Resonance in a coupled solar-climate model

The 11–year solar activity cycle is magnetic in origin and is responsible for small changes in solar luminosity and the modulation of the solar wind. The terrestrial climate exhibits much internal variability supporting oscillations with many frequencies. The direct effect of changing solar irradiance in driving climatic change is believed to be small, and amplification mechanisms are needed to enhance the role of solar variability. In this paper we demonstrate that resonance may play a crucial role in the dynamics of the climate system, by using the output from a nonlinear solar dynamo model as a weak input to a simplified climate model. The climate is modelled as oscillating about two fixed points (corresponding to a warm and cold state) with the weak chaotically modulated solar forcing on average pushing the solution towards the warm state. When a typical frequency of the input is similar to that of the chaotic climate system then a dramatic increase in the role of the solar forcing is apparent and complicated intermittent behaviour is observed. The nonlinear effects are subtle however, and forcing that on average pushes the solution towards the warm state may lead to increased intervals of oscillation about either state. Owing to the intermittent nature of the timeseries, analysis of the relevant timeseries is shown to be non-trivial.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Solar Influences on Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.     

Solar Variability and Climate Impact on Terrestrial Planets

Some possible factors of climate changes and of long term climate evolution are discussed with regard of the three terrestrial planets, Earth, Venus and Mars. Two positive feedback mechanisms involving liquid water, i.e., the albedo mechanism and the greenhouse effect of water vapour, are described. These feedback mechanisms respond to small external forcings, such as resulting from solar or astronomical constants variability, which might thus result in large influences on climatic changes on Earth. On Venus, reactions of the atmosphere with surface minerals play an important role in the climate system, but the involved time scales are much larger. On Mars, climate is changing through variations of the polar axis inclination over time scales of ～10⁵–10⁶ years. Growing evidence also exists that a major climatic change happened on Mars some 3.5 to 3.8 Gigayears ago, leading to the disappearance of liquid water on the planet surface by eliminating most of the CO₂ atmosphere greenhouse power. This change might be due to a large surge of the solar wind, or to atmospheric erosion by large bodies impacts. Indeed, except for their thermospheric temperature response, there is currently little evidence for an effect of long-term solar variability on the climate of Venus and Mars. This fact is possibly due to the absence of liquid water on these terrestrial planets.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

Long Term Climate Records from Polar Ice

One of the great challenges in climate research is to investigate the principal mechanisms that control global climatic changes and an effective way to learn more about it, is the reconstruction of past climate changes. The most important sources of information about such changes and the associated composition of the atmosphere are the two large ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica. Analysis of ice cores is the most powerful means we have to determine how climate has changed over the last few climatic cycles, and to relate this to changes in atmospheric composition, in particular to concentrations of the principal greenhouse gases – CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide).Transitions from cold ice age climates to warmer interstadials have always been accompanied by an increase of the atmospheric concentration of the three principal greenhouse gases. This increase has been, at least for CO₂, vital for the ending of glacial epochs. A highly simplified course of events for the past four transitions would then be as follows: first, changing orbital parameters initiated the end of the glacial epoch; second, an increase in greenhouse gases then amplified the weak orbital signal; third, in the second half of the transition, warming was further amplified by decreasing albedo, caused by melting of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere going parallel with a change of the ocean circulation.The isotopic records of Greenland ice cores show evidence for fast and drastic climatic changes during the last glacial epoch. Possible causes and mechanisms of such changes and their significance as global climatic events are discussed here. Ice core results also enable the reaction of the environment to past global changes to be investigated.It will also be discussed how reliable stable isotope records are as a local temperature proxy and how representative paleoclimatic results from Greenland and Antarctica are in relation to global climate.     

The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate

To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.     

Regional Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing: The Role of the Ocean

A coupled climate model is used to explore the regional response of the climate system to solar forcing, with emphasis on the role of the ocean. It is shown that both the transient and the equilibrium response of surface temperature to changes in total solar irradiation is smaller over ocean than over land because of the ocean’s large heat capacity and the feedback involving evaporation. Furthermore, the advection of temperature anomalies and changes in ocean currents have an impact on the timing and the geographical distribution of the response. Nevertheless, at regional scales, the response to the forcing is embedded within the large internal variability of the system making the detection and analysis of the forced response difficult. Furthermore, this forced response could imply both changes in the mean state of the system as well as in its variability.     

The Sun's Role in Long-Term Climate Change

Evidence suggests that changes of solar irradiance in recent centuries have provided a significant climate forcing and that the sun has been one of the principal causes of long-term climate change. During the past two decades the solar forcing has been much smaller than the climate forcing caused by increasing greenhouse gases. But it is incorrect to assume that the sun necessarily will be an insignificant player in climate change of the 21st century. Indeed, I argue that moderate success in curtailing the growth of anthropogenic climate forcings could leave the sun playing a pivotal role in future climate change.     

