Development of one-minute rain-rate and rain-attenuation contour maps for satellite propagation system planning in a subtropical country: South Africa

Millimeter and microwave system design at higher frequencies require as input a 1-min rain-rate cumulative distribution function for estimating the level of degradation that can be encountered at such frequency bands. Owing to the lack of 1-min rain-rate data in South Africa and the availability of 5-min and hourly rainfall data, we have used rain-rate conversion models and the refined Moupfouma model to convert the available data into 1-min rain-rate statistics. The attenuation caused by these rain rates was predicted using the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recommendations model. The Kriging interpolation method was used to draw contour maps over different percentages of time for spatial interpolation of rain-rate values into a regular grid in order to obtain a highly consistent and predictable inter-gauge rain-rate variation over South Africa. The present results will be useful for system designers of modern broadband wireless access (BWA) and high-density cell-based Ku/Ka, Q/V band satellite systems, over the desired area of coverage in order to determine the appropriate effective isotropically radiated power (EIRP) and receiver characteristics of this region.     

Variations in the ionospheric scale height parameter at the F2 peak over Grahamstown,South Africa

The Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E) ionospheric field station operates a Lowell digital pulse ionospheric sounder (Digisonde) whose output includes scaled parameters derived from the measured ionogram. One of these output parameters is the ionospheric scale height parameter (H), and this paper presents an analysis of the seasonal, diurnal, and solar activity variations of this parameter over the Grahamstown station. Ionosonde data from three years 2002, 2003, and 2004 were used in this study. The data was subjected to a general trend analysis to remove any outliers and then the monthly median data were used to explore the different variations. The results of this analysis were found to be similar to what has already been presented in the literature for low latitude stations, and are presented as well as the correlation at this mid-latitude station between the H parameter, the IRI shape parameter (B0), and the peak electron density (NmF2).     

Application of neural networks to South African GPS TEC modelling

The propagation of radio signals in the Earth’s atmosphere is dominantly affected by the ionosphere due to its dispersive nature. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provides relevant information that leads to the derivation of total electron content (TEC) which can be considered as the ionosphere’s measure of ionisation. This paper presents part of a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Vertical total electron content (VTEC) was calculated for four GPS receiver stations using the Adjusted Spherical Harmonic (ASHA) model. Factors that influence TEC were then identified and used to derive input parameters for the NN. The well established factors used are seasonal variation, diurnal variation, solar activity and magnetic activity. Comparison of diurnal predicted TEC values from both the NN model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) with GPS TEC revealed that the IRI provides more accurate predictions than the NN model during the spring equinoxes. However, on average the NN model predicts GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI model over the GPS locations considered within South Africa.     

Update on the Leonids

Meteor storms are of concern to satellite operators because they are a natural impact hazard. Little is known about their cause and effect. Meteor storms are rare and have never been studied by modern techniques. Now, the upcoming Leonid returns of November '98 and '99 offer a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to gather data that can help assess the impact hazard of meteor storms and provide a wealth of data on the physics and chemistry of meteoroids accreting into the Earth's atmosphere. Three months before the Nov. '98 return, we here give an update of what to expect and what observing efforts are going to be made.     

Ocean circulation studies in the vicinity of Southern Africa: Preliminary results using FGGE drifters and remote sensing

The three highly variable ocean circulation systems which meet south of South Africa have been studied by combining the use of satellite thermal infra-red imagery, hydrographic measurements and drifting buoys. We present a few preliminary examples where this method has been successful. These include the sources of the Agulhas Current, the influence of the Agulhas Current on the Cape upwelling region as well as the interaction of the Agulhas Current with the Subtropical Convergence. An example is also given of how a biological hypothesis concerning the recruitment of a rock lobster species at Vema Seamount has been supported by the analysis of the drifts of FGGE buoys in the South Atlantic Ocean.     

