Possible influence of solar extreme events and related geomagnetic disturbances on human cardio-vascular state: Results of collaborative Bulgarian–Azerbaijani studies

This collaborative study is based on the analysis and comparison of results of coordinated experimental investigations conducted in Bulgaria and Azerbaijan for revealing a possible influence of solar activity changes and related geomagnetic activity variations on the human cardio-vascular state. Arterial blood pressure and heart rate of 86 healthy volunteers were measured on working days during a period of comparatively high solar and geomagnetic activity (2799 measurements in autumn 2001 and spring 2002) in Sofia. Daily experimental investigations of parameters of cardio-vascular health state were performed in Azerbaijan with a permanent group of examined persons. Heart rate and electrocardiograms were digitally registered (in total 1532 records) for seven functionally healthy persons on working days and Saturdays, in the Laboratory of Heliobiology at the Medical Center INAM in Baku, from 15.07.2006 to 13.11.2007. Obtained digital recordings were subjected to medical, statistical and spectral analyses. Special attention was paid to effects of solar extreme events, particularly those of November 2001 and December 2006. The statistical method of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis were applied to check the significance of the influence of geomagnetic activity on the cardio-vascular parameters under consideration. Results revealed statistically significant increments for the mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure values of the group with geomagnetic activity increase. Arterial blood pressure values started increasing two days prior to geomagnetic storms and kept their high values up to two days after the storms. Heart rate reaction was ambiguous and not significant for healthy persons examined (for both groups) under conditions with geomagnetic activity changes. It is concluded that heart rate for healthy persons at middle latitudes can be considered as a more stable physiological parameter which is not so sensitive to environmental changes while the dynamics of arterial blood pressure reveals a compensatory reaction of the human organism for adaptation.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

1991年3月太阳活动引起的地磁扰动

利用北京白家疃台和马道峪台的地磁资料分析了1991年3月下旬太阳活动引起的24－27日的磁暴，从中纬记录看，这次磁暴有其特殊的形态：即急始幅度特别大，磁暴最强活动是急始后即刻开始的极区暴影响而产 生的：磁暴过程中多个时段出现脉动，其中以周期为650秒左右的脉动尤为明显；其极化方向主要表现为左旋偏振，同时夹有右旋偏振，有时则无明显规律，谱分析的结果表明，整个磁暴功率谱呈幂律P(f)=f^-2,0分布，对引起这次磁暴可能的行星际扰动进行了讨论。     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.     

Detection of the ionospheric disturbances on GPS-TEC using Differential Rate Of TEC (DROT) algorithm

The solar, geomagnetic, gravitational and seismic activities can cause spatial and temporal (hourly, diurnal, seasonal and annual) variabilities of the ionosphere. Main observable ionospheric parameters such as Total Electron Content (TEC) can be used to quantify these. TEC is the total number of electrons on a ray path crossing the atmosphere. The network of world-wide Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers provide a cost-effective solution in estimating TEC over a significant proportion of global land mass. This study is focused on the analysis of the variations of ionosphere over a midlatitude region using GPS-TEC estimates for three Sun Spot Numbers (SSN) periods. The investigation is based on a fast and automatic variability detection algorithm, Differential Rate Of TEC (DROT). The algorithm is tested using literature data on disturbances generated by a geomagnetic activity, a Solar Flare, a Medium Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (MSTID), a Large Scale TID (LSTID) and an earthquake. Very good agreement with the results in the literature is found. DROT is applied to IONOLAB-TEC estimates from nine Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN Active) stations over Turkey to detect the any wave-like oscillations, sudden disturbances and other irregularities during December, March, June, September months for 2010, 2011, 2012 years. It is observed that DROT algorithm is capable of detecting both small and large scale variability due to climatic, gravitational, geomagnetic and solar activities in all layers of ionosphere. The highest DROT values are observed in 2010 during winter months. In higher solar activity years of 2011 and 2012, DROT is able to indicate both seasonal variability and severe changes in ionosphere due to increased number of geomagnetic storms and local seismic activities.     

