The flux of Earth-crossing and moon-cratering interplanetary bodies

Methods of determining the present flux and total number of kilometer-sized Earth-crossing objects are discussed, including (1) probability considerations based on the frequency of chance rediscoveries of the lost objects, (2) evaluation of large-scale photographic surveys for the detection of fast moving objects, and (3) evaluation of close encounters of interplanetary bodies with the Earth. The results are interfaced with the lunar and terrestrial cratering history. It is shown that the discrepancies between these two independent lines of evidence are still within the margin of uncertainty set by observational biases, cratering efficiencies, and surface reflectivities of the objects, in particular as regards extinct cometary nuclei. Impacts of active comets can only be held responsible for a very small fraction of the craters, and impacts of high-albedo Apollo asteroids are consistent with a steady state. There is no definite enhancement of the present-day flux as compared with the average level of cratering during the last 3 Gyr which would require significant variations in the stellar environment of the solar system, affecting the rate of delivery of new comets from the Oort cloud. There is also no evidence of a recent major collisional event in the asteroid belt. Deviations from an equilibrium between source and sink only become effective in the size range of meteor particles, where no long-term cratering record is available. They are apparently due to a very limited number of parent objects, and appear on a time scale which is very short compared with the age of the solar system.     

小行星防御动能撞击效果评估

以动能撞击防御潜在威胁小行星概念为背景,采用物质点法(Material Point Method,MPM)模拟了铝弹高速撞击S型小行星的过程,将撞击结果导入引力N体–离散元动力学模型中,对其后续演化过程进行仿真,并分析了撞击后碎片对地球的威胁指数。结果显示小行星在高速撞击的作用下部分破碎,大量碎片以与撞击方向相反的速度向外喷射,从而提升了小行星的撞击偏移效果。研究采用了两种不同结构的小行星模型:完整结构(monolithic structure)的小行星在遭受撞击后会喷射出比原小行星小得多的碎片,而碎石堆结构(rubble-pile structure)的小行星在撞击作用下可分裂成大小和速度分布较为均匀的碎片。威胁指数的分析表明动能撞击方式确实有效减小了小行星的威胁程度,撞击后的最大剩余碎片可被成功偏移至安全轨道,但仍有部分碎片会与地球相撞。与完整结构相比,针对碎石堆结构小行星的撞击防御的总体效果更好,次生灾害主要为大质量碎片的撞击。研究方法可用于未来开展防御小行星的动能撞击任务的撞击条件选择和撞击结果预估。     

Gravitationally bound geoengineering dust shade at the inner Lagrange point

This paper presents a novel method of space-based geoengineering which uses the mass of a captured near Earth asteroid to gravitationally anchor a cloud of unprocessed dust in the vicinity of the _L1${\mathrm{L}}_1$ position to reduce the level of solar insolation at Earth. It has subsequently been shown that a cloud contained within the zero-velocity curve of the largest near Earth asteroid, Ganymed, can lead to an insolation reduction of 6.58% on Earth, which is significantly larger than the 1.7% required to offset a 2 °C increase in mean global temperature. The masses of the next largest near Earth asteroids are found to be too small to achieve the required level of insolation reduction, however, they are significant enough to be used as part of a portfolio of geoengineering schemes.     

Synergistic approach of asteroid exploitation and planetary protection

The asteroid and cometary impact hazard has long been recognised as an important issue requiring risk assessment and contingency planning. At the same time asteroids have also been acknowledged as possible sources of raw materials for future large-scale space engineering ventures. This paper explores possible synergies between these two apparently opposed views; planetary protection and space resource exploitation. In particular, the paper assumes a 5 tonne low-thrust spacecraft as a baseline for asteroid deflection and capture (or resource transport) missions. The system is assumed to land on the asteroid and provide a continuous thrust able to modify the orbit of the asteroid according to the mission objective. The paper analyses the capability of such a near-term system to provide both planetary protection and asteroid resources to Earth. Results show that a 5 tonne spacecraft could provide a high level of protection for modest impact hazards: airburst and local damage events (caused by 15–170 m diameter objects). At the same time, the same spacecraft could also be used to transport to bound Earth orbits significant quantities of material through judicious use of orbital dynamics and passively safe aero-capture manoeuvres or low energy ballistic capture. As will be shown, a 5 tonne low-thrust spacecraft could potentially transport between 12 and 350 times its own mass of asteroid resources by means of ballistic capture or aero-capture trajectories that pose very low dynamical pressures on the object.     

