Geomagnetic activity indicators for geomagnetically induced current studies in South Africa

Intense geomagnetic activity is known to give rise to large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power transmission grids. Recordings of geomagnetic activity provide an efficient and economical way for power transmission system operators to assess GIC risks in retrospective studies. This study investigates local geomagnetic indicators (i.e., hourly peak value, hourly range indicator and hourly standard deviation) in order to determine their usefulness for understanding the drivers of GICs in the South African power network. Results show that the GICs have a higher correlation with the geomagnetic indicators derived from the East–West component of the horizontal geomagnetic field, than the indicators derived from the North–South component of the horizontal field. This directional dependence corresponds very well with the North–South orientation of the power lines feeding the power transformers at the South African Grassridge electrical substation GIC site. It therefore follows that, the geoelectric field driving the GICs at Grassridge is North–South oriented. Further, it is shown that the hourly range indicator has a higher correlation with the GICs than the hourly standard deviation for this particular network configuration.     

Ionospheric storm due to solar Coronal mass ejection in September 2017 over the Brazilian and African longitudes

Coronal mass ejection (CME) occurs when there is an abrupt release of a large amount of solar plasma, and this cloud of plasma released by the Sun has an intrinsic magnetic field. In addition, CMEs often follow solar flares (SF). The CME cloud travels outward from the Sun to the interplanetary medium and eventually hits the Earth’s system. One of the most significant aspects of space weather is the ionospheric response due to SF or CME. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, and the number of particles are relevant parameters of the CME when it hits the Earth’s system. A geomagnetic storm is most geo-efficient when the plasma cloud has an interplanetary magnetic field southward and it is accompanied by an increase in the solar wind speed and particle number density. We investigated the ionospheric response (F-region) in the Brazilian and African sectors during a geomagnetic storm event on September 07–10, 2017, using magnetometer and GPS-TEC networks data. Positive ionospheric disturbances are observed in the VTEC during the disturbed period (September 07–08, 2017) over the Brazilian and African sectors. Also, two latitudinal chains of GPS-TEC stations from the equatorial region to low latitudes in the East and West Brazilian sectors and another chain in the East African sector are used to investigate the storm time behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). We noted that the EIA was disturbed in the American and African sectors during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Also, the Brazilian sector was more disturbed than the African sector.     

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据，分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向．分析结果表明，所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的．通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照，发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素．同样条件下，运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱。     

Geomagnetic storm effects on the occurrences of ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region

The study investigated the effects of intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 on the occurrences of large scale ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region. Four major/intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 were analyzed for this study. These storms occurred on 17th March 2015 (?229?nT), 22nd June 2015 (?204?nT), 7th October 2015 (?124?nT), and 20th December 2015 (?170?nT). Total Electron Content (TEC) data obtained from five African Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations, grouped into eastern and western sectors were used to derive the ionospheric irregularities proxy indices, e.g., rate of change of TEC (ROT), ROT index (ROTI) and ROTI daily average (ROTI_AVE). These indices were characterized alongside with the disturbance storm time (Dst), the Y component of the Interplanetary Electric Field (IEFy), polar cap (PC) index and the H component of the Earth’s magnetic field from ground-based magnetometers. Irregularities manifested in the form of fluctuations in TEC. Prompt penetration of electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) modulated the behaviour of irregularities during the main and recovery phases of the geomagnetic storms. The effect of electric field over both sectors depends on the local time of southward turning of IMF Bz. Consequently, westward electric field inhibited irregularities during the main phase of March and October 2015 geomagnetic storms, while for the June 2015 storm, eastward electric field triggered weak irregularities over the eastern sector. The effect of electric field on irregularities during December 2015 storm was insignificant. During the recovery phase of the storms, westward DDEF suppressed irregularities.     

Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed at South African midlatitudes during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetically disturbed period

This paper presents traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) observations from GPS measurements over the South African region during the geomagnetically disturbed period of 29–31 October 2003. Two receiver arrays, which were along two distinct longitudinal sectors of about 18°-20° and 27°-28° were used in order to investigate the amplitude, periods and virtual propagation characteristics of the storm induced ionospheric disturbances. The study revealed a large sudden TEC increase on 28 October 2003, the day before the first of the two major storms studied here, that was recorded simultaneously by all the receivers used. This pre-storm enhancement was linked to an X-class solar flare, auroral/magnetospheric activities and vertical plasma drift, based on the behaviour of the geomagnetic storm and auroral indices as well as strong equatorial electrojet. Diurnal trends of the TEC and foF2 measurements revealed that the geomagnetic storm caused a negative ionospheric storm; these parameters were depleted between 29 and 31 October 2003. Large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed on the days of the geomagnetic storms (29 and 31 October 2003), using line-of-sight vertical TEC (vTEC) measurements from individual satellites. Amplitude and dominant periods of these structures varied between 0.08–2.16 TECU, and 1.07–2.13 h respectively. The wave structures were observed to propagate towards the equator with velocities between 587.04 and 1635.09 m/s.     