The impact of large solar events on the total electron content of the ionosphere at mid latitudes

Ionospheric disturbances associated with solar activity may occur via two basic mechanisms. The first is related to the direct impact on the ionosphere of EUV photons from a flare, and the second by prompt electric field penetration into the magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms. In this paper we examine the possibility that these two mechanisms may have an impact at mid latitudes by calculating the total electron content (TEC) from GPS stations in Mexico during several large X-ray flares. We have found that indeed large, complex flares, which are well located, may affect the mid latitude ionosphere. In fact, in the solar events of July 14, 2000 and April 2001 storms, ionospheric disturbances were observed to increase up to 138 and 150 TECu, respectively, due to the influence of EUV photons. Also, during the solar events of July 2000, April 2001, Halloween 2003, January 2005 and December 2006, there are large ionospheric disturbances (up to 393 TECu in the Halloween Storms), due to prompt penetration electric field, associated with CME producing geomagnetic storm.     

Effects of geomagnetic storms on the bottomside ionospheric F region

The geomagnetic storm is a complex process of solar wind/magnetospheric origin. The variability of the ionospheric parameters increases substantially during geomagnetic storms initiated by solar disturbances. Various features of geomagnetic storm act at various altitudes in the ionosphere and neutral atmosphere. The paper deals with variability of the electron density of the ionospheric bottomside F region at every 10 km of altitude during intense geomagnetic storms with attention paid mainly to the distribution of the F1 region daytime ionisation. We have analysed all available electron density profiles from some European middle latitude stations (Chilton, Pruhonice, Ebro, Arenosillo, Athens) for 36 events that occurred in different seasons and under different levels of solar activity (1995–2003). Selected events consist of both depletion and increase of the F2 region electron density. For European higher middle and middle latitude the F1 region response to geomagnetic storm was found to be negative (decrease of electron density) independent on the storm effect on the F2 region. For lower middle latitude the F1 response is weaker and less regular. Results of the analysis also show that the maximum of the storm effect may sometimes occur below the height of the maximum of electron density (NmF2).     

Helio-geomagnetic influence in cardiological cases

The effects of the energetic phenomena of the Sun, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the Earth’s ionosphere–magnetosphere, through the solar wind, are the sources of the geomagnetic disturbances and storms collectively known as Space Weather. The research on the influence of Space Weather on biological and physiological systems is open. In this work we study the Space Weather   impact on Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS) distinguishing between ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (STE–ACS) and non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE–ACS) cases. We compare detailed patient records from the 2nd Cardiologic Department of the General Hospital of Nicaea (Piraeus, Greece) with characteristics of geomagnetic storms (_DST${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathit{ST}}$), solar wind speed and statistics of flares and CMEs which cover the entire solar cycle 23 (1997–2007). Our results indicate a relationship of ACS to helio-geomagnetic activity as the maximum of the ACS cases follows closely the maximum of the solar cycle. Furthermore, within very active periods, the ratio NSTE–ACS to STE–ACS, which is almost constant during periods of low to medium activity, changes favouring the NSTE–ACS. Most of the ACS cases exhibit a high degree of association with the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms; a smaller, yet significant, part was found associated with periods of fast solar wind without a storm.     

Seasonal variations of storm-time TEC at European middle latitudes

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements of the Total Electron Content (TEC) from local (Dourbes, 50.1°N, 04.6°E) and European IGS (International GNSS Service) stations were used to obtain the TEC changes during the geomagnetic storms of the latest solar activity cycle. A common epoch analysis, with respect to geomagnetic storm intensity, season, and latitude, was performed on data representing nearly 300 storm events. In general, the storm-time behaviour of TEC shows clear positive and negative phases, relative to the non-storm (median) behaviour, with amplitudes that tend to increase during more intense storms. The most pronounced positive phase is observed during winter, while the strongest and yet shortest negative phase is detected during equinox. Average storm-time patterns in the TEC behaviour are deduced for potential use in ionosphere prediction services.     

