The onset of sunspot cycle 24 and galactic cosmic ray modulation

The annual mean sunspot number (SSN) has a minimum value in 2008, while the monthly mean SSN has a value of zero in August 2009. The galactic cosmic ray modulation for cycle 24 began at earth orbit in January 2010. We study the onset characteristics of the new modulation cycle using data from the global network of neutron monitors. They respond to time variations in different segments of the galactic cosmic ray rigidity spectrum. The corresponding temporal variations in the interplanetary magnetic field intensity (B) and solar wind velocity (V) as well as the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet are also studied. There is a lag of 3 months between a large, sharp increase of the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet and the onset of modulation. Some neutron monitors are undergoing long-term drifts of unknown origin.     

Two intense Forbush decreases of solar activity cycle 22

We study two intense Forbush decreases that occurred during two adjacent SOLTIP (Solar connection of Transient Interplanetary Processes) intervals; namely SOLTIP 1 (22–27 March 1991) and SOLTIP 2 (1–17 June 1991); galactic cosmic ray intensity at the depth of the second Forbush decrease was the lowest ever recorded since continuous monitoring by Climax neutron monitor began in 1951 (58% below the solar minimum value of 1954), indicating extreme conditions in the heliosphere that prevented galactic cosmic rays from reaching the Earth. These decreases were seen propagating in outer heliosphere by the deep space missions Voyagers 1, 2 and Pioneer 10, 11, with suitable time delays. We analyze hourly, pressure corrected, neutron monitor data from the global sites in both hemispheres, and muon telescopes located underground; they respond to 10–300 GV range of the galactic cosmic ray spectrum. This circumstance provides us an ideal opportunity to study the rigidity dependence of the amplitudes of the two Forbush decreases. In both cases the amplitude is found to be a power law in rigidity, with negative exponents.     

Mean energy of response to galactic cosmic ray spectrum: IMP 8 and Climax neutron monitor

Solar modulations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity contain a wealth of information about their transport in the heliosphere. To extract this information from the data one studies the dependence of the observed modulations on the mean energy of response of detectors providing data for the analyses. There is a great deal of confusion about the detector energy response to GCR spectrum in the literature. We present a preliminary report on the computations of the mean energy of response for the Climax neutron monitor (CL/NM) and IMP 8 cosmic ray nuclear composition instrument to GCR protons for 1973–1998, covering the solar cycles 21 and 22. We find that for penetrating proton channel on IMP 8 the mean energy changes by a factor of over two whereas for the neutron monitor the change is only 21%. However, the corresponding change for the computed modulation function is a factor of about 3.5.     

Empirical model of cosmic ray spectrum in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during 11-year solar cycle

The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are the main ionization source at altitude of ∼3–35 km in the atmosphere. For high latitude anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component has also a significant influence on the atmospheric ionization. We propose an empirical model for differential spectra D(E) of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during solar cycle. In the model data are used which cover three solar cycles: 20, 22 and 23. The LEAP87, IMAX92, CAPRICE94, AMS98 and BESS experimental spectra for protons and alpha particles are fitted to the proposed empirical model. The modulated GCR differential spectra are compared with force-field approximation to the one-dimensional transport equation and with solutions of two-dimensional cosmic ray transport equation. For experimental spectra, the calculation of the model parameters is performed by Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, applied to the special case of least squares. Algorithm that combines the rapid local convergence of Newton–Raphson method with globally convergent method for non-linear systems of equations is applied for theoretically obtained differential spectra. The described programmes are realized in algorithmic language C++. The proposed model gives practical possibility for investigation of experimental data from measurements of galactic cosmic rays and their anomalous component.     

Rigidity spectrum of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity

We study the temporal evolution of the power rigidity spectrum of the first (27 days) and the second (14 days) harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity measured by neutron monitors in the period of 1965–2002. The rigidity spectrum of these variations can be approximated by a power law. We show the rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity have similar time profiles. These spectra are hard (γ ≈ 0.5 ± 0.1) and soft (γ ≈ 1.1 ± 0.2) during solar maximum and minimum activity, respectively. We ascribe this to the alternation of the sizes of the modulation regions responsible for the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity. Especially, the average radial sizes of the modulation regions of the 27-day variation and the heliolatitudinal extension of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry are smaller during solar minimum than during solar maximum. We show also, that the temporal changes of the power rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity are in a negative correlation with the changes of the rigidity spectrum of the corresponding 11-year variation.     

Observed solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic rays over a range of rigidities

We have studied the long-term, steady-state, solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity for seven cycles (17–23). Our analysis is based on the data obtained with a variety of detectors on earth (neutron monitors of the global network and muon detectors) as well as telescopes flown on high altitude balloons and on-board near-earth satellites. The median rigidity of response for these detectors to galactic cosmic ray spectrum lies in the range 1–70 GV. We correlate cosmic ray data to sunspot numbers, Ap, solar wind bulk speed (V), magnetic field (B), as well as to the cycle maximum (M), minimum (m), and the epochs of the solar polar field reversals. This enables us to derive the rigidity dependence of observations, and helps us to define the characteristics of the modulation function in the heliosphere.     

