复杂装备研制项目的风险源识别

大型复杂装备研制项目高风险与参研单位多的特点使得研制过程中风险传导时有发生。针对风险传导要素风险源的识别问题,提出了一种基于关联规则(AR)与决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的风险源识别方法。该方法从数据挖掘的角度,先求解出风险类型与风险因素的关联规则,再求解出风险源之间的影响程度,最后通过DEMATEL得到各风险源相关参数。并且对某参研单位数据库中某阶段的数据用此方法完成了风险源的识别,识别结果显示了各风险类型对应的风险源以及易导致研制项目发生风险传导的风险源。     

Structure of the Program of Short-term Prediction of Powerful Solar Flares

Input data of the system are two-dimensional images and one-dimensional distributions of total and polarized solar emission at 5.2 cm wavelength obtained with SSRT. Together with photoheliograms, magnetograms, Hα-filtergrams and characteristics of active regions received from other sources, they form the initial database. The first stage includes superimposing the images, identifying microwave sources with active regions, assigning NOAA numbers to the sources, and determining for each active region the heliolatitude, extent, and inclination angle of the group's axis to the equator. These data are used to calculate the boundaries of longitude zones for each active region. A next stage involves determining the brightness temperatures of microwave sources less than the polarization distribution, the degree of polarization, and microwave emission flux, as well as calculating the parameters of microwave sources. Each parameter is assigned its own value of the weight factor, and the sum of values is used to draw the conclusion about the flare occurrence probability in each active region and on the Sun in general.      

Effect of random nature of cosmic ray sources – Supernova remnants – on cosmic ray intensity fluctuations,anisotropy, and electron energy spectrum

The random nature of sources (the supernova remnants) leads to the fluctuations of cosmic ray intensity in space and time. We calculate the expected fluctuations in a flat-halo diffusion model for particles with energies from 0.1 to 10³ TeV. The data on energy spectra and anisotropy of very high energy protons, nuclei and electrons, and the astronomical data on supernova remnants, the potential sources of cosmic rays, are used to constrain the value of the cosmic-ray diffusion coefficient and its dependence on energy.     

乏信息材料布氏硬度测量误差的灰自助预报

乏信息材料布氏硬度测量误差的预报是硬度计量领域的新兴课题,有别于传统的统计学理论,综合灰色系统理论和自助法的理论知识,提出一种实现乏信息材料布氏硬度测量误差预报新方法.对小样本空间的材料布氏硬度测量数据中各误差源影响进行标定,计算各误差源对测量结果的误差传递系数,并对各误差源数据序列进行自助法抽样,通过灰自助融合建模获得误差源标定预测值;按照误差合成的方法实现乏信息材料布氏硬度测量误差的灰自助预报.通过具体的实例进行计算,所得的预报结果与采用标准硬度机所得测量结果一致,验证了乏信息材料布氏硬度测量误差灰自助预报新方法.     

银河宇宙线的起源和初级质子谱

本文采用无界银河系的爆发点源各向同性弥散的模型研究了初级质子的输运方程.用加速器实验得到的P-P碰撞截面的最新资料和一个合理的扩散系数, 得到了该方程的解, 进而讨论了该解的一些特点以及诸多类似点源对地球附近质子谱的可能贡献.该模型所预期的质子谱能较好地说明实验结果.      

