geomagnetic activity (D _st and K _p varied from –6 to –295 nT and from 0 to 9, respectively). The amplitude of the response in the total electron content for the events considered was 0.1–0.4 × 10¹⁶ m^–2 (which is a deviation of 0.2–2.6% from the TEC background value). The velocity of the disturbance motion from the dayside to the nightside was about 10–20 km/s. The results obtained agree with the data of ionospheric parameter measurements conducted earlier by methods with high temporal resolution.     

A socio-economic evaluation of the lunar environment and resources: II. Energy for the selenosphere

This first of several study papers, based on a fundamental paper presented in 1972, provides an independent conceptual analysis and evaluation of the lunar environment as industrial base and habitat. A selenosphere system strategy is outlined. The underlying concept is that of one or several lunar industrial zones for resource extraction and on-surface processing, integrated with a circumlunar zero-g processing capability, serving markets in geolunar space. A classification of lunar elements by utilization category is presented. Lunar oxygen is a prime candidate for being an initial economic “drawing card”, because of its value for fast transportation in geolunar space, requiring significantly fewer ships for equal transfer capability per unit time than electric transports which, however, have value, especially between geosynchronous and lunar orbit. The reduced development difficulties of controlled fusion outside the atmosphere and its advantages for extracting oxygen and other elements in quantity are summarized. Examples of lunar cycle management as fundamental exoindustrial requirement for economic resource enhancement are presented. The principal initial socio-economic value of lunar industry lies in the use of lunar resources for exoindustrial products and operations designed to accelerate, intensify and diversify Earth-related benefits. In the longer run, lunar settlements are a highly suitable proving ground for studying and testing the complex matrix of technological, biological, cultural, social and psychological aspects that must be understood and manageable before large settlements beyond Earth can have a realistic basis for viability. The lunar environment is more suitable for experimentation and comparatively more “forgiving” in case of failures than is orbital space.     

Estimation of the Probability of Radiation Failures and Single Particle Upsets of Integrated Microcircuits onboard the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fobos-Grunt</Emphasis> Spacecraft

When designing the radio-electronic equipment for long-term operation in a space environment, one of the most important problems is a correct estimation of radiation stability of its electric and radio components (ERC) against radiation-stimulated doze failures and one-particle effects (upsets). These problems are solved in this paper for the integrated microcircuits (IMC) of various types that are to be installed onboard the Fobos-Grunt spacecraft designed at the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “Lavochkin Research and Production Association.” The launching of this spacecraft is planned for 2009.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2005, pp. 237–239.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Kuznetsov, Popov, Khamidullina.     

Large and sharp changes of solar wind dynamic pressure and disturbances of the magnetospheric magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit caused by these variations

The large and sharp changes of solar wind dynamic pressure, found from the INTERBALL-1 satellite and WIND spacecraft data, are compared with simultaneous magnetic field disturbances in the magnetosphere measured by geosynchronous GOES-8, GOES-9, and GOES-10 satellites. For this purpose, about 200 events in the solar wind, associated with sharp changes of the dynamic pressure, were selected from the INTERBALL-1 satellite data obtained during 1996–1999. The large and sharp changes of the solar wind dynamic pressure were shown to result in rapid variations of the magnetic field strength in the outer magnetosphere, the increase (drop) of the solar wind dynamic pressure always lead to an increase (drop) of the geosynchronous magnetic field magnitude. The value of the geomagnetic field variation strongly depends on the local time of the observation point, reaching a maximum value near the noon meridian. It is shown that the direction of the B _z component of the interplanetary magnetic field has virtually no effect on the geomagnetic field variation because of a sharp jump of pressure. The time shift between an event in the solar wind and its response in the magnetosphere at a geosynchronous orbit essentially depends on the inclination of the front of a solar wind disturbance to the Sun-Earth line.     

基于小波变换的卫星阻力系数分析

以不同弧长解算天宫一号空间实验室连续55天（d） GPS轨道数据得到卫星阻力系数Cd 序列,并对同期的太阳辐射通量 f 10.7 和地磁活动指数 ap,Ap序列高、低频多层小波分解。空间环境参量和Cd 序列各层信号滑动相关性的统计分析结果表明小波分解的阻力系数序列与对应的 f 10.7 ,Ap 序列整体具有很好的滞后相关性,验证了通过 f 10.7 ,Ap 预报 Cd 的可行性。对不同回归模型和回归分析样本序列长度n分析Cd预报值残差表明：采用f 10.7 一元回归模型,并取n20 d时, Cd 预报结果最优。另外,NRLMSIS-00模型在350km高度的中低纬度区域,地磁活动上升相响应过度,而下降相则响应不足;太阳辐射通量上升相响应适度,下降相响应过度。最后对应用前景进行总结,该方法对提高航天器轨道预报精度具有重要参考价值。     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000

Within the framework of the Space Weather program, 25-year data sets for solar X-ray observations, measurements of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the solar wind, and D _st index variations are analyzed to reveal the factors that have had the greatest influence on the development of magnetospheric storms. The correlation between solar flares and magnetic storms practically does not exceed a level of correlation for random processes. In particular, no relation was found between the importance of solar flares and the minimum of the D _st index for storms that could be connected with considered flares by their time delay. The coronal mass ejections (CME; data on these phenomena cover a small part of the interval) result in storms with D _st < –60 nT only in half of the cases. The most geoeffective interplanetary phenomena are the magnetic clouds (MC), which many believe to be interplanetary manifestations of CMEs, and compressions in the region of interaction of slow and fast streams in the solar wind (the so-called Corotating Interaction Region, CIR). They correspond to about two-thirds of all observed magnetic storms. For storms with –100 < D _st < –60 nT, the frequencies of storms from MC and CIR being approximately equal. For strong storms with D _st < – 100 nT, the fraction of storms from MC is considerably higher. The problems of reliable prediction of geomagnetic disturbances from observations of the Sun and conditions in interplanetary space are discussed.     

Properties of Sharp and Large Changes in the Solar Wind Ion Flux (Density)

The results of a detailed study of large (by 20% and more) and sharp (faster than ten minutes) changes of the ion flux in the solar wind are presented. The data are provided by regular measurements onboard the INTERBALL-1 satellite in the period 1996–1999. Using statistical analysis, we obtained the distribution of these changes in their absolute and relative strength. It is shown that, for a considerable proportion of the events, such sharp and large changes of the ion flux (density) take place under conditions of fairly constant values of the solar wind velocity and of both the magnitude and components of the interplanetary magnetic field.