Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Satellite communications and the Internet: implications for the outer space treaty

The speedily expanding Internet is in the process of transforming the technological, economic, and policy bases for nation-state regulation of telecommunications, including space-based satellite networks. Deployment of the packet-switched Internet has accelerated the liberalization of telecommunications markets and has led to far-reaching regulatory restructuring and policy shifts regarding state ownership and control of networks and information flows. As space-based GMPCS networks become integral parts of the globalizing Internet infrastructure, the state-centric legal paradigm requiring state “authorization and continuing supervision” of space activities by “non-governmental entities” stipulated under Article VI of the OST and associated treaties forming the outer space legal regime will be called increasingly into question. This paper examines the technological, economic/trade, and security issues that question whether the existing state-centric paradigm for regulating Internel-based GMPCS satellite systems will remain in legal phase with emerging liberalized regulatory regimes for terrestrial Internet-based infractructures.     

Structure and thermal control of panel extension satellite (PETSAT)

Panel ExTension SATellite (PETSAT) [S. Nakasuka, Y. Nakamura, Panel extension satellite (PETSAT)—a novel satellite concept consisting of modular, functional and plug-in panels, in: 24th International Symposium on Space Technology and Science, invited talk, 2004-o-2, 2004 [1]] is a satellite which is made of several “functional panels”. Each panel has a special dedicated function and various combinations of different kinds of functional panels enable PETSAT to deal with various mission requirement. Development of PETSAT requires four interface requirements. These are mechanical interface, thermal interface, electrical interface and information interface. In this paper, mechanical interface and thermal interface of PETSAT are especially focused on and introduced. In the development of PETSAT issues about mechanical interface corresponds to panel structure and deployment mechanism. The structure of PETSAT is designed so as to have light weigh, enough space for devices and high stiffness. And deployment system has simple mechanism to avoid vacuum metalizing and improve reliability. On the other hand, approaches for thermal interface [K. Higashi, S. Nakasuka, Y. Sugawara, H. Sahara, K. Koyama, C. Kobayashi, T. Okada, Thermal control of panel extension satellite (PETSAT), in: 25th International Symposium on Space Technology and Science, 2006-j-02, 2006 [2]] are homogenization of temperature within panel and between panels. Homogenization of temperature within panels can be realized by heat lane plate, and that between panels is realized by magnetic fluid loop with magnetic heat pump. These approaches for mechanical and thermal interface are demonstrated in SOHLA-2 [Y. Sugawara, S. Nakasuka, T. Eishima, H. Sahara, Y. Nakamura, K. Koyama, C. Kobayashi, T. Okada, Elemental technologies for realization of panel extension satellite (PETSAT), in: 25th International Symposium on Space Technology and Science, 2006-J-01, 2006 [3]] that is satellite of technology demonstration for PETSAT.     

The navigational experiments on microgravitational space platform “FOTON-M2”

This paper presents the review of results of the navigating experiments which have been carried out during flight of microgravitational space platform (MSP) Foton-M2 in May–June 2005. The brief characteristic of the created MIRAGE–M equipment consisting from magnitometric system and satellite radionavigation receiver is given. The measurements have allowed to restore unguided MSP movement and to estimate a level of microaccelerations (microgravitations) onboard during flight, and have provided precision time-position binding of the research experiments. The data from the equipments transmitted on the telemetering channel have allowed testing the information technologies of virtual support of experiments in space. Flight testing of the equipment has allowed make a conclusion on usefulness of accommodation onboard the small-sized auxiliary navigating system focused for work with users of research experiments. The experiments on MSP Foton-M2 are the development of experiments with MIRAGE equipment carried out in 1999 during flight time of MSP Foton-12 [N.D. Semkin, V.V. Ivanov, V.I. Abrushkin, V.L. Balakin, I.V. Belokonov, K.E. Voronov, The experiments with magnetic fields formed by technical equipment inside Foton-12 spacecraft: the results of the MIRAGE experiments, in: Proceedings of International Conference “Scientific and Technological Experiments on Russian Foton/Bion Recoverable Satellites: Results, Problems and Outlooks”, 25–30 June 2000, pp. 116–122; V.L. Balakin, I.V. Belokonov, V.V. Ivanov, “Determination of motion of spacecraft Foton-12 as a result of magnetic fields measurement in MIRAGE experiment”, pp. 231–238 (published in the same place)].Paper is executed within the framework of the grant of the Russian Fund of Fundamental Researches 06-08-00244.     

