ESA strategic planning for space exploration

The European Space Agency (ESA) is pursuing an independent strategic planning process for consolidating a destination driven (LEO, Moon, Mars) space exploration strategy. ESA's space exploration strategy is driven by the goals to maximise knowledge gain and to contribute to economic growth. International cooperation is a key pillar of ESA's strategy as it is considered both, an enabler for achieving common goals and a benefit, opening new perspective for addressing future challenges. The achievement of ESA's space exploration strategy is enabled through international partnerships. The interagency coordination process conducted within the framework of the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) plays an important role in laying the foundations for future partnerships. It has achieved so far the development of a common vision for space exploration, a common plan for implementing the vision in the form of the Global Exploration Roadmap, as well as a common approach for articulating the value of global space exploration. ESA has been a strong promoter and supporter of the interagency coordination process conducted within ISECG and thanks to its unique expertise in international cooperation the Agency has contributed to its success.     

A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

Modeling international cooperation for space exploration

Space exploration into the twenty-first century is contingent upon the ability of states to forge an appropriate vehicle for international cooperation. A theoretical framework that explains international cooperation in space exploration is proposed. This framework encompasses scientific, technological, political, and economic initial conditions, state and nonstate political actors, and models of cooperation that explain how initial conditions and actors interact to realize cooperative outcomes. It is hypothesized that the prevailing initial conditions favor certain political actors over others which, in turn, promote a specific model of cooperation. Cooperative policy outcomes are examined and assessed vis-à-vis case studies of cooperation in space exploration. On this basis, policy recommendations that engender effective cooperative outcomes in space exploration are suggested.     

Stepping stones toward global space exploration

Several nations are currently engaging in or planning for robotic and human space exploration programs that target the Moon, Mars and near-Earth asteroids. These ambitious plans to build new space infrastructures, transport systems and space probes will require international cooperation if they are to be sustainable and affordable. Partnerships must involve not only established space powers, but also emerging space nations and developing countries; the participation of these new space actors will provide a bottom-up support structure that will aid program continuity, generate more active members in the space community, and increase public awareness of space activities in both developed and developing countries. The integration of many stakeholders into a global space exploration program represents a crucial element securing political and programmatic stability. How can the evolving space community learn to cooperate on a truly international level while engaging emerging space nations and developing countries in a meaningful way? We propose a stepping stone approach toward a global space exploration program, featuring three major elements: (1) an international Earth-based field research program preparing for planetary exploration, (2) enhanced exploitation of the International Space Station (ISS) enabling exploration and (3) a worldwide CubeSat program supporting exploration. An international Earth-based field research program can serve as a truly global exploration testbed that allows both established and new space actors to gain valuable experience by working together to prepare for future planetary exploration missions. Securing greater exploitation of the ISS is a logical step during its prolonged lifetime; ISS experiments, partnerships and legal frameworks are valuable foundations for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. Cooperation involving small, low-cost missions could be a major stride toward exciting and meaningful participation from emerging space nations and developing countries. For each of these three proposed stepping stones, recommendations for coordination mechanisms are presented.     

Modeling international cooperation in human space exploration for the twenty-first century.

The policy process of international cooperation in space exploration. including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the twenty-first century, is modeled and examined in this study. In the optimistic scenario, international cooperation involves a balanced and interdependent distribution of capabilities between states, their respective national space agencies and communities of space scientists and space engineers. Cooperation is characterized by interstate participation in critical path components and joint research and development. In the pessimistic scenario, international cooperation is structured and dominated politically and economically by powerful states vis-a-vis weaker states. Cooperation is limited to coordination of separate nationally approved projects and augmentation of capabilities in noncritical path components. On the basis of these two scenarios, policy predictions and implications relevant to exploration missions in the twenty-first century, such as a human-tended lunar base and human missions to Mars, are presented and discussed.     

A new setting for international space cooperation?

The year 2004 could be seen as the turning point for the realignment of international space cooperation for the 21st century. At the very core of this readjustment, the US space exploration initiative strives to define a new scheme for such a broad array of aspects as international scientific cooperation, the role of the space industry and the organizational framework for international space applications. This paper argues that the success of this new outline of international space cooperation depends on several conditions. First, the US initiative needs to demonstrate its long-term continuity and reliability for international partners, which will depend to no small degree on the future of the ISS and its utilization for international research. Second, international cooperation between industrial partners will continue to need political frameworks and depend on a balanced handling of know-how partnerships. Third, cooperation in space applications will need a truly international structure to further its global acceptance and outreach.     

Towards a European vision for space exploration: Recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission

As a result of increasing public and political interest in ‘space’ (i.e. solar system) exploration at the global scale, the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission has evaluated the situation in Europe with regard to its potential to participate in this ambitious global enterprise. Aspects of science, technology, environment and safety, society, spin-offs and international cooperation were all considered. The group concluded that Europe possesses sufficient key technologies and scientific expertise to play a major role in international space exploration and has recommended that the EU take a central role to ensure the success of future European space exploration, not only to give a clear political signal for the way forward but also to ensure an appropriate financial framework. In this way Europe would embrace the spirit of the European Space Policy and contribute to the knowledge-based society by investing significantly in space-based science and technology, thereby playing a strong role in international space exploration.     