The impact of solar forcing on the variability in a coupled climate model

The impact of variations in solar irradiance on the variability of climate is still a topic of debate. Herein we assess the response of a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) of intermediate complexity to an estimate of the solar variability since 1700 and to a series of idealized sinusoidal solar forcings. On the continental to global scale and averaged over periods longer than 30 years, the solar-induced variability dominates internal variability in the annual global mean surface air temperature. Locally and on the regional scale, the internal variability dominates. The dominant patterns of natural variability and explained variance are not affected by a variable solar forcing, the spectra however are sensitive. The control run shows a preferred decadal time scale of 18 year in a sea surface temperature mode associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The preferred decadal time scale disappears for a variable solar forcing. This is caused by small changes in oceanic circulation resulting in subsurface oceanic modes with modified structure and time scale.     

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Our current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on those due to human activity. The paper discusses the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty. The effects of increases in the so-called well-mixed greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, appear to be the dominant mechanism. However, there are considerable uncertainties in our estimates of many other forcing mechanisms; those associated with the so-called indirect aerosol forcing (whereby changes in aerosols can impact on cloud properties) may be the most serious, as its climatic effect may be of a similar size as, but opposite sign to, that due to carbon dioxide. The possible role of volcanic eruptions as a natural climate change mechanism is also highlighted.     

Evidence for a Two-Stage Acceleration Process in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events

Using high-resolution mass spectrometers on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we surveyed the event-averaged ∼0.1–60 MeV/nuc heavy ion elemental composition in 64 large solar energetic particle (LSEP) events of cycle 23. Our results show the following: (1) The Fe/O ratio decreases with increasing energy up to ∼10 MeV/nuc in ∼92% of the events and up to ∼60 MeV/nuc in ∼64% of the events. (2) The rare isotope ³He is greatly enhanced over the corona or the solar wind values in 46% of the events. (3) The heavy ion abundances are not systematically organized by the ion’s M/Q ratio when compared with the solar wind values. (4) Heavy ion abundances from C–Fe exhibit systematic M/Q-dependent enhancements that are remarkably similar to those seen in ³He-rich SEP events and CME-driven interplanetary (IP) shock events. Taken together, these results confirm the role of shocks in energizing particles up to ∼60 MeV/nuc in the majority of large SEP events of cycle 23, but also show that the seed population is not dominated by ions originating from the ambient corona or the thermal solar wind, as previously believed. Rather, it appears that the source material for CME-associated large SEP events originates predominantly from a suprathermal population with a heavy ion enrichment pattern that is organized according to the ion’s mass-per-charge ratio. These new results indicate that current LSEP models must include the routine production of this dynamic suprathermal seed population as a critical pre-cursor to the CME shock acceleration process.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

An Update on Ultra-Heavy Elements in Solar Energetic Particles above 10 MeV/Nucleon

Measurements below several MeV/nucleon from Wind/LEMT and ACE/ULEIS show that elements heavier than Zn (Z=30) can be enhanced by factors of ∼100 to 1000, depending on species, in ³He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Using the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) on ACE we find that even large SEP (LSEP) shock-accelerated events at energies from ∼10 to >100 MeV/nucleon are often very iron rich and might contain admixtures of flare seed material. Studies of ultra-heavy (UH) SEPs (with Z>30) above 10 MeV/nucleon can be used to test models of acceleration and abundance enhancements in both LSEP and ³He-rich events. We find that the long-term average composition for elements from Z=30 to 40 is similar to standard solar system values, but there is considerable event-to-event variability. Although most of the UH fluence arrives during LSEP events, UH abundances are relatively more enhanced in ³He-rich events, with the (34<Z<40)/O ratio on average more than 50 times higher in ³He-rich events than in LSEP events. At energies >10 MeV/nucleon, the most extreme event in terms of UH composition detected so far took place on 23 July 2004 and had a (34<Z<40)/O enhancement of ∼250–300 times the standard solar value.     

Co2 and Climate: a Geologist's View

Climate is discussed as an integral part of System Earth, determined by a complex interplay of numerous geological, biological and solar processes. The historical and geological record of changing climate and atmospheric CO₂ pressure does not support the current popular vision that this greenhouse gas is the dominant climate controlling agent. When empirically ante post tested against past global climate changes, the forecasts of the climate models mainly based on forcing by atmospheric CO₂ are not borne out. On the other hand, recent studies show that solar variability rather than changing CO₂ pressure is an important, probably the dominant climate forcing factor.     

Ionization processes in the heliosphere — Rates and methods of their determination

The rates of the most important ionization processes acting in interplanetary space on interstellar H, He, C, O, Ne and Ar atoms are critically reviewed in the paper. Their long-term modulations in the period 1974 – 1994 are reexamined using updated information on relevant cross-sections as well as direct or indirect data on variations of the solar wind/solar EUV fluxes based on IMP 8 measurements and monitoring of the solar 10.7 cm radio emission. It is shown that solar cycle related variations are pronounced (factor of 3 between maximum and minimum) especially for species such as He, Ne, C for which photoionization is the dominant loss process. Species sensitive primarily to the charge-exchange (as H) show only moderate fluctuations 20% around average. It is also demonstrated that new techniques that make use of simultaneous observations of neutral He atoms on direct and indirect orbits, or simultaneous measurements of He⁺ and He⁺⁺ pickup ions and solar wind particles can be useful tools for narrowing the uncertainties of the He photoionization rate caused by insufficient knowledge of the solar EUV flux and its variations.     