近地小行星采矿与防御计划发展现状

近地小行星交会、绕飞、着陆与采样返回技术经过数10年的发展日趋成熟。美国的OSIRIS-Rex对C类小行星进行特征分析与采样,日本宇宙航空研究开发机构的“隼鸟-2号”任务目的是小行星深层采样。美国国家航空航天局（NASA）和欧洲空间局（ESA）的小行星探测任务开始转向行星防御领域。NASA的ARM（Asteroid Redirect Mission）计划是开展小行星抓捕与轨道重定向,ESA联合NASA提出了小行星撞击与偏转评估计划,拟对双星系统开展撞击实验,为行星防御提供技术积累。此外,行星资源公司和深空工业公司分别规划了小行星商业采矿的蓝图,并已开展相关的在轨技术验证。对近地小行星的探测历程进行了回顾,重点介绍了OSIRIS-Rex、“隼鸟-2号”、NASA和ESA的行星防御计划及小行星采矿公司的商业采矿战略规划,总结了未来开展行星防御与采矿的关键技术。     

从日地系统L2出发借力月球飞越近地小行星

对于停留在日地系统L2的“嫦娥2号”探测器,其后续飞行方案有多个选项,例如主动撞月或重返月球轨道、返回地球轨道或再入大气、飞往地月系统L1/L2或日地系统L1、进入深空飞越近地小行星(最终,“嫦娥2号”于2012年12月13日成功地实现了对Toutatis小行星的近距离飞越)。探讨上述的飞行方案需要对飞行轨道进行初步设计,总的速度脉冲限制在100 m/s以内并且需要考虑探测器同时受到太阳、地球、月球的引力作用。本研究设计了探测器从日地系统L2出发借力月球实现Toutatis小行星飞越的飞行方案,与直接飞越方案相比,借力月球可以进一步节省探测器的燃料消耗,其等效速度脉冲设计值为58.47 m/s。     

China's Future Missions for Deep Space Exploration and Exoplanet Space Survey by 2030

Four future missions for deep space exploration and future space-based exoplanet surveys on habitable planets by 2030 are scheduled to be launched. Two Mars exploration missions are designed to investigate geological structure, the material on Martian surface, and retrieve returned samples. The asteroids and main belt comet exploration is expected to explore two objects within 10 years. The small-body mission will aim to land on the asteroid and get samples return to Earth. The basic physical characteristics of the two objects will be obtained through the mission. The exploration of Jupiter system will characterize the environment of Jupiter and the four largest Moons and understand the atmosphere of Jupiter. In addition, we further introduce two space-based exoplanet survey by 2030, Miyin Program and Closeby Habitable Exoplanet Survey (CHES Mission). Miyin program aims to detect habitable exoplanets using interferometry, while CHES mission expects to discover habitable exoplanets orbiting FGK stars within 10 pc through astrometry. The above-mentioned missions are positively to achieve breakthroughs in the field of planetary science.      

Measurements of bidirectional reflectance of ordinary chondrite for muses-C in-situ detection

MUSES-C, a Japanese sample return mission, is targeting a small near Earth asteroid, 1998SF36, which is considered an S-type asteroid and is similar in spectroscopy to LL class ordinary chondrite meteorite ([Binzel et al., 2001]). Although this mission will bring us detailed photometric data, that is, disk-resolved bidirectional reflectance data of the asteroid, there were few bidirectional reflectance data of ordinary chondrite meteorites. For the purpose of comparison with the data obtained by the in-situ observation, we have performed measurements of bidirectional reflectance of ordinary chondrite samples.

Here we summarize the result of our laboratory measurements of the bidirectional reflectance and compare them with the scattering property of 1998SF36. Although the geometric albedo of 1998SF36 is higher than the typical value of S-type asteroids, however, the laboratory data of ordinary chondrite are similar to or brighter than the model disk-resolved reflectance of 1998SF36 derived from disk-integrated ground-based data. We found in our laboratory data that there is a positive correlation between the surface roughness and the strength of the opposition effect. A stronger opposition effect in the reflectance of 1998SF36 than the laboratory data may therefore indicate that the surface of the asteroid has rougher structure than our laboratory samples.     

