Century scale solar variability imprinted in the 44Ti activity in meteorites.

The measurements of gamma-activity of the 44Ti (T1/2 = 66.6 years) produced by spallation reaction of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) in Alfianello, Olivenza, Rio Negro, Dhajala and Torino meteorites, which fell in the time interval 1883 AD (Alfianello)-1988 AD (Torino), show a century scale modulation, connected to long-term solar-wind flux variations in the interplanetary space. The variation of the 44Ti activity with the time of fall of meteorites is qualitatively consistent with the Gleissberg solar cycle, but the amplitude is three-four times higher than expected (about 5%) for GCR flux modulated by solar activity, as determined solely by the sunspot number. The cosmogenic 44Ti is a suitable radioisotope for this investigation, but its activity in meteorites is very low. We performed these measurements in the underground low level counting station of Monte dei Cappuccini in Torino, by means of a big hyperpure Ge crystal (approximately 2 kg) in selective coincidence with a heavy NaI (T1) scintillation detector (approximately 28 kg). This system allows a reliable and non destructive measurement of 44Ti (44Sc) in meteorites of 200-1200 g in weight. The background is about 1 count per day in the gamma-peak at 1157 keV of 44Sc in equilibrium with its parent 44Ti. The high stability of the performance allows long-lasting runs (approximately 10(7) s) in order to attain results with a standard deviation up to about 10%.     

Mid 19th century minimum of galactic cosmic ray flux inferred from Ti in Allegan meteorite

Measurements of ⁴⁴Ti activity in meteorites show that the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been declining in the interplanetary space during the past three centuries and has a component of cyclic variation, with periodicity of about 87 years [Taricco, C., Bhandari, N., Cane, D., et al. Galactic cosmic ray flux decline and periodicities in the interplanetary space during the last 3 centuries revealed by ⁴⁴Ti in meteorites. J. Geophys. Res. 111, A08102, 2006.]. In order to verify these results, we have measured ⁴⁴Ti activity in Allegan meteorite which fell in 1899 and in some other meteorites with better precision. The measurements confirm low cosmic ray flux and consequently high solar activity near the middle of 19th century.     

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic for the period 1874–1995 (Mean Sea Level Pressure archive, Climatic Research Unit, UK) were compared with indices of solar and geomagnetic activity and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations characterized by the concentration of the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be. A periodicity of ∼80 yrs close to the Gleissberg cycle in the intensity of the 11-yr solar cycles was found in the pressure variations at middle latitudes (45–65°N) in the cold half of the year, which is the period of intensive cyclogenesis. It was shown that a long-term increase of pressure in this region coincided with a secular rise of solar/geomagnetic activity which was accompanied by a decrease in GCR intensity. Long-term decreases of pressure were observed during the periods of low (or decreasing) intensities of sunspot cycles. Similar features were also found in the spectral characteristics of geomagnetic activity indices, GCR intensity and pressure at middle latitudes on the quasi-decadal time scale. Effects of solar activity/GCR variations on the surface pressure seem to be more pronounced in the North Atlantic zone of intensive cyclogenesis (near the eastern coasts of North America). The results obtained suggest possible links between long-term variations in cyclonic activity at extratropical latitudes of the North Atlantic and solar activity/GCR variations on the time scales from ∼10 to ∼100 yrs.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23

We present a study of the galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23. We use the monthly and the annual mean hourly, pressure corrected, data from neutron monitors of the global network (monthly rate is calculated as the average of the hourly pressure corrected values). We draw attention to an asymmetry in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery during odd and even cycles for the monthly mean hourly rate data. For over half a century of observations, we find that the recovery for the odd cycles is to a higher level than for the even cycles. Qualitatively the effect is ascribed to charged particle drifts in inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field. Even so it has not been possible to arrive at a quantitative, self-consistent, explanation in terms of drifts at higher and lower GCR rigidities. We also study the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of 11-year modulation over a wide range (1–200 GV) of GCR spectrum; it is a power law in rigidity with an exponent −1.22. We discuss the implication of these findings on quasi-linear diffusion theories of modulation. We reflect on GCR recovery pattern for 2006–2009.     

Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

基于ACE飞船观测的银河宇宙线与太阳风变化的统计研究

基于ACE飞船的资料,通过时序迭加方法统计分析了最近两个太阳活动极小年时期（2007.0-2009.0和2016.5-2019.0年）的宇宙线计数与太阳风参数的关系.结果表明,宇宙线的计数受太阳风共转流相互作用区的强烈影响,宇宙线计数变化与快慢太阳风流界面的位置密切相关,例如流界面的穿越通常伴随着宇宙线计数的下降.分析表明,第一时段的具有“雪犁”效应的宇宙线计数下降对应于流界面附近的扩散系数急剧下降,而第二时段的非“雪犁”效应的计数下降可能是由穿越流界面后的扩散系数增大引起的.日球层电流片也与宇宙线计数变化存在一定的相关性,宇宙线粒子在日球层电流片附近存在一定程度的堆积.太阳风对宇宙线的作用机制表明,宇宙线的漂移和扩散效应决定了其在1AU附近的分布变化.      

