空管灾害诱因分析及监测指标体系的构建

从操作人、空管设备、空管环境和管理的角度对空管的致灾诱因进行了详细分析。按照科学性、实用性、关联性和可操作性的原则,筛选出一组监测指标,在考虑空管行业数据来源的情况下,提出了现阶段和理想情况下的监测指标体系,目的在于通过对空管安全状态进行监测和诊断,及时采取预警和预控对策,促进空管系统处于安全状态,降低事故率。     

加强机载交通和地形避撞告警功能提高自治飞行能力

从飞机的安全间隔保障和空中避撞告警，以及飞机的地形避撞和近地警告两个问题的现有手段和正在发展中的某些新概念、新技术出发，说明交通和地形信息资源的开发利用，有助于更好地增强机上信息环境，发挥交通和避撞的告警和显示功能，提高自治飞行（ＡｕｔｏｎｏｍｏｕｓＦｌｉｇｈｔ）能力；在未来空域环境中过渡到飞机避撞责任由驾驶员和管制员双方分担。重点介绍机载间隔保障系统（ＡＳＡＳ）概念，其所用的广播式自动相关监视（ＡＤＳ－Ｂ）和驾驶舱交通信息显示（ＣＤＴＩ）技术，此外也介绍预测型近地警告和利用地形数据库的仿前视地形复现技术。     

Wake vortex encounter severity for rotorcraft in final approach

The Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) predicts that European air traffic may nearly triple by 2020. The growth in air traffic is already an increasing problem with capacity at some airports becoming limited due to congestion. This could be alleviated by providing additional passenger capacity at hubs through the introduction of rotorcraft using new IFR procedures and operating simultaneously but independently of the fixed-wing traffic. These Simultaneous Non-Interfering Operations (SNIOps) will be enabled by a ‘reconfiguration’ of the airspace, taking advantage of new navigational and air traffic management systems. SNIOp's raise critical safety questions for rotorcraft wake vortex encounters (WVE's) and will require consideration of the longitudinal and lateral aircraft separation and the locations of the rotorcraft FATO's (Final Approach and Take-Off areas). This paper presents analysis from work carried out as part of the Framework 6 project ‘OPTIMAL’ including the development of predictive methodology and analysis for rotorcraft WVE's, using a severity rating scale. In particular, scenarios are considered where the rotorcraft is following precision glideslopes of up to 12° in both good and degraded visual conditions. Handling qualities criteria have already been found to be well suited to investigating severity of an encounter. Within this framework, draft boundaries are proposed for assessing the severity of an encounter. Furthermore, the results have shown a pilot may be able to recover from an encounter, but the question of whether the required navigational precision would be compromised and a go-around required is also addressed.     

Federal Radionavigation Plan-pie in the sky for civil aviation?

The Federal Radionavigation Plan states that all present navigation and landing guidance facilities will be retired starting in 2005, and full dependence for these functions will be placed on augmented GPS. Once this is implemented, civil aviation will be totally vulnerable to terrorist jamming of the GPS signals over wide earth areas with widespread disruption of air traffic and potential disasters. It has become apparent that the use of GPS/GNSS is complex and expensive for the required civil aviation functions. It is clear that a different system form is needed for civil aviation, a redundant satellite/ground based system that will prevent it from being a jamming target while providing ATC surveillance, area navigation, collision warning/avoidance, high-speed data link and Category I landing guidance globally, plus precision Category III guidance in the terminal areas as needed. Such a system will be described     

对流天气下空域通行能力短缺预警及响应综述

对流天气是空域通行能力短缺的主要原因之一。为了解决这一问题,需要通过理论和实践创新,建立对流天气条件下空域通行能力短缺的预警和应急响应机制,提高空域资源配置效率。从对流天气影响信息解释转换、容量评估与预警及空域响应预案三个方面梳理了国内外研究现状,总体趋势是:对流天气逐渐通过各种解释转换模型被量化为对空域和航路的影响;对流天气下空域通行能力主要受管制员工作负荷的限制,只有准确评估对流天气下的工作负荷,才能做出正确的通行能力短缺预警;对流天气响应方案,逐渐由地面等待、增加同航迹间隔、返航、备降等高耗能的流量控制措施,转向以灵活使用空域预案确保改航方案的实施方向发展。课题的应用前景是可以化解对流天气下交通需求与空域通行能力不平衡的矛盾,提高预警准确度,减少响应前置时间,提高流量管理与容量管理协同运行的效率,减轻对流天气造成的航班延误,减少航空器运行成本,实现节能减排的要求。     

某型运输机机载防撞系统交联方案研究

为了减少和避免飞机相撞的危险,飞机上需要加装机载防撞系统,但是机载防撞系统不是一个独立的系统,需要与其他机载设备交联。通过分析机载防撞系统交联关系以及与机载设备的接口特性,给出了某型运输机机载防撞系统与原机设备交联的实施方案。     