The Sun as an inconstant star

It has been thought for a long time that the luminosity of the Sun has remained constant since the Sun evolved into the Main Sequence stage almost 4.5 billion yr ago. However, many of recent data obtained from the isotopic analyses in the tree rings, meteoritic and lunar samples have shown that the luminosity and the activity of the Sun must have been varied for such long years. It seems that the one of the most important discoveries on the variability of the Sun is that of the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), during which the solar activity had been extremely weak so that no sunspot had been observed for almost seventy years. Furthermore, this minimum was almost coincident with the severest period of the Little Ice Age having covered the Earth from the early 14th to the middle 19th centuries. These results suggest a possible connection between the long-term variation of the Earth's climate and that of the solar activity.The Sun shines as emitting continuously the nuclear energy as light quanta. As well known, this energy is almost constantly being released from the thermonuclear reactions taking place in the central core of the Sun. Whenever the efficiency of these reactions changes due to some mechanisms to occur inside the Sun, the light emissivity from the Sun, namely, the Sun's luminosity, would change accordingly. Thus some change in the physical processes inside the Sun may always induce various kinds of variability as related to the rearrangement of the internal structure of the Sun. As a result of this kind of change, the Earth's climatic condition also seems to be critically influenced in association with the variation of the Sun's luminosity. Since it seems that the mean level of the solar activity for a long time, say, 100 yr, is dependent on the long-term change in the physical processes inside the Sun as related to the variation of the solar luminosity, the Earth's climatic condition may be necessarily changeable as dependent on the long-term variation of the solar activity. Some evidence is here shown by reviewing the historical records on the climatic change.A brief account is finally given on the possible origin of the inconstancy in the solar luminosity and activity.     

10Be in Ice Cores and 14C in Tree Rings: Separation of Production and Climate Effects

Cosmogenic radionuclides are more and more used in solar activity reconstructions. However, the cosmogenic radionuclide signal also contains a climate component. It is therefore crucial to eliminate the climate information to allow a better interpretation of the reconstructed solar activity indices. In this paper the method of principal components is applied to ¹⁰Be data from two ice cores from opposite hemispheres as well as to ¹⁴C data from tree rings. The analysis shows that these records are dominated by a common signal which explains about 80% of the variance on multi decadal to multi millennial time scales, reflecting their common production rate. The second and third components are significantly different for ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be. They are interpreted as system effects introduced by the transport of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C from the atmosphere where they are produced to the respective natural archives where they are stored. Principal component analysis improves significantly extraction of the production signal from the cosmogenic isotope data series, which is more appropriate for astrophysical and terrestrial studies.     

A Comparative Study of the Influence of the Active Young Sun on the Early Atmospheres of Earth, Venus, and Mars

Because the solar radiation and particle environment plays a major role in all atmospheric processes such as ionization, dissociation, heating of the upper atmospheres, and thermal and non-thermal atmospheric loss processes, the long-time evolution of planetary atmospheres and their water inventories can only be understood within the context of the evolving Sun. We compare the effect of solar induced X-ray and EUV (XUV) heating on the upper atmospheres of Earth, Venus and Mars since the time when the Sun arrived at the Zero-Age-Main-Sequence (ZAMS) about 4.6 Gyr ago. We apply a diffusive-gravitational equilibrium and thermal balance model for studying heating of the early thermospheres by photodissociation and ionization processes, due to exothermic chemical reactions and cooling by IR-radiating molecules like CO₂, NO, OH, etc. Our model simulations result in extended thermospheres for early Earth, Venus and Mars. The exospheric temperatures obtained for all the three planets during this time period lead to diffusion-limited hydrodynamic escape of atomic hydrogen and high Jeans’ escape rates for heavier species like H₂, He, C, N, O, etc. The duration of this blow-off phase for atomic hydrogen depends essentially on the mixing ratios of CO₂, N₂ and H₂O in the atmospheres and could last from ∼100 to several hundred million years. Furthermore, we study the efficiency of various non-thermal atmospheric loss processes on Venus and Mars and investigate the possible protecting effect of the early martian magnetosphere against solar wind induced ion pick up erosion. We find that the early martian magnetic field could decrease the ion-related non-thermal escape rates by a great amount. It is possible that non-magnetized early Mars could have lost its whole atmosphere due to the combined effect of its extended upper atmosphere and a dense solar wind plasma flow of the young Sun during about 200 Myr after the Sun arrived at the ZAMS. Depending on the solar wind parameters, our model simulations for early Venus show that ion pick up by strong solar wind from a non-magnetized planet could erode up to an equivalent amount of ∼250 bar of O⁺ ions during the first several hundred million years. This accumulated loss corresponds to an equivalent mass of ∼1 terrestrial ocean (TO (1 TO ∼1.39×10²⁴ g or expressed as partial pressure, about 265 bar, which corresponds to ∼2900 m average depth)). Finally, we discuss and compare our findings with the results of preceding studies.