Use of principal component analysis in the identification of the spatial pattern of an ionospheric total electron content anomalies after China’s May 12, 2008, M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies in the ionosphere post the China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May, 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9). PCA and image processing are applied to the global ionospheric map (GIM) with transforms conducted for the time period 08:00–10:00 UT on 12 May 2008. Results show that at a height of approximately 200 km the anomaly is widespread and less intense; however, it becomes more localized with height reaching maximum intensity and localization at an altitude of 300 km. The spatial distribution is remarkably similar to that reported for a TEC anomaly previously identified as a precursor anomaly on May 9, 2008 for the same time period. Potential causes of the results are discussed with emphasis given to vertical acoustic gravity waves based on the spatial pattern identified.     

Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan,Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

A powerful earthquake of M_w = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.     

A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26–34 nm (EUV_26–34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F_10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content in Indian low latitude region of the equatorial anomaly during May 2007–April 2008

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC), derived by analyzing dual frequency signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) recorded near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (geomagnetic latitude 14°, 55′N, geomagnetic longitude 154°E) is studied. Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the solar minimum period from May 2007 to April 2008. It is found that the daily maximum TEC near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semiannual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Statistical studies indicate that the variation of EIA crest in TEC is poorly correlated with Dst-index (r = −0.03) but correlated well with Kp-index (r = 0.82). The EIA crest in TEC is found to be more developed around 12:30 LT.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004

The periodic variation of TEC data at Xiamen station (geographic coordinate: 24.4°N, 118.1°E; geomagnetic coordinate: 13.2°N, 187.4°E) at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004 is analyzed. The characteristic of TEC association with solar activity and geomagnetic activity are also analyzed. The method of continuous wavelet, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence transform methods have been used. Analysis results show that long-term variations of TEC at Xiamen station are mainly controlled by the variations of solar activities. Several remarkable components including 128–256 days, 256–512 days and 512–1024 days exist in TEC variations. The TEC data at Xiamen station is in anti-phase with geomagnetic Dst index in semiannual time-scale, but this response only exists during high solar activity. Diurnal variation of TEC is studied for different seasons. Some features like the semiannual anomaly and winter anomaly in TEC have been reported.     

Response of the EIA ionosphere to the 7-8 May 2005 geomagnetic storm

In this paper, response of low latitude ionosphere to a moderate geomagnetic storm of 7–8 May 2005 (SSC: 1920 UT on 7 May with Sym-H minimum, ∼−112 nT around 1600 UT on 8 May) has been investigated using the GPS measurements from a near EIA crest region, Rajkot (Geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E, Geomag.14°), India. We found a decrease in total electron content (TEC) in 12 h after the onset of the storm, an increase during and after 6 h of Sym-H deep minimum with a decrease below its usual-day level on the second day during the recovery phase of the storm. On 8 May, an increase of TEC is observed after sunset and during post-midnight hours (maximum up to 170%) with the formation of ionospheric plasma bubbles followed by a nearly simultaneous onset of scintillations at L-band frequencies following the time of rapid decrease in Sym-H index (−30 nT/h around 1300 UT).     

Investigation of GPS-TEC measurements using ANN method indicating seismo-ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Chile (Mw = 8.2) earthquake of 01 April 2014

In 94 km NW of Iquique in Chile (19.610°S, 70.776°W) a powerful earthquake of M_w = 8.2 took place at 23:46:47 UTC (20:46:47 LT) on April 01, 2014. Using GPS-TEC (Total Electron Content) measurements, potential unusual variations around the time and location of the Chile earthquake have been detected based on the median and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The indices D_st, K_p, A_p and F10.7 were used to distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to the solar-geomagnetic activities. Using the median method, striking anomalies in time series of TEC data are observed 4 days before the earthquake at 14:00 and 16:00 UTC. The ANN method detected a number of anomalies, 4 (02:00 and 16:00 UTC) and 13 (24:00 UTC) days preceding the earthquake. The results indicate that the ANN method due to its capability of non linear learning is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a robust predictor tool for seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection.     

Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and comparison with IRI model during descending phase of solar activity (2005–2009)

The ionospheric variability at equatorial and low latitude region is known to be extreme as compared to mid latitude region. In this study the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), is derived by analyzing dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at two stations separated by 325 km near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (Geog latitude 25°, 16^/ N, longitude 82°, 59^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 16°, 08^/ N) and Kanpur (Geog latitude 26°, 18^/ N, longitude 80°, 12^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 17°, 18^/ N). Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the descending phase of solar activity from 2005 to 2009. It is found that the maximum TEC (EIA) near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semi-annual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Results also showed the presence of winter anomaly or seasonal anomaly in the EIA crest throughout the period 2005–2009 only except during the deep solar minimum year 2007–2008. The correlation analysis indicate that the variation of EIA crest is more affected by solar activity compared to geomagnetic activity with maximum dependence on the solar EUV flux, which is attributed to direct link of EUV flux on the formation of ionosphere and main agent of the ionization. The statistical mean occurrence of EIA crest in TEC during the year from 2005 to 2009 is found to around 12:54 LT hour and at 21.12° N geographic latitude. The crest of EIA shifts towards lower latitudes and the rate of shift of the crest latitude during this period is found to be 0.87° N/per year. The comparison between IRI models with observation during this period has been made and comparison is poor with increasing solar activity with maximum difference during the year 2005.     

