Re-entry of orbital debris observed by Chung-Li VHF radar with MEDAC

MEDAC (Meteor Echo Detection and Collection) system, a product of University of Colorado, has become part of Chung-Li VHF facilities since July 12, 1989. MEDAC is installed to observe the mesospheric winds from Doppler echos returned by meteor trails in the upper atmosphere. However, the time variations in the in-phase and quadrature components of the signals can be used to derive the time history of the meteor trail formation. The meteor flight speed in the atmosphere is hence deduced. Preliminary analysis of some data taken from July 12 to July 17 of 1989 indicates that there are some “meteor” trails that could have been produced by the reentry of orbital debris into the atmosphere. The criteria of the flight speed and the ionization height are used for selecting an orbital debris trail from pools of “meteor” trails. The relative flux intensities between the reentry orbital debris flux as tentatively identified in this paper and the meteor flux is about 1 to 100.     

Atmospheric drag modelling for orbital micro-debris at LEO altitudes

Data from satellite impact experiments and the scanning of recovered spacecraft offers an extended timebase to examine, using a consistent methodology, the microparticle fluxes. New penetration data from the TiCCE experiment on Eureca /1, 2/ adds to this database and shows that - despite an expected growth in the micro-debris flux - the observed flux is not greater than either LDEF or SMM. The question arises: “is this consistent with the micro particle flux being dominated by space debris or by meteoroids”.

To assist this assessment, numerical modelling using the Gear method /3/ of explicit time integration of the atmospheric drag lifetime of micron dimensioned orbital debris in both circular (LEO) and eccentric (GTO) orbits has been performed for the relevant space exposures. Results are applied to the data to examine whether the recent variations in flux can be attributed to varying levels of, orbital micro-debris caused by atmospheric drag and its changes during the solar cycle.     

流星参数的数值分析和流星高度分布模型

流星余迹能够被后向散射雷达观测到, 利用观测结果, 可以分析和研究流星的空间分布和时间变化规律. 同时, 利用流星空间分布还可以进行空间碎片的研究. 基于标准理论, 对影响雷达回波功率的主要因素, 例如如双极扩散、余迹的初始半径、流星的有限速度, 以及雷达的脉冲重复频率在不同频率和速度下进行了数值分析和计算, 得到的流星衰减时间及双极扩散系数的观测结果与理论结果一致. 通过对昆明流星雷 达观测到的571632个流星进行统计分析, 得到了流星高度分布统计模型, 并利用该模型的分析结果与不同月份流星的观测数据进行对比, 结果比较一致.      

The ratio of hazardous meteoroids to orbital debris in near-Earth space

Orbital debris is known to pose a substantial threat to Earth-orbiting spacecraft at certain altitudes. For instance, the orbital debris flux near Sun-synchronous altitudes of 600–800 km is particularly high due in part to the 2007 Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test and the 2009 Iridium-Kosmos collision. At other altitudes, however, the orbital debris population is minimal and the primary impactor population is not man-made debris particles but naturally occurring meteoroids. While the spacecraft community has some awareness of the risk posed by debris, there is a common misconception that orbital debris impacts dominate the risk at all locations. In this paper, we present a damage-limited comparison between meteoroids and orbital debris near the Earth for a range of orbital altitude and inclination, using NASA’s latest models for each environment. Overall, orbital debris dominates the impact risk between altitudes of 600 and 1300 km, while meteoroids dominate below 270 km and above 4800 km.     

基于解体事件的空间碎片轨道演化算法研究

针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程,进行了数学分析,确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量,在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更,本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数,分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下,空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况,给出了相关结果,结果表明此算法可行。     

长时间流星不均匀体母体特征个例研究

流星体坠入地球大气烧蚀电离产生流星等离子体尾迹,在等离子体不稳定性过程作用下产生流星不均匀体.利用光学视频和无线电雷达在低纬三亚开展流星体烧蚀和流星不均匀体综合探测结果,发展了一种获取流星不均匀体母体（流星体）特征参数的方法,并对2015年12月双子座流星雨期间观测的一次长持续时间流星不均匀体事例进行了分析,得到了其母体速度、质量和轨道等特征,结果显示产生这次流星不均匀体的流星体速度和轨道等具有双子座流星特点.该方法可应用于流星不均匀体及其母体特征研究.      

Local orbital debris flux study in the geostationary ring

A local orbital debris flux analysis is performed in the geostationary (GEO) ring to investigate how frequently near-miss events occur for each longitude slot in the GEO ring. The current resident space object (RSO) environment at GEO is evaluated, and publicly-available two-line element (TLE) data are utilized in tandem with a geostationary torus configuration to simulate near-miss events incurred by the trackable RSO population at GEO. Methodology for determining near-miss events with this formulation is introduced, and the results of the analysis for a one-year time frame are provided to illustrate the need for active GEO remediation.     

