Searching for lost fragments in GEO

This paper attempts to search the lost fragments from the near-synchronous US TitanIIIC transtage explosion of February 21, 1992, known as the second major fragmentation of a TitanIIIC transtage. This breakup was accidentally observed by the Maui GEODSS sensor, and then a total of 23 objects were reported from the breakup, no orbital data on any fragments has been generated by the SSN. In order to evaluate the debris cloud orbital evolution, we demonstrate the actual US TitanIIIC transtage explosion by using breakup model and orbit propagator. The perturbing accelerations, considered in this analysis are the non-spherical part of the Earth's gravitational attraction, the gravitational attraction due to the Sun and Moon, and the solar radiation pressure effects. Finally, we will present a search strategy based on distribution of the right ascension of the ascending node about the catalogued objects and the debris particles from the US TitanIIIC transtage explosion.     

美国DMSP-F13卫星解体事件对空间碎片环境影响分析

2015 年2 月3 日,美国DMSP-F13 卫星发生爆炸解体,产生了百余块编目空间碎片。该卫星解体碎片主要分布在轨道高度600～1200 km 范围内,其中近50%的编目碎片在轨寿命将超过20 年,会对未来空间碎片环境构成长期影响。结合我国空间碎片环境工程模型SDEEM 对DMSP-F13 解体事件的分析结果显示,此次解体事件造成邻近轨道区域内空间碎片空间密度增加,对该区域航天器安全运行产生影响。     

Continuum Model for Space Debris Evolution with Account of Collisions and Orbital Breakups

The paper discusses the mathematical modeling of long-term orbital debris evolution taking into account mutual collisions of space debris particles of different sizes. Investigations and long-term forecasts of orbital debris environment evolution in low Earth orbits are essential for future space mission hazard evaluation and for adopting rational space policies and mitigation measures. The paper introduces a new approach to space debris evolution mathematical modeling based on continuum mechanics incorporating partial differential equations. This is an alternative to the traditional approaches of celestial mechanics incorporating ordinary differential equations to model fragments evolution. The continuum approach to orbital debris evolution modeling has essential advantages for describing the evolution of a large number of particles, because it replaces the traditional tracking of space objects by modeling the evolution of their density of distribution.     

Density and mass distributions of orbital debris

Area-to-mass ratios for orbital debris tracked by the U.S. Space Command were calculated from observed changes in apogee and perigee altitude due to atmospheric drag. The area-to-masses observed for the orbital debris were similar to those found for debris from laboratory breakups, and suggest that much of the debris is composed of crumpled thin plates or of insulation material with low effective density. Areas for the debris objects were derived from radar cross-section data. Object masses were calculated from the ratio of the RCS-derived area to the area-to-mass ratio. Analysis of the distributions of fragment masses from the breakups suggests that in many cases, only a portion of the initial object breaks up into small fragments.     

Modelling of the optical observations of a geosynchronous fragmentation event

A study of the evolution and optical detectability of a fragmentation debris cloud in geosynchronous orbit has been carried out. The 1998 NASA breakup model has been used to generate orbit data for 95 fragments larger than 10 cm size from a 1000 kg satellite. The orbital evolution of these fragments is studied using a precision numerical propagator, employing a high-fidelity force model. Although the fragments rapidly disperse throughout the geostationary arc, they remain localised in right ascension of ascending node and inclination, and are driven along a narrow inertial corridor by luni-solar perturbations. The ESA PROOF software is used to study the detectability of the fragments using a 1- and 0.5-m telescope design. The 1-m telescope can detect 82% of the fragments (down to 13 cm in size) whilst the 0.5-m telescope can detect 39% of the fragments (down to 30 cm size). Due to the large along-track spread of the fragments, a time limit of 1-month post-breakup can be established for a space surveillance system to catalogue the breakup fragments. After this time the angular separation is such that the fragments disperse into the background population, and are no longer distinguishable as originating from a common breakup event.     

Debris area distribution of spacecraft under hypervelocity impact

Cross-sectional area is an important parameter for spacecraft breakup debris as it is the directly measured data in space observation. It is significant for observing and analysing the spacecraft breakup event to accurately modelling the area distribution of the breakup debris. In this paper, experimental study has been performed on debris area distribution characteristics of spacecraft under hypervelocity impact. The tests are carried out at the ballistic ranges of CARDC. Aluminium projectiles are launched to normally impact the simulated spacecrafts at about 3.0 km/s. The simulated spacecrafts are made up of aluminium plates, filled with some simulated electronics boxes, each of which was installed with a circuit board. “Soft-catch” devices are used to recover the breakup fragments. The test results show that: 1) the relationship between the cross-sectional area and the characteristic length of debris, which can be obtained in the logarithmic coordinates by linear fitting, represents the debris shape characteristic in a certain extent; 2) the area-to-mass ratios of fragments show normal distributions in the logarithmic coordinates; 3) debris made of different materials can be distinguished by different peaks on the distribution curves; 4) the area-to-mass ratio distributions can be expressed by a linear superimposition of several normal functions which represent the main materials of the spacecraft.     