The Global Exploration Roadmap and its significance for NASA

The Global Exploration Roadmap reflects the collaborative effort of twelve space agencies to define a long-term human space exploration strategy which provides substantial benefits for improving the quality of life on Earth and is implementable and sustainable. Such a strategy is a necessary precondition to the government investments required to enable the challenging and rewarding missions that extend human presence into the solar system. The article introduces the international strategy and elaborates on NASA's leadership role in shaping that strategy. The publication of the roadmap, a reflection of the space landscape and multilateral agency-level dialog over the last four years, allows NASA to demonstrate its commitment to leading a long-term space exploration endeavor that delivers benefits, maintains strategic human spaceflight capabilities and expands human presence in space, with human missions to the surface of Mars as a driving goal. The road mapping process has clearly demonstrated the complementary interests of the participants and the potential benefits that can be gained through cooperation among nations to achieve a common goal. The present US human spaceflight policy is examined and it is shown that the establishment of a sustainable global space exploration strategy is fully consistent with that policy.     

An international symbol for the sustained exploration of space

As humanity prepares to extend its reach beyond low-Earth-orbit for the first time since the 1970s, a new symbol of international cooperation is needed to further promote the message of peace and collaboration such exploration entails. The space race that occurred between the USSR and the USA is an ill-suited model for long-term sustained space exploration because it is too costly and too resource-intensive for a single nation to bear. While competition is healthy for technology development, the success of a sustained space exploration strategy lies beyond technological capabilities. It lies in international cooperation, space policy, and public support. Without these, no program can realistically achieve a sustained presence in space beyond low-Earth orbit. To this effect, this paper proposes a cost-effective first step in the form of a universal symbol which, when placed alongside national flags displayed on hardware and astronaut/cosmonaut/taikonaut flight-suits, would send a strong message to the world that space exploration is done for the benefit of humanity as a whole, not just for spacefaring nations. The “Blue Marble”, the first complete picture of Earth taken from space by humans in 1972, fits this universally appealing symbol. This symbol requires no political collaboration between countries, yet is an image that anyone, anywhere in the world, can relate to regardless of nationality, ethnic origin or religious beliefs. Placed on the shoulder pads of human ’nauts – ambassadors of planet Earth – or prominently displayed on spacebound hardware, this symbol would send a universal message to present and future generations that, in space, our planet is working together for the benefit of everyone.     

国外空间环境试验与探测技术现状与发展趋势

文章分析了与航天器飞行有关的4类空间环境的特点;介绍了国外空间环境试验技术的现状与发展概况。文章还重点分析了未来空间环境探测的发展趋势:加强了对空间环境动态变化的探测;将星座探测摆在重要地位;以地球轨道卫星为发展的主流;利用卫星加大对空间环境探测的力度;加强国际合作。国外空间环境探测的经验表明,我国应重视发展地球轨道探测卫星,尽快提高卫星有效载荷的水平。     

俄罗斯火星载人探测技术现状

火星探测是人类探索太空的重要组成部分。俄罗斯在火星探测方面具有丰富的经验和大量技术储备。文章扼要介绍了俄罗斯火星载人探测技术的发展过程,重点阐述了俄罗斯现阶段火星探测方案和关键部件的研制现状和技术能力,对该方案的可行性进行了分析,并对火星探测技术可能的国际合作方式提出建议。     

Toward a paradigm shift in managing future global space exploration endeavors

This paper analyzes the objectives and activities of space exploration programs, and presents action plans and guidelines for a future sustainable global space exploration platform. While new cooperative mechanisms have emerged in recent decades, the now-unfolding era of global space exploration will lead to new models of cooperation, reflecting the legacy of partnerships and the evolution of a global endeavor. Consequently, the successful alignment of national and international stakeholders along lines drawn by commonality of purpose will be crucial to achieve a basis for marshalling sufficient resources for ambitious space projects, and to create necessary new political, economic, and legal frameworks. For the development of a successful global space exploration program, traditional approaches may need to be supplanted by a new paradigm including focus on information exchange, organizational knowledge, and human capital – as practiced in high-performance organizations (HPOs) – that go well beyond the current international working groups and multinational space efforts.     

Outlook of possible European contributions to future exploration scenarios and architectures

Building upon the important experience acquired with the development of the International Space Station, the major spacefaring countries are working within the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) at the definition of a coordinated framework for expanding the human presence beyond the Low Earth Orbit, the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). The GER defines a long-range strategy for global exploration and include three major elements.