Motion of the HXR sources in solar flares: Yohkoh images and statistics

Using the Yohkoh Hard X-Ray Telescope (HXT) data, we have examined motions of the hard X-ray (HXR) sources during 72 solar flares occurred from 1991 September to 2001 December. In these flares, we have found 198 intense sources that are presumably the chromospheric footpoints (FPs) of flare loops. The average velocity V and the velocity dispersion σ were determined by a linear regression for these sources. For 80% of them, the ratio of V to 3σ is larger than 1, strongly suggesting that the regular motions of the HXR sources dominate their chaotic motions.For 43 of 72 flares, coalignment of the HXT images with the photospheric magnetograms allows us to consider the HXR sources located on the both sides of the photospheric neutral line (NL) as the FP sources, and to distinguish between three main types of the FP motions. The type I is the motions of the HXR sources preferentially away from and nearly perpendicular to the NL. Less than 5% of the flares show this pattern of motion. In the type II, the sources move mainly along the NL in anti-parallel directions. Such motions have been found in 26% of flares. The type III involves a similar pattern of motions as the type II but all the HXR sources move in the same direction along the NL. Flares of this type constitute 30% of the flares. About 19% of flares can be described as a combination of these basic types. The remaining 20% of flares seem to be more complicated or less regular in the motion scale under consideration. An interpretation of results is suggested.     

HXMT卫星快视成像

硬X射线调制望远镜(Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope,HXMT)的最重要的工作模式是扫描观测,包括巡天扫描观测和小天区深度扫描观测. HXMT的标准成像需要被观测天区完整的二维扫描观测数据,而同时利用HXMT的观测数据中包含的空间调制信息和旋转调制信息,快视成像可以在只有一维扫描的情况下获得被观测天区的较粗略的流强分布,从而可以在卫星的视场扫过一块天区后很快给出被观测天区的尽可能多的信息.本文详细介绍了快视成像的过程,并通过模拟计算给出了巡天扫描观测快视成像的灵敏度、定位精度和角分辨能力的分布.快视成像能提高HXMT发现暂现源的灵敏度,及时发现并定位出现在HXMT视场中的高能爆发现象,减少较强的暂现源和爆发对标准成像干扰将是标准成像的重要补充.      

GMRT monitoring of Cyg X-1 and Cyg X-3

We present the results of low frequency radio observations of the X-ray binaries, Cygnus X-1 and Cygnus X-3, during different X-ray states. The low frequency observations were made for the first time for these sources at 0.61 and 1.28 GHz using the Giant Meter-wave Radio Telescope (GMRT) between 2003 and 2004. Both Cyg X-1 and Cyg X-3 are highly variable at low radio frequencies. We also compare our data with the observations at 15 GHz conducted by the Ryle telescope. Spectral turnover is seen for both the sources below 2 GHz. The data suggest that the change in the radio flux density in both the sources is correlated to the X-ray hardness ratio and follows a similar behavior pattern.     

On upward motions of coronal hard X-ray sources in solar flares

Coronal hard X-ray (HXR) sources were discovered by the Yohkoh HXT telescope in about two dozen limb flares: Impulsive and gradual ones. On the basis of HXT data, we investigated the spatial evolution of coronal sources. Slow ascending motions of sources are seen in several flares. In five events, it was possible to estimate the velocity of the upward motion with values between 10 and 30 km/s. We present these observational results and conclude that coronal source motions should be studied statistically using the RHESSI high-resolution HXR imaging data. We discuss the possibility that coronal HXR emission is generated as bremsstrahlung of the fast electrons accelerated in collapsing magnetic traps due to joint action of the Fermi-type first-order mechanism and betatron acceleration.     

Multiwavelength astronomy using ESIS

We present results on multi-frequency astronomy obtained using the European Space Information System, ESIS. ESIS is an ESA service designed to access, manipulate and combine archival data from a number of remote archives in the fields of Astronomy and Space Physics. The examples presented here include plots of radio-to-X-ray energy distribution of Active Galactic Nuclei, spectrograms of IUE/UV data, direct comparison of images from different experiments and overlay of catalogue sources on image data. The ESIS project is currently reaching the end of its pilot phase. Its services will be available to the general astronomical community in 1993.     

Blazar nuclei in radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1?

