Assessment of safety in space power wiring systems

Wiring system failures have resulted from arc propagation in the wiring harnesses of many aircraft and space vehicles. These failures occur when the insulation becomes conductive upon the initiation of an arc. In some cases, the conductive path of the carbon arc track displays a high enough resistance such that the current is limited, and therefore may be difficult to detect using conventional circuit protection. Often, such wiring failures are not simply the result of insulation failure but are due to a combination of wiring system factors. Inadequate circuit protection, unreliable system designs, and careless maintenance procedures can contribute to a wiring system failure. This paper approaches the problem with respect to the overall wiring system, in order to determine what steps can be taken to improve the reliability, maintainability, and safety of space power systems. Power system technologies, system designs, and maintenance procedures which have contributed to past wiring system failures are discussed. New technologies, design processes, and management techniques which may lead to improved wiring system safety are introduced     

某型飞机火控系统故障诊断测试仪的设计

针对某型战机火控系统在维护保障上存在检测仪器功能单一、通用性差、检测效率低、可靠性不高等问题,研制了基于故障树分析法与专家系统相结合的某型飞机火控系统故障诊断测试仪.文中以火控系统不工作为顶事件,建立了故障树,并对故障树作了定性分析.该测试仪有效克服了机载火控系统故障诊断中传统的数据采集、分析、处理及决策控制方法的不足,结果表明,故障树分析法是机载火控系统故障诊断的一种有效方法.     

Using PoF models to predict system reliability considering failure collaboration

Existing Physics-of-Failure-based (PoF-based) system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption, which overlooks the dependency among the compo-nents. In this paper, a new type of dependency, referred to as failure collaboration, is introduced and considered in reliability predictions. A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration. Based on the developed model, the Bisection-based Reliability Analysis Method (BRAM) is exploited to calculate the system reliabil-ity. The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator (HSA). The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.     

复杂退化系统的组合维修策略优化

由于现有视情维修研究中没有考虑定期维护的影响,无法准确反映定期维护下的系统性能退化规律,因而不利于合理制定定期维护与视情维修组合的维修策略。针对该问题,重点开展了该组合维修策略下的性能退化建模与维修决策研究。通过结合组合维修策略下的性能退化特点,从失效机理出发,利用复合Poisson过程建立了性能退化模型,并通过退化强度函数描述了仅恢复累积性能退化量而不改变性能退化规律的维修效果。同时,分析了该条件下的可靠度函数,说明了其具有阶梯型变化和突变性的特性。基于性能退化模型,建立了长期运行条件下以费用率最低为目标、失效风险为约束的组合维修决策优化模型,并求解确定了最优维护周期和预防性维修阈值。通过数值分析,描述了费用率随维修策略值变化的规律,说明了优化解的存在性。同时,通过与系统自身寿命规律比较,说明采用该优化模型,可以有效地延长系统的使用时间,实时控制失效概率,确保其具有较高的安全等级,进而有效地降低维修费用。     

飞机故障的运行后果及成本分析方法

系统故障的运行后果分析技术是飞机运行可靠性分析的重要分支,可为维修任务的成本效益分析提供有力支撑。为了研究飞机系统故障对运行后果及成本的影响,从系统故障运行后果的相关性分析入手,首先,梳理飞机系统故障类型和放行情况对运行后果的影响;然后,结合航线维修现行做法及事件树思想提出一种支持评估飞机系统故障的运行后果及其相关成本的方法,建立基于飞机系统故障的运行后果与成本评估模型;最后,以某型号飞机燃油系统为例,验证所提方法的可行性和适用性。结果表明：本文所提方法合理有效,可为评估故障运行后果提供支持,为飞机的设计、运行和维护提供一定的参考。     

Reliability evaluation of PMS considering coupling effect of functional and physical dependency

Aviation and aerospace system are typical Phased-Mission Systems(PMSs) featured with varying configuration, phased load condition and cross phase failure correlation. The coupling effect of Functional Dependency(FDEP) and Physical Dependency(PDEP) has a unique influence on the failure behavior of PMS. In this article, the coupling effect is analyzed, and the degradation of components is modeled with the positive drift wiener process, in which the drift coefficient is related to environmental con...     

Failure behavior analysis of phased-mission systems considering functional and physical isolation effects

Phased-Mission Systems(PMS) are widely applied in aerospace, telecommunication and intelligent systems for multiple, consecutive and non-overlapping phases of missions. The phasedependent stresses and system structure cause some difficulties to the reliability analysis of PMSs.In this paper, we analyze the physical isolation effects on the degradation speeds and across-phase damage accumulations of failure mechanisms. And, some corresponding reliability and unreliability formulas are derived. Be...     