Statistical study of the time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms in Taoyuan,Taiwan

We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances.     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

SMY和第21太阳周期间地磁及太阳活动特点的分析

本文比较第17—21太阳周黑子数、地磁A_p指数、各周极大年≥2级耀斑数、磁暴数及第一、二、三大磁暴情况;分析了≥2级耀斑数及磁暴的分布。21周3级耀斑对应磁暴比例低于19、20周,Ⅳ型及米波射电爆发是产生磁暴的重要条件。进一步分析了21周最大磁暴、最大射电爆发引起的磁暴,最严重的电离层短波通讯干扰及有明亮物质抛射的大耀斑、双带大耀斑引起的磁暴等典型例子。最后对SMY期间22个无黑子耀斑作了分析,它们可能引起中小幅度的磁暴。      

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年,冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数,预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量,需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发,建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件,利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数,分析了其与地磁暴期间ap,Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系,给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征,为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.      

Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.     

地磁扰动期间日本Kokubunji站电离层的扰动特征分析

利用日本Kokubunji站(139.5°E,35.5°N)1959年1月到2004年12月共46年的F2层临界频率foF2参数,统计分析了Kokubunji站电离层F2层峰值电子浓度NmF2随地磁活动、太阳活动、季节和地方时变化的形态特征.结果表明,总体来看,磁暴期间Kokubunji站电离层响应以正暴为主,其中在太阳高年夏季为负暴,冬季为正暴,春秋季以负暴为主但幅度较小;在太阳低年夏季以正暴为主,冬季为正暴,春秋季以正暴为主.NmF2扰动与ap指数在夏季太阳高年负相关,在冬季无论太阳高年低年均为正相关,春秋季中4月和9月在太阳高年类似夏季,3月和10月在太阳低年类似冬季.电离层最大负相扰动对最大地磁活动的延迟时间约为12～15 h;正相扰动的延迟时间则分别为3 h和10 h.地磁活跃期间地方时黄昏后到午夜前倾向于正相扰动,清晨倾向于负相扰动.      

强磁暴、能量粒子暴与热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系

利用1997-2007年由GOES8, GOES11和GOES12星载高能粒子探测器在地球同步轨道高度上所探测到的高能质子和高能电子通量探测数据以及高度560km左右星载大气密度探测器所得的热层大气密度探测数据, 统计分析了强地磁扰动、高能粒子通量跃变和热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系, 初步获得强地磁扰动期间, 地球同步轨道(外辐射带外环)均出现了增幅大于三个数量级的高能质子通量(尤其是E>1MeV)强增强现象, 随后热 层大气密度强烈上涨, 表明三者之间是正相关关系. 在时间上地球同步轨道高能质子通量强增强现象先于日均Ap值(地磁活动程度)上涨约一天左右, 而热层大气密度强涨落现象又明显滞后于强地磁扰动事件.      

磁暴数统计特性研究

Dst是一个表征磁暴强度的空间天气指数. 通过统计1957-2008年 发生的中等磁暴(-100<Dst≤ -50nT)和强磁暴(Dst ≤ -100nT)在太阳活动周上升年、极大年、下降年和极小年的时间分布情 况, 分析其随季节变化的统计特性, 进而讨论了引起磁暴的原因. 结果表明, 对于同一太阳活动周, 极大年地磁暴发生次数远大于极小年地磁暴的发生次数, 这与太阳黑子数的变化趋势是一致的; 通常太阳活动周强磁暴出现双峰结构, 而第23周中等磁暴出现双峰结构, 强磁暴则出现三峰结构, 这可能与1999 年强 磁暴发生次数异常少, 使1998年凸显出来的现象有关; 磁暴主要发生在分季, 随着Dst指数的增加, 磁暴发生次数明显增加.      

由太阳爆发事件特征预报地磁暴方法研究

CME是非重现性地磁暴的诱因,通过对太阳耀斑爆发活动的特征与可能引起地磁活动的CME进行统计分析,发现太阳耀斑的强度、位置、持续时间以及耀斑所伴随的太阳质子事件和行星际高能质子通量的增长与CME的特征及可能产生的地磁扰动有着密切的关系.在对数据分析的基础上,建立了基于人工神经网络的预报模式,对太阳耀斑爆发活动所引起的地磁扰动的发生及Ap指数进行了预报,取得了较好的结果.