Game theory and the law and policy of outer space

Cooperation is a major theme of international space law but the law and history also recognize the existence of competition and conflict. What are the trend lines in terms of promoting collective goods, commercialization and new military uses of space? An overview of selected major laws and policies, as they relate to cooperation, competition and conflict, combined with a theoretical examination of game theory (zero-sum and non-zero sum games), will enable us to obtain an overall understanding of the space age and the choices that space lawyers and policy makers face in the future.     

China''s space policy: review and prospects

This article reviews the current status of the Chinese space programme, covering its military origins, launchers, applications satellites, manned spaceflight and exploration. It examines the growing commercialization of China's space activities and how far this is likely to be successful, especially in the light of MTCR constraints and other legal regulations. It is nonetheless concluded that commercialization, along with joint ventures with foreign companies, has been crucial to the development of China's space programme. However, the country still lacks the resources to become a first-rank space power.     

Korea''s space development programme: Policy and law

Korea now has a rapidly expanding space programme with exploration aspirations. The government is giving priority to the aerospace industry and, to put it on a better footing, recently enacted a New Space Exploitation Promotion Act. The early history and current and future development of Korea's space activities are briefly described in advance of a comprehensive presentation of the contents of the Act, including launch licensing, liability, registration of space objects, use of satellite information, astronaut rescue, third party liability insurance and establishment of institutions and plans to assist the Korean space effort. A call is made for Asian countries to unite and further their space development through a regional space agency.     

Outer space exploitability: International law and developing nations

This article outlines the principles upon which international space law is based. Space law has been successful so far in benefiting the developing countries without hampering the spacefaring nations. The principal treaty provisions that are of special interest to developing nations are discussed, and issues associated with remote sensing, communications and environmental harms are examined in detail. Since 1967 there has been a sharp change in the focus of legal concern towards ‘taking into account the particular needs of developing countries’, a principle that will be central to arrangements for the equitable sharing of the benefits of exploiting the space environment and its natural resources.     

Administrative reforms and the policy logics of Japanese space policy

The Japanese administrative reform which took place in recent years integrated NASDA and ISAS to create a larger space agency. Why was such an agency called for? What was the purpose behind the administrative reform? This article examines the motivations, objectives and responses to the reform process by using policy logic and institutional analysis to examine the evolution of the Japanese space programme. It argues that the reform aimed to rationalize the national administrative system and salvage the government from financial crisis. Thus, the reform was not designed to strengthen space activities in Japan, and as a result, Japanese space policy making is confused.     

Estonian space policy and governance in the international space community

Despite the global financial crisis, which dominated 2008 and the first half of 2009, Estonia has decided to invest in a space programme. Estonia has extensive experience in the field of astrophysics and has developed capacities in various areas of remote sensing applications. It is on its way to becoming an active ESA partner. This article examines how Estonia is setting its way as a space nation and describes the new context and the role that various bodies are playing in the process. The paper describes the vision and strategy for space activities in the country. An overview of the possible measures to be taken to support the enterprises and scientific institutions with the highest potential for space cooperation is discussed, as are various risks in making progress in the space field, and measures for overcoming these.     

Russia's resurgence: Prospects for space policy and international cooperation

Based on a joint study initiated in 2007–2008 by the Policy planning staff (CAP) of the French Foreign Ministry and the space agency CNES, which brought together experts, researchers and industry insiders, this article considers the factors behind Russia's recent resurgence and the possible revival of its space programme. It examines how far the latter will require international cooperation in order to progress further and discusses likely areas of profitable collaboration with Europe in general and France in particular, given that country's long history of space cooperation with Russia and the need in the mid-term future to share the burden of developing ambitious new space programs. While there is in principle much potential, especially in the area of space transportation, there are also numerous challenges and uncertainties. How these are resolved will affect the level and success of any cooperative efforts of both sides.     

Change and continuity in US space policy

2010 saw both the unveiling of a new US National Space Policy and the announcement of a fundamentally different strategy for US human spaceflight that would move from the NASA-government-led Apollo-style approach to a greater reliance on the private sector and international cooperation. This viewpoint puts forward arguments on why change in the US approach to human spaceflight is needed, while acknowledging that achieving it in the face of vested interests and threats to jobs and livelihoods is extremely difficult. It suggests that greater US recognition of the need to ensure the sustainability of space activity (by addressing debris, radio-frequency interference and potential deliberate disruption of spacecraft), and an apparent willingness to countenance international norms to govern space activities, could be the new policy’s most lasting heritage.     

United States space policy and international partnership

Has the current US space policy improved the USA's overall strategic position? Does it affect favorably international partnerships? These questions are examined in terms of security, political economy, and influence. In today's context, where there are more space players, more options, more potential for unintended consequences, and higher stakes, unilateral action is more limited in its effectiveness than in earlier times. Surveying current US space policy, it is not clear that data-driven, analytically based decisions are being made to affect positively national independence, innovation, market creation, and international perceptions of the USA as a trustworthy partner. More promising are the steps taken to bolster a predictable space operational environment and economic competitiveness. Ultimately, in order to achieve American excellence and leadership, a ‘closed loop’ on the policy system is needed, to gauge regularly and systematically whether the US is achieving the desired national outcomes.     