Validation of University of New Brunswick Ionospheric Modeling Technique with ionosonde TEC estimation over South Africa

For more than a decade, ionospheric research over South Africa has been carried out using data from ionosondes geographically located at Madimbo (28.38°S, 30.88°E), Grahamstown (33.32°S, 26.50°E), and Louisvale (28.51°S, 21.24°E). The objective has been modelling the bottomside ionospheric characteristics using neural networks. The use of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data is described as a new technique to monitor the dynamics and variations of the ionosphere over South Africa, with possible future application in high frequency radio communication. For this task, the University of New Brunswick Ionospheric Modelling Technique (UNB-IMT) was applied to compute midday (10:00 UT) GNSS-derived total electron content (GTEC). GTEC values were computed using GNSS data for stations located near ionosondes for the years 2002 and 2005 near solar maximum and minimum, respectively. The GTEC was compared with the midday ionosonde-derived TEC (ITEC) measurements to validate the UNB-IMT results. It was found that the variation trends of GTEC and ITEC over all stations are in good agreement and show a pronounced seasonal variation for the period near solar maximum, with maximum values (∼80 TECU) around autumn and spring equinoxes, and minimum values (∼22 TECU) around winter and summer. Furthermore, the residual ΔTEC = GTEC − ITEC was computed. It was evident that ΔTEC, which is believed to correspond to plasmaspheric electron content, showed a pronounced seasonal variation with maximum values (∼20 TECU) around equinoxes and minimum (∼5 TECU) around winter near solar maximum. The equivalent ionospheric and total slab thicknesses were also computed and comprehensively discussed. The results verified the use of UNB-IMT as one of the tools for future ionospheric TEC research over South Africa.     

An investigation of ionospheric disturbances over South Africa during the magnetic storm on 15 May 2005

The effects of the 15 May 2005 severe geomagnetic storm on the South African ionosphere are studied using ground-based and satellite observations. Ionospheric disturbances have less frequently been investigated over mid-latitude regions. Recently, a number of studies investigated their evolution and generation over these regions. This paper reports on the first investigation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over mid-latitude South Africa. Using global positioning system (GPS)-derived total electron content (TEC) variations from the South African network of dual frequency GPS receivers, we were able to examine the effects of the disturbance on the TEC. During this storm, two TEC enhancements were observed at low- and mid-latitudes: the first enhancement was observed between 30–45°S geomagnetic latitudes associated with equatorward neutral winds and the passage of a TID, while the second TEC enhancement is associated with a second TID. In addition, the F-region critical frequency (foF2) values observed at two ionosonde stations show response features that differ from those of the TEC during the disturbance period. The dissimilarity between the TEC and the foF2 suggests that two competing drivers may have existed, i.e., the westward electric field and equatorward neutral wind effects.     

Impact of space research and technology on small countries

Results of an analysis on impact of space research and technology on developing countries undertaken by the UNISPACE 82 Secretariat on base on national papers submitted by UN member countries to the Conference are reviewed.Experience concerning the implications of a co-operative program on satellite geodesy between the Astronomical Council of the USSR Academy of Sciences and several small countries of Africa, Asia and South America is discussed.     

基于危险要素的危险分析技术

在系统初步设计阶段,针对初步危险分析过程中缺乏具体、明确的实施方法,提出了基于危险要素的危险分析技术.确定对象中的危险元素,对部件进行分类,结合不同类型部件各种可能的状态,考虑其对危险元素的影响,分析可能的触发机制并得出相关的威胁/对象,识别设计中的危险和薄弱环节.以飞机燃油系统为例,验证了该分析技术的实用性和有效性.在系统的初步方案设计阶段,该方法能够与设计方案相结合,全面分析可能存在的危险,为后续设计和危险分析提供工作侧重点,并适用于后续研制阶段的安全性分析工作.     

Statistical characterisation of spread F over South Africa

The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes in 1996 and 2000 at Grahamstown (33.32 °S, 26.50 °E) and Madimbo (22.38 °S, 30.88 °E) respectively. This study is intended to quantify the probability of occurrence of F region disturbances associated with SF over South Africa. A study was conducted using data for 8 years (2001–2008) over Madimbo (with a time resolution of 30 min) and Grahamstown (with a variable time resolution of 15 and 30 min). In this study, SF has been classified into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The SF events were identified by manually identifying ionograms showing SF and tabulating them according to type for further statistical analysis. The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF peaks strongly between 01:00 and 02:00 local time, LT (LT = UT + 2 h), where UT is the universal time. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown in 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring in 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing solar activity, with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study, SF was evident in ∼0.03% and ∼0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the 8 years.     