• •Common goals of ISECG participating agencies for space exploration.
• •Notional mission scenarios which are technically feasible and programmatically implementable. Two mission scenarios were defined in the 1st iteration of the GER: the “Asteroid Next” and the “Moon Next” mission scenarios.
• •Identification of near-term opportunities for coordination and cooperation related to e.g. the development of technologies, the implementation of robotic missions to destination of interest for closing strategic knowledge gaps which need to be addressed prior to human missions as well as the utilization of ISS for demonstration of exploration enabling capabilities.

In 2009 two studies have been awarded by ESA to Industrial Teams led by Thales Alenia Space—Italy and by Astrium—Germany to define, analyze and assess optional European scenarios for future human spaceflight and exploration activities, and to derive the required capabilities for the investigated timeframe until the year 2033. Work on the European scenarios has been aligned with and informed by the international work on the GER.A conceptual design of different Building Block Elements, representing critical contributions to international Design Reference Missions (DRM's) included in the ISECG GER, has been performed and analyzed with respect to programmatic risks, budgets and required technologies. Key driving requirements for the analyzed Building Block elements have been derived from the international DRM's included in the GER.The interim outcomes of the human exploration scenario study will be presented, identifying opportunities for European Contributions to an international exploration undertaking.     

United Nations Human Space Technology Initiative (HSTI)

The Human Space Technology Initiative was launched in 2010 within the framework of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications implemented by the Office for Outer Space Affairs of the United Nations. It aims to involve more countries in activities related to human spaceflight and space exploration and to increase the benefits from the outcome of such activities through international cooperation, to make space exploration a truly international effort.     

Consideration of space activities by the UN general assembly

The thirty-ninth session of the United Nations General Assembly affirmed ‘that complete and general disarmament warrants that outer space should be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and that it shall not become an arena for an arms race’.This text appears in the first of two important resolutions concerning outer space adopted by the General Assembly during its last session. Also in the first resolution, entitled ‘Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space’ (A/39/59 of 12 December 1984), the Assembly called upon all states, particularly those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful uses of outer space and to take immediate measures to prevent an arms race in outer space in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international cooperation and understanding.     

Can space exploration survive the end of the Cold War?

The first, heroic age of space exploration was drived by national rivalry between the USA and USSR. There have indeed been recent achievements, but as the Cold War ends the superpowers are turning their attention to domestic issues and the prospect looms of a prolonged hiatus in space exploration. The only way forward is through international cooperation, but this will never happen without a serious investment of political will. A well-planned, long-term strategy for the exploration of Mars could provide the necessary focus.     

空间碎片国际机制发展趋势分析

文章通过对空间碎片国际机制(多边谈判机制)的分析,指出其发展趋势,从而为中国参加相关谈判工作提供参考。空间碎片国际机制的发展已呈现出明显的政策化、法律化和制度化的趋势。无论是从外空利益争夺、外空战略实现,还是从中国航天事业可持续发展、中国航天立法体系完善的角度来讲,积极参加空间碎片技术合作与规则制定的国际谈判都具有重要意义。从国内建设上来看,中国应尽快制定“技术—政策(战略)—法律”三位一体的解决思路和具体方案;从国际层面看,可以借鉴美国一直坚持和贯彻的“技术—政策—国内规则—国际软法—国际法”外空策略,来开展空间碎片减缓和清除等方面的技术与规则制定的合作。     

What next for China in space after Shenzhou?

This article discusses China's ambitions in space now that it seems set to pursue human spaceflight. It suggests that, after sending its astronauts into space, completing orbital rendezvous-docking operations and placing a space lab in orbit, China will focus on the Moon with its Chang’e project. As an emerging space power, China will play a more active role in the international space community through collaboration in areas such as lunar exploration, science operations on the International Space Station, the Galileo Global Navigation Satellite System and the International Geosphere–Biosphere Program (IGBP). In particular, China will vigorously explore new opportunities to expand its cooperation with Russia and ESA to counteract Washington's attempt at containment. Meanwhile, Beijing will continue to follow its self-reliance principle to go its own way in space.     

International relations in space: A US view

A Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council was recently asked to assess whether the changing global context for space activities required any adjustments in NASA's approach to its international activities. This article presents the Task Force's major findings and conclusions. The USA must reinvigorate its civil space programme, with responsibility clearly assigned, and long-term goals and directions established. Through cooperation, it must bring other nations to share those goals and move in the same directions.     

Economic rhythms,Maslow Windows and the new space frontier

This paper explores the possible relationship between space exploration and long swings in the economy and socio-technical systems. We posit that the early phases of long upswings are characterized by periods of optimism and the spirit of adventure that provided a motivation for large-scale explorations and other great infrastructure projects in the past. These Maslow Windows help us understand prior eras of exploration and cultural dynamism, and offer a hopeful scenario for space exploration in the next two decades. We offer some observations as to what the exploratory thrust might look like, including a return to the lunar surface combined with other activities. Of course, we also point out that the next great wave of space exploration will almost certainly have a much more international flavor than has heretofore been the case.