Relative occurrence rate and geoeffectiveness of large-scale types of the solar wind

We investigate the relative occurrence rate for various types of the solar wind and their geoeffectiveness for magnetic storms with Dst < —50 nT. Both integrated effect for the entire time 1976–2000 and variations during this period of 2.5 cycles of solar activity are studied As raw data for the analysis we have used the catalog of large-scale types of the solar wind for the period 1976-2000 (see ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/omni/) created by us with the use of the OMNI database (http://omni.web.gsgc.nasa.gov) [1] and described in detail in [2]. The average annual numbers of different type of events are as follows: 124 ±81 for the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), 8 ±6 for magnetic clouds (MC), 99 ±38 for Ejecta, 46 ±19 for Sheath before Ejecta, 6 ±5 for Sheath before MC, and 63 ±15 for CIR. The measurements that allowed one to determine a source in the solar wind were available only for 58% of moderate and strong magnetic storms (with index Dst < —50 nT) during the period 1976–2000. Magnetic clouds (MC) are shown to be the most geoeffective (~61%). The CIR events and Ejecta with Sheath region are three times less geoeffective (~20–21 %). Variations of occurrence rate and geoeffectiveness of various types of the solar wind in the solar cycle are discussed.     

Statistical study of interplanetary condition effect on geomagnetic storms: 2. Variations of parameters

We investigate the behavior of mean values of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s (IMF) parameters and their absolute and relative variations during the magnetic storms generated by various types of the solar wind. In this paper, which is a continuation of paper [1], we, on the basis of the OMNI data archive for the period of 1976–2000, have analyzed 798 geomagnetic storms with D _st ≤ −50 nT and their interplanetary sources: corotating interaction regions CIR, compression regions Sheath before the interplanetary CMEs; magnetic clouds MC; “Pistons” Ejecta, and an uncertain type of a source. For the analysis the double superposed epoch analysis method was used, in which the instants of the magnetic storm onset and the minimum of the D _st index were taken as reference times. It is shown that the set of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms can be sub-divided into two basic groups according to their slowly and fast varying characteristics: (1) ICME (MC and Ejecta) and (2) CIR and Sheath. The mean values, the absolute and relative variations in MC and Ejecta for all parameters appeared to be either mean or lower than the mean value (the mean values of the electric field E _y and of the B _z component of IMF are higher in absolute value), while in CIR and Sheath they are higher than the mean value. High values of the relative density variation sN/〈N〉 are observed in MC. At the same time, the high values for relative variations of the velocity, B _z component, and IMF magnitude are observed in Sheath and CIR. No noticeable distinctions in the relationships between considered parameters for moderate and strong magnetic storms were observed.     

Statistical investigation of heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms

Time behavior of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters is investigated for 623 magnetic storms of the OMNI database for the period 1976–2000. The analysis is carried out by the superposed epoch technique (the magnetic storm onset time is taken to be the beginning of an epoch) for five various categories of storms induced by various types of solar wind: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). In total, the analysis conducted for “all storms” included 623 storms. The obtained data, on one hand, confirm the results obtained earlier without selecting the intervals according to the solar wind types, and, on the other hand, they indicate the existence of distinctions in the time variation of parameters for various types of solar wind. Though the lowest values of the B _z-component of IMF are observed in the MC, the lowest values of the D _st-index are achieved in the Sheath. Thus, the strongest magnetic storms are induced, on average, during the Sheath rather than during the MC body passage, probably owing to higher pressure in the Sheath. Higher values of nkT, T/T _exp, and β parameters are observed in the CIR and Sheath and lower ones in the MC, which corresponds to the physical essence of these solar wind types.     

Statistical investigation of Heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms: 2

This work is a continuation of investigation [1] of the behavior of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s parameters near the onset of geomagnetic storms for various types of solar wind streams. The data of the OMNI base for the 1976–2000 period are used in the analysis. The types of solar wind streams were determined, and the times of beginning (onsets) of magnetic storms were distributed in solar wind types as follows: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). The growth of variations (hourly standard deviations) of the density and IMF magnitude was observed 5–10 hours before the onset only in the Sheath. For the CIR-, Sheath-and MC-induced storms the dependence between the minimum of the IMF B _z-component and the minimum of the D _st -index, as well as the dependence between the electric field E _y of solar wind and the minimum of the D _st -index are steeper than those for the “uncertain” solar wind type. The steepest D _st vs. B _z dependence is observed in the Sheath, and the steepest D _st vs. E _y dependence is observed in the MC.     