The response of the ionosphere over Ilorin to some geomagnetic storms

The effects of some geomagnetic storms on the F2 layer peak parameters over Ilorin, Nigeria (Lat. 8:53°N, Long. 4.5°E, dip angle, −2.96°) have been investigated. Our results showed that the highest intensity of the noon bite-out occurred during the March equinox and lowest during the June Solstice on quiet days. Quiet day NmF2 disturbances which appeared as a pre-storm enhancement, but not related to the magnetic storm event that followed were observed at this station. These enhancements were attributed to the modification of the equatorial electric field as a result of injection of the Auroral electric field to the low and equatorial ionosphere. For disturbed conditions, the morphology of the NmF2 on quiet days is altered. Daytime and nighttime NmF2 and hmF2 enhancements were recorded at this station. Decreases in NmF2 were also observed during the recovery periods, most of which appeared during the post-noon period, except the storm event of May 28–29. On the average, enhancements in NmF2 (i.e. Positive phases) are the prominent features of this station. Observations from this study also indicate that Dst, Ap and Kp which have been the most widely used indices in academic research in describing the behavior of geomagnetic storms, are not sufficient for storm time analysis in the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere.     

由太阳爆发事件特征预报地磁暴方法研究

CME是非重现性地磁暴的诱因,通过对太阳耀斑爆发活动的特征与可能引起地磁活动的CME进行统计分析,发现太阳耀斑的强度、位置、持续时间以及耀斑所伴随的太阳质子事件和行星际高能质子通量的增长与CME的特征及可能产生的地磁扰动有着密切的关系.在对数据分析的基础上,建立了基于人工神经网络的预报模式,对太阳耀斑爆发活动所引起的地磁扰动的发生及Ap指数进行了预报,取得了较好的结果.      

宇宙线变化特征在强地磁暴预报中的应用

利用宇宙线中子探测数据定性分析了地面宇宙线多台站之间的相互联系以及大磁暴与宇宙线之间的响应关系. 以Irkutsk和Oulu宇宙线台站为例, 运用小波去噪技术提高数据的稳定性. 结果表明, 相同世界时条件下, 两站宇宙线通量相关性在事件发生时较高; 而相同地方时条件下, 相关性则在平静期较高. 进一步采用相同地方时条件对不同宇宙线台站的通量在平静期和扰动期的相对变化进行分析, 选取2004年7月强地磁暴典型事例进行直观分析, 发现大地磁暴前Irkutsk和Oulu台站的宇宙线相对通量发生明显差异, 可以尝试作为强地磁暴宇宙线先兆特征. 通过对2001年3月至2005年5月的强磁暴和中强磁暴进行统计, 得到与强地磁暴相关的适当宇宙线相对差异阈值. 将得到的阈值对2005年9月至2011年12月所有强磁暴及中强磁暴进行验证, 总成功率达到87.5%, 误报率为35.7%, 结果较好.      

CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法

以1997-2003年期间的73个日冕物质抛射(CME)激波扰动事件和模糊数学为基础,提出了一种预报地磁扰动的方法.该方法以CME事件爆发的日面经纬度、相关地磁扰动事件的渡越时间、地磁扰动指数、IPS观测的太阳风速度跃变量为基础,建立了预报CME地磁扰动事件的μθ,μφ,μT,μM,μ△v从属函数,考虑了CME初始速度对激波到达时间的影响.以这5个从属函数为基础并利用模糊数学对1996-2004年期间73个经行星际闪烁(IPS)观测认证的CME激波引起的地磁扰动事件进行了预报实验.实验结果表明,磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,△Tpre/Tobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的91.78%,而△Tpre/Tobs＞30%的事件占总事件数的12.33%;磁扰幅度(∑Kp)大小的预报,其相对误差△∑Kp/∑Kpobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的60.27%,相对误差≥50%的事件占总事件数的12.33%.这表明该预报方法对空间灾害性事件地磁扰动的定量预报具有很大应用潜力.      