27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy in the minimum of the 23rd solar activity cycle

We study the 27-day variations of the solar wind velocity, galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity and anisotropy in the last minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0). The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy (A27A) in the current minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0) is lesser than in previous positive polarity period as it is expected from the drift theory. So, polarity dependence rule for the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy is fully kept. It is a universal principle for the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy. At the same time, the average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (A27I) remains at the same level as for previous minimum epoch 1995–1997 (A > 0) showing by the same token an violation of its polarity dependence rule established earlier. We assume that this phenomenon could be generally related with the well established 27-day variation of the solar wind velocity being in anti-correlation with the similar changes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. Generally, a character of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of spatial large-scale structure of the solar wind velocity (SWV) established in the recent minimum epoch, preferentially pronounces in the behavior of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity than anisotropy. The formation of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy preferentially takes place in a restricted disk like local vicinity in the helioequatorial region, whilst the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is formed in the global three dimensional vicinity of the heliosphere.     

Radial and latitudinal gradients of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

Our understanding of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation has advanced greatly in the last three decades. However, we still need an appropriate knowledge of the GCR intensity gradient. Numerical simulations of the transport particle equation allow interpretation of cosmic ray intensities in the heliosphere. We use the numerical solution of the GCR transport equation during solar maximum epoch to compute the radial and latitudinal gradients. Our analysis indicates that adiabatic energy loss plays an important role in the radial distribution of GCR in the inner heliosphere, while in the outer region the diffusion and convection are the relevant processes. The latitudinal gradient is small.     

Energy dependence of the rigidity spectrum of Forbush decrease of galactic cosmic ray intensity

We show that rigidity spectrum of Forbush decrease (Fd) of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in September 9–23, 2005 clearly depends on energy. We calculated rigidity spectrum of the Fd based on the neutron monitors and Nagoya muon telescope channels’ data divided in three groups according to their cut off rigidities. We found that temporal changes of rigidity spectrum exponent γ are approximately similar for all cut off rigidity groups, but γ values are the larger the higher are cut off rigidities. We conclude that rigidity spectrum of Fd is hard for lower energy range and is soft for the higher energy range. We believe that an energy dependence of the power law rigidity spectrum of Fd is observed owing to the preferential convection–diffusion mechanism during Fd in September 9–23, 2005. It is a reflection of an influence of the temporal changes of the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turbulence in different range of frequency f during Fd. Particularly, a decisive role in formation of the character of the rigidity spectrum belongs to the changes of the exponent ν of the power spectral density (PSD) of the IMF turbulence (PSD ∝ f^−ν). The exponent ν is greater for high frequency region of the IMF turbulence (responsible for scattering of low rigidity particles of GCR), than for low frequency region of the IMF turbulence (being responsible for scattering of higher rigidity particles). Also, we challenge to estimate an existence of slab/2D structure of solar wind turbulence during the Fd in September 9–23, 2005 based on the distribution of average turbulence energy among the IMF’s components.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

α–ω Effect and peculiarities of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity,solar wind and solar activity parameters

We show that the amplitudes of the 27-day variations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind and solar activity parameters have a periodicity with duration of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3–4 CRP). We assume that the general reason for this phenomenon may be related to similar cyclicity of topological structure of the solar magnetic field lines created owing to the asymmetry of turbulent solar dynamo and solar differential rotation transforming the Sun’s poloidal magnetic field to the toroidal (α–ω effect), and vice versa.     

Sunspot numbers,interplanetary magnetic field,and cosmic ray intensity at earth: Nexus for the twentieth century

The pivotal role played by the interplanetary magnetic field (B) in modulating galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the heliosphere is described. We show that the inverse correlation observed by Forbush (1958) between GCRs and sunspot numbers (SSNs) is reflected in high correlation between SSNs and B (cc = 0.94). The SSN data are available since 1700 and the derived B data since 1835. The paleo-cosmic ray data are available for several millennia in the form of ¹⁰Be radionuclide sequestered in polar ice. The data of the ion chambers (ICs) at the Cheltenham–Fredericksburg–Yakutsk (CFY) sites are combined to create a data string for 1937–1988. In turn, these data are used to extend the measurements of the low energy GCR ions (>0.1 GeV) at balloon altitudes at high latitudes in Russia to 1937. These data are then correlated to B and the fit parameters are used to extend the low energy ion data to 1900, creating the instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century. The derived GCR time series is compared to ¹⁰Be measured at two sites in Greenland, namely Dye 3 and NGRIP for 1900–2000 to check the internal consistency of datasets for the long-term trend. We find that the annual mean rate (%) for 1965 at NGRIP is an outlier. We replace it with the mean of 1964 and 1965 rates and construct a new re-normalized time series at NGIP, improving the agreement with the derived instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century as well. This should encourage its use by heliophysics community for varied applications.     