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12–24

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf’s numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946–1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44?years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44?years.     

Solar modulation and nuclear fragmentation effects in galactic cosmic ray transport through shielding.

Crews of manned interplanetary missions may accumulate significant radiation exposures from the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment in space. Estimates of how these dose levels are affected by the assumed temporal and spatial variations in the composition of the GCR environment, and by the effects of the spacecraft and body self-shielding on the transported radiation fields are presented. In this work, the physical processes through which shielding alters the transported radiation fields are described. We then present estimates of the effects on model calculations of (1) nuclear fragmentation model uncertainties, (2) solar modulation, (3) variations between solar cycles, and (4) proposed changes to the quality factors which relate dose equivalent to absorbed dose.     

Estimation of Galactic Cosmic Ray exposure inside and outside the Earth’s magnetosphere during the recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24

The evidently low solar activity observed between solar cycles 23 and 24 during the years 2008–2010 led to a substantial increase in the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity in comparison with preceding solar minima. As the GCRs consist of highly-ionizing charged particles having the potential to cause biological damage, they are a subject of concern for manned missions to space. With the enhanced particle fluxes observed between 2008 and 2010, it is reasonable to assume that the radiation exposure from GCR must have also increased to unusually high levels. In this paper, the GCR exposure outside and inside the Earth’s magnetosphere is numerically calculated for time periods starting from 1970 to the end of 2011 in order to investigate the increase in dose levels during the years 2008–2010 in comparison with the last three solar minima. The dose rates were calculated in a water sphere, used as a surrogate for the human body, either unshielded or surrounded by aluminium shielding of 0.3, 10 or 40 g/cm².     

Mean energy of response to galactic cosmic ray spectrum: IMP 8 and Climax neutron monitor

Solar modulations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity contain a wealth of information about their transport in the heliosphere. To extract this information from the data one studies the dependence of the observed modulations on the mean energy of response of detectors providing data for the analyses. There is a great deal of confusion about the detector energy response to GCR spectrum in the literature. We present a preliminary report on the computations of the mean energy of response for the Climax neutron monitor (CL/NM) and IMP 8 cosmic ray nuclear composition instrument to GCR protons for 1973–1998, covering the solar cycles 21 and 22. We find that for penetrating proton channel on IMP 8 the mean energy changes by a factor of over two whereas for the neutron monitor the change is only 21%. However, the corresponding change for the computed modulation function is a factor of about 3.5.     

Long-term modulation of Galactic Cosmic Radiation and its model for space exploration.

As the human exploration of space has received new attention in the United States, studies find that exposure to space radiation could adversely impact the mission design. Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR), with its very wide range of charges and energies, is particularly important for a mission to Mars, because it imposes a stiff mass penalty for spacecraft shielding. Dose equivalent versus shielding thickness calculations, show a rapid initial drop in exposure with thickness, but an asymptotic behavior at a higher shielding thickness. Uncertainties in the radiobiology are largely unknown. For a fixed radiation risk, this leads to large uncertain ties in shielding thickness for small uncertainties in estimated dose. In this paper we investigate the application of steady-state, spherically-symmetric diffusion-convection theory of solar modulation to individual measurements of differential energy spectra from 1954 to 1989 in order to estimate the diffusion coefficient, kappa (r,t), as a function of time. We have correlated the diffusion coefficient to the Climax neutron monitor rates and show that, if the diffusion coefficient can be separated into independent functions of space and time: kappa (-r,t)=K(t)kappa 0 beta P kappa 1(r), where beta is the particle velocity and P the rigidity, then (i) The time dependent quantity 1/K(t), which is proportional to the deceleration potential, phi(r,t), is linearly related to the Climax neutron monitor counting rate. (ii) The coefficients obtained from hydrogen or helium intensity measurements are the same. (iii) There are different correlation functions for odd and even solar cycles. (iv) The correlation function for the Climax neutron monitor counting rate for given time, t, can be used to estimate mean deceleration parameter phi(t) to within +/- 15% with 90% confidence. We have shown that kappa(r,t) determined from hydrogen and/or helium data, can be used to fit the oxygen and iron differential energy spectra with a root mean square error of about +/- 10%, and essentially independent of the particle charge or energy. We have also examined the ion chamber and 14C measurements which allow the analysis to be extended from the year 1906 to 1990. Using this model we have defined reference GCR spectra at solar minimum and solar maximum. These can be used for space exploration studies and provide a quantitative estimate of the error in dose due to changes in GCR intensities.     