1998年4月下旬至5月上旬地磁暴的日地事件认证

综合运用SOHO／LASCO、SOHO／EIT关于CME的观测结果和WIND飞船关于太阳风的观测记录，识别了1998年4月下旬至5月上旬发生的磁暴的CME源，分析了与5月初强磁暴群相联系的日地事件。结果表明，所用日地扰动事件关系认证的方法是可行的，本文就上述日地事件所涉及的磁暴群与活动区的关系、CME地磁效应的日面东西不对称性以及磁云与高速流的作用等问题进行了讨论。     

Installation and preliminary data analysis of Penang magnetic data Acquisition system (MAGDAS) in Malaysia

MAGDAS PEN was established on 19th September 2019 as one of the MAGDAS observatory arrays located at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) (5.15°, 100.50°). The main objective of the MAGDAS project is to monitor global electromagnetic and the ambient plasma density in the geospace environment. This installation has contributed to a better understanding of the Sun-Earth coupling system. This paper presents the installation process of one of the MAGDAS magnetometers named YU-8 T magnetic sensor and provides a preliminary analysis of geomagnetic HDZ components amplitude-time that was observed at PEN station. A one-month HDZ-geomagnetic field data was processed from 1st November to 30th November 2019. The daily variations with a consistent pattern in delta H geomagnetic field components are observed throughout the day with eastward electric field effects that are observed during solar peak hours. The delta H-component gradually increases around 0700LT and reaches the maximum reading at 1300LT with a range of value ~ 40-70nT. The value slowly decreases that started from 1400LT until the night time. The reading during the night time shows a constant variation with magnitude varies in between ?10nT to + 10nT. The average H-component value of the night time is used as the baseline for the observation system. Overall, the observed trends portray a good sign of solar quiet field and Sq with no solar-terrestrial disturbances.     

Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

Effects of CME and CIR induced geomagnetic storms on low-latitude ionization over Indian longitudes in terms of neutral dynamics

This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12–20, 2016 and May 26–31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the storms. Prominent peaks in diurnal maximum in excess of 20–45 TECU over the quiet time values were observed during the October 2016 storm at Lucknow, Indore, Hyderabad, Bangalore and 10–20 TECU for the May 2017 storm at Siliguri, Indore, Calcutta and Hyderabad. The GUVI images onboard TIMED spacecraft that measures the thermospheric O/N₂ ratio, showed high values (O/N₂ ratio of about 0.7) on October 16 when positive storm effects were observed compared to the other days during the storm period. The observed features have been explained in terms of the O/N₂ ratio increase in the equatorial thermosphere, CIR-induced High Speed Solar Wind (HSSW) event for the October 2016 storm. The TEC enhancement has also been explained in terms of the Auroral Electrojet (AE), neutral wind values obtained from the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM14) and equatorial electrojet strength from magnetometer data for both October 2016 and May 2017 storms. These results are one of the first to be reported from the Indian longitude sector on influence of CME- and CIR-driven geomagnetic storms on TEC during the declining phase of solar cycle 24.     

地磁急始年发生数周期特征的小波分析

采用小波分析方法分析了急始年发生数的时间序列的周期特征，并对急始发生数的特征与太阳黑子相对数的特征进行了简要的对照分析，分析结果表明，急始发生数的周期规律与太阳黑子相对数的周期规律是有差异的．还进行了太阳黑子相对数与急始数的相关性，太阳黑子相对数与急始磁暴的相关性研究，分析结果表明它们之间显著相关．还对急始数与急始磁暴致以及其他的一些参数之间的相关性进行了分析，最后对分析结果进行了讨论．     

Contribution of geometry of interaction between interplanetary and terrestrial magnetic fields into global magnetospheric state and geomagnetic activity

The paper presents results of our study of dependence of geomagnetic activity from geoeffective parameters taking into account mutual orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, electric field of the solar wind and geomagnetic moment. We attract a reconnection model elaborated by us made allowance for changes of geometry of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction during annual and diurnal motions of the Earth. We take as our data base the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind velocity measured at 1 a.u. at ecliptic plane for the period of 1963–2005 and K_p, D_st, a_m indices. Taken as a whole a geoeffective parameter suggested by us explains 95% of observed variations of the indices. Changes of the geometric factor determined by mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment explain larger than 75% of observed statistical variations of D_st and a_m indices. Based on our results we suggest a new explanation of semi-annual and UT variation of geomagnetic activity.     