Anomalous TEC variations associated with the strong Pakistan-Iran border region earthquake of 16 April 2013 at a low latitude station Agra,India

Employing a dual frequency GPS-receiver, ionospheric total electron (TEC) measurements have been in progress at Agra station in India (Geograph. lat. 27.2°N, long. 78°E) since 1 April 2006. In this paper, the TEC data have been analyzed for a period of one month from 1 April-1 May 2013 to examine the effect of multiple earthquakes, some of which occurred on the same day of 16 April 2013, and others occurred in the same month of April, 2013 in India and neighboring countries. We process the data using quartile and epoch analysis based statistical techniques and show that out of all the earthquakes, the one of the largest magnitude (M = 7.8) that occurred on Pakistan-Iran border caused anomalous enhancements and depletions in TEC 1–9 days before the occurrence of main sock. The E × B drift mechanism is suggested for the anomalies to occur in which the seismogenic electric field E is generated in a process suggested by Pulinets (2004).     

Day-to-day variability of equatorial anomaly in GPS-TEC during low solar activity period

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in the northern hemispheric equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region is investigated by using dual-frequency signals of the Global Positioning System (GPS) acquired from Rajkot (Geog. Lat. 22.29°N, Geog. Long. 70.74°E; Geom. Lat. 14.21°N, Geom. Long. 144.90°E), India. The day-to-day variability of EIA characteristics is examined during low solar activity period (F10.7∼83 sfu). It is found that the daily maximum TEC at EIA crest exhibits a day-to-day and strong semi-annual variability. The seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry in TEC at EIA is found non-existent and weaker, respectively. We found a moderate and positive correlation of daily magnitude of crest, Ic with daily F10.7 and EUV fluxes with a correlation coefficient of 0.43 and 0.33, respectively indicating an existence of a short-term relation between TEC at EIA and the solar radiation even during low solar activity period. The correlation of daily Ic with Dst index is also moderate (r = −0.35), whereas no correlation is found with the daily Kp index (r = 0.14) respectively. We found that the magnitude of EIA crest is moderately correlated with solar flux in all seasons except winter where it is weakly related (0.27). The magnitude of EIA crest is also found highly related with EEJ strength in spring (r = 0.69) and summer (r = 0.65) than autumn (0.5) and winter (r = 0.47), though EEJ is stronger in autumn than spring.     

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering M_w 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.     

Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Variability study of the crest-to-trough TEC ratio of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 120°E longitude

In this paper, latitudinal profiles of the vertical total electron content (TEC) deduced from the dual-frequency GPS measurements obtained at ground stations around 120°E longitude were used to study the variability of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). The present study mainly focuses on the analysis of the crest-to-trough TEC ratio (TEC-CTR) which is an important parameter representing the strength of EIA. Data used for the present study covered the time period from 01 January, 1998 to 31 December, 2004. An empirical orthogonal function analysis method is used to obtain the main features of the TEC-CTR’s diurnal and seasonal variations as well as its solar activity level dependency. Our results showed that: (1) The diurnal variation pattern of the TEC-CTR at 120°E longitude is characterized by two remarkable peaks, one occurring in the post-noon hours around 13–14 LT, and the other occurring in the post-sunset hours around 20–21 LT, and the post-sunset peak has a much higher value than the post-noon one. (2) Both for the north and south crests, the TEC-CTR at 120°E longitude showed a semi-annual variation with maximum peak values occurring in the equinoctial months. (3) TEC-CTR for the north crest has lower values in summer than in winter, whereas TEC-CTR for the south crest does not show this ‘winter anomaly’ effect. In other words, TEC-CTR for both the north and south crests has higher values in the northern hemispheric winter than in the northern hemispheric summer. (4) TEC-CTR in the daytime post-noon hours (12–14 LT) does not vary much with the solar activity, however, TEC-CTR in the post-sunset hours (19–21 LT) shows a clear dependence on the solar activity, its values increasing with solar activity.     

