基于SPSS对部件故障率的预测

提出一种优化的航材需求预测方法,利用汽车维修的数据,根据已知数据、数据分布和问题的不同,分别建立了fh1(x)=ah1+bh1x,fh2(x)=ah2x1/2+bh2,gx(x)=1/a2+bkx这3种模型(其中a,b为参数).对于fh1(x)采用线性回归,fh2(x),gk(x)采用非线性回归进行拟合;当数据拟合曲线误差较大时,采用精度加权值的方法来进行拟合,模型为h(x,y)=rhfh(x)+(1-rh)gk(y),其中rh=R2h/(R2h+R2k),且对所有参数进行了F检验.     

CeO_2含量对Nd_2Ce_xO_(3+2x)热障涂层性能的影响

采用高温固相法合成了Nd2CexO3+2x(x=2.0,2.25,2.5,2.75,3.0)复合氧化物,在高温合金基体上采用等离子喷涂制备了该材料热障涂层.XRD分析结果表明Nd2CexO3+2x粉末和涂层均为立方萤石晶体结构.考察了CeO2含量对Nd2CexO3+2x的力学性能(弹性模量、维氏硬度和断裂韧性)和等离子喷涂涂层在1250℃抗热震性能的影响.随着CeO2含量增加,材料的弹性模量降低,维氏硬度和断裂韧性提高.通过提高初始粉末中CeO2的含量,获得了组成接近化学计量比Nd2Ce2O7的涂层,涂层的抗热震性能增强,热循环次数达到1000次以上.Nd2CexO3+2x涂层的失效原因主要是:与金属基体之间热膨胀系数不匹配、粘结层氧化和涂层烧结.     

用边界元法计算变截面变轴力柱的屈曲

 1.变截面变轴力柱屈曲计算的边界元法 变截面变轴力柱的挠曲方程的一般形式为式中 d²/dx²[EI(x)dw/dx²]+p(x)d²x/dx²=0,E——弹性模量;W——挠度;I（x）——截面处的横截面惯性矩;P（x）——x截面处的轴向压力;x——轴向坐标。 （1）式是非线性常微分方程,本文采用微分方程分解法,将（1）式分解成两个二阶变系数常微分方程。     

二分图中哈密顿[k,k+1]因子

主要研究了在均衡二分图G中哈密顿[k,k 1]因子的存在性.设G=(X,Y,E),|X|=1Y1=2/n≥4(k-2)-3,k≥2且n≥2,δ(G)≥k,若G中每一对不相邻的顶点u,v有max{dG(x),dG(x)}≥4/n 2,则G有包含哈密顿圈C的[k,k 1]因子.在此基础上,进一步给出结论:二分图G=(X、Y、E),|x|=|Y|=2/n≥4(k-2)且n≥2,δ(G)≥k,若G中每一对不相邻的顶点u,v有dG(v)≥2/n 4,则G有包含哈密顿圈C的[k,k 1]因子.结论在很大程度上改进了已有的包含哈密顿圈的度条件,进一步完善了包含哈密顿圈的因子理论.     

专利分类中基于主题的特征权重计算方法

专利自动分类是一个大规模、多层次结构的复杂文本分类问题.其中特征权重计算是一个关键环节,关系到专利的文本表示能否体现出主题信息的问题.本文通过分析专利(标题和摘要)的特点,提出了一种基于主题的特征权重计算新方法.该方法通过考察特征与主题的相关性来确定权重,使专利的文本表示更趋近于文章的主题.实验结果表明,该方法优于一般的权重计算方法,取得了较好的效果.     

Thermoelectric Properties of Mg_2Si_(1-x)Sn_x Synthesized by Bulk Mechanical Alloying

Bulk mechanical alloying (BMA) has been successfully applied to solid-state synthesis of p-type and n-type thermoelectric mate-rials Mg2Si1–xSnx (x = 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1) from element-powders at the room temperature in a relatively short time. The electrical conductivity, the Seebeck coefficient and the thermal conductivity of the Mg2Si1–xSnx are quite sensitive to the x-content. With the x-content rising, the electrical conductivity increases. When x = 0.6, it reaches the lowest and Mg2Si shows an n-type of semi-conducting. However, when x = 0.2 and T >525 K, the Seebeck coefficient of the samples will change the opposite way. While x≥0.4, the samples present a p-type of semi-conducting. The figure of merit, Z of Mg2Si1–xSnx will be obtained in the range from 300 K to 700 K. When x = 0.6, Z proves to be higher than that of other samples at 300 K≤T≤650 K.     

Thermoelectric Properties of Mg2Si1-xSnx Synthesized by Bulk Mechanical Alloying

Bulk mechanical alloying （BMA） has been successfully applied to solid-state synthesis of p-type and n-type thermoelectric materials Mg2Si1-xSnx （x = 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1） from element-powders at the room temperature in a relatively short time. The electrical conductivity, the Seebeck coefficient and the thermal conductivity of the Mg2Si1-xSnx are quite sensitive to the x-content. With the x-content rising, the electrical conductivity increases. When x = 0.6, it reaches the lowest and Mg2Si shows an n-type of semi-conducting However, when x = 0.2 and T 〉525 K, the Seebeck coefficient of the samples will change the opposite way. While x≥0.4, the samples present a p-type of semi-conducting. The figure of merit, Z of Mg2Si1-xSnx will be obtained in the range from 300 K to 700 K. When x = 0.6, Z proves to be higher than that of other samples at 300 K≤ T≤650 K.     