无人机防相撞空中威胁态势的探测与告警研究

空中威胁态势探测与告警是无人机飞行防相撞预警的关键。为此,提出一种基于航迹预测的无人机防相撞空中威胁态势探测与告警方法。在该方法中,先采用滑动窗多项式拟合法对入侵机航迹进行动态预测,然后,在航迹预测基础上,利用无人机与入侵机飞行信息,建立针对入侵机的无人机动态避撞区,最后,结合静态保护区原理,对特定飞行场景下的无人机飞行冲突趋势、空中危险接近趋势和飞行碰撞趋势的探测与告警。仿真实例验证了所提出方法的有效性,也验证了其用于无人机飞行防相撞预警的可行性。     

Preoperational testing of data link-based air traffic managementsystems in Magadan, far East Russia

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has been used in many ways which were unimagined by its original planners and implementers. This paper discusses one such application; the surveillance of commercial aircraft in a developing airspace environment. GPS provides system users with the ability to determine their own position with an accuracy, reliability and cost that is unprecedented. Voice procedures augmented by radar have been the primary tools for air traffic surveillance since the end of World War II. But for some countries the equipage of aircraft with GPS and a data link capable of carrying position reports to the ATC authorities is providing a viable alternative to long-range secondary radar systems. In the summer and fail of 1995, ARINC installed and demonstrated equipment in Magadan, Russia which permits air traffic controllers of MagadanAeroControl to monitor GPS position reports generated by aircraft as far away as Canada and the South Pacific. The position reports were displayed against maps and flight tracks. This equipment has clearly demonstrated an alternative technology for the upgrading of the ATC system in Siberia and other remote areas     

Safety assessment of approximate segregated parallel operation on closely spaced parallel runways

With the continuous growth of air traffic flow, some airports in China or other countries begin to construct Closely Spaced Parallel Runways (CSPR) to meet the capacity requirement of civil aviation. In this paper, the simulation and calculation method of flight trajectory is developed, as well as the collision risk calculation method and wake vortex encounter risk calculation method. New methods for departure and go-around procedures are proposed to achieve approximate segregated parallel operation in an attempt to obtain approximately the same results on closely spaced parallel runways as on widely spaced parallel runways. By comparing with the independent parallel departure and segregated parallel operation in ICAO Doc. 9643, it is found that the lateral separation between aircraft in this proposal is not less than the separations in the other two cases. Based on the simulation calculation of flight trajectories under different conditions, the probabilities of collision conflict and encountering wake vortex are lower than those in current operation plan. The proposed plan has no special requirements in pilot operation, control command procedures, airport facilities, or meteorological observation and prediction, so it is convenient to promote and implement at the airports with closely spaced parallel runways.     

基于EVENT模型的垂直间隔碰撞风险研究

空中交通流量逐年快速增长,迫切需要提高空域容量和空域利用率,缩小间隔标准可以快速有效地缓解流量增长和减少延误,因此必须研究不同间隔标准下的碰撞风险,从而确定缩小间隔标准的安全性。建立了基于EVENT的垂直碰撞风险模型,推导出了相应的计算方法;并运用该模型分析了垂直间隔对碰撞风险的影响。结果证明,高空空域缩小垂直间隔标准后的碰撞风险满足安全目标等级的要求,而且随着流量的增长,缩小垂直间隔标准后的碰撞风险在最近15年内保持稳定的安全水平。     

基于目视间隔条件下的碰撞风险分析

为研究目视间隔条件下进近过程中前后两飞机的碰撞风险问题,通过Reich碰撞模型和碰撞风险模型,引入目视误差作为影响因素之一,建立基于目视间隔条件下的风险评估模型.从纵向、横向、垂向三个维度分析前后两飞机碰撞的概率,求得目视条件下进近两机碰撞的概率,以此作为风险分析的结果.计算结果表明,利用模型计算出的碰撞风险符合国际民航组织规定的航空器空中碰撞概率规定值.故而可证明,目视间隔和目视进近可作为一种安全的空中交通管制运行模式缩小安全间距,提高空域利用率,增加飞行流量.     

An evolutionary computational framework for capacity-safety trade-off in an air transportation network

Airspace safety and airport capacity are two key challenges to sustain the growth in Air Transportation. In this paper, we model the Air Transportation Network as two sub-networks of airspace and airports, such that the safety and capacity of the overall Air Transportation network emerge from the interaction between the two. We propose a safety-capacity trade-off approach,using a computational framework, where the two networks can inter-act and the trade-off between capacity and safety in an Air Transport Network can be established. The framework comprise of an evolutionary computation based air traffic scenario generation using a flow capacity estimation module(for capacity), Collision risk estimation module(for safety) and an air traffic simulation module(for evaluation). The proposed methodology to evolve air traffic scenarios such that it minimizes collision risk for given capacity estimation was tested on two different air transport network topologies(random and small-world) with the same number of airports. Experimental results indicate that though airspace collision risk increases almost linearly with the increasing flow(flow intensity) in the corresponding airport network, the critical flow depend on the underlying network configuration. It was also found that, in general, the capacity upper bound depends not only on the connectivity among airports and their individual performances but also the configuration of waypoints and mid-air interactions among conflicts. Results also show that airport network can accommodate more traffic in terms of capacity but the corresponding airspace network cannot accommodate the resulting traffic flow due to the bounds on collision risk.     