Environmental protection in space: a quantitative policy study

Survey data were collected in the USA from a national sample of chief executive officers. The first goal of the research was to identify national policies and strategies to control orbital debris, without imposing undue negative impacts on the US private and governmental space sectors. The second goal was to test a theoretical model, developed to predict the willingness of respondents to accept a national space environmental safety programme. National and International implications were drawn.     

Communications with extraterrestrial intelligence: a new dimension of space law

Although little progress has recently been made in concrete law, the development of two inter-related declarations regarding detection and reaction to it, has carried matters further. The declarations are summarised. It is time to formulate their principles as a document suitable for discussion within COPUOS, with the intention that eventually the General Assembly should adopt a Declaration of Principles, with the advantages of the status of such a declaration.     

Time is of the essence: making space law more effective

Traditionally, international legal rules have been established through the adoption of treaties by states, and the five space treaties adopted in the 1960s and 1970s are no exception. Accordingly, the recent proposals for overcoming problems related to the management of space activities have often envisioned the conclusion of new treaties, even a general convention, on space law. However, the process of setting norms through international treaties has certain severe weaknesses, ones affecting space law as much as, if not more than, other fields. These include the lamentably common time lag between drafting, adoption, and entry into force of international standards. Even if states manage to agree on certain provisions, by the time accords are implemented, the problems in question may have reached entirely new and different proportions and strategies that made sense when first proposed already represent ‘too little, too late’. This paper ponders the chances of making norms of international space law operative faster as well as the possibility of creating instruments whose provisions can readily accommodate changing conditions.     

The space elevator in the context of current space exploration policy

The space elevator is an advanced space transportation system that someday could replace chemical rockets as humanity's primary means of reaching Earth's orbit. However, before this can occur, a number of enabling technologies will need to be developed, and a variety of economic and policy questions must be addressed. The goal of this paper is to examine the feasibility of the space elevator in the context of current space exploration policy. The paper reviews the space elevator's critical enabling technologies and presents their wide variety of applications. The challenges of funding the space elevator and of building support for the program are discussed. The potential for international cooperation is considered, and the role of the space elevator in the Vision for Space Exploration is examined. The paper argues that each of the space elevator's component technologies ought to be developed independently to meet separate nearer-term objectives. The space elevator should be just one of many applications considered in making decisions to pursue research and development related to each component technology. The enabling technologies, once mature, might eventually be integrated in the construction of a full-scale space elevator from the Earth's surface to geosynchronous orbit and beyond.     

Evolution of executive branch space policy making

This paper assesses the impacts that changes in the US presidency have had on the civilian space program during the post-Apollo period. It suggests that the White House has lost influence over space issues relative to other interested sectors. The primary factors causing this are a long-term shift to lower priority for these issues, and an inevitable widening of the scope of influence over this sector of activity. Key post-Apollo decisions are discussed for their substantive content and also for what they reveal about the extent to which the president chose to be involved. These findings have implications across all science and technology issue areas as the USA, in the aftermath of the Cold War, reexamines its post-World War II social contract with science.     

Contemporary Czech space policy and its future prospects

Czechoslovakia was the third nation to have a citizen in space when Vladimir Remek flew in 1978. It was present at the formulation of international space law principles and ran some space-related projects within Intercosmos. The Czech Republic reassumed this tradition after Czechoslovakia was dissolved in 1993. There are no special funds to support space R&D. Hence, participants must compete for R&D resources with companies from other areas of industry. This improves their competitiveness. Czech society is broadly interested in space-related activities. The graduate system structure reflects this. Not only can one study space-related courses at technical universities but international space law is an obligatory part of international public law courses in the Czech Republic. Strong support for space activities is mirrored in the institutional fragmentation of this sphere. Competences in space applications are distributed among some 20 institutions and organizations. This status harms the Czech potential in space activities and R&D. The Czech Republic became a member of ESA in 2008 but Czech companies have not taken advantage of the full potential of membership. Participation in international projects is very important for a small post-communist economy because economic growth is based on convergence towards developed countries, which may dissipate after 2020. Now is the right time to strengthen the primary research that will establish a strong foundation for innovation-based economic growth.     

Debating the future of US space policy

A briefing on the subject of US space policy was held in Washington in July 2009 by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Based around some of its recent publications, while emphasizing the US situation and direction, the briefing did not ignore the context of international space activity. In particular it considered China's spacefaring development and suggested ways of engaging more fruitfully with that country. This report presents a summary of the issues raised and recommendations made.     

The US national space transportation policy: issues for congress

Below is a summary of what was to be the first in a series of reports produced by the Office of Technology Assessment (now defunct) on policy for the USA's future space transportation technology and industrial base. It examines the Clinton Administration's 1994 National Space Transportation Policy and supporting implementation plans and raises and analyses such issues as conflicts and redundancies within NASA and DoD space transportation development programs; competition and cooperation with foreign launch vehicle and component providers; US government limits on the conversion of long-range missiles to space launchers in the face of Russian activity in this area; and the effectiveness of Administration efforts to include the private sector in space transportation decision making. Some issues not covered in the Policy are also discussed.