Spread-F occurrence during geomagnetic storms near the southern crest of the EIA in Argentina

This work presents, for the first time, the analysis of the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities during geomagnetic storms at Tucumán, Argentina, a low latitude station in the Southern American longitudinal sector (26.9°S, 294.6°E; magnetic latitude 15.5°S) near the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Three geomagnetic storms occurred on May 27, 2017 (a month of low occurrence rates of spread-F), October 12, 2016 (a month of transition from low to high occurrence rates of spread-F) and November 7, 2017 (a month of high occurrence rates of spread-F) are analyzed using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and ionosondes. The rate of change of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI), GPS Ionospheric L-band scintillation, the virtual height of the F-layer bottom side (h'F) and the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) are considered. Furthermore, each ionogram is manually examined for the presence of spread-F signatures.The results show that, for the three events studied, geomagnetic activity creates favorable conditions for the initiation of ionospheric irregularities, manifested by ionogram spread-F and TEC fluctuation. Post-midnight irregularities may have occurred due to the presence of eastward disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEF). For the May storm, an eastward over-shielding prompt penetration electric field, (PPEF) is also acting. A possibility is that the PPEF is added to the DDEF and produces the uplifting of the F region that helps trigger the irregularities. Finally, during October and November, strong GPS L band scintillation is observed associated with strong range spread-F (SSF), that is, irregularities extending from the bottom-side to the topside of the F region.     

Response of the lower atmosphere to intense geomagnetic storms

In this short paper we examine the possible connection between atmospheric parameters measured at low and middle altitudes and geomagnetic storms occurred in 2000 and 2003. For that, from a chain of stations located near the meridian 60°W we compare the storm time values of temperature and wind speed with their standard deviation 2σ obtained from quiet time values. We observed statistically significant variations at several altitudes during the storm recovery phase and after it, both in neutral wind speed and temperature. The results obtained suggest that atmospheric parameters could be affected by geomagnetic storms.     

Polar caps and auroral zones under idealized axisymmetric magnetic fields

The geomagnetic field, modified by the solar wind, determines the shape, area and location of polar caps and auroral zones, among other magnetosphere and upper atmosphere characteristics. Since the field varies greatly with time it is of interest to analyze polar caps and auroral zones variations linked to magnetic field variations of intensity and pattern. Polar caps and auroral zones locations and areas for various single harmonic axial field configurations are obtained analytically assuming a simple magnetopause model. As the axial degree n increases, the polar caps and auroral zones total number, given by n + 1 and 2n respectively, also increase. However, their total areas decrease from a larger value in the case of an axial dipole to a minimum for an axial octupole (n = 3), and then increase for increasing degrees. The increasing rate is much higher in the auroral zones case to the point that it exceeds the dipolar value at n = 5 while in the polar caps case this occurs at n = 8. The absolute latitudes of the auroral zones and polar caps that reside around the geographical poles increase with axial degree. Our results represent an end-member case of the evolution of auroral zones and polar caps during polarity reversals if the transition involves axial dipole energy cascade to higher axial degrees. Evidence for such an energy transfer is found in the historical record of the geomagnetic secular variation.     

Statistical analysis of geomagnetic field variations during solar eclipses

We investigate the geomagnetic field variations recorded by INTERMAGNET geomagnetic observatories, which are observed while the Moon’s umbra or penumbra passed over them during a solar eclipse event. Though it is generally considered that the geomagnetic field can be modulated during solar eclipses, the effect of the solar eclipse on the observed geomagnetic field has proved subtle to be detected. Instead of exploring the geomagnetic field as a case study, we analyze 207 geomagnetic manifestations acquired by 100 geomagnetic observatories during 39 solar eclipses occurring from 1991 to 2016. As a result of examining a pattern of the geomagnetic field variation on average, we confirm that the effect can be seen over an interval of 180?min centered at the time of maximum eclipse on a site of a geomagnetic observatory. That is, demonstrate an increase in the Y component of the geomagnetic field and decreases in the X component and the total strength of the geomagnetic field. We also find that the effect can be overwhelmed, depending more sensitively on the level of daily geomagnetic events than on the level of solar activity and/or the phase of solar cycle. We have demonstrated it by dividing the whole data set into subsets based on parameters of the geomagnetic field, solar activity, and solar eclipses. It is suggested, therefore, that an evidence of the solar eclipse effect can be revealed even at the solar maximum, as long as the day of the solar eclipse is magnetically quiet.