Characterizing space debris longitude-dependent distribution based on RAAN perturbation rate

The space debris environment is one of the major threats against payloads. Space debris orbital distribution is of great importance for space debris environment modeling. Due to perturbation factors, the Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) of space objects changes consistently, causing regular rotation of the orbit plane around Earth’s axis. Based on the investigation of the RAAN perturbation rate of concerned objects, this paper proposes a RAAN discretization method in order to present the space debris longitude-dependent distribution. Combined with two line element (TLE) data provided by the US Space Surveillance Network, the estimated value from RAAN discretization method is compared with the real case. The results suggest that using only the initial orbital data at the beginning of the time interval of interest, the RAAN discretization method is able to provide reliable longitude distribution of concerned targets in the next following period. Furthermore, spacecraft cumulative flux against space debris is calculated in this paper. The results suggest that the relevance between spacecraft RAAN setup and flux output is much smaller for LEO targets than MEO targets, which corresponds with the theory analysis. Since the nonspherical perturbation is the major factor for RAAN variation, the RAAN perturbation rate has little connection with the size of orbital objects. In other words, the RAAN discretization method introduced in this paper also applies to space debris of different size range, proposing a possible suggestion for the improvement of space debris environment engineering models.     

On the effect of considering more realistic particle shape and mass parameters in MMOD risk assessments

One of the primary mission risks tracked in the development of all spacecraft is that due to micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD). Both types of particles, especially those larger than 0.1 mm in diameter, contain sufficient kinetic energy due to their combined mass and velocities to cause serious damage to crew members and spacecraft. The process used to assess MMOD risk consists of three elements: environment, damage prediction, and damage tolerance. Orbital debris risk assessments for the Orion vehicle, as well as the Shuttle, Space Station and other satellites use ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that have been developed using high speed impact test data and results from numerical simulations that have used spherical projectiles. However, spheres are not expected to be a common shape for orbital debris; rather, orbital debris fragments might be better represented by other regular or irregular solids. In this paper we examine the general construction of NASA’s current orbital debris (OD) model, explore the potential variations in orbital debris mass and shape that are possible when using particle characteristic length to define particle size (instead of assuming spherical particles), and, considering specifically the Orion vehicle, perform an orbital debris risk sensitivity study taking into account variations in particle mass and shape as noted above. While the results of the work performed for this study are preliminary, they do show that continuing to use aluminum spheres in spacecraft risk assessments could result in an over-design of its MMOD protection systems. In such a case, the spacecraft could be heavier than needed, could cost more than needed, and could cost more to put into orbit than needed. The results obtained in this study also show the need to incorporate effects of mass and shape in mission risk assessment prior to first flight of any spacecraft as well as the need to continue to develop/refine BLEs so that they more accurately reflect the shape and material density variations inherent to the actual debris environment.     

Cometary/meteor coupling: structure of young streams.

Information on atmospheric parameters, properties and processes above 70 km are mainly based upon meteor data. An important problem of such data systematization is to single out the meteor streams associated with a series of extreme phenomena. The forecasting of these phenomena requires a physical model of meteor streams at the early stage of their occurrence. A direct coupling with comets is assumed for most of the streams. This paper analyses the structure simulation of cometary nucleus desintegration. The D-criterion is used as the orbital community criterion. Giacobini-Zinner comet in its ten appearances (1900-1979) is considered. Determination of stream location and its detailed structural characteristics is essential for long space missions.     

一种基于TLE数据的轨道异常分析方法

空间在轨物体的轨道异常是航天工程及预警领域普遍关注的问题,及时发现轨道异常意义重大,通过分析空间物体的轨道异常,可以及时发现和识别规避事件或碰撞事件,还可以了解监测网的能力.本文提出一种基于TLE数据的简单的轨道异常分析方法——长半轴变化法.该方法快速有效,应用到低轨在用卫星和美俄解体碎片的异常分析中,异常物体正确识别率可达到100%;对美俄解体碎片进行轨道异常分析后得出,美国空间监视网可以稳定探测90%以上的解体碎片.      