Cosmogenic 44Ti in meteorites and century scale solar modulation.

The galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is modulated by solar activity: 11 and 22 year cycles are well established. Meteorites offer the possibility of studying longer cycles in the interplanetary space, due to GCR nuclear interactions. 44Ti cosmogenic isotope produced in meteorites is suitable for detecting a century scale modulation. So far reliable measurements of 44Ti in the samples are scarce, the radioisotope concentration being very low. A gamma-ray sensitive spectrometer has been set up in the underground laboratory of Monte dei Cappuccini. The system consists of a 2 kg HPGe detector inside a 28 kg NaI well. The system has a background of approximately 1 count/day (in coincidence mode) in the 44Ti region. We present here the results obtained on the Rio Negro meteorite, which fell in the year 1934.     

Solar modulation and nuclear fragmentation effects in galactic cosmic ray transport through shielding.

Crews of manned interplanetary missions may accumulate significant radiation exposures from the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment in space. Estimates of how these dose levels are affected by the assumed temporal and spatial variations in the composition of the GCR environment, and by the effects of the spacecraft and body self-shielding on the transported radiation fields are presented. In this work, the physical processes through which shielding alters the transported radiation fields are described. We then present estimates of the effects on model calculations of (1) nuclear fragmentation model uncertainties, (2) solar modulation, (3) variations between solar cycles, and (4) proposed changes to the quality factors which relate dose equivalent to absorbed dose.     

Cosmic ray anisotropies in the outer heliosphere

The observation of the directional distribution of energetic and cosmic ray particles has been done with the Voyager spacecraft over a long period. Since 2002, when the first flux enhancements of charged particles associated with the approach of Voyager 1 to the solar wind termination shock were observed, these anisotropy measurements have become of special interest. They play an important role to understand the magnetic field and shock structure and the basics of the modulation of cosmic ray and anomalous particles at and beyond the termination shock. They also serve as motivation to study the spatial behavior of galactic and anomalous cosmic ray anisotropies with numerical modulation models in order to illustrate how the radial anisotropy, at different energies, change from upstream to downstream of the termination shock. Observations made by Voyager 1 indicate that the termination shock is a complicated region than previously thought, hence the effects of the latitude dependence of the termination shock’s compression ratio and injection efficiency on the radial anisotropies of galactic and anomalous protons will be illustrated. We find that the magnitude and direction of the radial anisotropy strongly depends on the position in the heliosphere and the energy of particles. The effect of the TS on the radial anisotropy is to abruptly increase its value in the heliosheath especially in the A > 0 cycle for galactic protons and in both polarity cycles for anomalous protons. Furthermore, the global effect of the latitude dependence of the shock’s compression ratio is to increase the radial anisotropy for galactic protons throughout the heliosphere, while when combined with the latitude dependence of the injection efficiency this increase depends on modulation factors for anomalous protons and can even alter the direction of the radial anisotropy.     

Evolution of Dst index,cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23

We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and climate change. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. Dst index is commonly used as the solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere interaction characteristic. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst variations in these solar cycles were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate and can be used for study of CR variations. Global temperature variations in connection with evolution of Dst index and CR variations is discussed.     

Modeling ground and space based cosmic ray observations

After entering our local astrosphere (called the heliosphere), galactic cosmic rays, as charged particles, are affected by the Sun’s turbulent magnetic field. This causes their intensities to decrease towards the inner heliosphere, a process referred to as modulation. Over the years, cosmic ray modulation has been studied extensively at Earth, utilizing both ground and space based observations. Moreover, modelling cosmic ray modulation and comparing results with observations, insight can be gained into the transport of these particles, as well as offering explanations for observed features. We review some of the most prominent cosmic ray observations made near Earth, how these observations can be modelled and what main insights are gained from this modelling approach. Furthermore, a discussion on drifts, as one of the main modulation processes, are given as well as how drift effects manifest in near Earth observations. We conclude by discussing the contemporary challenges, fuelled by observations, which are presently being investigated. A main challenge is explaining observations made during the past unusual solar minimum.     

Temporal variations of the cosmic ray intensity and the magnetic configurations of the heliosphere

Data from worldwide network of neutron and muon detectors are used to study 11-year variations of cosmic rays, over four solar activity cycles. We find that the recovery of the cosmic ray intensity follows one of the two distinct modes. During odd cycles recovery is completed in 6 to 8 years, but during even cycles complete recovery occurs in 2 to 3 years. Two model magnetic configurations of the heliosphere are proposed to understand these recovery modes. Implications of these models are also discussed.