Technology foresight in practice: A proposal for Turkish space vision

We are witnessing a fundamental change in the perception of space-related issues. Once a symbol of technological competition between opposing political systems, space activities have become a part of everyday life and an indispensable means for states to achieve economic, scientific, political and social goals. This Report addresses the space activities of Turkey, a latecomer to space challenge but a country rapidly progressing in this field. In this context, major space-related policies and projects are first discussed. The current status of the Turkish space industry is then defined through SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). The analysis is informed by a May 2012 workshop was held in Turkey at the Defense Sciences Institute, which brought together a range of interested actors to discuss Turkey's space policy. The workshop was followed up six months later with a survey of a larger group of participants. This Report lays out the findings of these two events, articulating the strengths and weaknesses for Turkey's space aspirations, and also a proposal for the country's future space ambitions. Strategies and policies that will be supportive in achieving the proposed space vision are also introduced.     

International relations in space: A US view

A Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council was recently asked to assess whether the changing global context for space activities required any adjustments in NASA's approach to its international activities. This article presents the Task Force's major findings and conclusions. The USA must reinvigorate its civil space programme, with responsibility clearly assigned, and long-term goals and directions established. Through cooperation, it must bring other nations to share those goals and move in the same directions.     

Global space exploration 2025: Europe's perspectives for partnerships

Space exploration is an emblematic domain of space activities where traditionally only established space powers have been active. However, new actors are demonstrating great interest in it, principally for international prestige reasons, with an increasing number making ambitious plans. Complementing national endeavours, international cooperation has become a central element of most countries' exploration strategy, since the costs of doing it alone are so great. Europe's development into a fully fledged actor in space exploration requires a shared assessment of the future challenges, threats and opportunities with which it will be confronted in order to derive the best options for cooperation to lead and anticipate rather than follow and endure change.     

ESA strategic planning for space exploration

The European Space Agency (ESA) is pursuing an independent strategic planning process for consolidating a destination driven (LEO, Moon, Mars) space exploration strategy. ESA's space exploration strategy is driven by the goals to maximise knowledge gain and to contribute to economic growth. International cooperation is a key pillar of ESA's strategy as it is considered both, an enabler for achieving common goals and a benefit, opening new perspective for addressing future challenges. The achievement of ESA's space exploration strategy is enabled through international partnerships. The interagency coordination process conducted within the framework of the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) plays an important role in laying the foundations for future partnerships. It has achieved so far the development of a common vision for space exploration, a common plan for implementing the vision in the form of the Global Exploration Roadmap, as well as a common approach for articulating the value of global space exploration. ESA has been a strong promoter and supporter of the interagency coordination process conducted within ISECG and thanks to its unique expertise in international cooperation the Agency has contributed to its success.     

Public funding of space activities: a case of semantics and misdirection

The semantic ambiguity of the word ‘space’ causes problems for both the funding of space activities and the determining of space policies. The historical practice of lumping all space activities together, to be funded by a single budgetary line, is inappropriate to the range of such activities and for the economic and strategic interests at stake: it has direct consequences for the priorities governments want to make, and can pervert the directions industry is trying to go in. While continued government support for space is imperative, given the strategic, national-development nature of many of its applications, new ways must be found of allocating it a budget that take account of the diversity of the areas in which it plays a role.     

Past, present and future implications of human supervisory control in space missions

Achieving the United States’ Vision for future Space Exploration will necessitate far greater collaboration between humans and automated technology than previous space initiatives. However, the development of methodologies to optimize this collaboration currently lags behind development of the technologies themselves, thus potentially decreasing mission safety, efficiency and probability of success. This paper discusses the human supervisory control (HSC) implications for use in space, and outlines several areas of current automated space technology in which the function allocation between humans and machines/automation is sub-optimal or under dispute, including automated spacecraft landings, Mission Control, and wearable extra-vehicular activity computers. Based on these case studies, we show that a more robust HSC research program will be crucial to achieving the Vision for Space Exploration, especially given the limited resources under which it must be accomplished.     

What is the state of play in European governance of space policy?

The European way of doing space differs from others in that, while carried out cooperatively, there is no fully integrated space policy. This is inevitable in a non-sovereign entity whose members do not have the same priorities in many vital sectors such as energy, industry and political economy, and has nevertheless produced some excellent programmes. But, against the background of the worldwide increase in space players and capabilities, Europe's current lack of ambition and foresight, and its limited ability to respond to external developments are worrying. It needs to be more open about its governance and financing plans, something missing from the latest European Commission communication. In these difficult economic times a complete rethinking of future space plans would enable Europe to prioritise on the strategic niches which must be preserved, while proper investigation of the management failures of the flagship programmes might help avoid such difficulties in the future.     