It has been suggested that some radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1 contain relativistic jets, on the basis of their flat-spectrum radio nuclei and studies on variability. We present preliminary results of an ongoing investigation of the X-ray and multiwavelength properties of 5 radio-loud NLS1 based on archival data from Swift and XMM-Newton. Some sources present interesting characteristics, very uncharacteristic for a radio-quiet narrow-line Seyfert 1, such as very hard X-ray spectra, and correlated optical and ultraviolet variability. However, none of the studied sources show conclusive evidence for relativistic jets. γ-Ray observations with Fermi are strongly recommended to definitely decide on the presence or not of relativistic jets.     

Evolution of flare ribbons and energyrelease

We examined the relation between the evolutions of the H flare ribbons and the released magnetic energiesat a solar flare which occurred on 2001 April 10. This is the first study to evaluate the released energy quantitatively, based on the magnetic reconnection model, and by using the data obtained with the multi wavelength observation. We measured the, photospheric magnetic field strengths and the separation speeds of the fronts of the H flare ribbon, and compared them the nonthermal behaviors observed in HXRs and microwaves. Those nonthermal radiation sources tell us when and where large energy releases occur. Then, by using the photospheric and chromospheric features, we estimated the released magnetic energy at the flare. The estimated energy release rates at the H kernels associated with the HXR sources are locally large enough to explain the difference between the spatial distribution the H kernels and the HXR sources. Their temporal evolution of the energy release rates also shows peaks corresponding to HXR bursts.     

Lightning on Venus

On the night side of Venus, the plasma wave instrument on the Pioneer-Venus Orbiter frequently detects strong and impulsive low-frequency noise bursts when the local magnetic field is strong and steady and when the field is oriented to point down to the ionosphere. The signals have characteristics of lightning whistlers and we have tried to identify the sources by tracing rays along the B-field from the Orbiter down toward the surface. An extensive data set strongly indicates a clustering of lightning sources near the Beta and Phoebe Regios, with additional significant clustering near the Atla Regio at the eastern edge of Aphrodite Terra. These results suggest that there are localized lightning sources at or near the planetary surface.     

冬季西北地区临近空间气象火箭探测数据分析

在获取冬季西北地区一次临近空间气象火箭探测数据后,将火箭探测温度、密度与MSIS00模式和TIMED/SABER卫星数据进行对比,并将火箭探测风场与HWM07模式和MERRA再分析资料进行对比,分析火箭探测温度误差组成,计算各项温度修正量。结果表明:火箭、卫星、MSIS00模式获取的温度和密度随高度整体变化趋势一致;相对于MSIS00模式,火箭和卫星实测数据能够反映出更多的变化细节,且二者在细节上具有较多一致性。火箭实测风场与MERRA的一致性较好,而与HWM07模式差异较大,在平流层中部火箭探测风场明显强于HWM07模式。相对于HWM07模式和MERRA,火箭探测风场能够体现更多细节,在22 km和45 km附近均探测到较强的风切变。在火箭探测温度的各项修正量中,气动加热、温度滞后、支撑结构热传导及测量电流焦耳效应带来的影响较大,该影响整体上随着高度降低而逐渐减小。分析表明,本次气象火箭获取的探测数据是有效可靠的,但在数据处理方法尤其是温度误差修正等方面还需不断迭代完善。      

NeQuick2 validation using multi-satellite and ground data

Global Navigation Satellite System’s (GNSS) positioning calculation is prone to ionospheric errors. Single frequency GNSS users receive ionospheric corrections through broadcast ionospheric models. Therefore, the accuracy of ionospheric models must be validated based on various geographic and geomagnetic conditions. In this work, an attempt is made to validate NeQuick2 electron density (Ne) using multiple sources of space-based and ground-based data at the Arabian Peninsula and for low solar activity conditions. These sources include space-based data from Swarm, DMSP and COSMIC-2 satellite constellations and ground-based data from GNSS receiver and the ionosonde. The period of this study is 1 year from October 2019 to September 2020. Analysis shows that the agreement between NeQuick2 and experimental Ne close to the peak density height depends on seasons and time of the day with the largest errors found in Autumn and during the daytime. NeQuick2 generally overestimates Ne during the daytime. During the early morning and evening hours, Ne estimates seem to be fairly accurate with slight underestimation in Winter and Spring. Estimation of slab thickness by NeQuick2 is found to be close to the values calculated using collocated ionosonde and GNSS receiver.     