Stepping stones to the future: Achieving a sustainable lunar outpost

The current emphasis in the US and internationally on lunar robotic missions is generally viewed as a precursor to possible future human missions to the Moon. As initially framed, the implementation of high level policies such as the US Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) might have been limited to either human lunar sortie missions, or to the testing at the Moon of concepts-of-operations and systems for eventual human missions to Mars [White House, Vision for Space Exploration, Washington, DC, 14 January, 2004. [1]]. However, recently announced (December 2006) US goals go much further: these plans now place at the center of future US—and perhaps international—human spaceflight activities a long-term commitment to an outpost on the Moon.Based on available documents, a human lunar outpost could be emplaced as early as the 2020–2025 timeframe, and would involve numerous novel systems, new technologies and unique operations requirements. As such, substantial investments in research and development (R&D) will be necessary prior to, during, and following the deployment of such an outpost. It seems possible that such an outpost will be an international endeavor, not just the undertaking of a single country—and the US has actively courted partners in the VSE. However, critical questions remain concerning an international lunar outpost. What might such an outpost accomplish? To what extent will “sustainability” be built into the outpost? And, most importantly, what will be the outpost's life cycle cost (LCC)?This paper will explore these issues with a view toward informing key policy and program decisions that must be made during the next several years. The paper will (1) describe a high-level analytical model of a modest lunar outpost, (2) examine (using this model) the parametric characteristics of the outpost in terms of the three critical questions indicated above, and (3) present rough estimates of the relationships of outpost goals and “sustainability” to LCC. The paper will also consider possible outpost requirements for near-term investments in enabling research in light of experiences in past advanced technology programs.     

Portable end-to-end ground system for low-cost mission support

This paper presents a revolutionary architecture of the end-to-end ground system to reduce overall mission support costs. The present ground system of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is costly to operate, maintain, deploy, reproduce, and document. In the present climate of shrinking NASA budgets, this proposed architecture takes on added importance as it should dramatically reduce all of the above costs. Currently, the ground support functions (i.e., receiver, tracking, ranging, telemetry, command, monitor and control) are distributed among several subsystems that are housed in individual rack-mounted chassis. These subsystems can be integrated into one portable laptop system using established Multi Chip Module (MCM) packaging technology and object-based software libraries. The large scale integration of subsystems into a small portable system connected to the World Wide Web (WWW) will greatly reduce operations, maintenance and reproduction costs. Several of the subsystems can be implemented using Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) products further decreasing non-recurring engineering costs. The inherent portability of the system will open up new ways for using the ground system at the “point-of-use” site as opposed to maintaining several large centralized stations. This eliminates the propagation delay of the data to the Principal Investigator (PI), enabling the capture of data in real-time and performing multiple tasks concurrently from any location in the world. Sample applications are to use the portable ground system in remote areas or mobile vessels for real-time correlation of satellite data with earth-bound instruments; thus, allowing near real-time feedback and control of scientific instruments. This end-to-end portable ground system will undoubtedly create opportunities for better scientific observation and data acquisition.     

X-38, CRV and CRV Evolution Program Overview and European Role

The X-38 Project forms part of the “X” prototype vehicle family developed by the United States. Its development was initiated by NASA to prepare the Crew Return Vehicle (CRV). The European participation in the X-38 Program has been significantly extended since the start of the X-38 cooperation in 1997 and is realized by ESA's “Applied Reentry Technology Program” and the German/DLR “Technologies for Future Space Transportation Systems” (TETRA) Project. European contributions to the X-38 Vehicle 201, (V-201) can be found in all technical key areas. The orbital flight and reentry with the X-38 V-201 will conclude the X-38 project in 2002.The CRV will be used from about mid-2005 as ’ambulance‘, ’lifeboat‘ or as alternate return vehicle for the crew of the International Space Station. Recognizing the very productive and mutually beneficial cooperation established on X-38, NASA and ESA have decided to continue this cooperation into the development of the operational CRV. The Phase C/D will be completed shortly after the Critical Design Review, scheduled for August 2002. The CRV production phase will start in October 2002 and will cover production of four CRV vehicles, ending in 2006.Based on the objective to identify a further evolution potential of the CRV towards a Crew Cargo Transfer Vehicle (CCTV), NASA has implemented upgrade studies in the CRV Phase C/D.     

