Health scorecard of spacecraft platforms: Track record of on-orbit anomalies and failures and preliminary comparative analysis

Choosing the “right” satellite platform for a given market and mission requirements is a major investment decision for a satellite operator. With a variety of platforms available on the market from different manufacturers, and multiple offerings from the same manufacturer, the down-selection process can be quite involved. In addition, because data for on-obit failures and anomalies per platform is unavailable, incomplete, or fragmented, it is difficult to compare options and make an informed choice with respect to the critical attribute of field reliability of different platforms. In this work, we first survey a large number of geosynchronous satellite platforms by the major satellite manufacturers, and we provide a brief overview of their technical characteristics, timeline of introduction, and number of units launched. We then analyze an extensive database of satellite failures and anomalies, and develop for each platform a “health scorecard” that includes all the minor and major anomalies, and complete failures—that is failure events of different severities—observed on-orbit for each platform. We identify the subsystems that drive these failure events and how much each subsystem contributes to these events for each platform. In addition, we provide the percentage of units in each platform which have experienced failure events, and, after calculating the total number of years logged on-orbit by each platform, we compute its corresponding average failure and anomaly rate. We conclude this work with a preliminary comparative analysis of the health scorecards of different platforms.The concept of a “health scorecard” here introduced provides a useful snapshot of the failure and anomaly track record of a spacecraft platform on orbit. As such, it constitutes a useful and transparent benchmark that can be used by satellite operators to inform their acquisition choices (“inform” not “base” as other considerations are factored in when comparing different spacecraft platforms), and by satellite manufacturers to guide their testing and reliability improvement programs. Finally, it is important to keep in mind that these health scorecards should be considered dynamic documents to be updated on a regular basis if they are to remain accurate and relevant for comparative analysis purposes, as new information will impact their content.     

Space-based servicing

On-orbit servicing of spacecraft and payloads is one of the most viable economic justification for a permanent, manned space station. Services include the changeout of Orbital Replaceable Units (ORU's), the replenishment of consumables, general maintenance, on-orbit assembly and repair of failures. Among economic and operational advantages are: longer spacecraft operational lifetime; lower acquisition cost of satellites; improved spacecraft performance. A comparison is made between space station and shuttle-based servicing.     

在轨维护与服务体系研究

在梳理在轨维护与服务主要任务、关键技术及相应指标需求的基础上,总结出了在轨维护与服务的任务体系、技术体系和指标体系,提出了下一步技术发展重点建议。     

Observations from over a decade of experience in developing faster, better, cheaper missions for the NASA small explorer program

The Small Explorer (SMEX) Project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has accumulated nearly a decade of experience building missions with the underlying philosophy of “Faster, Better, Cheaper” (FBC). Five satellites are now successfully operating on-orbit with only one serious instrument anomaly. Together this Project has accumulated 14.6 years of on-orbit experience without a spacecraft bus failure. Additionally, this project, under the Explorer Technology Infusion effort, has developed a protoflight version of a 21^st Century FBC spacecraft bus that has just completed environmental qualification and has been selected at the base spacecraft for NASA's Triana mission. Design and production of these six high performance spacecraft, in just ten years time, has provided a unique base of experience from which to draw lessons learned. This paper will discuss the fundamental practices that have been used by the SMEX Project in achieving this record of success.     

载人航天器密封舱内管路设备维修设计与验证

载人航天器密封舱内配置大量的气、液管路设备,实现管路设备的在轨维修,对于提高长期在轨飞行载人航天器的安全性及使用寿命具有重要意义。文章对某载人航天器再生生保管路设备在轨维修性进行了设计,经地面充分验证后,航天员在轨完成了管路设备维修操作,结果表明本文提出的管路设备在轨维修设计正确、有效,可为载人航天器其他在轨维修设计提供参考。     

The Voyager Interstellar Mission

The Voyager Interstellar Mission began on January 1, 1990, with the primary objective being to characterize the interplanetary medium beyond Neptune and to search for the transition region between the interplanetary medium and the interstellar medium. At the start of this mission, the two Voyager spacecraft had already been in flight for over twelve years, having successfully returned a wealth of scientific information about the planetary systems of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, and the interplanetary medium between Earth and Neptune. The two spacecraft have the potential to continue returning science data until around the year 2020. With this extended operating lifetime, there is a high likelihood of one of the two spacecraft penetrating the termination shock and possibly the heliopause boundary, and entering interstellar space before that time. This paper describes the Voyager Interstellar Mission--the mission objectives, the spacecraft and science payload, the mission operations system used to support operations, and the mission operations strategy being used to maximize science data return even in the event of certain potential spacecraft subsystem failures. The implementation of automated analysis tools to offset and enable reduced flight team staffing levels is also discussed.     

