Modeling international cooperation for space exploration

Space exploration into the twenty-first century is contingent upon the ability of states to forge an appropriate vehicle for international cooperation. A theoretical framework that explains international cooperation in space exploration is proposed. This framework encompasses scientific, technological, political, and economic initial conditions, state and nonstate political actors, and models of cooperation that explain how initial conditions and actors interact to realize cooperative outcomes. It is hypothesized that the prevailing initial conditions favor certain political actors over others which, in turn, promote a specific model of cooperation. Cooperative policy outcomes are examined and assessed vis-à-vis case studies of cooperation in space exploration. On this basis, policy recommendations that engender effective cooperative outcomes in space exploration are suggested.     

Article

This is a slightly edited version of the Executive Summary of a joint report on cooperation in space science produced by the Space Studies Board of the USA National Research Council and the European Space Science Committee of the European Science Foundation. Using analysis of 13 case-study missions it reviews 30 years of joint missions and makes 14 recommendations based on its findings. These include the importance of setting a scientific rationale for each mission and of ensuring that objectives are shared by engineers and others involved in it, the need for independent periodic assessments and that all agreements should specify the scope, expectations and obligations of the respective agencies and relevant partners.The USA and Europe have been cooperating in space science for more than three decades. This history of cooperation has survived significant geopolitical, economic and technological changes, such as the end of the Cold War, the pressure of budget reductions and the increasing focus on economic competition and the global marketplace. Both Europe and the USA have learned from one another and acquired a knowledge base as well as an infrastructure to implement joint missions and research activities. More importantly, the decades of cooperative space research efforts between the USA and Europe have built a community of scientists whose joint scientific exchanges have established a heritage of cooperation on both sides of the Atlantic.The scientific fruits of this heritage are plainly evident in achievements such as a signature for supermassive black holes provided by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST); the first views of the solar atmosphere and corona illuminated by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO); the sharing of expensive research facilities on the International Microgravity Laboratory (IML); and the impressive data on ocean altimetry from the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX-POSEIDON) mission, which is significantly improving our understanding of global ocean circulation.There were no guideposts for the emergence of space science cooperation between Europe and the USA. In the process of introducing new procedures and improvements to facilitate cooperation, missteps occurred, and there were political, economic and scientific losses. This report takes stock of US–European history in cooperative space endeavors, the lessons it has demonstrated and the opportunities it suggests to enhance and improve future US–European cooperative efforts in the sciences conducted in space.     

A socio-economic evaluation of the lunar environment and resources: II. Energy for the selenosphere

This first of several study papers, based on a fundamental paper presented in 1972, provides an independent conceptual analysis and evaluation of the lunar environment as industrial base and habitat. A selenosphere system strategy is outlined. The underlying concept is that of one or several lunar industrial zones for resource extraction and on-surface processing, integrated with a circumlunar zero-g processing capability, serving markets in geolunar space. A classification of lunar elements by utilization category is presented. Lunar oxygen is a prime candidate for being an initial economic “drawing card”, because of its value for fast transportation in geolunar space, requiring significantly fewer ships for equal transfer capability per unit time than electric transports which, however, have value, especially between geosynchronous and lunar orbit. The reduced development difficulties of controlled fusion outside the atmosphere and its advantages for extracting oxygen and other elements in quantity are summarized. Examples of lunar cycle management as fundamental exoindustrial requirement for economic resource enhancement are presented. The principal initial socio-economic value of lunar industry lies in the use of lunar resources for exoindustrial products and operations designed to accelerate, intensify and diversify Earth-related benefits. In the longer run, lunar settlements are a highly suitable proving ground for studying and testing the complex matrix of technological, biological, cultural, social and psychological aspects that must be understood and manageable before large settlements beyond Earth can have a realistic basis for viability. The lunar environment is more suitable for experimentation and comparatively more “forgiving” in case of failures than is orbital space.     

Technology foresight in practice: A proposal for Turkish space vision

We are witnessing a fundamental change in the perception of space-related issues. Once a symbol of technological competition between opposing political systems, space activities have become a part of everyday life and an indispensable means for states to achieve economic, scientific, political and social goals. This Report addresses the space activities of Turkey, a latecomer to space challenge but a country rapidly progressing in this field. In this context, major space-related policies and projects are first discussed. The current status of the Turkish space industry is then defined through SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). The analysis is informed by a May 2012 workshop was held in Turkey at the Defense Sciences Institute, which brought together a range of interested actors to discuss Turkey's space policy. The workshop was followed up six months later with a survey of a larger group of participants. This Report lays out the findings of these two events, articulating the strengths and weaknesses for Turkey's space aspirations, and also a proposal for the country's future space ambitions. Strategies and policies that will be supportive in achieving the proposed space vision are also introduced.     