All-sky-imaging capabilities for ionospheric space weather research using geomagnetic conjugate point observing sites

Optical signatures of ionospheric disturbances exist at all latitudes on Earth—the most well known case being visible aurora at high latitudes. Sub-visual emissions occur equatorward of the auroral zones that also indicate periods and locations of severe Space Weather effects. These fall into three magnetic latitude domains in each hemisphere: (1) sub-auroral latitudes ～40–60°, (2) mid-latitudes (20–40°) and (3) equatorial-to-low latitudes (0–20°).Boston University has established a network of all-sky-imagers (ASIs) with sites at opposite ends of the same geomagnetic field lines in each hemisphere—called geomagnetic conjugate points. Our ASIs are autonomous instruments that operate in mini-observatories situated at four conjugate pairs in North and South America, plus one pair linking Europe and South Africa. In this paper, we describe instrument design, data-taking protocols, data transfer and archiving issues, image processing, science objectives and early results for each latitude domain. This unique capability addresses how a single source of disturbance is transformed into similar or different effects based on the unique “receptor” conditions (seasonal effects) found in each hemisphere. Applying optical conjugate point observations to Space Weather problems offers a new diagnostic approach for understanding the global system response functions operating in the Earth’s upper atmosphere.     

Variations of geomagnetic cutoff rigidity in the southern hemisphere close to 70°W (South-Atlantic Anomaly and Antarctic zones) in the period 1975–2010

We report the existence of rapid variations in (effective) geomagnetic cutoff rigidity (Rc) between the equatorial and Antarctic zones adjacent to the Andes Mountains, revealed by the variation rate of geomagnetic cutoff rigidity (VRc) in the period 1975–2010. Our analysis is based on empirical records and theoretical models of the variations in cosmic rays and on the structure of geomagnetic fields. These have given us a different view of variations in Rc in time and space along the 70°W meridian, where secular variations in the geomagnetic field are strongly influenced by the proximity of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), one of the most important characteristics of the terrestrial magnetic field that affects our planet, close from the equator to the 50°S parallel and from South America to South Africa. The VRc presents rapid changes in mid-latitudes where SAMA exerts its influence despite the existence of smooth changes in the geomagnetic field. This shows that these changes occur mainly in the spatial configuration, rather than in the temporal evolution of Rc. The analysis was performed using measurements from the Chilean Network of Cosmic Rays and Geomagnetism Observatories, equipped with BF-3 and latest generation He-3 neutron monitors, Fluxgate magnetometers, geomagnetic reference field (IGRF) and Tsyganenko 2001 model (just for completeness).     

面向电力系统的多粒度隐患检测方法

由于电力系统的安全问题往往会造成严重的经济或社会影响,隐患检测已成为电力系统不可或缺的重要环节。随着人工智能领域的发展,基于深度学习的智能化电力系统隐患检测技术逐渐得到越来越多的关注。但目前的方法大多只是单一地考虑图像的全局特征或局部特征,无法全面彻底表征图像,进而难以捕捉电力领域尤其室外复杂背景下的隐患检测。为此,基于深度学习技术,提出了一种面向电力系统的多粒度隐患检测方法MGNet。通过引入图像的多粒度信息,构建全局和局部网络,进行多粒度级检测;并通过不同粒度级检测结果的协作式融合,增强检测的全面性。在杆塔连接金具隐患和线路通道机械隐患2个数据集上进行了实验比较和分析,对所提模型的检测性能进行评估。通过与现有最优隐患检测基准方法相比,所提方法在2种不同数据集上的平均精度均值分别提升了2.74%和2.77%,验证了模型的有效性。      

2012年3月9日中国某地球同步轨道卫星故障原因分析

利用GOES-15, SDO, SOHO卫星以及国际地磁台网的地磁活动指数数据, 对中国 某颗地 球同步轨道卫星(以GEO-X代替)在2012年3月9日02:50UTC发生的异常原因进 行了研究, 分析故障发生期间的空间天气特点, 采用文献[8]提出的SEAES-GEO空 间环境引起地球同步轨道卫星异常的专家系统对卫星故障期间的内部充电危 险系数、单粒子效应危险系数以及表面充电危险系数进行定量计算和危险等 级划分. 结果表明, 在卫星故障时刻, 其内部充电危险系数小于3, 表面充电危险 系数约为0.0011, 表面充电和内部充电不是造成GEO-X故障的原因; 受故障期间 质子事件影响, 单粒子效应危险系数持续维持在1以上, GEO-X卫星故障时刻单 粒子效应危险系数Z_SEE达到46.3, 正好处于单粒子效应危险等级的 红色阶段. 因此研究认为单粒子效应可能是造成本次卫星故障的主要原因.      