Design of meo constellations for galileo: towards a “design to cost” approach

GALILEO aims at involving Europe in a new generation of satellite navigation services. In the context of the phase A of this programme, many system options are still widely open: detailed requirements, constraints and hypotheses are not yet fully stabilised.In order to design a satellite constellation satisfying civil aviation and other users needs in this early stage of the system definition, it is necessary not only to take into account classical performance aspects, such as accuracy and availability of accuracy, but also cost constraints. The paper describes the design and dimensioning method which has led ALCATEL to propose a set of MEO constellations in the frame of the GALILEO project for ESA. It especially places emphasis upon the sensitivity of the system design to numerous parameters as well as its sensitivity to performance requirements.Potential candidate constellations obviously need to meet given performance specifications which are determined by operational aspects such as: satellite reliability, maintenance strategy (spare in orbit, launch on schedule, launch on need), deployment strategy (launcher choice, etc.). The estimated cost of a potential solution is mainly derived from the number of satellites and the deployment/maintenance strategy, but it is representative of the whole life-cycle of the constellation. Furthermore, the exhibited solution shall be “as robust as” possible to requirement or assumption changes. So, it should be a baseline solution that could be easily updated in order to take into account small upgrades.This has led to the performance of some trend analyses to understand the actual influence of some constraints or requirements on the system design, and to see how initial requirements can be efficiently relaxed in order to obtain the maximum system cost diminution for a minimum constraint relaxation. This will be very useful, if cost reduction is necessary, to quickly propose alternative or sub-solutions to the baseline one.     

Economics of satellite communications systems

This paper is partly a tutorial, telling systematically how one goes about calculating the total annual costs of a satellite communications system, and partly the expression of some original ideas on the choice of parameters so as to minimize these costs.The calculation of costs can be divided into two broad categories. The first is technical and is concerned with estimating what particular equipment will cost and what will be the annual expense to maintain and operate it. One starts in the estimation of any new system by listing the principal items of equipment, such as satellites, earth stations of various sizes and functions, telemetry and tracking equipment and terrestrial interfaces, and then estimating how much each item will cost. Methods are presented for generating such estimates, based on a knowledge of the gross parameters, such as antenna size, coverage area, transmitter power and information rate. These parameters determine the system performance and it is usually possible, knowing them, to estimate the costs of the equipment rather well. Some formulae based on regression analyses are presented. Methods are then given for estimating closely related expenses, such as maintenance and operation, and then an approximate method is developed for estimating terrestrial interconnection costs.It is pointed out that in specific cases when tariff and geographical information are available, it is usually better to work with specific data, but nonetheless it is often desirable, especially in global system estimating, to approximate these interconnect costs without recourse to individual tariffs. The procedure results in a set of costs for the purchase of equipment and its maintenance, and a schedule of payments. Some payments will be incurred during the manufacture of the satellite and before any systems operation, but many will not be incurred until the system is no longer in use, e.g. incentives. In any case, with the methods presented in the first section, one arrives at a schedule of costs and payments for all the items and the years in which they will be incurred. The second category of costing problems is one of financing or engineering economics. All the costs are first “present valued” to some reference period using rates of return appropriate to the particular situation.One finally arrives at sets of annual costs which can be used as the basis for setting lease costs or revenue requirements and tariffs. The correspondence between methods using discounted rates of return and capital recovery formulae on one hand and those using various depreciation schedules, such as is typical of regulated industries on the other hand, is discussed.The remainder of the paper is devoted to discussing the relationship between critical parameters, such as replacement schedules, design lifetime, satellite power and Earth station antenna size, and the overall costs.It is shown that optima for these parameters may exist and can be calculated. In particular, the optimization of satellite replacement schedules to minimize the present value of total investment over a very long period is presented, along with simplified versions of the theory suitable for system planning.The choice of EIRP is also discussed and a procedure for choosing the value that minimizes the costs is shown.     

NASA''s small spacecraft technology initiative “Clark” spacecraft

The Small Satellite Technology Initiative (SSTI) is a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program to demonstrate smaller, high technology satellites constructed rapidly and less expensively. Under SSTI, NASA funded the development of “Clark,” a high technology demonstration satellite to provide 3-m resolution panchromatic and 15-m resolution multispectral images, as well as collect atmospheric constituent and cosmic x-ray data. The 690-Ib. satellite, to be launched in early 1997, will be in a 476 km, circular, sun-synchronous polar orbit. This paper describes the program objectives, the technical characteristics of the sensors and satellite, image processing, archiving and distribution. Data archiving and distribution will be performed by NASA Stennis Space Center and by the EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA.     