飞机配载方法的数学分析

飞机配载常用的方法是平衡图表法,亦即每一种机型需要专门的平衡图表。利用旅客、行李、邮件和货物等参数,用数学方法来分析飞机的平衡,从而帮助配载人员从本质上去理解平衡图表,实现对旅客、行李、邮件和货物的合理配载。     

CVD-BC_x在水氧环境中的自愈合机理

采用化学气相沉积法制备了BC x涂层,研究了水氧耦合环境中,CVD-BC x的氧化过程机理并获得CVD-BC x氧化的动力学参数。CVD-BC x氧化生成的B2O3可以对裂纹进行封填,利用CVD-BC x氧化时CVD-BC x的消耗速率和B2O3的生成速率,对微裂纹的愈合时间进行预测,并用层状BC x/SiC结构中的预制裂纹进行实验验证。结果表明,理论预测结果与实验验证能够很好地吻合。     

金属间化合物Ho_2Co_(17-x)Si_x的磁性能机制研究

研究了非磁性原子Si替代Co对Ho2 Co17金属间化合物结构和磁性的影响。X射线衍射表明 ,所有Ho2 Co17 xSix(x =0 .5 ,1.0 ,1.5 ,2 .0 ,2 .5 ,3.0 )化合物都为Th2 Ni17型六角结构 ;化合物的晶格常数和单胞体积都随Si含量的增加而呈线性下降。磁性测量表明 ,Ho2 Co17 xSix 化合物的居里温度和饱和磁化强度均随Si含量的增加而呈线性下降。从热磁曲线测量观察到 ,当 0 .5≤x≤ 3.0时Ho2 Co17 xSix 化合物出现由易面到易轴的自旋重取向 ,自旋重取向温度Tsr随Si原子含量的增加先下降 ,而后又上升 ,在x =2 .5处出现最低点。     

INS/GPS/TAN系统中的联邦卡尔曼滤波信息融合方法

在分析联邦卡尔曼滤波原理和结构的基础上,提出了一个适合惯性导航系统／全球定位系统／地形辅助导航（ＩＮＳ／ＧＰＳ／ＴＡＮ）子系统状态向量维数不同这一特点的联邦卡尔曼滤波方法,并构造了一种具有较强容错性能和适应性的联邦卡尔曼子系统滤波器结构。由于采用了局部状态扩展、局部状态压缩、智能的不等间隔滤波、多级故障检测、阈值控制等信息融合技术,在保证精度的前提下,联邦卡尔曼滤波器的可靠性、适应性得到了明显提高。     

一种基于卡尔曼滤波的定位解算性能评估新方法

对基于卡尔曼滤波的定位解算性能进行评估是提高卫星导航系统性能的有效途径。而传统的评估方法受人为主观性因素影响较大,提出了一种对数最小二乘模糊层次分析(FAHP)方法和模糊综合评价(FCE)方法相结合的性能评估方法。推导了模糊权重向量的唯一性确定条件,并将对数最小二乘FAHP方法确定的模糊权重向量去模糊化,使得权重向量可直接利用FCE方法进行加权综合,形成优势互补。以基于卡尔曼滤波的定位解算性能评估为实例,通过比较分析表明,所提出的对数最小二乘FAHP-FCE评估方法计算得到的权重向量优于基于程度分析的FAHP方法和基于先验规则挖掘的FAHP方法,使其更适合于对基于卡尔曼滤波的定位解算算法进行性能评估。     

基于辅助粒子滤波的机动目标跟踪研究

针对机动目标跟踪巾扩展卡尔曼算法（EKF）收敛速度慢、跟踪精度低的问题,基于粒子滤波（PF）和辅助粒子滤波（APF）的基本思想,结合目标先验信息将速度约束条件加入到跟踪过程巾,对辅助粒子滤波算法进行了仿真分析,与扩展卡尔曼进行仿真对比,分析了跟踪性能和误差。仿真结果表明,对机动目标跟踪问题,辅助粒子滤波不仅解决了扩展卡尔曼线性化困难难题,与EKF相比还具有收敛速度快,跟踪精度高的优点。     

Optimal and self-tuning information fusion Kalman multi-step predictor

Based on the optimal fusion algorithm weighted by matrices in the linear minimum variance (LMV) sense, a distributed optimal information fusion for the steady-state Kalman multi-step predictor is given for discrete linear stochastic control systems with multiple sensors and correlated noises, where the same sample period is assumed. When the noise statistics information is unknown, the distributed information fusion estimators for the noise statistics parameters are presented based on the correlation functions and the weighting average approach. Further, a self-tuning information fusion multi-step predictor is obtained. It has a two-stage fusion structure. The first-stage fusion is to obtain the fused noise statistics information. The second-stage fusion is to obtain the fused multi-step predictor. A simulation example shows the effectiveness.     