Globalization, commercial space and spacepower in the USA

Economic and commercial spacepower is about market dominance and control. The USA is still the largest investor in space in the world and the technological and commercial leader in many areas but its leadership is being challenged. When other nations have similar capabilities, control becomes a problem, assuming, as is the case with space, that control is also a critical issue in security. Moreover, exerting spacepower may be inconsistent with expanded commercial developments in space, raising investment risks and creating incentives for foreign competitors. To the extent that global market opportunity is denied by restrictive commercial policies, spacepower from a purely international economic competitive perspective is diminished. Though it is encouraging that the US commercial space policies have been in Presidential Documents over the past 20 years, they have been unintentionally undermined to a large extent by other policies, with security almost always trumping commerce. This paper examines the way globalization and commercial space developments have changed the nature of spacepower and suggests that the USA's reactions to these changes have not thus far served it well.     

An economic assessment of space solar power as a source of electricity for space-based activities

Those in the space community interested in deploying space solar power (SSP) need to know whether it would make economic sense. This article aims to develop a conceptual model of the economic value of SSP as a source of power to in-space activities, such as spacecraft and space stations. We offer several estimates of the value based on interviews and published data, discuss technological innovations that may compete with or be complementary to SSP, and consider alternative institutional arrangements for government and the private sector to provide SSP.     

Satellite communications and the Internet: implications for the outer space treaty

The speedily expanding Internet is in the process of transforming the technological, economic, and policy bases for nation-state regulation of telecommunications, including space-based satellite networks. Deployment of the packet-switched Internet has accelerated the liberalization of telecommunications markets and has led to far-reaching regulatory restructuring and policy shifts regarding state ownership and control of networks and information flows. As space-based GMPCS networks become integral parts of the globalizing Internet infrastructure, the state-centric legal paradigm requiring state “authorization and continuing supervision” of space activities by “non-governmental entities” stipulated under Article VI of the OST and associated treaties forming the outer space legal regime will be called increasingly into question. This paper examines the technological, economic/trade, and security issues that question whether the existing state-centric paradigm for regulating Internel-based GMPCS satellite systems will remain in legal phase with emerging liberalized regulatory regimes for terrestrial Internet-based infractructures.     

Improving Africa’s benefit from space applications: The European-African partnership

There is little overview of how space applications are utilized by African actors and how cooperation between Africa and Europe is organized and conducted. This article aims briefly to provide such an overview and concretely to make recommendations for institutional actors in European-African partnerships on the use of space applications for sustainable development. The Africa-EU partnership is analysed from a political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal standpoint and respective policy recommendations are drafted on this basis. No other continent can benefit more from space applications than Africa. It will be partnerships like the one between Europe and Africa that will be crucial for realizing this great potential.     

Findings and recommendations: The space station configuration and its relation to mission priorities and user requirements

Japan's Consultative Committee on Long Term Policy was established within the Space Activities Commission to consider how the country's space activities should proceed. The Committee was asked to take a long-term viewpoint, considering the rapid changes in both domestic and overseas space activities. This report is an edited version (and unofficial translation) of the Committee's report, published in May 1987. It outlines the significance of space activities for Japan, considers how they have developed during this century, forecasts development after the year 2000, and presents proposals for the execution of Japan's space development.     

Japan's future in space

Japan's Consultative Committee on Long Term Policy was established within the Space Activities Commission to consider how the country's space activities should proceed. The Committee was asked to take a long-term viewpoint, considering the rapid changes in both domestic and overseas space activities. This report is an edited version (and unofficial translation) of the Committee's report, published in May 1987. It outlines the significance of space activities for Japan, considers how they have developed during this century, forecasts development after the year 2000, and presents proposals for the execution of Japan's space development.     

Defining a European space research policy: The role of the European Space Science Committee

The willingness of the European Union (EU) to acquire an important position by defining a well articulated space policy for Europe requires a redefinition of the roles of the various actors of this policy. This has been demonstrated at the last ESA Ministerial Conference despite the financial difficulties encountered by all spacefaring European countries. The European Space Science Committee (ESSC), an associated Committee of the European Science Foundation (ESF), actively participated in the elaboration of such a policy by presenting the point of view of the space scientific community and making recommendations to ensure that scientific space research is appropriately accounted for in overall European space policy. The ESSC is briefly described along with its activities and contributions to the definition of a European space policy.     

Human development and the conquest of space

Space age ethics are to be distinguished as a separate set of ethical concepts for several reasons: outer space constitutes a unifying element for mankind; the unique space environment has an international statute; and the impact of space science and the utilization of space technology will always have both positive and negative international consequences and repercussions. Its main objective is an immaterial output-related activity and much of its waste is equally immaterial. Space technology carries another hazard with it - the danger of domination by extrovert cultures. Proper development of space technology requires international cooperation, scientific creativity and technological innovation combined with sociopolitical, economic and cultural aims and objectives and ethical values. Norms and objectives have to take into account religious concepts, humanistic viewpoints and sociocultural criteria. The ethics of the conquest of space have to consider the benefit of all mankind and that of each single individual, group and society as complementary and of equal importance.     