Radial and latitudinal gradients of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

Our understanding of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation has advanced greatly in the last three decades. However, we still need an appropriate knowledge of the GCR intensity gradient. Numerical simulations of the transport particle equation allow interpretation of cosmic ray intensities in the heliosphere. We use the numerical solution of the GCR transport equation during solar maximum epoch to compute the radial and latitudinal gradients. Our analysis indicates that adiabatic energy loss plays an important role in the radial distribution of GCR in the inner heliosphere, while in the outer region the diffusion and convection are the relevant processes. The latitudinal gradient is small.     

Regional and temporal variability of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

In this work we studied the spatial and temporal structure of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation as well as possible reasons for the peculiarities of this structure. The study revealed a strong latitudinal and regional dependence of SA/GCR effects on pressure variations in the lower troposphere which seems to be determined by specific features of baric systems formed in different regions. The temporal structure of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere circulation at high and middle latitudes is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity which is apparently due to the epochs of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is suggested that a possible mechanism of long-term effects of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the troposphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the polar vortex in the stratosphere of high latitudes, as well as planetary frontal zones.     

27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy in the minimum of the 23rd solar activity cycle

We study the 27-day variations of the solar wind velocity, galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity and anisotropy in the last minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0). The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy (A27A) in the current minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0) is lesser than in previous positive polarity period as it is expected from the drift theory. So, polarity dependence rule for the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy is fully kept. It is a universal principle for the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy. At the same time, the average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (A27I) remains at the same level as for previous minimum epoch 1995–1997 (A > 0) showing by the same token an violation of its polarity dependence rule established earlier. We assume that this phenomenon could be generally related with the well established 27-day variation of the solar wind velocity being in anti-correlation with the similar changes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. Generally, a character of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of spatial large-scale structure of the solar wind velocity (SWV) established in the recent minimum epoch, preferentially pronounces in the behavior of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity than anisotropy. The formation of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy preferentially takes place in a restricted disk like local vicinity in the helioequatorial region, whilst the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is formed in the global three dimensional vicinity of the heliosphere.     

Sunspot numbers,interplanetary magnetic field,and cosmic ray intensity at earth: Nexus for the twentieth century

The pivotal role played by the interplanetary magnetic field (B) in modulating galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the heliosphere is described. We show that the inverse correlation observed by Forbush (1958) between GCRs and sunspot numbers (SSNs) is reflected in high correlation between SSNs and B (cc = 0.94). The SSN data are available since 1700 and the derived B data since 1835. The paleo-cosmic ray data are available for several millennia in the form of ¹⁰Be radionuclide sequestered in polar ice. The data of the ion chambers (ICs) at the Cheltenham–Fredericksburg–Yakutsk (CFY) sites are combined to create a data string for 1937–1988. In turn, these data are used to extend the measurements of the low energy GCR ions (>0.1 GeV) at balloon altitudes at high latitudes in Russia to 1937. These data are then correlated to B and the fit parameters are used to extend the low energy ion data to 1900, creating the instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century. The derived GCR time series is compared to ¹⁰Be measured at two sites in Greenland, namely Dye 3 and NGRIP for 1900–2000 to check the internal consistency of datasets for the long-term trend. We find that the annual mean rate (%) for 1965 at NGRIP is an outlier. We replace it with the mean of 1964 and 1965 rates and construct a new re-normalized time series at NGIP, improving the agreement with the derived instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century as well. This should encourage its use by heliophysics community for varied applications.     

Empirical model of cosmic ray spectrum in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during 11-year solar cycle

The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are the main ionization source at altitude of ∼3–35 km in the atmosphere. For high latitude anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component has also a significant influence on the atmospheric ionization. We propose an empirical model for differential spectra D(E) of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during solar cycle. In the model data are used which cover three solar cycles: 20, 22 and 23. The LEAP87, IMAX92, CAPRICE94, AMS98 and BESS experimental spectra for protons and alpha particles are fitted to the proposed empirical model. The modulated GCR differential spectra are compared with force-field approximation to the one-dimensional transport equation and with solutions of two-dimensional cosmic ray transport equation. For experimental spectra, the calculation of the model parameters is performed by Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, applied to the special case of least squares. Algorithm that combines the rapid local convergence of Newton–Raphson method with globally convergent method for non-linear systems of equations is applied for theoretically obtained differential spectra. The described programmes are realized in algorithmic language C++. The proposed model gives practical possibility for investigation of experimental data from measurements of galactic cosmic rays and their anomalous component.     