PDE solution to UAV/UGV trajectory planning problem by spatio-temporal estimation during wildfires

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) have been used in research and development community due to their strong potential in high-risk missions. One of the most important civilian implementations of UAV/UGV cooperative path planning is delivering medical or emergency supplies during disasters such as wildfires, the focus of this paper. However, wildfires themselves pose risk to the UAVs/UGVs and their paths should be planned to avert the risk as well as complete the mission. In this paper, wildfire growth is simulated using a coupled Partial Differential Equation (PDE) model, widely used in literature for modeling wildfires, in a grid environment with added process and measurement noise. Using principles of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), and with an appropriate choice of decomposition modes, a low-dimensional equivalent fire growth model is obtained for the deployment of the space–time Kalman Filtering (KF) paradigm for estimation of wildfires using simulated data. The KF paradigm is then used to estimate and predict the propagation of wildfire based on local data obtained from a camera mounted on the UAV. This information is then used to obtain a safe path for the UGV that needs to travel from an initial location to the final position while the UAV’s path is planned to gather information on wildfire. Path planning of both UAV and UGV is carried out using a PDE based method that allows incorporation of threats due to wildfire and other obstacles in the form of risk function. The results from numerical simulation are presented to validate the proposed estimation and path planning methods.     

不完全数据回归分析方法

基于不完全数据顺序统计量,提出一种不完全数据回归分析方法。建立不完全数据回归方程,给出回归系数的最佳无偏整体估计及其协方差矩阵。文中详细讨论了工程中常见的极值分布、Weibull分布和正态分布的等尺度和非等尺度(或异方差)线性回归分析。该方法可以将各个不同状态下的不完全数据作为一个整体进行统计分析,具有信息量大、精度高的特点。      

基于Bayes变动统计理论的测试性外场统计验证方法

针对故障检测/隔离数据为"小子样"情况导致的测试性外场统计验证存在的周期长、验证结论置信度低等问题,研究并提出了基于Bayes变动统计理论的的测试性外场统计验证模型和方法。首先建立了不同寿命周期阶段故障检测率(FDR)的序化关系模型;然后以Dirichlet分布为先验分布,利用不同寿命周期阶段故障检测率先验估计值确定Dirichlet分布参数;在此基础上,融合"小子样、异总体"研制阶段增长试验数据和"小子样"外场使用数据,研究并提出了故障检测率的Bayes综合评估模型;引入Gibbs抽样方法求解故障检测率Bayes综合评估模型的复杂高维后验积分;最后在某机载稳定跟踪平台上开展了应用研究。结果表明本文方法能在较短的外场使用周期内,给出较高置信度的外场验证结论,为大型高可靠性装备测试性外场统计验证研究提供了重要的理论依据。     

Duane模型的导数最小二乘估计

 针对传统最小二乘估计仅仅考虑回归模型曲线本身的试验样本,不能同时对曲线动态变化规律进行描述、未能充分利用模型与数据信息的问题,依据在一次观测中待定参数的取值应使得随机样本与模型各阶导函数在概率尺度下具有最小距离的原理,通过构造模型曲线导数意义下的损失函数,提出了一种能够综合利用模型与试验数据导数信息的导数最小乘方估计方法,推广了传统最小二乘估计的模型条件与使用范围。并结合复杂可修产品可靠性增长的Duane模型给出了参数的一般导数最小二乘估计与最佳导数最小二乘估计式,证明了模型参数的导数最小二乘估计较传统最小二乘估计具有更好的统计性质。为实际中确定模型曲线,进行工程预测提供了一条新的技术途径。     

飞机排故方法模糊与统计综合评估算法的研究

针对民航飞机维修过程中故障描述对应的多种故障原因和排故方法,无法进行确定性选择问题,采用模糊综合评估理论,在统计已往维修经验数据的基础上,提出一种在各种故障原因和排故方法中进行选择的优先排序算法,进而解决了飞机故障诊断信息应用的关键问题,提高了排故速度。此评估算法已应用到民航的维修实践中。     

Automatic target recognition for hyperspectral imagery using high-order statistics

Due to recent advances in hyperspectral imaging sensors many subtle unknown signal sources that cannot be resolved by multispectral sensors can be now uncovered for target detection, discrimination, and identification. Because the information about such sources is generally not available, automatic target recognition (ATR) presents a great challenge to hyperspectral image analysts. Many approaches developed for ATR are based on second-order statistics in the past years. This paper investigates ATR techniques using high order statistics. For ATR in hyperspectral imagery, most interesting targets usually occur with low probabilities and small population and they generally cannot be described by second-order statistics. Under such circumstances, using high-order statistics to perform target detection have been shown by experiments in this paper to be more effective than using second order statistics. In order to further address a challenging issue in determining the number of signal sources needed to be detected, a recently developed concept of virtual dimensionality (VD) is used to estimate this number. The experiments demonstrate that using high-order statistics-based techniques in conjunction with the VD to perform ATR are indeed very effective