Real-time and reliability analysis of time-triggered CAN-bus

Real-time performance and reliability are two most important issues in applications of time-triggered controller area network (CAN) bus systems at present. A scheduling matrix of time-triggered CAN-bus system is established using average-loading algorithm. Periodic messages are guaranteed to transmit without delay by distributing independent transmission windows within the system matrix. Considering the traditional CAN-bus transmission mechanism and the time-triggered feature, an algorithm is improved to calculate the worst-case delay of event-triggered messages in time-triggered CAN-bus systems. The failure probability is calculated for event-triggered messages whose worst-case delay exceeds their deadlines. Different levels of redundant structures of CAN-bus circuits are analyzed and the maintenance management is proposed to improve the system reliability. Finally, the reliabilities of different structures are calculated and the influences of maintenance on the system reliability are analyzed.     

考虑两种失效竞争的多状态冷贮备系统可靠性模型

针对装备系统中多状态工作部件存在退化失效与突发失效竞争的情况，以冷贮备系统为研究对象，假设系统内3个维修台可分别提供预防性维修与两种不同类型的修复性维修，采用随机检测策略，系统性能水平在一定范围内退化时进行预防性维修，部件完全退化失效时进行退化失效修复性维修，而突发失效时进行突发失效修复性维修；利用PH （Phase-type）分布描述模型中各类随机时间变量，外部冲击的到达则采用PH更新过程描述，建立了考虑退化失效与突发失效的多状态冷贮备系统可靠性模型。最后通过算例验证了模型的适用性，演示了预防性维修阈值以及三类维修速率对系统可靠性的影响。     

Reliability and safety analysis of redundant vehicle management computer system

Redundant techniques are widely adopted in vehicle management computer （VMC） to ensure that VMC has high reliability and safety. At the same time, it makes VMC have special characteristics, e.g., failure correlation, event simultaneity, and failure self-recovery. Accordingly, the reliability and safety analysis to redundant VMC system （RVMCS） becomes more difficult. Aimed at the difficulties in RVMCS reliability modeling, this paper adopts generalized stochastic Petri nets to establish the reliability and safety models of RVMCS. Then this paper analyzes RVMCS oper- ating states and potential threats to flight control system. It is verified by simulation that the reli- ability of VMC is not the product of hardware reliability and software reliability, and the interactions between hardware and software faults can reduce the real reliability of VMC obviously. Furthermore, the failure undetected states and false alarming states inevitably exist in RVMCS due to the influences of limited fault monitoring coverage and false alarming probability of fault mon- itoring devices （FMD）. RVMCS operating in some failure undetected states will produce fatal threats to the safety of flight control system. RVMCS operating in some false alarming states will reduce utility of RVMCS obviously. The results abstracted in this paper can guide reliable VMC and efficient FMD designs. The methods adopted in this paper can also be used to analyze other intelligent systems＇ reliability.     

叶片振动可靠性评估方法研究

提出一种用于发动机叶片振动可靠性评估方法,该方法基于叶片共振转速图（Ｃａｍｐｂｅｌ）,引入概率故障树ＰＦＴＡ（ＰｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙＦａｕｌｔＴｒｅｅＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓ）概念,改善了传统评估方法。其目的是为发展叶片共振识别和可靠性评估的有效方法。在Ｃａｍｐｂｅｌ图上,叶片共振系统定义由工作转速点和附近的多个共振点组成。利用ＰＦＴＡ分析该系统能获得更多的叶片振动信息。该方法发展了常规的叶片振动可靠性设计方法,为叶片设计和叶片振动疲劳排故中改善叶片振动特性提供有益的工程评估方法。     

三种系统可靠性评估方法的比较与分析

故障树、故障Petri网和贝叶斯网络是评估系统可靠性、安全性的三种重要模型。其中,故障树在工程中应用最广,而后两种模型其各自具有不可替代的优点,可以弥补故障树在实际应用中的不足。在介绍三种模型的基础上,通过对故障树向故障Petri网转化方法、故障树向贝叶斯网络转化方法的研究,给出描述三种模型的典型逻辑关系等价结构图的表格,揭示三种模型的内在联系。结合该表,提出故障Petri网向贝叶斯网络的转化方法。同时,利用上述三种模型对导弹发动机故障进行对比分析,结果表明故障Petri网使故障传播过程一目了然,而通过故障Petri网络或故障树转化而来的等价贝叶斯网络可计算出更多定量结果。     

Digital Computation Makes AFCS More Reliable

In airline service the reliability of a system is more than the confirmed failures for the system; it is the total removal experience of the system. Thus, the reliability of a system lies not only in the piece part failure rates, but also in the capability to verify and isolate failures. The application of digital technology brings several significant reliability improvements to automatic flight control systems (AFCS) when compared to contemporary analog systems. These advantages are demonstrated by the experience of the digital air data computer (DADC) of the DC-10 and the digital AFCS of the JA-37 Viggen. Experience with this equipment is reviewed, and the results are interpreted in terms of projections for airline DAFCS reliability. The digital system built-in test implemented by a stored program and the central processor gives a system integrity and dispatch reliability unequaled by analog systems. This high-integrity self-test reduces removal rates by giving line personnel a trustworthy tool and more complete automatic test processes for verifying maintenance actions. Digital circuit technology is directly suitable to largescale integrated circuits (LSIC) which reduce piece part counts and improve LRU reliability. Digital circuits are less subject to drift and the attendant difficulty to detect failures. These factors, coupled with the inherent high-integrity self-test, provide the basis for a significant improvement in reliability by the use of a digital automatic flight control system.     

