共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 546 毫秒
1.
基于电离层暴时f_0F_2经验模型Kalman滤波短期预报 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用时间累积地磁指数印ap(T),建立了强地磁扰动条件下电离层f0F2与月中值相对偏差经验模型.该经验模型只在春秋季节和夏季特强地磁扰动条件ap(T)>100,即时间累积地磁指数大于100时达到理想精度.尝试利用气象预报中常用的Kalman滤波方法对模型的系数进行实时修正,以提高预报精度,并对长春站1986-1995年近一个太阳周f0F2数据进行提前一小时预报试验.冬季预报均方根误差为0.76MHz,春秋季节为0.68MHz,夏季为0.61MHz.在特强地磁扰动条件下,预测误差在0.87~1.43MHz之间.该预报方法同时与包含暴时修正模型STORM的国际参考电离层IRI2001进行了比较,展示了Kalman滤波方法实时修正模型系数的能力和良好的应用前景. 相似文献
2.
利用神经网络预报中国地区电离层f0F2 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用神经网络技术并考虑太阳和地磁活动对电离层的影响,提出了一种提前5 h预报中国地区电离层临界频率f0F2的方法.网络输入包括时间、季节、地理纬度、太阳天顶角、最近一天的12个观测值(F-23,F-22,F-21,F-20,F-19,F-18,F-5,F-4,F-3,F-2,F-1,F0)和前30天滑动平均值(A-24,A-23,A-22,A-4,A-3A-2,A-1,A0),网络输出分别为未来5 h的f0F2值F+1,F+2,F+3,F+4,F+5.选取乌鲁木齐、长春、重庆和广州站1958-1968年间的数据训练网络,利用中国9个电离层站的历史数据检验网络,根据均方根误差衡量网络性能的好坏.结果表明,神经网络的预报结果能较好地符合实测数据.这说明利用神经网络实现中国地区电离层f0F2的时空预报是可行的. 相似文献
3.
地磁扰动期间日本Kokubunji站电离层的扰动特征分析 总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0
利用日本Kokubunji站(139.5°E,35.5°N)1959年1月到2004年12月共46年的F2层临界频率foF2参数,统计分析了Kokubunji站电离层F2层峰值电子浓度NmF2随地磁活动、太阳活动、季节和地方时变化的形态特征.结果表明,总体来看,磁暴期间Kokubunji站电离层响应以正暴为主,其中在太阳高年夏季为负暴,冬季为正暴,春秋季以负暴为主但幅度较小;在太阳低年夏季以正暴为主,冬季为正暴,春秋季以正暴为主.NmF2扰动与ap指数在夏季太阳高年负相关,在冬季无论太阳高年低年均为正相关,春秋季中4月和9月在太阳高年类似夏季,3月和10月在太阳低年类似冬季.电离层最大负相扰动对最大地磁活动的延迟时间约为12~15 h;正相扰动的延迟时间则分别为3 h和10 h.地磁活跃期间地方时黄昏后到午夜前倾向于正相扰动,清晨倾向于负相扰动. 相似文献
4.
电离层f_0F_2参数提前24小时预测 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
利用中国9个垂测站(海口、广州、重庆、拉萨、兰州、北京、乌鲁木齐、长春、满洲里)一个太阳周(1976-1986年)的数据资料,采用三层前向反馈神经网络(BP网络)实现了电离层F2层临界频率(f0F2)参数提前24h预测.通过对f0F2参数的时间序列及其与日地活动之间进行相关分析,确定f(t)(当前时刻f0F2)、经过变换的F10.7指数等5个参数作为神经网络的输入参数,并通过同时段训练法获得不同时刻的预测值,本文与自相关分析法进行了预测性能比较.结果表明,上述方法构建的神经网络可以达到较高的预测精度.针对暴时数据,对神经网络算法进行了改进,提高了神经网络法对暴时数据的适用性. 相似文献
5.
利用神经网络预报电离层f0F2 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
由中国武汉电离层台站和澳大利亚Hobart台站的电离层F2层临界频率(f0F2)的资料,利用三层前向反馈神经网络(BP网络),提出一种提前24h预测f0F2的方法,该方法以前5天观测的f0F2数据拟合的5个系数以及太阳活动参数作为输入,以当天24 h的f0F2作为输出对网络进行训练,训练好的网络可以实现对f0F2提前24 h的预报.预测结果显示,利用神经网络预测的f0F2与实际观测结果变化趋势较一致,并且比IRI的计算结果更加准确.误差分析表明,在南半球Hobart(-42.9°,147.3°)台站比中国武汉站(30.4°,114.3°)的结果要好,在低年比高年要好,在冬夏季节比春秋季节稍好.本文说明利用神经网络对电离层参量进行预报是一种切实可行的方法. 相似文献
6.
7.
8.