Evaluation of a combined electrostatic and magnetostatic configuration for active space-radiation shielding

Developing successful and optimal solutions to mitigating the hazards of severe space radiation in deep space long duration missions is critical for the success of deep-space explorations. A recent report (Tripathi et al., 2008) had explored the feasibility of using electrostatic shielding. Here, we continue to extend the electrostatic shielding strategy and examine a hybrid configuration that utilizes both electrostatic and magnetostatic fields. The main advantages of this system are shown to be: (i) a much better shielding and repulsion of incident ions from both solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), (ii) reductions in the power requirement for re-charging the electrostatic sub-system, and (iii) low requirements of the magnetic fields that are well below the thresholds set for health and safety for long-term exposures. Furthermore, our results show transmission levels reduced to levels as low as 30% for energies around 1000 MeV, and near total elimination of SPE radiation by these hybrid configurations. It is also shown that the power needed to replenish the electrostatic charges due to particle hits from the GCR and SPE radiation is minimal.     

Modelling of galactic Carbon in an asymmetrical heliosphere: Effects of asymmetrical modulation conditions

Observations of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that in addition to a possible global asymmetry in the north–south dimensions (meridional plane) of the heliosphere, it is also possible that different modulation (turbulence) conditions could exist between the two hemispheres of the heliosphere. We focus on illustrating the effects on GCR Carbon of asymmetrical modulation conditions combined with a heliosheath thickness that has a significant dependence on heliolatitude. To reflect different modulation conditions between the two heliospheric hemispheres in our numerical model, the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion off the ecliptic plane is assumed to differ from heliographic pole to pole. The computed radial GCR intensities at polar angles of 55° (approximating the Voyager 1 direction) and 125° (approximating the Voyager 2 direction) are compared at different energies and for both particle drift cycles. This is done in the context of illustrating how different values of the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion between the two hemispheres contribute to causing differences in radial intensities during solar minimum and moderate maximum conditions. We find that in the A > 0 cycle these differences between 55° and 125° change both quantitatively and qualitatively for the assumed asymmetrical modulation condition as reflected by polar diffusion, while in the A < 0 cycle, minute quantitative differences are obtained. However, when both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion have significant latitude dependences, major differences in radial intensities between the two polar angles are obtained in both polarity cycles. Furthermore, significant differences in radial intensity gradients obtained in the heliosheath at lower energies may suggest that the solar wind turbulence at and beyond the solar wind termination shock must have a larger latitudinal dependence.     

On the validity of the aluminum equivalent approximation in space radiation shielding applications

The origin of the aluminum equivalent shield approximation in space radiation analysis can be traced back to its roots in the early years of the NASA space programs (Mercury, Gemini and Apollo) wherein the primary radiobiological concern was the intense sources of ionizing radiation causing short term effects which was thought to jeopardize the safety of the crew and hence the mission. Herein, it is shown that the aluminum equivalent shield approximation, although reasonably well suited for that time period and to the application for which it was developed, is of questionable usefulness to the radiobiological concerns of routine space operations of the 21st century which will include long stays onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and perhaps the moon. This is especially true for a risk based protection system, as appears imminent for deep space exploration where the long-term effects of Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) exposure is of primary concern. The present analysis demonstrates that sufficiently large errors in the interior particle environment of a spacecraft result from the use of the aluminum equivalent approximation, and such approximations should be avoided in future astronaut risk estimates. In this study, the aluminum equivalent approximation is evaluated as a means for estimating the particle environment within a spacecraft structure induced by the GCR radiation field. For comparison, the two extremes of the GCR environment, the 1977 solar minimum and the 2001 solar maximum, are considered. These environments are coupled to the Langley Research Center (LaRC) deterministic ionized particle transport code High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport (HZETRN), which propagates the GCR spectra for elements with charges (Z) in the range 1 ? Z ? 28 (H–Ni) and secondary neutrons through selected target materials. The coupling of the GCR extremes to HZETRN allows for the examination of the induced environment within the interior of an idealized spacecraft as approximated by a spherical shell shield, and the effects of the aluminum equivalent approximation for a good polymeric shield material such as generic polyethylene (PE). The shield thickness is represented by a 25 g/cm² spherical shell. Although, one could imagine the progression to greater thickness, the current range will be sufficient to evaluate the qualitative usefulness of the aluminum equivalent approximation. Upon establishing the inaccuracies of the aluminum equivalent approximation through numerical simulations of the GCR radiation field attenuation for PE and aluminum equivalent PE spherical shells, we further present results for a limited set of commercially available, hydrogen rich, multifunctional polymeric constituents to assess the effect of the aluminum equivalent approximation on their radiation attenuation response as compared to the generic PE.