Large Capacity Magnetic Bubble Memories for Government Applications

Magnetic bubble memories are an all solid-state, nonvolatile technology that offers a viable alternative to rotating electromechanical memory systems. Rotating memory systems such as magnetic disks, tapes, or drums are often not practical in government applications because of maintenance, reliability, and security problems. Bubble memories offer improvements in the required system reliability for these applications and lend themselves to a modular memory design not possible with mechanical systems. A 244 Mbit memory system is described which is general purpose in design, has a block random access architecture, and has demonstrated its high reliability.     

On measurement of operational security

Ideally, a measure of the security of a system should capture quantitatively the intuitive notion of “the ability of the system to resist attack.” That is, it should be operational, reflecting the degree to which the system can be expected to remain free of security breaches under particular conditions of operation (including attack). Instead, current security levels at best merely reflect the extensiveness of safeguards introduced during the design and development of a system. Whilst we might expect a system developed to a higher level than another to exhibit “more secure behavior” in operation, this cannot be guaranteed; more particularly, we cannot infer what the actual security behavior will be from knowledge of such a level. In the paper we discuss similarities between reliability and security with the intention of working toward measures of “operational security” similar to those that we have for reliability of systems. Very informally, these measures could involve expressions such as the rate of occurrence of security breaches, or the probability that a specified “mission” can be accomplished without a security breach. This new approach is based on the analogy between system failure and security breach, but it raises several issues which invite empirical investigation. We briefly describe a pilot experiment that we have conducted to judge the feasibility of collecting data to examine these issues     

TWT Reliability in Space

The question of Traveling Wave Tube (TWT) reliability in space poses some unique problems. First, since tube reliability has a tremendous impact on system design and overall cost, if problems do occur, they are highly visible. Second, attaining high reliability is made difficult by small production runs and short delivery schedules. Finally, the now-common 10 year life specification is combined with state-of-the-art performance requirements, forcing design changes and adding risk. To meet these requirements, we emphasize certain design and manufacturing ground rules. When orbital TWT problems do occur, our experience is that they are usually caused by infant mortality, not wearout. Data based on operation in space show that with close attention to the details of design and manufacturing, reliability exceeding the 500,000 hours MTBF normally specified is achieved. Traveling Wave Tube reliability and overall performance have a tremendous impact on system design and the overall cost of a satellite. TWT reliability determines the amount of redundancy needed to meet a given satellite mission objective. Increased redundancy means increased complexity and weight of the spacecraft. The TWTs, with their Electronic Power Conditioners, also dissipate over 80% of all spacecraft power. Increased tube efficiency will therefore simplify matters all around. Because of the critical impact of tubes, if technical problems do occur, they are highly visible at the system level, where rumors of failure spread like wildfire in the fairly small space community. Attaining high reliability is difficult because of the many conflicting requirements.     

可靠性及动态维修成本下的定期预防维修研究

良好的设备维修策略对企业的竞争力有着重要的影响。设备维修需要考虑可靠性和维修成本的问题。首先,假设设备的故障率服从威布尔分布,设备的预防维修成本会随着维修次数的增加而增加;随后构建了可靠性水平有限且预防维修成本变化情况下的定期预防维修模型,在使总成本最小的前提下,求出了最优的预防维修次数和预防维修周期;最后以实例验证了模型的有效性。     

对 GJB/Z77 多台同型产品增长模型的分析

GJB/Z77的附录A中,阐述了如何应用AMSAA模型进行多台同型产品的可靠性增长,给出了趋势检验、参数估计和拟合优度检验的方法,并提供了一个实例。对该模型进行了分析,指出GJB/Z77中存在的错误。     

A user's view of the new MIL-STD-883 procedure 5012

The MIL-STD-883 Procedure 5012, Fault Coverage Measurement for Digital Microcircuits, is reviewed. Procedure 5012 specifies a standard fault set and fault coverage calculation techniques. The motivation and benefits of the standard are detailed. The effect of the standard fault set is studied by analysis and presentation of test case data. An actual example illustrates the costs of generating a compliant fault coverage report. US Department of Defense contractors, fault simulation developers, and semiconductor vendors are encouraged to create the necessary supporting infrastructure for the new standard     

余度结构和余度管理方式对飞行控制系统可靠性的影响

在余度飞行控制系统特别是主动控制系统的研究中,为了探讨余度系统的设计优化问题,需要从可靠性预测和分析,余度管理策略和管理方式以及系统部件的电路学等多方面着手。这些复杂的研究内容可以概括为