Optimal control of a spinning double-pyramid Earth-pointing tethered formation

The dynamics and control of a tethered satellite formation for Earth-pointing observation missions is considered. For most practical applications in Earth orbit, a tether formation must be spinning in order to maintain tension in the tethers. It is possible to obtain periodic spinning solutions for a triangular formation whose initial conditions are close to the orbit normal. However, these solutions contain significant deviations of the satellites on a sphere relative to the desired Earth-pointing configuration. To maintain a plane of satellites spinning normal to the orbit plane, it is necessary to utilize “anchors”. Such a configuration resembles a double-pyramid. In this paper, control of a double-pyramid tethered formation is studied. The equations of motion are derived in a floating orbital coordinate system for the general case of an elliptic reference orbit. The motion of the satellites is derived assuming inelastic tethers that can vary in length in a controlled manner. Cartesian coordinates in a rotating reference frame attached to the desired spin frame provide a simple means of expressing the equations of motion, together with a set of constraint equations for the tether tensions. Periodic optimal control theory is applied to the system to determine sets of controlled periodic trajectories by varying the lengths of all interconnecting tethers (nine in total), as well as retrieval and simple reconfiguration trajectories. A modal analysis of the system is also performed using a lumped mass representation of the tethers.     

Prospects for commercial satellite services at Q- and V-bands

Some 16 proposed new satellite systems operating at 36 to 46 GHz (Q-band) and 46 to 56 GHz (V-band) have been proposed to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission by U.S. companies. Of these. 14 are intended to provide global, or nearly global, service. One is intended for U.S. domestic service, and one is a package to provide additional store-and-forward capability on an earlier proposed “Little LEO” system. This paper provides a brief summary of the 14 global systems, which for the most part are designed to exploit the wide band of frequencies available for services such as multimedia distribution and Internet access.

Systems are proposed that would use geostationary orbit, medium earth orbit, low earth orbit, and Molniya orbit satellites, and in some cases combinations of two of these orbits. Most of the new systems propose to employ new technologies such as multiple narrow spot-beam antennas, onboard demodulation and routing of traffic between beams, intersatellite links, and in some cases scanning beams to continuously illuminate the service area as the satellite flies by.

Some of the difficulties involved in fielding systems at these high frequencies arise from the propagation impairments that can be expected and the high cost of solid-state power devices for user terminals, which will drive up costs. It is concluded that, while the large amount of bandwidth (3 GHz) proposed by the FCC for these systems is attractive, few if any are likely to be built while spectrum remains available at Ka-band.     

Innovations for competitiveness: European views on “better-faster-cheaper”

The paper elaborates on “ lessons learned” from two recent ESA workshops, one focussing on the role of Innovation in the competitiveness of the space sector and the second on technology and engineering aspects conducive to better, faster and cheaper space programmes. The paper focuses primarily on four major aspects, namely:

1. a) the adaptations of industrial and public organisations to the global market needs;

2. b) the understanding of the bottleneck factors limiting competitiveness;

3. c) the trends toward new system architectures and new engineering and production methods;

4. d) the understanding of the role of new technology in the future applications.

Under the pressure of market forces and the influence of many global and regional players, applications of space systems and technology are becoming more and more competitive. It is well recognised that without major effort for innovation in industrial practices, organisations, R&D, marketing and financial approaches the European space sector will stagnate and loose its competence as well as its competitiveness. It is also recognised that a programme run according to the “better, faster, cheaper” philosophy relies on much closer integration of system design, development and verification, and draws heavily on a robust and comprehensive programme of technology development, which must run in parallel and off-line with respect to flight programmes.

A company's innovation capabilities will determine its future competitive advantage (in time, cost, performance or value) and overall growth potential. Innovation must be a process that can be counted on to provide repetitive, sustainable, long-term performance improvements. As such, it needs not depend on great breakthroughs in technology and concepts (which are accidental and rare). Rather, it could be based on bold evolution through the establishment of know-how, application of best practices, process effectiveness and high standards, performance measurement, and attention to customers and professional marketing. Having a technological lead allows industry to gain a competitive advantage in performance, cost and opportunities. Instrumental to better competitiveness is an R&D effort based on the adaptation of high technology products, capable of capturing new users, increasing production, decreasing the cost and delivery time and integrating high level of intelligence, information and autonomy. New systems will have to take in to account from the start what types of technologies are being developed or are already available in other areas outside space, and design their system accordingly. The future challenge for “faster, better, cheaper” appears to concern primarily “cost-effective”, performant autonomous spacecraft, “cost-effective”, reliable launching means and intelligent data fusion technologies and robust software serving mass- market real time services, distributed via EHF bands and Internet.