航天器在轨释放安全性分析与仿真研究

针对航天器舱内在轨释放任务,文章建立了大型航天器与伴随卫星的动力学模型和运动学模型,并分析了影响释放安全性的主要因素;从保证航天器在轨安全的角度,得到描述释放安全性的最小相对距离计算方法,并利用ADAMS软件对航天器在轨释放过程进行了仿真研究。     

航天器在轨寿命预测与可靠性评价

文章重点分析了航天器在轨寿命和可靠性的影响因素,提出了航天器在轨寿命预测和可靠性评价的基本研究思路并分析了研究的内容,提出了航天器基础在轨寿命的概念。     

卫星太阳电池阵在轨故障统计及分析

文章针对2000年1月至2012年9月期间79颗在轨卫星发生的114次太阳电池阵故障事件进行了分类统计分析,并利用Kaplan-Meier估计量分析方法对这些在轨故障进行了可靠性分析。结果表明:太阳电池阵的故障多发生在卫星在轨第一年,其中电子类故障发生率较高;不同卫星平台的系统缺陷或设计共性问题也与太阳电池阵故障紧密相关。最后,结合我国卫星太阳电池阵设计及制造工艺技术,提出了加强出厂前的测试和试验验证、加强仿真建模、加强冗余设计等建议。     

载人航天器在轨维修地面仿真验证技术

为满足载人航天器型号对微重力和真空环境下的维修性仿真验证需求,文章提出并实现了一种混合式仿真验证平台。阐述了在轨维修仿真验证平台整体构架,建立了航天员模型、航天服模型及舱体维修模型,给出了在轨微重力和真空环境下进行维修的可视性、可达性及维修操作时间的仿真验证方法。利用该平台对在轨维修任务进行仿真验证,结果表明,该平台可以有效仿真和验证在轨维修,为维修性设计和优化提供了手段。     

A complexity-based risk assessment of low-cost planetary missions: when is a mission too fast and too cheap?

Under constrained budgets and rigid schedules, NASA and industry have greatly increased their utilization of small satellites to conduct low-cost planetary investigations. Recent failed small planetary science spacecraft such as Mars Polar Lander (MPL) and Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO), and impaired missions such as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) have fueled the ongoing debate on whether NASA's “Faster, Better, Cheaper” (FBC) approach is working. Several noteworthy failures of earth-orbiting missions have occurred as well including Lewis and the Wide-field Infrared Experiment (WIRE). While recent studies have observed that FBC has resulted in lower costs and shorter development times, these benefits may have been achieved at the expense of lowering probability of success. One question remaining to be answered is when is a mission “too fast and too cheap” that it is prone to failure? This paper assesses NASA FBC missions in terms of a complexity index measured against development time and spacecraft cost. A comparison of relative failure rates of recent planetary and earth-orbiting missions are presented, and conclusions regarding dependence on system complexity are drawn.     

共面快速受控绕飞轨迹设计与控制

绕飞运动在航天器在轨服务与在轨支援、辅助航天员舱外活动、航天器编队飞行、空间交会对接等空间活动中具有重要应用。分析了快速受控绕飞的可行性和主要过程，建立了适用于目标航天器运行在圆轨道上的共面快速绕飞和进入绕飞与退出绕飞的轨迹设计模型，采用多速度脉冲控制方法和等角度，等时间控制方式对绕飞轨迹进行控制。仿真计算结果表明所提出的快速受控绕飞轨迹设计模型和控制方法可以实现对圆轨道目标航天器的共面快速受控绕飞。     

面向航天器在轨加注的地面模拟技术

文章结合近年来航天器在轨加注的相关研究,着重对其地面模拟试验技术进行了探讨。首先对国外相关地面模拟技术进行了综述,其次对一种新型地面模拟系统进行了详细介绍。该系统由气浮平台、航天器模拟器、光学测量系统、地面控制系统、自主对接和流体加注机构等组成,不仅能演示航天器在轨加注任务的全过程,而且能完整演示自主对接与分离、流体传输与控制、导引测量与推进等在轨加注关键技术。     

非合作空间目标自主交会凸优化制导技术

为解决非合作空间目标机动、自旋、章动等动态特性对自主交会过程带来的困难和挑战,在某飞行器姿轨控一体化推进系统配置的基础上,充分考虑各类约束后构建标准的凸优化自主交会数学模型;着重分析了非合作目标动态特性对制导误差的影响,设计相应的修正策略;以原始对偶内点法作为核心求解器,设计了具备状态预测和更新能力的制导算法;数学仿真验算表明,该方法合理可行,克服了动态特性造成的接近轨迹偏差,良好地适应了非合作交会任务。     

归因于空间环境的航天器故障与异常

天然空间环境对航天器设计、研制和运行的影响是NASA马歇尔空间飞行中心系统分析和集成实验室电磁与航空宇宙环境部组织编写的一系列NASA RP报告的主题.其中,NASA RP-1390详细概述了天然空间环境7个主要环境因素,包括它们的简单定义、相关的型号计划事项以及对各种航天器分系统的影响.该报告提供100多个从1974...     