A space based radar on a micro-satellite for in-situ detection of small orbital debris

The increase in the number of satellites in the Near Earth Orbit is exponential. The consequent increase in pollution of the orbital environment is of growing concern to the international community. There are currently only two observation systems available for measurement of orbital debris. Ground based radar and telescopes can detect objects larger than about 7 cm. Passive space based systems provide an accurate statistical estimation of flux for debris smaller than about 0.1 mm in size. Consequently, there is no way of obtaining information about debris in the millimeter-size range. Considering that the relative speed between objects in space is commonly in the km/s range, millimeter sized debris carry enough energy to be deadly to astronauts or to totally destroy the functioning of any satellite. Then National space agencies have recommended launching orbital spacecraft carrying debris detection experiments for gaining a better understanding of small debris.CNES (the French Space Agency) is developing a new family of micro-satellites, that will make possible to put into orbit a totally new system of radar that could measure in-situ flux of debris. We present results of this system analysis, which would cumulate the advantages of both ground-based radar and in orbit passive experiments.The proposed method for detection is quite original and allows the radar to act like a band-pass filter with respect to the debris diameter. The optimum frequency is shown to be in the Ka-band. Two points are critical in the definition of the radar: the average power available and the false alarm probability in the detection criterion. Therefore, we present a special receiver chain in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. The estimate of the radial velocity through Doppler frequency measurement may be used to discriminate orbital debris from meteoroids. This system could be built today using an existing Continuous Wave amplifier. Several hundreds of objects per year could be detected yielding an accurate statistical estimation.The orbital debris radar would be a major contribution to our knowledge of millimeter sized debris. This experiment would contribute to making the current models more accurate at all inclinations. The micro-satellite concept would make the orbital debris radar mission cheap enough for considering a constellation of such satellites.     

卫星超高速撞击解体碎片特性的试验研究

为了研究超高速撞击下卫星解体碎片的分布特性,在弹道靶上开展了三次模拟卫星的超高速撞击试验。发射铝合金钝锥弹丸以3.2km/s~4.2km/s的速度撞击模拟卫星,对解体碎片进行回收、测量和统计分析,结果表明：碎片累积数量与碎片特征尺寸/特征质量在对数坐标系中基本呈直线关系,且碎片尺寸分布和质量分布在形式上和规律上具有高度相似性。通过数据拟合得到了碎片尺寸和质量分布的具体函数形式,分析了碎片质量分布与尺寸分布之间的内在关系。将试验结果与NASA标准解体模型进行了比较,讨论了两者的差别及其原因。
     

液体火箭爆炸碎片模型研究

对液体火箭爆炸碎片模型进行了研究。由当量原理和能量守恒建立了碎片初速模型。验证了美国航空航天局（NAsA）火箭箭体爆炸解体模型不适于火箭芯一级爆炸;修正了Mott模型,用于描述液体火箭爆炸碎片质量和数量的分布规律;分析了碎片速度衰减规律和杀伤标准。研究表明：建立的模型能描述液体火箭爆炸碎片特征,评估爆炸碎片的威胁半径。     

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. To better limit the growth of the future debris population, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to illustrate and quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. An effective removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.     

A Geosynchronous Orbit Search Strategy

Since more than 10 years there is evidence that small-size space debris is accumulating in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO), probably as the result of breakups. Two break-ups have been reported in GEO. The 1978 break-up of an EKRAN 2 satellite, SSN 10365, was identified in 1992, and in 1992 a Titan 3C Transtage, SSN 3432, break-up produced at least twenty observable pieces. Subsequently several nations performed optical surveys of the GEO region in the form of independent observation campaigns. Such surveys suffer from the fact that the field of view of optical telescopes is small compared with the total area covered by the GEO ring. As a consequence only a small volume of the orbital element-magnitude-space is covered by each individual survey. Results from these surveys are thus affected by observational biases and therefore difficult to compare. This paper describes the development of a common search strategy to overcome these limitations. The strategy optimizes the sampling for objects in orbits similar to the orbits of the known GEO population but does not exclude the detection of objects with other orbital planes. A properly designed common search strategy clearly eases the comparison of results from different groups and the extrapolation from the sparse (biased) samples to the entire GEO environment.     