A deorbiter CubeSat for active orbital debris removal

This paper introduces a mission concept for active removal of orbital debris based on the utilization of the CubeSat form factor. The CubeSat is deployed from a carrier spacecraft, known as a mothership, and is equipped with orbital and attitude control actuators to attach to the target debris, stabilize its attitude, and subsequently move the debris to a lower orbit where atmospheric drag is high enough for the bodies to burn up. The mass and orbit altitude of debris objects that are within the realms of the CubeSat’s propulsion capabilities are identified. The attitude control schemes for the detumbling and deorbiting phases of the mission are specified. The objective of the deorbiting maneuver is to decrease the semi-major axis of the debris orbit, at the fastest rate, from its initial value to a final value of about 6471?km (i.e., 100?km above Earth considering a circular orbit) via a continuous low-thrust orbital transfer. Two case studies are investigated to verify the performance of the deorbiter CubeSat during the detumbling and deorbiting phases of the mission. The baseline target debris used in the study are the decommissioned KOMPSAT-1 satellite and the Pegasus rocket body. The results show that the deorbiting times for the target debris are reduced significantly, from several decades to one or two years.     

Debris flux comparisons from the Goldstone Radar,Haystack Radar,and Hax Radar prior,during, and after the last solar maximum

The continual monitoring of the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 to 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors.     

The new ESA meteoroid model

The orbital distributions of meteoroids in interplanetary space are revised in the ESA meteoroid model to account for recently obtained observational data and to comply with the constraints due to the orbital evolution under planetary gravity and Poynting–Robertson effects. Infrared observations of the zodiacal cloud by the COBE DIRBE instrument, in situ flux measurements by the dust detectors on board Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft, and the crater size distributions on lunar rock samples retrieved by the Apollo missions are synthesized into a single model. Within the model, the orbital distributions are expanded into a sum of contributions due to a number of known sources, including the asteroid belt with the emphasis on the prominent families Themis, Koronis, Eos and Veritas, as well as comets on Jupiter-encountering orbits. An attempt to incorporate the meteor orbit database acquired by the AMOR radar is also discussed.     

非相干散射雷达的空间碎片参数统计分析

采用匹配滤波方法处理了非相干散射雷达的原始采样数据(时长约7h), 共检测到394个空间碎片, 估算了其轨道高度、径向速度、散射截面、等效直径及径向加速度等参数, 统计分析了这些参数的变化特征, 得到穿过雷达 波束的空间碎片流量约为60h-1, 信噪比为10～1000, 空间碎片主要分布在600～1100km和1400～1600km两个高度区间, 散射截面 10-5～10-2m2, 等效直径3～10cm, 径向速度-1.5～1.5km·s-1, 径向加速度20～90m·s-2, 这对于中国的空间碎片探测与研究具有重要参考意义.      

基于期望最大算法的空间事件及异常值探测

美国ELSET数据库提供的TLE数据是目前使用最广泛的数据,在热层大气密度反演、弹道系数估计、碰撞预警等领域具有重要作用。受空间环境扰动、空间事件以及TLE产生过程等共同影响,ELSET数据库包含大量亟待清理的异常值和识别的空间事件,例如发布错误的TLE、轨道根数异常和Bstar异常。现有方法在清理异常轨道根数时缺乏统一性,需要使用不同的技术,清理流程较为繁杂,并且仅适用于特定轨道区域的少数目标。为克服现有方法的弊端,提出了一种基于期望最大算法的滑动窗口–多项式拟合预报方法,对含有轨道机动的碎片以及受空间环境影响的碎片进行异常值与空间事件探测。研究表明,该方法能够灵活处理不同空间环境下的异常值与空间事件探测,具有普适性,适用于所有轨道碎片。      

Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements

The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only.     

Practical method to identify orbital anomaly as spacecraft breakup in the geostationary region

Identifying spacecraft breakup events is an essential issue for better understanding of the current orbital debris environment. This paper proposes an observation planning approach to identify an orbital anomaly, which appears as a significant discontinuity in archived orbital history, as a spacecraft breakup. The proposed approach is applicable to orbital anomalies in the geostationary region. The proposed approach selects a spacecraft that experienced an orbital anomaly, and then predicts trajectories of possible fragments of the spacecraft at an observation epoch. This paper theoretically demonstrates that observation planning for the possible fragments can be conducted. To do this, long-term behaviors of the possible fragments are evaluated. It is concluded that intersections of their trajectories will converge into several corresponding regions in the celestial sphere even if the breakup epoch is not specified and it has uncertainty of the order of several weeks.     

廊坊中频雷达流星观测及初步结果

中频雷达用来开展夜间100km高度以上的流星观测,获得流星随时间、高度、方位的分布情况及流星体速度、流星辐射点、流星余迹径向速度等参数,其探测数据可用于流星天文学、中层大气动力学等领域的研究.利用2017年11月16日12:00UT-22:00UT期间廊坊观测站（39.4°N,116.7°E）的中频雷达数据,首次开展了中国中纬度地区夜间流星观测实验,共检测到94个流星回波信号,集中分布在97～115km高度范围内,平均高度为106.5km,计算得到了流星回波的双极扩散系数、方位分布等相关参数,并与国外中频雷达流星探测结果进行了初步比较.