空中交通相依网络的脆弱性研究

机场、航路和管制扇区构成空中交通相依网络,节点在受到扰动时,网络运输性能下降,引发网络脆弱性。提出一种空中交通相依网络脆弱性的度量方法,首先构建机场网络、航路网络和管制扇区网络3个层网络,基于空中交通管理规则与层网络间的逻辑连接关系,建立空中交通相依网络模型。在随机扰动和蓄意扰动节点两种不同失效模式下,采用最大连通度和结构熵两个指标,并给出了相应算法,分析相依网络的结构脆弱性;创建流量熵和交通流损失比指标,设计了相应算法,研究相依网络的功能脆弱性。研究结果表明,随机扰动对空中交通相依网络影响更大;网络的结构脆弱源与功能脆弱源是机场网络;网络的脆弱性与层网络间的连接方式和层网络的交通量不匹配有关。     

基于Event的垂直碰撞风险改进模型研究

空中交通流量的快速增长,导致空域资源紧张和大量航班延误。使用新航行技术缩小间隔标准可以有效地缓解上述问题。因此,对航路的碰撞风险进行评估具有重要意义。传统Event模型的碰撞模板是一个长方体模板,本文在前人研究的基础上提出了用椭球体代替长方体碰撞模板的思想,并对飞机穿越垂直间隔片的概率重新进行计算。结果表明,在相同条件下改进后的Event碰撞风险模型是原模型碰撞概率的53.38%,改进的碰撞风险评估模型更加精确合理。     

自由飞行下基于冲突区域的最小安全间距研究

自由飞行是解决空域拥挤、节省飞行时间的有效方式,为保障飞行安全,对自由飞行下的最小安全间距进行研究.针对自由飞行空域中处于不同高度且有垂直运动的航空器,构建了一种圆柱形的冲突区域,从而建立了基于冲突区域的碰撞风险模型.对于给定的安全目标水平,利用爬山法对最小安全间距进行求解.算例验证了模型的可行性.     

基于空中交通管制运行品质的扇区容量评估

扇区容量反映的是扇区空中交通管制运行品质诸多要素综合寻优下的流量水平,目前将扇区管制员工作负荷阈值映射为扇区容量的评估方法存在片面性。为改善扇区容量评估方法,以成都进近南扇为研究实例,采集198组实际运行数据建立样本集,确立了涵盖空中交通流密度、管制运行安全性能、管制运行效率性能及管制员工作负荷等4类因子的管制运行品质量化指标,并基于主成分分析法实现了扇区管制运行品质综合评价,经函数拟合确定扇区容量为29架次/h,新方法更具科学性、客观性。     

空中交通管制员人格特征分析

采用卡特尔16种人格因素问卷(16PF)对国内管制员进行了大范围人格特征测试。通过测试结果分析,证实目前中国民航管制员群体具备多项有利于管制工作的特征,但也在聪慧性、独立性、紧张焦虑等方面存在着一定的问题。通过对不同性别及不同年龄测试结果的比较分析,总结出不同群体管制员的个性特征差异,为调整和改进管制员培养计划提供了理论依据。     

Aircraft emission research within ISTC project

This research is aimed at obtaining experimental data on contamination of the atmosphere by emissions from aircraft engines in cruise flight conditions, to establish and improve models of the physical and chemical processes which take place in the aircraft wake and in the general zone of air traffic corridors. An Su-24 ‘sounder’ aircraft equipped with an air sampling and collection system has been established to obtain the necessary atmospheric samples in flight, and procedures have been developed for performing the research flights. Techniques have also been developed for chemical analysis of the samples.     

空管人因失效概率的THERP-CREAM预测方法

管制员的人为差错是导致航空器空中相撞的主要诱因,对空管人因失效概率进行有效预测是一个难题。为此,提出一种基于人误率预测技术（THERP）与认知可靠性和失误率分析模型CREAM）的组合空管人因失效概率预测方法,基于THERP 技术二叉树模型构建事故发展基本脉络,再基于CREAM 方法对各个人误行为触发概率进行修正,从而得出更为准确的概率预测结果。通过相似事故的对比分析,结果表明：本文提出的预测方法可识别关键性的事故影响因子,以便制定有针对性的管控措施,从而为研究预测空管人因失效概率提供了一种有效的分析手段。     

自由飞行环境下碰撞风险研究

自由飞行是解决航路拥挤问题的一种有效方式,因此在自由飞行环境下对飞行碰撞风险进行研究显得尤为重要。提出了自由飞行环境下影响飞机定位误差的主要因素;以概率论为工具,建立了自由飞行环境下的碰撞风险评估模型;分别量化评估了各个主要因素对自由飞行环境下碰撞风险的实际影响度。得到的评估结果表明,碰撞风险模型能有效地对自由飞行环境下的碰撞风险进行评估,验证了模型的可行性。