Statistical study of interplanetary condition effect on geomagnetic storms

Based on the archive OMNI data for the period 1976–2000 an analysis has been made of 798 geomagnetic storms with D _st < −50 nT and their interplanetary sources-large-scale types of the solar wind: CIR (145 magnetic storms), Sheath (96), magnetic clouds MC (62), and Ejecta (161). The remaining 334 magnetic storms have no well-defined sources. For the analysis, we applied the double method of superposed epoch analysis in which the instants of the magnetic storm beginning and minimum of D _st index are taken as reference times. The well-known fact that, independent of the interplanetary source type, the magnetic storm begins in 1–2 h after a southward turn of the IMF (B _z < 0) and both the end of the main phase of a storm and the beginning of its recovery phase are observed in 1–2 h after disappearance of the southward component of the IMF is confirmed. Also confirmed is the result obtained previously that the most efficient generation of magnetic storms is observed for Sheath before MC. On the average parameters B _z and E _y slightly vary between the beginning and end of the main phase of storms (minimum of D _st and D _st ^* indices), while D _st and D _st ^* indices decrease monotonically proportionally to integral of B _z and E _y over time. Such a behavior of the indices indicates that the used double method of superposed epoch analysis can be successfully applied in order to study dynamics of the parameters on the main phase of magnetic storms having different duration.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000

Within the framework of the Space Weather program, 25-year data sets for solar X-ray observations, measurements of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the solar wind, and D _st index variations are analyzed to reveal the factors that have had the greatest influence on the development of magnetospheric storms. The correlation between solar flares and magnetic storms practically does not exceed a level of correlation for random processes. In particular, no relation was found between the importance of solar flares and the minimum of the D _st index for storms that could be connected with considered flares by their time delay. The coronal mass ejections (CME; data on these phenomena cover a small part of the interval) result in storms with D _st < –60 nT only in half of the cases. The most geoeffective interplanetary phenomena are the magnetic clouds (MC), which many believe to be interplanetary manifestations of CMEs, and compressions in the region of interaction of slow and fast streams in the solar wind (the so-called Corotating Interaction Region, CIR). They correspond to about two-thirds of all observed magnetic storms. For storms with –100 < D _st < –60 nT, the frequencies of storms from MC and CIR being approximately equal. For strong storms with D _st < – 100 nT, the fraction of storms from MC is considerably higher. The problems of reliable prediction of geomagnetic disturbances from observations of the Sun and conditions in interplanetary space are discussed.     

Radial profile of pressure in a storm ring current as a function of D st

Using satellite data obtained near the equatorial plane during 12 magnetic storms with amplitudes from ?61 down to ?422 nT, the dependences of maximum in L-profile of pressure (L _m) of the ring current (RC) on the current value of D _st are constructed, and their analytical approximations are derived. It is established that function L _m(D _st ) is steeper on the phase of recovery than during the storm’s main phase. The form of the outer edge of experimental radial profiles of RC pressure is studied, and it is demonstrated to correspond to exponential growth of the total energy of RC particles on a given L shell with decreasing L. It is shown that during the storms’ main phase the ratio of plasma and magnetic field pressures at the RC maximum does not practically depend on the storm strength and L _m value. This fact reflects resistance of the Earth’s magnetic field to RC expansion, and testifies that during storms the possibilities of injection to small L are limited for RC particles. During the storms’ recovery phase this ratio quickly increases with increasing L _m, which reflects an increased fraction of plasma in the total pressure balance. It is demonstrated that function L _m(D _st ) is derived for the main phase of storms from the equations of drift motion of RC ions in electrical and magnetic fields, reflecting the dipole character of magnetic field and scale invariance of the pattern of particle convection near the RC maximum. For the recovery phase it is obtained from the Dessler-Parker-Sckopke relationship. The obtained regularities allow one to judge about the radial profile of RC pressure from ground-based magnetic measurements (data on the D _st variation).     