Compact X-ray sources in nearby galaxy nuclei

We have found compact, near-nuclear X-ray sources in 21 (54%) of a complete sample of 39 nearby face-on spiral and elliptical galaxies with available ROSAT HRI data. ROSAT X-ray luminosities (0.2 – 2.4 keV) of these compact X-ray sources are ∼10³⁷ – 10⁴⁰ erg s⁻¹. The mean displacement between the location of the compact X-ray source and the optical photometric center of the galaxy is ∼390 pc. ASCA spectra of six of the 21 galaxies show the presence of a hard component with relatively steep (Γ ≈ 2.5) spectral slope. A multicolor disk blackbody plus power-law model fits the data from the spiral galaxies well, suggesting that the X-ray objects in these galaxies may be similar to a black hole candidate (BHC) in its soft (high) state. ASCA data from the elliptical galaxies indicate that hot (kT ≈ 0.7 keV) gas dominates the emission. The fact that the spectral slope of the spiral galaxy sources is steeper than in normal type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and that relatively low absorbing columns (N_H ≈ 10²¹ cm⁻²) were found to the power-law component indicates that these objects are somehow geometrically and/or physically different from AGNs in normal active galaxies. The X-ray sources in the spiral galaxies may be BHCs, low-luminosity AGNs, or possibly X-ray luminous supernovae. We estimate the black hole masses of the X-ray sources in the spiral galaxies (if they are BHCs or AGNs) to be ∼10²–10³ M_⊙. The X-ray sources in the elliptical galaxies may be BHCs, AGNs or young X-ray supernova also.     

Adjustable box-wing model for solar radiation pressure impacting GPS satellites

One of the major uncertainty sources affecting Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite orbits is the direct solar radiation pressure. In this paper a new model for the solar radiation pressure on GPS satellites is presented that is based on a box-wing satellite model, and assumes nominal attitude. The box-wing model is based on the physical interaction between solar radiation and satellite surfaces, and can be adjusted to fit the GPS tracking data.     

IRAS survey of asteroids

The Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) scanned the celestial sphere during 1983 through bandpasses centered at wavelengths of 12, 25, 60 and 100 microns. In addition to sources fixed on the sky, many moving objects, were also observed. This data set is the largest and least biased survey of asteroids and comets ever conducted. Included are main belt asteroids, Mars crossers, Earth approachers and Trojans. Measurements for the known asteroids have been reduced and organized into a number of data products which are available to researchers. The data for “new” asteroids are being processed. Output data products were specified at a series of IRAS Asteroid Workshops held in Pasadena over the past several years. In this paper we report on the current status of all of these data.     

Photospheric composition and structure in white dwarfs

One of the central mysteries of white dwarf studies has been the nature and abundance of trace elements in the atmospheres of these stars. It had been thought that the dominant trace element in otherwise pure hydrogen DA white dwarf atmospheres was helium. However, some spectroscopic and theoretical evidence suggested that, at least in some stars, heavier elements may be important. Prior to the launch of ROSAT the questions regarding the atmospheric composition of DA white dwarfs in general remained unresolved. The ROSAT mission has provided EUV and X-ray data for a large sample of DA white dwarfs with which we can study their photospheric composition and structure through the effect of trace opacity sources on the emergent fluxes. Contrary to expectations little (if any) helium is found and the main sources of opacity appear to be trace heavy elements. Support for these conclusions is found in recent EUV and far-UV spectra of several stars. However, photometric data do not allow us to determine the abundance of the individual elements and observations with the EUVE spectrometers will be essential for detailed composition measurements.