航天器用氢镍蓄电池钝化技术研究

为了减缓蓄电池组爆炸产生的空间碎片,文章对常在航天器上应用的氢镍蓄电池的钝化技术进行了研究。首先分析了氢镍蓄电池的爆炸机理,然后针对氢镍蓄电池组提出了安全性设计方法;进行了过充电、过放电等蓄电池爆炸试验;研制了一台氢镍蓄电池钝化装置,进行了蓄电池钝化消能试验。     

USA-193 decay predictions using public domain trajectory data and assessment of the post-intercept orbital debris cloud

In early 2008, the need arose to predict the orbital decay of the American spacecraft USA-193, whose characteristics, function and orbit were classified information. With no orbit data and independent Italian tracking capability available, we turned our attention on the orbits determined by a worldwide network of about 20 visual satellite observers. The orbits of USA-193 obtained from their visual observations were therefore used as the sole source of orbit information. Contrary to our expectations, this exercise was extremely successful and we learned a lot in the process. The orbits provided by the visual observers were very accurate for such a low satellite (although the minimum and very stable level of solar activity helped considerably); however, data gaps of a few days were sometimes possible, due to unfavorable pass geometry or weather and light conditions. In any case, the orbital period and the semimajor axis were so accurate that it was possible for us to obtain very good decay fits using special perturbation software, including various atmospheric density models together with all the other relevant perturbing accelerations. We were therefore able to estimate accurate values of the ballistic parameter and the resulting decay and reentry predictions were extremely stable. Amateur optical observations and images of USA-193 had also led to a rough estimation of the shape and sizes of the satellite, revealing that the solar arrays had never been deployed. With this information, and taking into account our estimates of the ballistic parameter, we obtained reasonable and consistent values of the spacecraft mass. Based on previous reentry fragmentation analyses, we were then able to guess the expected USA-193 casualty area, casualty expectancy, debris ground footprint and probability of impact in Italy. Lastly, after the decision by the US Government to destroy the satellite, we independently predicted the interception time windows and the post-event ground tracks. Following the successful spacecraft breakup, we analyzed the evolution of the resulting debris cloud and assessed its (very limited) adverse impact on the circumterrestrial environment.     

Optical orbital debris spotter

The number of man-made debris objects orbiting the Earth, or orbital debris, is alarmingly increasing, resulting in the increased probability of degradation, damage, or destruction of operating spacecraft. In part, small objects (<10 cm) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are of concern because they are abundant and difficult to track or even to detect on a routine basis. Due to the increasing debris population it is reasonable to assume that improved capabilities for on-orbit damage attribution, in addition to increased capabilities to detect and track small objects are needed. Here we present a sensor concept to detect small debris with sizes between approximately 1.0 and 0.01 cm in the vicinity of a host spacecraft for near real time damage attribution and characterization of dense debris fields and potentially to provide additional data to existing debris models.     

L׳ADROIT – A spaceborne ultraviolet laser system for space debris clearing

Small (1–10 cm) debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) are extremely dangerous, because they spread the breakup cascade. Pulsed laser active debris removal using laser ablation jets on target is the most cost-effective way to re-enter the small debris. No other solutions address the whole problem of large (~100 cm, 1 t) as well as small debris. Physical removal of small debris (by nets, tethers and so on) is uneconomical because of the energy cost of matching orbits. In this paper, we present a completely new proposal relative to our earlier work. This new approach uses rapid, head-on interaction in 10–40 s rather than 4 minutes, using 20–40 kW bursts of 100 ps, 355 nm UV pulses from a 1.5 m diameter aperture on a space-based station in LEO. The station employs “heat-capacity” laser mode with low duty cycle to create an adaptable, robust, dual-mode system which can lower or raise large derelict objects into less dangerous orbits, as well as clear out the small debris in a 400-km thick LEO band. Time-average laser optical power is less than 15 kW. The combination of short pulses and UV wavelength gives lower required fluence on target as well as higher momentum coupling coefficient. An orbiting system can have short range because of high interaction rate deriving from its velocity through the debris field. This leads to much smaller mirrors and lower average power than the ground-based systems we have considered previously. Our system also permits strong defense of specific assets. Analysis gives an estimated cost less than $1 k each to re-enter most small debris in a few months, and about 280 k$ each to raise or lower 1-ton objects by 40 km. We believe it can do this for 2000 such large objects in about four years. Laser ablation is one of the few interactions in nature that propel a distant object without any significant reaction on the source.     