On the variabilities of the Total Electron Content (TEC) over the Indian low latitude sector

The Total Electron Content (TEC) from four locations in the Indian sector namely, Trivandrum (8.47°N, 76.91°E, Geomag.0.63°S, 0.3° dip), Waltair (17.7° N, 83.3°E, Geomag. 6.4°N, 20° dip), Bhopal (23.28°N, 77.34°E, Geomag.14.26°N, 33.2° dip), and Delhi (28.58°N, 77.21°E, Geomag.19.2°N, 43.4° dip) during a low sunspot year of 2004 are used to study the variabilities of the TEC. The day time TEC values are higher over Waltair and Bhopal compared to those at Trivandrum and Delhi. Considerable day-to-day variations in the diurnal values of TEC are observed at the anomaly crest locations. The observed GPS-TEC has been compared with the IRI-2007 model derived TEC considering three different options (IRI-2001, IRI-2001 corrected and Ne-Quick) available in the model for the topside electron density. The TEC derived with Ne-Quick and IRI-01 corrected options show better agreement with GPS-TEC while the TEC from IRI-01 method shows larger deviations. From the correlation analysis carried out between TEC value at 1300 h LT and solar indices parameters namely sunspot number (SSN), F10.7 and EUV, it is observed that the correlation is more during equinoctial months and less during summer months. The correlation coefficients observed over the anomaly locations, Bhopal and Delhi are lower compared to those at Trivandrum and Waltair.     

Equatorial total electron content (TEC) at low and high solar activity

Total electron content (TEC) derived from ionosonde data recorded at the station of Korhogo (Lat = 9.33°N, Long = 5.43°W, Dip = 0.67°S) are compared to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predicted TEC for high (1999) and low (1994) solar activity conditions. The results show that the model represents the diurnal variation of the TEC as well as a solar activity and seasonal dependence. This variation is closer to that of the ionosonde-inferred TEC at high solar activity. However, at low solar activity the IRI overestimates the ionosonde-inferred TEC. The relative deviation ΔTEC is more prominent in the equinoctial seasons during nighttime hours where it is as high as 70%. At daytime hours, the relative deviation is estimated to 0–30%.     

Anomalous enhancement of electric field derived from ionosonde data before the great Wenchuan earthquake

The seismo-ionospheric coupling is a hot topic of modern scientific research. One of the most reasonable mechanisms is the hypothesis of quasistatic electric field. With a preliminary analytical method, electric field in F2-region before Wenchuan earthquake was derived from the five lower latitude ground-based ionosondes: Lhasa (29.63°N, 91.17°E), Chongqing (29.50°N, 106.40°E), Kunming (25.00°N, 102.70°E), Guangzhou (23.15°N, 113.35°E) and Haikou (23.15°N, 110.35°E). The results show that there was an anomalous enhancement of electric field in F2-region close to the epicenter with maximal amplitude ∼2 mV/m (about 10 times of the background) at 15:00 LT on 9 May, which is in line with the amplitudes of anomalous electric field related to some previous earthquakes observed by satellites.     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.     

Towards a GPS-based TEC prediction model for Southern Africa with feed forward networks

In this paper, first results from a national Global Positioning System (GPS) based total electron content (TEC) prediction model over South Africa are presented. Data for 10 GPS receiver stations distributed through out the country were used to train a feed forward neural network (NN) over an interval of at most five years. In the NN training, validating and testing processes, five factors which are well known to influence TEC variability namely diurnal variation, seasonal variation, magnetic activity, solar activity and the geographic position of the GPS receivers were included in the NN model. The database consisted of 1-min data and therefore the NN model developed can be used to forecast TEC values 1 min in advance. Results from the NN national model (NM) were compared with hourly TEC values generated by the earlier developed NN single station models (SSMs) at Sutherland (32.38°S, 20.81°E) and Springbok (29.67°S, 17.88°E), to predict TEC variations over the Cape Town (33.95°S, 18.47°E) and Upington (28.41°S, 21.26°E) stations, respectively, during equinoxes and solstices. This revealed that, on average, the NM led to an improvement in TEC prediction accuracy compared to the SSMs for the considered testing periods.     

Modeling medium-scale TEC structures,observed by Belgian GPS receivers network

GALOCAD project “Development of a Galileo Local Component for the nowcasting and forecasting of atmospheric disturbances affecting the integrity of high precision Galileo applications” aims to perform a detailed study on ionospheric small- and medium-scale structures and to assess the influence of these structures on the reliability of Galileo precise positioning applications. GPS-derived TEC (total electron content) is obtained from the Belgium Dense Network (BDN), consisting of 67 permanent GPS stations. An empirical 3-D model is developed for studying these ionospheric structures. The model, named LLT model, described temporal variations of TEC in latitude/longitude frame (46°, 52°)N and (−1°, 11°)E. The spatial variations of TEC are modeled by Tchebishev base functions, while the temporal variations are described by a trigonometric basis. To fit the model to the data, the observed area is divided into bins with (1° × 1°) geographic scale and 6 min on time axis. LLT model is made flexible, with varying number of coefficients along each axis. This allows different degree of smoothing, which is the key element of the present approach. Model runs with higher number of coefficients, capturing in details medium-scale TEC structures are subtracted from results obtained with smaller number of coefficients; the latter represent the background ionosphere. The residual structures are localized and followed as they travel across the observed area. In this way, the size, velocity, and direction of the irregular structures are obtained.