Performance evaluation of IRI-2007 at equatorial latitudes and its Matlab version for GNSS applications

International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model is the widely used empirical model for ionospheric predictions, especially TEC which is an important parameter for radio navigation and communication. The Fortran based IRI-2007 does not support real-time interactive visualization and debugging. Therefore, the source code is converted into Matlab and is validated for the purposes of this study. This facilitates easy representation of results and for near real-time implementation of IRI in the applications including spacecraft launching, now casting, pseudolite based navigation systems etc. In addition, the vertical delay results over the equatorial region derived from IRI and GPS data of three IGS stations namely Libreville (Garbon, Africa), Brasilia (Brazil, South America) and Hyderabad (India, Asia) are compared. As the IRI model does not account for plasmasphere TEC, the vertical delays are underestimated compared to vertical delays of GPS signals. Therefore, the model should be modified accordingly for precise TEC estimation.     

Temporal variation in the new proton belt created in March 1991 observed using the CREAM & CREDO experiments.

The Cosmic Radiation Environment & Activation Monitor (CREAM) was carried in high inclination (57.1 degrees) orbits on Shuttle missions STS-48 in September 1991 (altitude 570 km) and STS-53 (altitude 325 to 385 km) in December 1992. On both occasions the instrument observed an excess of counts due to protons of greater than 30 MeV in energy in the region off of South Africa where field lines of L=2.5 intersect low earth orbit. Meanwhile the Cosmic Radiation Environment and Dosimetry Experiment (CREDO) carried to 840 km, 98.7 degrees orbit on UOSAT-3 has continued to sample the high field portions of the L-shells around L = 2.5 from April 1990 until the present time. When careful subtraction of cosmic-ray contributions is made it can be seen that the March 91 enhancement persisted for approximately 8 months and explains the STS-48 observation. There would appear to have been a further increase produced by the 31 October 1992 flare event and seen by STS-53.     

Observations of wave activity in the ionosphere over South Africa in geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods

The present paper deals with observations of wave activity in the period range 1–60 min at ionospheric heights over the Western Cape, South Africa from May 2010 to July 2010. The study is based on the Doppler type sounding of the ionosphere. The Doppler frequency shift measurements are supplemented with measurements of collocated Digisonde DPS-4D at SANSA Space Sciences, Hermanus. Nine geomagnetically quiet days and nine geomagnetically active days were included in the study. Waves of periods 4–30 min were observed during the daytime independent of the level of geomagnetic activity. Amplitudes of 10–30 min waves always increased between 14:00 and 16:15 UT (16:00–18:15 LT). Secondary maxima were observed between 06:00 and 07:00 UT (08:00–09:00 LT). The maximum wave amplitudes occurred close to the time of passage of the solar terminator in the studied region which is known to act as a source of gravity waves.     

Tropical forest extent and changes

A UNEP/FAO assessment of the extent and rate of change of the tropical forest resources of 76 countries found that during the period 1976–1980 the amount of closed forest removed annually in the Americas, Asia and Africa was 4.1 million hectares, 1.8 million hectares and 1.3 million hectares respectively. Projections for 1981–1985 suggest that closed forest annual removal will remain at these same levels in Asia and Africa but will rise to 4.3 million hectares in the Americas thus giving a world removal total of 7.5 million hectares per year. No reliable information is available on the open forest areas cleared during 1975–1980 but annual open forest clearance during 1981–1985 is expected to be 2.3 million hectares for Africa, 1.2 million hectares for the Americas, and 0.19 million hectares for Asia. Shifting cultivation is the greatest single cause of deforestation. Removal of wood for energy purposes is a significant cause of deforestation in the drier tropics. If current removal rates are maintained, some 88 percent of the present world cover of tropical broad leaved forests will still remain at the end of the century.     

FY-3A观测的次南大西洋异常区形成机理

研究FY-3A卫星观测到的内辐射带质子通量分布,发现3～5MeV能道出现除南大西洋异常区以外的第二个异常区.该异常区是一个质子通量的次极值区,由于该质子通量极值区比主南大西洋异常区强度弱、面积小,因此称之为次南大西洋异常区.通过在主南大西洋异常区和次南大西洋异常区分别选取有代表性的样本点进行研究,发现内辐射带质子通量随投掷角近似呈正态分布,当投掷角在90°附近时,质子通量出现极大值;当投掷角大于120°或者小于60°时,质子通量几乎为零.此外,主南大西洋异常区质子通量在各个能道均为完全各向异性,次南大西洋异常区质子通量随着能道增高逐渐趋于各向同性.通过NOAA观测数据对此规律进行了验证,并由此解释了次南大西洋异常区的形成机理.