Role of the current young generation within the space exploration sector

The space sector gathers together people from a variety of fields who work in the industry on different levels and with different expertise. What is often forgotten is the impact and role of the current young generation. Their engagement is of great importance as undeniably today's young ‘space generation’ will be defining the direction of future space exploration.Today's vision of future human and robotic space exploration has been set out in the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). This focuses on sustainable, affordable and productive long-term goals. The strategy begins with the International Space Station (ISS) and then expands human presence into the solar system, including a human mission to Mars.This paper presents a general overview of the role of today's youth within the space exploration sector and the challenges to overcome. To complete this perspective, we present results from a survey made among students and young professionals about their levels of awareness of the GER. The respondents presented their opinion about current aspects of the GER and prioritised the GER's objectives. It is hoped that the paper will bring a new perspective into the GER and a contribution to the current GER strategy.     

Space activities in Korea—History, current programs and future plans

Korea has participated in space development only since the 1990s. Despite its short history, Korea has been increasing its technological capabilities with the successful experience of several national projects. The Korean government established a long-term space development plan in 1996, which suggests a clear way forward for space development up to 2015. Space activities in Korea will grow continuously. The direction of future space activities will be decided by the national space development plan. This paper discusses Korea's past and present space activities and future development projects.     

UNCOPUOS 50 years on: Assessing current dynamics and exploring its future role

UNCOPUOS recently celebrated its 50th anniversary and has a range of achievements to show for it. But it is now very different – in both type and number of members – from the organization established at the start of the Cold War and needs to consider its future direction. An obvious topic to pursue is the long-term sustainability (LTS) of space activities, which, after some false starts, has now been adopted. One Working, and Four Expert, Groups have been set up to examine different aspects of the subject, though care must be taken to ensure that these are properly integrated into a multidisciplinary framework. Despite valid objections that LTS could be used to deny access to space to latecomers to the club, it is important to proceed with LTS while taking account of delegations' concerns.     

Russia's resurgence: Prospects for space policy and international cooperation

Based on a joint study initiated in 2007–2008 by the Policy planning staff (CAP) of the French Foreign Ministry and the space agency CNES, which brought together experts, researchers and industry insiders, this article considers the factors behind Russia's recent resurgence and the possible revival of its space programme. It examines how far the latter will require international cooperation in order to progress further and discusses likely areas of profitable collaboration with Europe in general and France in particular, given that country's long history of space cooperation with Russia and the need in the mid-term future to share the burden of developing ambitious new space programs. While there is in principle much potential, especially in the area of space transportation, there are also numerous challenges and uncertainties. How these are resolved will affect the level and success of any cooperative efforts of both sides.     

Assuring the sustainability of space activities

The growth of new space systems and the continued creation of orbital debris could in a few years make activities in Earth orbit unsustainable, so finding cost-effective ways to sustain space activities in Earth orbit is essential. Because outer space activities serve the needs of the military–intelligence, civil, and commercial communities, each with their own requirements, creating the necessary international agreements for reaching and maintaining a condition of sustainability will not be easy. This paper summarizes the primary issues for the international space community regarding our future ability to reap the benefit of space systems in Earth orbit. It explores several of the efforts to develop international agreements that would lead to or support the sustainability of space activities and examines the benefits and drawbacks of each approach. In particular, it reviews progress within the UN COPUOS, and examines the EU's proposal for an international Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. It also notes the need for states to establish or expand their own space legal infrastructure to conform to the UN treaties and guidelines for space activities.     

Japan's future in space

Japan's Consultative Committee on Long Term Policy was established within the Space Activities Commission to consider how the country's space activities should proceed. The Committee was asked to take a long-term viewpoint, considering the rapid changes in both domestic and overseas space activities. This report is an edited version (and unofficial translation) of the Committee's report, published in May 1987. It outlines the significance of space activities for Japan, considers how they have developed during this century, forecasts development after the year 2000, and presents proposals for the execution of Japan's space development.     

Space Phoenix

The US federal government is collaborating with a non-profit university consortium and its commercial project managers to develop the Space Shuttle fleet's expended external fuel tanks for scientific and commercial uses in space. Nearly a half dozen years in evolution, the Space Phoenix Program is a private-sector civil space programme with the long-term goal of opening the Earth's space to as many people, organizations and activities as possible, as soon as possible, and at the lowest cost to them as possible. In time it is expected to be a major focus for private-sector activities in space. This report describes how it will work.     

