Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis,and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain.However,efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved.The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation,whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs.While in fact,structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering,thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method,and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT) technique to compute the frac tional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations,which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs.The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations.Besides,the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis,which is determined by UT,is really small.Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.     

Multipath mitigation method based on Gaussian mixture model in RF relative measurement

Radio Frequency (RF) technology represents a high-precision relative navigation solution that has significant potential for application to earth-orbiting satellites. In precision applications, multipath errors dominate the total error because observables, which are used to estimate carrier-phase integer ambiguity, are not always subject to a Gaussian distribution when dual-frequency ambiguity estimation methods are used in the presence of multipath. As it has been shown that ranging observables obey a Gaussian mixture distribution, this study proposes improvements to the accuracy of estimation based on multipath mitigation founded on the Gaussian mixture model. To this end, such a model is created for integer ambiguity resolution in the presence of multipath, using which the theoretical error in dual-frequency ambiguity estimation is derived. Expectation Maximization (EM), which aids dual-frequency ambiguity estimation, is subsequently proposed to reduce the effect of multipath errors. Finally, two experimental scenarios are implemented to test the performance of the proposed method. The results show that EM-aided dual-frequency ambiguity estimation reduces the range error to approximately 20% in comparison with simple dual-frequency ambiguity estimation. Therefore the proposed technique is effective for multipath mitigation in RF relative measurement.     

基于部件描述进行系统容差分析的自动化方法

为了实现对复杂系统容差的自动化分析，提出了一种部件描述方法，通过输入部件的参数信息和参数关系信息，用有向图法及改进的拟牛顿法，进行参数间的误差传递计算。将之应用于发动机液压机械式控制系统的容差分析中，求出元件参数的容差范围。这一方法能够处理系统中参数的非线性传递和网络化关联等问题，较好地解决了复杂系统和较大系统的容差分析问题。     

基于实测星载原子钟数据的脉冲星守时方法

利用脉冲星估计星载原子钟钟差是实现卫星自主守时的途径之一。为充分分析基于脉冲星的自主守时系统性能，利用实测的星载原子钟钟差数据和中子星内部组成探测器(neutron star interior composition explorer, NICER)的PSR B1937+21脉冲星的观测数据，对比分析了星载原子钟和脉冲星的误差特性。设计了脉冲星守时系统框架和星载原子钟钟差估计方法。以实测的星载原子钟钟差数据为基础，计算分析了脉冲星守时系统的性能。计算结果表明，若脉冲星的脉冲到达时间（time of arrival, TOA）解算精度为1 μs/30 d，则原子钟钟差估计精度可达到优于1 μs的水平，初步验证了脉冲星守时系统的可行性。     

Estimation method for random sonic fatigue life of thin-walled structure of a combustor liner based on stress probability distribution

As to the sonic fatigue problem of an aero-engine combustor liner structure under the random acoustic loadings,an effective method for predicting the fatigue life of a structure under random loadings was studied.Firstly,the probability distribution of Von Mises stress of thin-walled structure under random loadings was studied,analysis suggested that probability density function of Von Mises stress process accord approximately with two-parameter Weibull distribution.The formula for calculating Weibull parameters were given.Based on the Miner linear theory,the method for predicting the random sonic fatigue life based on the stress probability density was developed,and the model for fatigue life prediction was constructed.As an example,an aero-engine combustor liner structure was considered.The power spectrum density(PSD) of the vibrational stress response was calculated by using the coupled FEM/BEM(finite element method/boundary element method) model,the fatigue life was estimated by using the constructed model.And considering the influence of the wide frequency band,the calculated results were modified.Comparetive analysis shows that the estimated results of sonic fatigue of the combustor liner structure by using Weibull distribution of Von Mises stress are more conservative than using Dirlik distribution to some extend.The results show that the methods presented in this paper are practical for the random fatigue life analysis of the aeronautical thin-walled structures.     

基于树形马氏链模型的可靠性分析方法

复杂系统的极限状态函数非线性程度较高,在进行可靠性分析时,易导致失效概率的计算误差大、效率低,针对上述问题,提出了树形马氏链（TMC）算法和基于该算法的可靠性分析方法。树形马氏链是对原始马尔可夫链的改进,其状态转移过程更加灵活,具备局部多链并行和自适应探索失效域边界的特性。树形马氏链通过多候选状态点扩大对失效域信息的收集,生成能充分反映失效分布特征的样本,对该样本进行自适应核密度估计得到近似最优的重要抽样分布密度函数,从而提高计算结果的准确度。文末的数值算例和工程算例验证了算法性能,计算结果表明算法对设计点、抽样起点的位置不敏感,处理强非线性及复杂串联系统问题时,能在少样本量下得到相对高准确度的计算结果,且在样本量改变时,计算结果相对稳定可靠;工程算例给出了所提方法在实际问题下的效率,体现了所提方法的工程应用价值。     

A novel method for importance measure analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties

For structural systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, research on quantifying the contribution of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to the failure probability of the systems is conducted. Based on the method of separating epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a variable, the core idea of the research is firstly to establish a novel deterministic transition model for auxiliary variables, distribution parameters, random variables, failure probability, then to propose the improved importance sampling(IS) to solve the transition model. Furthermore,the distribution parameters and auxiliary variables are sampled simultaneously and independently;therefore, the inefficient sampling procedure with an ‘‘inner-loop' for epistemic uncertainty and an‘‘outer-loop' for aleatory uncertainty in traditional methods is avoided. Since the proposed method combines the fast convergence of the proper estimates and searches failure samples in the interesting regions with high efficiency, the proposed method is more efficient than traditional methods for the variance-based failure probability sensitivity measures in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Two numerical examples and one engineering example are introduced for demonstrating the efficiency and precision of the proposed method for structural systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.     