利用卫星和地面台站的历史数据, 研究了中低纬电离层f0F2 对强行星际磁场南向翻转的响应. 结果表明, 行星际磁场南向翻转能引起电离层扰动式响应, 响应特性与纬度、季节和翻转时刻的地方时有关. 在中纬, 发生在夏分季和夜间的翻转能造成较强的电离层负响应, 其幅度随纬度的降低而变弱, 在恢复过程中存在不规则振荡; 在低纬, 南向翻转引起的电离层响应在夏分季较强, 在冬季则较弱, 且易被淹没在电离层自身的扰动中. 分析指出电离层最大负响应与翻转后南向磁场极大值之间有着较好的线性关系. 相似文献
9.
10.
11.
Kingsley Chukwudi Okpala Chinasa Edith Ogbonna 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2018,61(7):1858-1872
The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms has been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ 100 nT) that occurred during solar cycles 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storm were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e. Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric conditions at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms. 相似文献
12.
《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2020,65(1):86-94
We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances. 相似文献
13.
D. Vijaya Lekshmi N. Balan V.K. Vaidyan H. Alleyne G.J. Bailey 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2008,41(4):548-555
The relative importance of the main drivers of positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes is studied using observations and modeling for the first time. In response to a rare super double geomagnetic storm during 07–11 November 2004, the low-mid latitude (17°–48°N geomag. lat.) ionosphere produced positive ionospheric storms in peak electron density (NmF2) in Japan longitudes (≈125°–145°E) on the day of main phase (MP1) onset (06:30 LT) and negative ionospheric storms in American longitudes (≈65°–120°W) on the following day of MP1 onset (13:00–16:00 LT). The relative effects of the main drivers of the positive ionospheric storms (penetrating daytime eastward electric field, and direct and indirect effects of equatorward neutral wind) are studied using the Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM). The model results show that the penetrating daytime (morning–noon) eastward electric field shifts the equatorial ionisation anomaly crests in NmF2 and TEC (total electron content) to higher than normal latitudes and reduces their values at latitudes at and within the anomaly crests while the direct effects of the equatorward wind (that reduce poleward plasma flow and raise the ionosphere to high altitudes of reduced chemical loss) combined with daytime production of ionisation increase NmF2 and TEC at latitudes poleward of the equatorial region; the later effects can be major causes of positive ionospheric storms at mid latitudes. The downwelling (indirect) effect of the wind increases NmF2 and TEC at low latitudes while its upwelling (indirect) effect reduces NmF2 and TEC at mid latitudes. The net effect of all main drivers is positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes in Japan longitude, which qualitatively agrees with the observations. 相似文献
14.
Hanxian Fang Libin Weng Zheng Sheng 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2012
The responses of the thermospheric density and ionospheric foF2 to the intense magnetic storms event on 17–20 April were analyzed by using data from CHAMP/STAR and ionosonde stations respectively, and NRLMSISE-00 and IRI-2007 models were used to simulate. The models can capture the tendency of changes, especially under quiet or moderate geomagnetic conditions, but are less accurate under geomagnetic storms. The thermospheric density is sensitive to the EUV emission and geomagnetic activity, and double-peak structure appeared in the dayside. On 19 April dayside, TADs traveled toward the equator with phase speeds of the order of 300–750 m/s, interfered near the equator to produce a total density perturbation of 25%, and then passed through each other and into the opposite hemisphere. For ionospheric foF2, there are non-symmetric hemispheres’ features during the intense geomagnetic activities. In details, middle latitudes in the north and high latitudes in both hemispheres are negative ionospheric storms, and the maximum amplitudes of δfoF2 is about 60%, but the amplitudes decrease from the higher to lower latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, the equatorial station shows positive phase, and the maximum value is about 100%. Finally, the mechanisms for these features will be discussed in this study. 相似文献
15.
2000年7月和2003年10月大磁暴期间东亚地区中低纬电离层的GPS TEC的响应研究 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3
利用武汉电离层观象台研制的GPS TEC的现报方法及现报系统,对东亚地区GPS台网的观测数据进行处理分析,特别对2000年7月14-18日和2003年10月28日至11月1日两次特大磁暴期间的数据进行了对比考察,文中分析了两次磁暴间的电离层响应,得到对应不同磁暴时段电离层TEC的不同变化情况,着重揭示了TEC赤道异常峰的压缩和移动以及赤道异常随时间的压缩—反弹—恢复的过程,并结合高纬电离层的部分响应机制进行了说明,结果显示,两次磁暴期的电离层响应表现出了各自不同的特点,从而反映出因季节变化引起的高纬电离层暴时能量注入的不同而造成的全球性电离层扰动的不同形态,由此看出,磁暴期间电离层TEC的变化直接与太阳扰动发生的时间及其对高纬电离层的耦合有关,若短时期内连续发生多次磁暴,则电离层反应更加复杂,不能简单地当做单一磁暴叠加处理。 相似文献
16.
利用中国中低纬台站漠河(53.5°N,122.3°E)、北京(40.3°N,116.2°E)、武汉(30.5°N,114.2°E)和三亚(18.3°N,109.6°E)的电离层观测数据,对比分析了4个台站电离层参数在2015年不同季节4个地磁扰动事件期间的变化特征.结果表明,4个磁暴事件期间电离层的响应特征并不完全一致,有着明显的季节特征,春季、夏季和秋季电离层以负相扰动为主,冬季以正相扰动为主.分析发现,中性成分O/N2的降低与电离层负相扰动有关,但三亚地区的负相扰动还与扰动发电机电场相关.正相扰动的机制在不同事件中并不相同,穿透电场可能是引起春季磁暴事件期间电离层短时正暴效应的原因,而冬季长时间的正暴效应则是扰动电场和中性风共同作用的结果. 相似文献
17.