The Fields of Magnetospheric Current Systems on the Earth's Surface in an Interval of the Magnetic Storm Studied under the International Program on Solar–Terrestrial Physics

Using the magnetic storm in January 1997 as an example, we examined the possibilities to employ the magnetospheric field T96 [1, 2] and the dynamic paraboloid model PM of the magnetosphere [3] for modeling the D _st variation. We have revealed the necessity to refine the results of normalizing the free parameters of the model T96 according to the solar wind parameters. The contributions to the D _st variation of magnetic fields of basic large-scale magnetospheric current systems (the field DCF on the magnetopause, the field DR of the ring current, and the field DT in the magnetotail) are estimated for different phases of the storm from model calculations. Possible causes of a discrepancy between the results of modeling D _st using the T96 and PM models are discussed. Special emphasis is made on the ratios of contributions into the D _st variation of the fields of the magnetotail and the ring current in the main phase of magnetic storms and on the contributions to D _st of the fields of various current systems at the recovery phase.     

Some problems of identifying types of large-scale solar wind and their role in the physics of the magnetosphere

This paper discusses the errors in analyzing solar-terrestrial relationships, which result from either disregarding the types of interplanetary drivers in studying the magnetosphere response on their effect or from the incorrect identification of the type of these drivers. In particular, it has been shown that the absence of selection between the Sheath and ICME (the study of so-called CME-induced storms, i.e., magnetic storms generated by CME) leads to errors in the studies of interplanetary conditions of magnetic storm generation, because the statistical analysis has shown that, in the Sheath + ICME sequences, the largest number of storm onsets fell on the Sheath, and the largest number of storms maxima fell at the end of the Sheath and the beginning of the ICME. That is, the situation is observed most frequently when at least the larger part of the main phase of storm generation falls on the Sheath and, in reality, Sheath-induced storms are observed. In addition, we consider several cases in which magnetic storms were generated by corotating interaction regions, whereas the authors attribute them to CME.     

Variations of the magnetopause position versus the level of geomagnetic activity (according to data of the INTERBALL-1 Satellite for 1995–1997)

The variations in the deviation of the observed position of the magnetosphere boundary from its mean position predicted by the Shue at al., 1997 (Sh97) model [7] are studied as a function of the substorm activity level (the AE-index value) and magnetic storm intensity (the value of the corrected D _st ^* index). The results obtained make it possible to state that the amplitude of motion of the magnetospheric boundary on the dayside and in the low-latitude tail is small. It is likely that the position of the boundary is either independent of the AE and D _st ^* indices or this dependence is weak. At the same time, the boundary of the high-latitude tail shifts inward on the average by 1.5R _E with an increase of the AE-index in the case of absence of magnetic storms (contraction of the magnetospheric tail). On the contrary, in the presence of magnetic storms, this boundary shifts outward by up to 3R _E with an increase of the AE-index (inflation of the magnetospheric tail). It is also shown that the boundary of the high-latitude tail moves outward with an increase of the D _st ^* index, both at low substorm activity and in periods of high substorm activity. The amplitude of the outward motion of the high-latitude tail of the magnetosphere is by a factor of two higher for moderate magnetic storms with strong substorms than for moderate magnetic storms with weak substorms.     

Development of auroral electrojets and low-latitude geomagnetic disturbances during strong magnetic storms on November 7–11, 2004

The influence of auroral electojets and solar wind parameters on variations in low-latitude geomagnetic disturbances and D _st during strong magnetic storms on November 7–8, 2004 with D _st ≈ −380 nT and on November 9–10, 2004 with D _st ≈ −300 nT is studied on the basis of global geomagnetic observations. It is found that the impulsive variations of the western electrojet intensity with a duration of Δt ≈ 1–2 h (probably, substorm disturbances) lead to positive low-latitude disturbances of ΔH at Φ′ ≈ 10°–30° and to disturbances of the same durations with an amplitude +ΔH ∼ 30–100 nT at latitudes of the polar cap (Φ′ ≈ 75°–80°). More durable (with Δt ≥ 10 h) convection electrojets whose centers are shifted to latitudes of ∼50°–55° in the process of storm development are the main cause of the increase in negative values of ΔH at low latitudes and D _st . It is shown that meridional dynamics of position of the center of electrojets and the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval is governed by variations (increase or decrease) in the intensity of negative values of the IMF B _z component. It is assumed that in these storms the intensification of the magnetospheric partially ring current closes the circuit to the ionosphere with the help of field-aligned currents at the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval is the main cause of the magnetic field depression at low latitudes.     

Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

On the belt of energetic electrons at <Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis> = 2.75 in the Earth’s magnetosphere

In 1964, during flights of the ELECTRON satellites the narrow belts of energetic electrons (E _e ≈ 6MeV) have been discovered in the Earth’s magnetosphere at L ≈ 2.75. The same structures approximately at the same magnetic shells were found in 2004 by the CORONAS-F and SERVIS-1 satellites. A comparison of the results of these experiments is presented. It is shown that the additional narrow belts of energetic electrons occur after intense magnetic storms (D _st > 100 nT), in our cases, having a double-triple structure. The lifetime of these belts is a few months and their disappearance had a gradual character. The obtained results separated in time by 40 years suggest the constancy of the sources of particles of the Earth’s radiation belts and processes occurring in the magnetosphere, which ensures not only existence of the radiation belts, but also the recurrence of various exotic phenomena in the belts similar to the belt of energetic electrons at the inner magnetic shells.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar,Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 3

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetic storms of the Earth that was started in [9, 10]. Different experimental results on solar-terrestrial physics are analyzed in the study and the effects are determined that arise due to differences in the methods used to analyze the data. The classifications of magnetic storms by the K _p and D _st indices, the solar flare classifications by optical and X-ray observations, and the classifications of different geoeffective interplanetary events are compared and discussed. It is demonstrated that quantitative estimations of the relationships between two types of events often depend on the direction in which the events are compared. In particular, it was demonstrated that the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs (that is, the percentage of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections that result in geomagnetic storms) is 40–50%. Higher values given in some papers were obtained by another method, in which they were defined as the probability of finding candidates for a source of geomagnetic storms among CMEs, and, strictly speaking, these values are not true estimates of the geoeffectiveness. The latter results are also in contrast with the results of the two-stage tracing of the events: first a storm—an interplanetary disturbance, and then an interplanetary disturbance—a CME.     

Study of notches in the Earth’s plasmasphere based on data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">MAGION-5</Emphasis> satellite

Depleted narrow (localized in longitude) regions (field tubes) in the plasmasphere, recently discovered in He⁺ radiation measurements on the IMAGE spacecraft, were first directly observed by the Magion-5 satellite. The low-density regions (notches) occupy <～ 10–30° in longitude and extend from L ～ 2–3 to the plasmasphere boundary in neighboring plasmasphere regions with larger densities. The Magion-5 data give evidence that in the low-density regions temperature is enhanced as compared to the neighboring denser plasmasphere regions. Formation of notches in the plasmasphere is, apparently, associated with AE intensification during weak magnetic storms, while strong magnetic storms usually result in the overall reduction of plasmasphere dimensions. However, even a strong magnetic storm on April 6–7, 2000 (max K _p = 9-and min D _st ～ ?290 nT), but accompanied by an isolated AE impulse, resulted in a density decrease only in the longitudinally limited post-midnight sector of the plasmasphere.     

Sporadic plasma streams and their sources in the period of extraordinary solar activity from October 26 to November 6, 2003

Based on the results of investigations made by various authors applying different semiempirical models, we have formulated the principles of a complex method that allows one to associate sporadic streams of the solar wind (SW) at the Earths orbit with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are their sources on the Sun. This method is applied to an analysis of the events in the interval from October 26 to November 6, 2003. It is shown that, in the period under consideration, which is close to the maximum of solar activity, the majority of CMEs (up to 80% of their total number) turn out to be at the base of a chain of streamers. It is also shown that the component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the main factor of geoeffectiveness for six sporadic SW streams. At the same time, an unusually low value of the index minD_st< -300 nT for two streams with the velocities V_max > 1000 km/s is a consequence of the fact that they are not isolated; i.e., the subsequent stream moves through the medium disturbed by the preceding stream.Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2004, pp. 595–607.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by M. Eselevich, V. Eselevich.     