A mission concept for the low-cost large-scale exploration and characterisation of near earth objects

This paper presents the preliminary mission and science analysis of a new mission concept for the large scale, low-cost exploration of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). The concept is to enable close range observations of NEOs by performing close flybys of a series of NEOs at one of their nodal points, with pairs of small spacecraft flying in formation. The paper presents a preliminary assessment of accessible asteroids and multi-target tour trajectories from data available in the JPL small-body database.The main instruments on board each spacecraft are a camera and a LIDAR which together can be used for orbit determination, surface imaging, direct asteroid ranging and asteroid mass estimation via intersatellite ranging. The paper provides a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the measurable quantities during each flyby. In particular, the feasibility of a novel method of NEO mass estimation is assessed.     

探测地球自然灾害的一种方法

通过探测地球整体的辐射温度变化,即在空间把地球作为一个辐射点源对待,同时又将地球分成几百个局部,视为一个面源,进行实时的比较;又分别对太阳和宇宙背景的辐射温度变化进行测量,来了解地球表面和地气的热温度状况和太阳对地球、对宇宙背景能量传输的情况。从而研究地球上大规模灾害性事件(包括火山的爆发、地震、大气环流、气候变异等…)在整个地球上所能反映的热温度效应。探测地球在宇宙空间非平衡热状况下(太阳温度6000K;地球温度300K;空间背景3K)的耗散结构,研究在这种状况下物理力学的一些自会聚和自组织现象(即地球上灾害性事件形成过程),形成一门非平衡宇宙热力学,并使之成为一门实验科学。文章着重介绍为此目的实施的探测方法和其应用前景。     

Ray Structure of the Coronal Streamer Belt and Its Manifestation as Sharp Large Peaks of Solar Wind Plasma Density at the Earth''''s Orbit

The white-light corona calibrated data with processing level L1 from the LASCO-C2/SOHO instrument, and data from the Wind spacecraft with one-hour and one-minute time resolution on quasi-stationary slow (v between 300-450 km/s at the Earth's orbit) the Solar Wind (SW) parameters in the absence of sporadic SW streams are examined. Within distances from the Sun's center less than R in the range of 20-30 Rs, (Rs, the solar radius), slow wind is known as the streamer belt, and at larger distances it is called the He-liospheric Plasma Sheet (HPS). It is shown that the streamer belt comprises a sequence of pairs of rays. In general, ray brightnesses in each pair can differ, and the magnetic field is oppositely directed in them. The neutral line of the radial magnetic field of the Sun runs along the belt between the rays of each of the pairs. The area in which the streamer belt intersects the ecliptic plane and which lies at the central meridian, will be recorded at the earth's orbit with a time delay of 5-6 days, in the form of one or several peaks with Nmax> 10cm-3. Furthermore, the simplest density profile of the portion of the HCS has the form of two peaks of a different or identical amplitude . The such a profile is observed in cases where the angle of intersection of the streamer belt with the ecliptic plane near the Sun is sufficiently large, i.e. close to 90°. The two-ray structure of the cross-section of the streamer-belt moves from the Sun to the Earth, it retains not only the angular size of the peaks but also the relative density variations, and the position of the neutral line (sector boundary) in between. At the Earth's orbit the ray structure of the streamer belt provides the source for sharp (i.e. with steep fronts of a duration of a few minutes or shorter) solar wind plasma density peaks (of a duration of several hours) with maximum values Nmax> 10cm-3.     

Trajectory optimization of multiple asteroids exploration with asteroid 2010TK7 as main target

In this study, the Earth’s Trojan asteroid 2010 TK₇ is selected as the rendezvous target. The multiple flyby sequence of asteroid exploration was proposed by optimizing the probe’s orbit. Impulsive maneuvers and low-thrust propulsion were used respectively to design the trajectories of the multiple asteroids exploration mission. Under impulsive maneuvers, gravity assist technique was adopted to reduce fuel consumption. First a reference orbit with only 2010 TK₇ as the rendezvous target was designed. Then five asteroids near the reference orbit were selected as candidates. Finally, we obtained a multiple asteroids exploration sequence of three asteroids based on gravity assist technique and genetic algorithm, and an additional velocity impulse of 0.4?km/s was required. In the subsequent section, a sixth-degree inverse polynomial shape-based method is applied to the low-thrust trajectory design of 2010 TK₇, and the exploration sequence under the action of low-thrust propulsion was provided.     