M.A. Chernigovskaya B.G. Shpynev A.S. Yasyukevich D.S. Khabituev K.G. Ratovsky A.Yu. Belinskaya A.E. Stepanov V.V. Bychkov S.A. Grigorieva V.A. Panchenko D. Kouba J. Mielich 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2021,67(2):762-776
We present a joint analysis of longitude-temporal variations of ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during the two severe magnetic storms in March and June 2015 by using data from the chains of magnetometers, ionosondes and GPS/GLONASS receivers. We identify the fixed longitudinal zones where the variability of the magnetic field is consistently high or low under quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The revealed longitudinal structure of the geomagnetic field variability in quiet geomagnetic conditions is caused by the discrepancy of the geographic and magnetic poles and by the spatial anomalies of different scales in the main magnetic field of the Earth. Variations of ionospheric parameters are shown to exhibit a pronounced longitudinal inhomogeneity with changing geomagnetic conditions. This inhomogeneity is associated with the longitudinal features of background and disturbed structure of the geomagnetic field. During the recovery phase of a storm, important role in dynamics of the mid-latitude ionosphere may belong to wave-like thermospheric disturbances of molecular gas, propagating westward for several days. Therefore, it is necessary to extend the time interval for studying the ionospheric effects of strong magnetic storms by a few days after the end of the magnetospheric source influence, while the disturbed regions in the thermosphere continues moving westward and causes the electron density decrease along the trajectories of propagation. 相似文献
18.
Yuqiang Zhang Zhensen Wu Jian Feng Tong Xu Zhongxin Deng Ming Ou Wen Xiong 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2021,67(5):1535-1545
Using the TEC data at Beijing (39.61°N, 115.89°E)/Yakutsk (62.03°N, 129.68°E) stations of East Asia regions and relevant geomagnetic data from 2010 to 2017, we have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms and compare it with our previous results of Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E) station (Zhang et al., 2020). The data shows a well-known local time dependence of the time delay, and seasonal dependences are different at these stations. In addition, there is no correlation between the time delay and the magnetic storm intensity /solar activity, except the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity. Comparing with the results of Taoyuan station which is located at EIA region in East Asia, we find that the time delay increases nonlinearly as the latitude decreases due to different ionospheric backgrounds at these places. Moreover, the pre-storm disturbance events are found to have similar statistical characteristics as the pre-storm enhancement in Europe middle latitudes (Bure?ová and La?tovi?ka, 2007). By subtracting the common features of the pre-storm disturbance events, we preliminarily infer that auroral activity might be main driver of the pre-storm disturbance events. 相似文献
19.
磁暴期间白天电离层总电子含量(TEC)大幅度扰动.TEC扰动与磁暴发生时的世界时(UT)有关.利用7年的数据对TEC对磁暴的响应进行统计研究.结果显示,磁暴期间白天TEC增大明显,且在午后TEC的增大比例有一个高峰.在18:00UT-04:00UT,南美地区与其他地区相比TEC增长较大,这可能与白天的光照有关.为了研究TEC变化与磁暴的关系,结合同样时间段的Dst指数,把TEC数据分为磁暴日(Dst<-100nT)和平静日(Dst>-50nT).研究发现,将TEC前移2h,低纬日侧地区TEC增大值随着世界时的变化与Dst变化的负相关性较好,相关系数为-0.75.在中纬度地区,将TEC扰动前移1h,相关系数为-0.61.这可能是行进式大气扰动携带着赤道向的子午风,由极区向低纬传播引起.可以认为,TEC的变化可能是由磁暴引起的.在高纬地区,TEC增大值随着世界时的变化与Dst变化的相关性较差.这可能是由于太阳高度角较低,光辐射通量较小,导致电子密度的增加不明显. 相似文献
20.
Rebeca López-Montes Román Pérez-Enríquez Eduardo A. Araujo-Pradere 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2012
Ionospheric disturbances associated with solar activity may occur via two basic mechanisms. The first is related to the direct impact on the ionosphere of EUV photons from a flare, and the second by prompt electric field penetration into the magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms. In this paper we examine the possibility that these two mechanisms may have an impact at mid latitudes by calculating the total electron content (TEC) from GPS stations in Mexico during several large X-ray flares. We have found that indeed large, complex flares, which are well located, may affect the mid latitude ionosphere. In fact, in the solar events of July 14, 2000 and April 2001 storms, ionospheric disturbances were observed to increase up to 138 and 150 TECu, respectively, due to the influence of EUV photons. Also, during the solar events of July 2000, April 2001, Halloween 2003, January 2005 and December 2006, there are large ionospheric disturbances (up to 393 TECu in the Halloween Storms), due to prompt penetration electric field, associated with CME producing geomagnetic storm. 相似文献