Simultaneous Response of the Mid-Latitude Ionosphere to a Sudden Commencement of Strong Magnetic Storms

Using the new technology of global GPS detection of ionospheric disturbances (GLOBDET), it is found that a sharp increase of the time derivative of the magnetic field strength during magnetic storms is accompanied by a simultaneous decrease of the mid-latitude total electron content (TEC) over the entire dayside of the globe. The corresponding negative correlation coefficient is no less than 0.8, and the delay relative to the sudden commencement of magnetic storm is about 3–10 min. The effect is especially clearly pronounced for magnetic storms with sudden commencements (SSC). The analysis is carried out for a set of 90 to 300 GPS stations for 10 days (January 6 and April 23, 1998; April 6, June 8, July 13, 14, and 15, 2000; March 31, April 4 and 11, 2001) with various levels of geomagnetic activity (D _st and K _p varied from –6 to –295 nT and from 0 to 9, respectively). The amplitude of the response in the total electron content for the events considered was 0.1–0.4 × 10¹⁶ m^–2 (which is a deviation of 0.2–2.6% from the TEC background value). The velocity of the disturbance motion from the dayside to the nightside was about 10–20 km/s. The results obtained agree with the data of ionospheric parameter measurements conducted earlier by methods with high temporal resolution.     

Peculiarities of long-wave radio bursts from solar flares preceding strong geomagnetic storms

Radio bursts in the frequency range of 100–1500 kHz, recorded in 1997–2000 on the INTERBALL-1 satellite during the solar flares preceding the strong geomagnetic storms with D _st < ?100 nT, are analyzed in this paper. The observed long-wave III-type radio bursts of solar origin at frequencies of 1460 and 780 kHz were characterized by large values of the flux S _f = 10^?15 ?10^?17 W/m² Hz and duration longer than 10 min. The rapid frequency drift of a modulated radio burst continued up to a frequency of 250 kHz, which testified that the exciting agent (a beam of energetic electrons) propagated from the Sun to the Earth. All such flares were characterized by the appearance of halo coronal mass ejections, observed by the LASCO/SOHO, and by the presence of a southward B_z-component of the IMF, measured on the ACE and WIND spacecraft. In addition, shortly after radio bursts, the INTERBALL-1 satellite has recorded the fluxes of energetic electrons with E > 40 keV.     

Energy dependence of the fraction of protons of ionospheric origin in the ring current

The energy dependence of a fraction of ring current protons of ionospheric origin is calculated using the AMPTE/CCE data for a typical strong magnetic storm (max|D _st | ≈ 120 nT). It is shown that this fraction monotonically decreases from ～ 83 to 25–30% with an increase in proton energy from 5 to 315 keV at L = 6–7 (L is the McIlwain parameter) and is 30–40% at energy 40–50 keV corresponding to the maximum of proton energy density at L = 6–7. It is demonstrated that the core of the ring current (L = 3.7–4.7) was enriched by solar protons with E ≈ 10–200 keV during the active phase of the storm (the maximum effect is reached at E ≈ 20–50 keV).     

Magnetospheric signatures of auroral disturbances during the passage of the solar wind’s CIR and sheath regions

Based on Polar satellite data, the authors have studied the auroral disturbances that arose during the passage by the Earth of compressed plasma regions formed in front of high-speed solar wind streams (the CIR region) and in front of magnetic clouds (the Sheath region). The aurorae observed by the Polar satellite possessed basic signatures of a substorm: a localized onset and expansion toward the pole and westward and eastward. However, in these cases they had a very large size in longitude and latitude and occupied a very large area. All disturbances observed by the Polar satellite during the Sheath and CIR regions of the solar wind in December of 1996, in 1997–1998, and in 2000 were analyzed. Eight events during disturbance development in the ionosphere, when the Geotail satellite was located in the plasma sheet of the magnetospheric tail, were selected. It is shown that in all selected cases some typical signatures of substorm development in the magnetospheric tail were observed, namely: (1) fast plasma flows (flow reversal, i.e., from tailwards to Earthwards) and (2) a sharp decrease of the total pressure, which followed an interval of total pressure increase. One can draw the conclusion that in the CIR and Sheath regions with a high solar wind density, substorm disturbances of a specific type are observed, with large latitudinal and longitudinal size (sometimes occupying the entire polar cap).