Russian space commercialization - getting the banks involved

While the world market for space goods and services has grown enormously and continues to do so, Russia's meagre share of it is out of all proportion to its technological and intellectual base. This was initially the fault of its rigid political system, which has made it hard for companies to adapt to a market economy. This viewpoint argues that Russia's banks, which have played a major role in the country's economic reforms, should be encouraged to invest in its space industry. In particular they could finance the ‘space education’ of the business community and fund surveys and feasibility studies. In the long term this could generate large profits and would improve their standing in the world. Ultimately they might join specialist international bank associations set up to finance cooperative ventures.     

The United Nations Programme on Space Applications: Status and direction for 2010

The United Nations Programme on Space Applications was established in 1971 to assist countries in making full use of the benefits of space technology and its applications for social and economic development. Since its inception the programme has organized numerous training courses, workshops, seminars and conferences and provided funding support for more than 10?000 experts, mainly from developing countries, to participate in those activities. The programme has continuously evolved over four decades, taking into account the latest developments in the field of space activities, to best serve the capacity-building needs of countries and to help ensure that space-based solutions contribute to improving life on Earth. This report describes the status and direction of the UN Programme on Space Applications as recommended for approval by the UN’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS) Scientific and Technical Subcommittee at its 47th session held in Vienna in February 2010.     

The UN space treaties and the common heritage principle

The Moon Treaty, adopted by the UN's Outer Space Committee by consensus in 1979, has never been ratified by the major space powers — although it is essentially only an elaboration of the non-controversial Outer-Space Treaty. The author discusses the international political and economic climate of the time to explain the West's apparent withdrawal into self-interest. The controversy over the exploitation of lunar resources is preventing agreement on the other, more important issues covered by the Moon Treaty. The author argues that the successful INMARSAT organization could serve as a model for cooperation in exploiting the Moon's resources. A greater degree of understanding, humility, realism and generosity is needed before the problems can be resolved.     

The PCA Rules for dispute settlement in outer space: A significant step forward

Outer space activities have evolved significantly. While they were previously the exclusive domain of a restricted number of states, now thanks to technological advances and the easing of governmental restrictions, space activities are carried out on a much larger scale and involve subjects of both a governmental and non-governmental nature. Furthermore, the commercial uses of outer space are making space business increasingly profitable and attractive to potential investors. As the economic value of outer space activities, as well as the number of space actors grows, it is nearly inevitable that international disputes related to the use of outer space will occur. Until recently, international space law contained little dedicated machinery to settle international outer space-related disputes. This absence significantly weakened the applicability and enforceability of space law and contributed to a climate of uncertainty. In order to address these issues, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) adopted the Optional Rules for Arbitration of Disputes Relating to Outer Space Activities on 6 December 2011. The PCA Space Rules represent a significant development in the field of space law because they provide a voluntary and binding dispute settlement method accessible to all space actors and modeled on the specific legal and economic characteristics of space activities. This paper describes the genesis of the PCA Space Rules, assesses their content and innovative character, evaluates their possible implications for the settlement of outer space disputes, and argues that they should be positively received by the outer space community.     

The role of the united nations in promoting international cooperation in peaceful uses of outer space

The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) was established in 1959 by the United Nations General Assembly in order to review and foster international cooperation in the peaceful uses of outer space and to consider legal issues arising from the exploration of outer space. Since its establishment, the Committee has addressed such issues as benefits from space activities, the definition and delimitation of outer space and the use of the geostationary orbit, implications of remote sensing, space sciences, space-based communications, navigation and meteorological systems, as well as use of nuclear power sources in outer space, space debris and spin-off benefits of space technology. At its session in 1996, a symposium on the ‘Utilization of micro- and small satellites for the expansion of low-cost space activities, taking into particular account the needs of developing countries’ was organized by COSPAR and IAF to complement discussions on this theme. It was noted at the symposium that the increasing number of small satellites, in particular the proposed introduction of multi-satellite ‘constellations’ at low orbits, would result in concentrations of satellite mass at certain regions of space around the Earth. Special provisions would be needed to minimize the probability of satellite breakups and collisions which might create more space debris and compromise the future of spaceflight.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs,a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

Russia's place in space: a home view

This paper analyses Russia's view of its involvement in international space cooperation and the Western concerns associated with this. In the current economic and political situation the Russian administration and space industry are eager to take part in all kinds of international space activity, which is seen as an opportunity to sustain the country's scientific and technological potential. Russia claims a fair share in both commercial space operations and joint space development programmes, appropriate to its capabilities as the world's number two space power. Western concerns about Russian interference in its policy and the problems involved in dealing with Russia should be solvable and are less dangerous than reverting to a situation of confrontation.