Europa Lander

A Europa Lander mission has been assigned high priority for the post-2005 time frame in NASA's Space Science Enterprise Strategic Plan. Europa is one of the most scientifically interesting objects in the solar system because of the strong possibility that a liquid water ocean exists underneath its ice-covered surface. The primary scientific goals of the proposed Europa Lander mission are to characterize the surface material from a recent outflow and look for evidence of pre-biotic and possibly biotic chemistry. The baseline mission concept involves landing a single spacecraft on the surface of Europa with the capability to acquire samples of material, perform detailed chemical analysis of the samples, and transmit the results to Earth. This paper provides a discussion of the benefits and status of the key spacecraft and instrument technologies needed to accomplish the science objectives. Also described are variations on the baseline concept including the addition of small auxiliary probes and an experimental ice penetration probe.     

Novel mission concepts for polar coverage: An overview of recent developments and possible future applications

The paper provides a survey of novel mission concepts for continuous, hemispheric polar observation and direct-link polar telecommunications. It is well known that these services cannot be provided by traditional platforms: geostationary satellites do not cover high-latitude regions, while low- and medium-orbit Sun-synchronous spacecraft only cover a narrow swath of the Earth at each passage. Concepts that are proposed in the literature are described, including the pole-sitter concept (in which a spacecraft is stationary above the pole), spacecraft in artificial equilibrium points in the Sun–Earth system and non-Keplerian polar Molniya orbits. Additionally, novel displaced eight-shaped orbits at Lagrangian points are presented. For many of these concepts, a continuous acceleration is required and propulsion systems include solar electric propulsion, solar sail and a hybridisation of the two. Advantages and drawbacks of each mission concept are assessed, and a comparison in terms of high-latitude coverage and distance, spacecraft mass, payload and lifetime is presented. Finally, the paper will describe a number of potential applications enabled by these concepts, focusing on polar Earth observation and telecommunications.     

国外空间大型网状天线在轨展开故障与对策

空间大型网状天线在轨可靠展开是确保航天任务取得成功的关键。对国外自1974—2011年间发射的部分科学、商业和军用航天器携带的大型网状天线在轨展开故障情况进行了统计,介绍了各天线展开故障的机理,并对天线展开故障应急处理方法和设计改进措施进行了总结。根据空间大型天线展开的特点,提出了加强天线抗冲击能力、充分开展天线机构实验验证和展开故障应急处理预案研究等建议。     

航天器间无线通信链路中断的预测研究

研究了持续相对运动中,主、从航天器之间的无线通信链路中断问题,提出了其通信中断情况的仿真分析方法。基于Friis传输方程,根据主、从航天器天线的发射功率、带外抑制和接收机灵敏度等,解算接收信号强度余量。以此模型为基础进行仿真,得到了航天器间无线通信链路中断情况的分析结果,并与实际在轨情况进行比较。结果表明,文章提出的仿真分析方法能够对持续相对运动航天器间的无线通信链路中断情况进行预测,可为实际任务的顺利完成提供技术支持。     

Comparative cost and utility analysis of monolith and fractionated spacecraft using failure and replacement Markov models

Failure of a single component on-board a spacecraft can compromise the integrity of the whole system and put its entire capability and value at risk. Part of this fragility is intrinsic to the current dominant design of space systems, which is mainly a single, large, monolithic system. The space industry has therefore recently proposed a new architectural concept termed fractionation, or co-located space-based network (SBN). By physically distributing functions in multiple orbiting modules wirelessly connected, this architecture allows the sharing of resources on-orbit (e.g., data processing, downlinks). It has been argued that SBNs could offer significant advantages over the traditional monolithic architecture as a result of the network structure and the separation of sources of risk in the spacecraft. Careful quantitative analyses are still required to identify the conditions under which SBNs can “outperform” monolithic spacecraft. In this work, we develop Markov models of module failures and replacement to quantitatively compare the lifecycle cost and utility of both architectures. We run Monte-Carlo simulations of the models, and discuss important trends and invariants. We then investigate the impact of our model parameters on the existence of regions in the design space in which SBNs “outperform” the monolith spacecraft on a cost, utility, and utility per unit cost basis. Beyond the life of one single spacecraft, this paper compares the cost and utility implications of maintaining each architecture type through successive replacements.