Biobjective planning of an active debris removal mission

The growth of the orbital debris population has been a concern to the international space community for several years. Recent studies have shown that the debris environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, defined as the region up to 2000 km altitude) has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase even if all future launches are suspended. As the orbits of these objects often overlap the trajectories of satellites, debris create a potential collision risk. However, several studies show that about 5 objects per year should be removed in order to keep the future LEO environment stable. In this article, we propose a biobjective time dependent traveling salesman problem (BiTDTSP) model for the problem of optimally removing debris and use a branch and bound approach to deal with it.     

Orbital evolution of the first upper stages used for the new European and Chinese navigation satellite systems

The solutions adopted for the disposal of the upper stages used to put in orbit the first satellites of the new European (Galileo) and Chinese (Beidou) navigation constellations were analyzed. The orbit evolution of the rocket bodies was modeled for 200 years, taking into account all relevant perturbations, and the chosen disposal options were evaluated in terms of their long-term consequences for the debris environment. The results obtained, when applicable, were also discussed in the context of the eccentricity instability problem, pointed out in previous studies. In addition, the long-term evolution of the fragments resulting from a Beidou rocket body breakup, and of simulated high area-to-mass ratio objects released in the disposal orbits of the first two Galileo upper stages, was investigated.Eight out of ten Beidou upper stages were found to have an orbital lifetime <25 years and the other two resulted in a dwell time of approximately 6 years below 2000 km. It was also found that the perigee heights of the two upper stages used to deploy the first Galileo test spacecraft will remain more than 169 km above the constellation nominal altitude, never crossing the existing or planned navigation systems. In spite of an inclination resonance possibly leading to the exponential growth of the eccentricity over several decades, the optimal choice of the disposal orbital elements was able to prevent such an outcome, by maintaining the orbit nearly circular. Therefore, the upper stage disposal strategies used so far for Beidou and Galileo have generally been quite successful in averting the long-term interference of such rocket bodies with the navigation constellations, provided that accidental breakups are prevented.     

无控航天器与空间碎片再入的工程预测方法研究现状

无控航天器、火箭末级以及空间碎片再入地球大气层后可能未烧尽,残存的小碎片高速撞击地面,对人类安全和生态系统构成极大威胁。提前预测其再入轨迹并采取预防措施能够有效降低地面风险。文章对无控航天器和空间碎片再入工程预测模型,包括航天器模型、动力学模型、气动热模型和烧蚀解体模型的研究现状进行跟踪与总结,也介绍了国内外有公开资料的工程应用软件,并讨论若干关键问题和进一步研究方向。     

Developing a Low-Velocity Collision Model Based on the Nasa Standard Breakup Model

We have conducted a series of low-velocity impact experiments to understand the dispersion properties of fragments newly created by low-velocity impacts possible in space, especially in geostationary Earth orbit. The test results are utilized to establish a mathematical prediction model to be used in debris generation and propagation codes. Since the expected collision velocity between catalogued objects in geostationary Earth orbit shows a peak at a few hundreds meters per second, these impact experiments were conducted at a velocity range lower than 300m/s. As a typical structure of satellites in geostationary Earth orbit, thin aluminum honeycomb sandwich panels with carbon fiber reinforced plastics face sheets were prepared, while the projectile was a stainless steel ball of 9mm diameter. The data collected through these impact experiments have been re-analyzed based on the method used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) standard breakup model 1998 revision. The results indicate that the NASA standard breakup model derived from hypervelocity impacts could be applied to low-velocity collision possible in geostationary Earth orbit with some modifications.     

Collision Risk Mitigation in Geostationary Orbit

The short- and long-term effects of spacecraft explosions, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbit altitude above the geostationary orbit (GEO), were analyzed in terms of their additional contribution to the debris flux in the GEO ring. The simulated debris clouds were propagated for 72yrs, taking into account all the relevant orbital perturbations.The results obtained show that 6–7 additional explosions in GEO would be sufficient, in the long term, to double the current collision risk with sizable objects in GEO. Unfortunately, even if spacecraft were to re-orbit between 300 and 500km above GEO, this would not significantly improve the situation. In fact, an altitude increase of at least 2000km would have to be adopted to reduce by one order of magnitude the long-term risk of collision among geostationary satellites and explosion fragments. The optimal debris mitigation strategy should be a compromise between the reliability and effectiveness of spacecraft end-of-life passivation, the re-orbit altitude and the acceptable debris background in the GEO ring. However, for as long as the re-orbit altitudes currently used are less than 500km above GEO, new spacecraft explosions must be avoided in order to preserve the geostationary environment over the long term.