基于小波变换的海杂波分布特性分析

提出了用小波变换对海杂波分布进行统计分析,利用小波多分辨分析估计海杂波的概率密度函数,通过拟合识别分布并求取参数,改变以往先假定海杂波分布识别的方法,克服了因为噪声的存在直接由海杂波数据估计分布参数不准确的缺点。通过适当地调整小波多分辨分析的阈值,可以获得更逼真的海杂波概率密度函数,适应各种海况下的海杂波分析。     

A novel temperature-compensation method based on correlation analysis for multi-FOG INS

Aimed at improving the bias stability of Fiber-Optic Gyroscope (FOG)-based inertial navigation systems in environments of various ambient temperatures, a novel temperature-compensation method based on a correlation analysis of the same batch of FOGs is proposed. The empirical mode decomposition method was employed to filter the high-frequency noises of the FOGs. Then, the correlation information of the multiple FOGs was used to analyze the feasibility of the method. Eventually, the same residual error of the FOGs was compensated via the simple piecewise linear models. The experimental results indicate that excellent compensation effects for both high- and low-accuracy FOGs are achieved using the proposed method. Specifically, the accuracies of high-accuracy FOGs are improved by approximately 33.9%, 20%, and 31.2%, while those of low-accuracy FOGs are improved by approximately 39.1%, 20.8%, and 26.1%. The method exhibits the merits of simplicity, validity, and stability, and thus is expected to be widely used in engineering applications.     

A fast pulse phase estimation method for X-ray pulsar signals based on epoch folding

X-ray pulsar-based navigation (XPNAV) is an attractive method for autonomous deep-space navigation in the future. The pulse phase estimation is a key task in XPNAV and its accuracy directly determines the navigation accuracy. State-of-the-art pulse phase estimation techniques either suffer from poor estimation accuracy, or involve the maximization of generally non-convex object function, thus resulting in a large computational cost. In this paper, a fast pulse phase estimation method based on epoch folding is presented. The statistical properties of the observed profile obtained through epoch folding are developed. Based on this, we recognize the joint prob-ability distribution of the observed profile as the likelihood function and utilize a fast Fourier transform-based procedure to estimate the pulse phase. Computational complexity of the proposed estimator is analyzed as well. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator significantly outperforms the currently used cross-correlation (CC) and nonlinear least squares (NLS) estima-tors, while significantly reduces the computational complexity compared with NLS and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators.     

基于模型检验的飞机系统安全性分析方法研究

传统的安全性分析方法,受到分析人员自身技能和经验等因素的影响,容易疏漏系统的失效状态或误判失效的影响。模型检验利用遍历算法,既可以从数学上保证搜索出系统的所有状态,不会发生疏漏;又可以利用计算机检验工具,实现自动分析过程,减少对分析人员技能和经验的依赖。将模型检验引入飞机系统安全性领域,提出了一种基于模型检验的安全性分析方法,以SAE ARP 4761标准附录中的机轮刹车系统为例,利用模型检验工具NuSMV对其安全性进行了分析,自动识别出导致某系统顶事件发生的最小失效组合,完成了传统故障树分析的目的。     

基于Simscape模型的航空发动机系统安全性分析方法

针对航空发动机系统安全性分析中的耦合情况,研究基于Simscape模型的航空发动机耦合故障建模和安全性分析问题。在基于模型的安全性分析(MBSA)故障拓展一般特点的基础上,分析了Simscape环境下进行故障外部拓展和建模语言内部故障拓展两种方式,以建立耦合故障模型。以全权限数字式发动机控制(FADEC)主燃油控制子系统为研究示例,进行独立和耦合故障形式化系统安全性分析。结果表明:航空发动机系统安全分析Simscape模型基于系统设计环境,可直接成为系统设计和安全性分析共同的工具,便于保证设计和安全性分析的一致性;该模型拓展方法和建模语言,从故障数学原理出发,对实际系统不同物理域的组件独立和耦合故障特性具有灵活和定量描述能力;由此拓展的故障模型下的安全性分析具有形式化、直观性和客观性的优势。      

Reliability estimation of rotary lip seal in aircraft utility system based on time-varying dependence degradation model and its experimental validation

With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula s...     

A novel method for solving shortest tool length based on compressing 3D check surfaces relative to tool postures

Solving the shortest tool length quickly under a known tool trajectory in multi-axis machining of complex channel parts is an urgent problem in industrial production. To solve this problem, a novel and efficient method is proposed which is featured by extracting only a few necessary curves from the check surface instead of sampling the entire surface. By rotating and compressing the 3D check surface relative to all tool postures, the boundaries of the area occupied by the 2D compressed surfaces are the essential elements for determining the shortest tool length. A tracking-based numerical algorithm is introduced to efficiently solve the silhouette curves which are formed in compressing. To define the multi-taper shaped tool holding system (THS) which is commonly used in production, a characterization model for THS profile is established. A model for solving the shortest tool length is finally constructed based on the critical interference relationship between the THS profile and all compressed boundary curves. For acceleration, the boundary splines are segmented according to their knot vectors. Then a new concept called the axis-aligned tool length box (AATB) is introduced, which can provide a conservative range of tool length for a spline segment. By scanning the AATBs of all spline segments, the very few effective spline segments that may ultimately determine the shortest tool length are filtered out. This acceleration method makes the solution for the shortest tool length more focused and efficient. The results of experimental examples are also reported to validate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed algorithm.