发展X-37B空间飞机的背后动因分析

文章通过对X-37B飞行器的飞行试验任务分析,指出了X-37B飞行器不是空天飞机,也不是全球快速打击平台,而是一种低成本太空进入能力的飞行验证器,它的作用定位在空间而不是在空中。通过飞行试验和验证试验,旨在打造一个可重复使用的轨道转移运载器。将美国2010年航天战略的重大调整、国际空间站的运行延期和航天飞机退役等事件结合起来,对X-37B发展的背后动因进行分析,有助于了解美国航天发展的未来趋势。经过动因的详尽分析,指出要特别关注美国航天战略调整的两个重心转向,尤其是两个转向背后的动机。如何正确地认识国际空间站的作用定位,对于审视载人航天的未来发展有重要意义。美国航天战略的调整使载人航天的重心回到近地轨道上。基于中国目前的能力现实,建议中国的载人航天重心放在地球轨道上,做好各种能力的建设,并利用这些能力把地球轨道上的事做得更好。     

Recent space developments in South Korea

Despite some setbacks – notably an indigenous launch failure – progress is being made in South Korea's space program and its public image has been boosted by the first flight of a Korean astronaut to the ISS. This report provides an update on recent and forthcoming space activities in the country and on its current cooperative arrangements.     

NASA's integrated space transportation plan

Improvements in the safety, reliability and affordability of current and future space transportation systems must be achieved if NASA is to perform its mission and if the U.S. space industry is to reach its full potential. In response to Presidential Policy in 1994, NASA, working with our industrial partners, initiated several efforts including the X-33, X-34, X-37 and Advanced Space Transportation programs with the goal of demonstrating the technologies that could enable these goals. We have learned that emerging technologies will enable the needed advancements but that more development along multiple, competing paths is needed. We have learned that developing requirements diligently and in partnership with industry will allow us to better converge with commercial capabilities. We have learned that commercial markets are not growing as fast as projected earlier, but there are still possibilities in the near-term to pursue alternate paths that can make access to space more robust. The goal of transitioning NASA's space transportation needs to commercial launch vehicles remains the key aim of our efforts and will require additional investment to reduce business and technical risks to acceptable levels.     

Activities of the COSPAR Panel on Exploration supporting the Global Exploration Roadmap

The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) is driven by several goals and objectives that include space science, the search for life as well as preparatory science activities to enable human space exploration. The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR), through its Commissions and Panels provides an international forum that supports and promotes space exploration worldwide. COSPAR's Panel on Exploration (PEX) investigates a stepwise approach of preparatory research on Earth and in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to facilitate a future global space exploration program. We summarize recent activities and workshops of PEX in support of the GER.     

EVA 2000: a European/Russian space suit concept

For the European manned space activities an EVA space suit system was being developed in the frame of the Hermes Space Vehicle Programme of the European Space Agency (ESA). The space suit was to serve the needs for all relevant extravehicular activities for the Hermes Columbus operations planned to begin in 2004. For the present Russian manned space programme the relevant EVAs are performed by the Orlan-DMA semi-rigid space suit. The origin of its development reaches back to the 1970s and has since been adapted to cover the needs for extravehicular activities on Salyut and MIR until today. The latest modification of the space suit, which guaranteed its completely self-contained operation, was made in 1988. However, Russian specialists considered it necessary to start developing an EVA space suit of a new generation, which would have improved performance and would cover the needs by the turn of the century and into the beginning of the next century. Potentially these two suit developments could have a lot in common based on similarities in present concepts. As future manned space activities become more and more an international effort, a safe and reliable interoperability of the different space suit systems is required. Based on the results of the Munich Minister Conference in 1991, the European Space Agency and the Russian Space Agency agreed to initiate a requirements analysis and conceptual design study to determine the feasibility of a joint space suit development, EVA 2000. The design philosophy for the EVA 2000 study was oriented on a space suit system design of: space suit commonality and interoperability; increased crew productivity and safety; increase in useful life and reduced maintainability; reduced development and production cost. The EVA 2000 feasibility study was performed in 1992, and with the positive conclusions for EVA 2000, this approach became the new joint European Russian EVA Suit 2000 Development Programme. This paper gives an overview of the results of the feasibility study and presents the joint requirements and the proposed design concept of a jointly developed European Russian space suit.     

单次任务中主动清除多块碎片的仿真分析

针对国内外空间活动产生的碎片,文章采用多脉冲推力作用下的轨道机动仿真方法,在主要考虑总速度增量为2 km/s的约束条件下,计算碎片清除所需要的速度增量、任务时间以及清除个数。仿真结果表明,单次任务可以清除12块分布比较集中的碎片。研究结果可为我国今后空间碎片清扫任务的设计提供参考依据。