Asteroid interception and disruption for terminal planetary defense

Modern techniques for planetary defense from comets and asteroids involve the deflection of the bolide via kinetic, gravitational, ablative, or radiative means. While potentially effective, none of these methods are capable of operating in a terminal interdiction mode wherethe threat is discovered with little time prior to impact. We present a practical and effective method for planetary defense which enables extremely short interdiction time scales, but can also operate within longer time scales and can be effective for extremely large threats. Called PI (“Pulverize It”), the method makes use of an array of hypervelocity penetrators which uses the kinetic energy of the asteroid or comet to disrupt it. In the terminal interdiction mode, the fragments of maximum $～10$ m diameter disperse laterally as they continue towards the Earth, and then enter the Earth’s atmosphere where they burn up as a series of airburst events which spatially and temporally de-correlate the energy of the original parent bolide for any arbitrary observer on the ground in the form of acoustical shockwaves and optical pulses. We show that terminal interdiction modes ranging from 2 minutes prior to impact for 20-meter class bolides (such as the Chelyabinsk asteroid), 1 day prior to impact for 100 m-class asteroids, 10 days prior to impact for Apophis-class asteroids ($～370$ m), and even 60 days prior to impact for 1 km-class threats are all possible, though longer warning times are always preferred. Using only technologies readily available today, the PI method allows for a cost-effective and practical roadmap towards robust planetary defense capability.     

Motion of ejecta around a binary system with an ellipsoid and a sphere

A kinetic impact occurs when an asteroid is moving. The impact may be caused by other small celestial body or an artificial object. Ejecta is produced from an impact. Dynamics of ejecta near a binary system which contains an ellipsoid and a sphere is analyzed. A phase diagram which comes from numerical simulation is shown in this work. The phase diagram shows a clear structure. Some special trajectories are also shown, which indicates a potential source of asteroid orbiting objects.     

Surface temperatures at the nearside of the Moon as a record of the radiation budget of Earth’s climate system

Understanding the balance between incoming radiation from the Sun and outgoing radiation from Earth is of critical importance in the study of climate change on Earth. As the only natural satellite of Earth, the Moon is a unique platform for the study of the disk-wide radiation budget of Earth. There are no complications from atmosphere, hydrosphere, or biosphere on the Moon. The nearside of the Moon allows for a focus on the solar radiation during its daytime, and on terrestrial radiation during its nighttime. Additionally, lunar regolith temperature is an amplifier of the terrestrial radiation signal because lunar temperature is proportional to the fourth square root of radiation as such is much more sensitive to the weak terrestrial radiation in nighttime than the strong solar radiation in daytime. Indeed, the long-term lunar surface temperature time series obtained inadvertently by the Heat Flow Experiment at the Apollo 15 landing site three decades ago may be the first important observation from deep space of both incoming and outgoing radiation of the terrestrial climate system. A revisit of the lunar surface temperature time series reveals distinct characteristics in lunar surface daytime and nighttime temperature variations, governed respectively by solar and terrestrial radiation.     

Rapid impactor sample return (RISR) mission scenario

Due to the long lead time and great expense of traditional sample return mission plans to Mars or other astronomical bodies, there is a need for a new and innovative way to return materials, potentially at a lower cost. The Rapid Impactor Sample Return (RISR) mission is one such proposal. The general mission scenario involves a single pass of Mars, a Martian moon or an asteroid at high speeds (7 km/s), with the sample return vehicle skimming just 1 or 2 m above a high point (such as a top ridge on Olympus Mons on Mars) and releasing an impactor. The impactor strikes the ground, throwing up debris. The debris with roughly the same forward velocity will be captured by the sample return vehicle and returned to Earth. There is no delay or orbit in the vicinity of Mars or the asteroid: RISR is a one-pass mission. This paper discusses some of the details of the proposal. Calculations are presented that address the question of how much material can be recovered with this technique. There are concerns about the effect of Mars tenuous atmosphere. However, it will be noted that such issues do not occur for RISR style missions to Phobos, Deimos, or asteroids and Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Recent test results in the missile defense community (IFTs 6–8 in 2001, 2002) have scored direct hits at better than 1 m accuracy with closing velocities of 7.6 km/s, giving the belief that accuracy and sensing issues are developed to a point that the RISR mission scenario is feasible.     