In conclusion, it can be noticed that in the past few years new approaches have considerably enlarged the ways in which space missions can be implemented. They are supported by true innovations in mission concepts, system architecture, development and technologies, in particular for the development of initiatives based on multi-mission mini-satellites platforms for communication and Earth observation missions. There are also definite limits to cost cutting (such as lowering heads counts and increasing efficiency), and therefore the strategic perspective must be shifted from the present emphasis on cost-driven enhancement to revenue-driven improvements for growth. And since the product life-cycle is continuously shortening, competitiveness is linked very strongly with the capability to generate new technology products which enhance cost/benefit performance.     

The overredundant spacecraft—A competitive approach to future telecommunication satellites

Present operational space telecommunication systems are based on simultaneous availability of more than one satellite on orbit, mainly a spare satellite in addition to the operational one.Considering the costs associated to the delivery of extra flight models and to extra launchers, the question is asked whether it would not be advantageous to launch a very limited number of “overredundant” spacecraft instead of several standard satellites.The paper gives main conditions of reliability, size and redundancy concept under which an “overredundant” spacecraft could be a competitive approach to future operational systems.     

Flight demonstration of new thruster and green propellant technology on the PRISMA satellite

The concept of a storable liquid monopropellant blend for space applications based on ammonium dinitramide (ADN) was invented in 1997, within a co-operation between the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI). The objective was to develop a propellant which has higher performance and is safer than hydrazine. The work has been performed under contract from the Swedish National Space Board and ESA. The progress of the development has been presented in several papers since 2000.ECAPS, a subsidiary of the Swedish Space Corporation was established in 2000 with the aim to develop and market the novel “high performance green propellant” (HPGP) technology for space applications. The new technology is based on several innovations and patents w.r.t. propellant formulation and thruster design, including a high temperature resistant catalyst and thrust chamber.The first flight demonstration of the HPGP propulsion system will be performed on PRISMA. PRISMA is an international technology demonstration program with Swedish Space Corporation as the Prime Contractor.This paper describes the performance, characteristics, design and verification of the HPGP propulsion system for PRISMA. Compatibility issues related to using a new propellant with COTS components is also discussed. The PRISMA mission includes two satellites in LEO orbit were the focus is on rendezvous and formation flying. One of the satellites will act as a “target” and the main spacecraft performs rendezvous and formation flying maneuvers, where the ECAPS HPGP propulsion system will provide delta-V capability.The PRISMA CDR was held in January 2007. Integration of the flight propulsion system is about to be finalized.The flight opportunity on PRISMA represents a unique opportunity to demonstrate the HPGP propulsion system in space, and thus take a significant step towards its use in future space applications. The launch of PRISMA scheduled to 2009.     

High performance satellite networks

The high performance satellite communications networks of the future will have to be interoperable with terrestrial fiber cables. These satellite networks will evolve from narrowband analogue formats to broadband digital transmission schemes, with protocols, algorithms and transmission architectures that will segment the data into uniform cells and frames, and then transmit these data via larger and more efficient synchronous optional (SONET) and asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) networks that are being developed for the information “superhighway”. These high performance satellite communications and information networks are required for modern applications, such as electronic commerce, digital libraries, medical imaging, distance learning, and the distribution of science data.

In order for satellites to participate in these information superhighway networks, it is essential that they demonstrate their ability to: (1) operate seamlessly with heterogeneous architectures and applications, (2) carry data at SONET rates with the same quality of service as optical fibers, (3) qualify transmission delay as a parameter not a problem, and (4) show that satellites have several performance and economic advantages over fiber cable networks.     

Stability and control of flexible satellites—II control

This is the second part of the investigation, the first part being “stability”. It is demonstrated that by monitoring the deformations of the flexible elements of a satellite, the effectiveness of the satellite control system can be increased considerably with the same given control system. A simple model of a flexible satellite was analyzed in the first part of this work. The same model is used here for digital computer simulations.     

国外对地观测卫星技术发展

充分调研了世界各主要航天国家的对地观测卫星技术,结合其发展过程与现状,重点从观测需求、卫星性能、卫星系统模式以及研制模式等方面加以分析,总结其技术发展特点,为我国对地观测卫星技术的战略发展提供参考。