Small satellite survey mission to the second Earth moon

This paper presents an innovative space mission devoted to the survey of the small Earth companion asteroid by means of nano platforms. Also known as the second Earth moon, Cruithne, is the target identified for the mission. Both the trajectory to reach the target and a preliminary spacecraft budget are here detailed. The idea is to exploit high efficient ion thrusters to reduce the propellant mass fraction in such a high total impulse mission (of the order of 1e6 Ns). This approach allows for a 100 kg class spacecraft with a very small Earth escape energy (5 km²/s²) to reach the destination in about 320 days. The 31% propellant mass fraction allows for a payload mass fraction of the order of 8% and this is sufficient to embark on such a small spacecraft a couple of nano-satellites deployed once at the target to carry out a complete survey of the asteroid. Two 2U Cubesats are here considered as representative payload, but also other scientific payloads or different platforms might be considered according with the specific mission needs. The small spacecraft used to transfer these to the target guarantees the manoeuvre capabilities during the interplanetary journey, the protection against radiations along the path and the telecommunication relay functions for the data transmission with Earth stations. The approach outlined in the paper offers reliable solutions to the main issues associated with a deep space nano-satellite mission thus allowing the exploitation of distant targets by means of these tiny spacecraft. The study presents an innovative general strategy for the NEO observation and Cruithne is chosen as test bench. This target, however, mainly for its relevant inclination, requires a relatively large propellant mass fraction that can be reduced if low inclination asteroids are of interest. This might increase the payload mass fraction (e.g. additional Cubesats and/or additional scientific payloads on the main bus) for the same 100 kg class mission.     

Excavation of artificial caverns inside asteroids by leveraging rotational self-energy

Future space ventures will likely require exploitation of near-Earth asteroid resources. Moreover, it can be envisaged that asteroids may host habitats in their interiors. In fact, a cavern inside an asteroid would be a natural radiation shield against cosmic radiation and may also serve as a confined environment for storage of mined material such as water ice or other processed volatiles such as propellants. To this end, this paper proposes to leverage the asteroid rotational self-energy to remove material from the asteroid interiors and create a spherical cavern, by means of the orbital siphon concept. The siphon is a chain of tether-connected payload masses (the asteroid material), which exploits the rotation of the asteroid for the delivery of mass from the asteroid to escape. Under certain conditions the siphon can be initiated to ensure self-sustained flow of mass from the asteroid to escape. A net orbital siphon effect is generated by connecting new payloads at the bottom of the chain while releasing the upper payloads. Key parameters are discussed, such as the required siphon dimension and the maximum size of the internal cavity that can be excavated, as a function of the asteroid rotational period. Moreover, assuming elastic material behaviour, a closed-form expression for the stress tensor is found and a failure criterion is used to identify regions in the asteroid interiors subjected to the larger stresses. It is shown that the conditions for failure are relaxed as the radius of the internal void increases.     

近地小行星2016HO3表面温度建模研究

2019年4月18日,中国国家航天局(CNSA)公布了小行星探测计划,将近地小行星2016HO3作为探测任务目标之一。主要梳理了2016HO3热环境分析的要素,通过调研国际上目前观测数据,得到2016HO3的初步环境参数,使用近地小行星热模型(NEATM)与小行星热物理模型(TPM)开展了小行星2016HO3表面温度场建模与分析,综合得出小行星温度上限为412 K;同时结合其可能的自转条件,仿真分析了不同位置的昼夜温差变化特性,发现2016HO3最大温差大约为30 K。由于两个模型均不能直接处理极夜情况,在TPM模型基础上采用对自转周期光照进行平均思路,给出了极夜条件下的温度分析方法,并获得小行星2016HO3的温度下限。